• 제목/요약/키워드: Time Lag Approach

검색결과 72건 처리시간 0.036초

아파트 구매에 관한 소비자의 구매행동과 의식 특성 - 일본 신규 분양아파트 구매자를 대상으로 - (Characteristics of Consumers' Purchasing Behavior and Conscious : Focused on Condominium Housing in Japan)

  • 최정민;강순주
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2005
  • Recently there has been an apparent paradigm shift in housing market towards customer oriented approach. In the midst of increasing competition, there is indeed a need to better understand of customers, and to quickly respond to their individual needs and wants. In this background, this paper aims to show a scientific marketing approach in housing industries, and to provide general information on Japanese condominium housing market in terms of a brief historical overview and recent market situation. Results include that there exists an about twenty year time lag in the start of condominium housing supply in the private sector between Korea and Japan. Besides, more efforts should be paid to the diversity or locality of the supplied housing type or design, especially condominium apartments in Korea compared to those of Japan. Among others this paper emphasized on illustrating the actual applications of analysis on consumers' purchasing behavior and latent conscious coupled with some statistical techniques, which may lead marketers or decision makers to forecast more accurate customers demands.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Household Debt in China

  • CANAKCI, Mehmet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.653-663
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    • 2021
  • There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn't have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.

ARDL 시계열 모형을 활용한 패션 브랜드의 매출 예측 분석 -패션 브랜드와 광고모델의 웹 검색량, 정보량, 가격할인 프로모션을 중심으로- (Fashion Brand Sales Forecasting Analysis Using ARDL Time Series Model -Focusing on Brand and Advertising Endorser's Web Search Volume, Information Amount, and Brand Promotion-)

  • 서주연;김효정;박민정
    • 한국의류학회지
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.868-889
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    • 2022
  • Fashion companies are using a big data approach as a key strategic analysis to predict and forecast sales. This study investigated the effectiveness of the past sales, web search volume, information amount, brand promotion, and the advertising endorser on the sales forecasting model. The study conducted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series model using the internal and external social big data of a national fashion brand. Results indicated that the brand's past sales, search volume, promotion, and amount of advertising endorser information amount significantly affected the sales forecast, whereas the brand's advertising endorser search volume and information amount did not significantly influence the sales forecast. Moreover, the brand's promotion had the highest correlation with sales forecasting. This study adds to information-searching behavior theory by measuring consumers' brand involvement. Last, this study provides digital marketers with implications for developing profitable marketing strategies on the basis of consumers' interest in the brand and advertising endorser.

길리씨 접근법을 통한 협골궁 골절의 정복 (Reduction of Isolated Zygomatic Arch Fractures with Gillies Approach)

  • 신동근;김영수;심우섭;정한진
    • Korean Journal of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery
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    • 제61권11호
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    • pp.588-592
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    • 2018
  • Background and Objectives The incidence of facial bone fracture is increasing. The zygomatic bone, due to its anatomical prominence, is the second most common site of all facial bone fractures. In this study, we present the clinical experiences of zygomatic arch fracture in a tertiary hospital and introduce the Gillies approach for reduction and its outcome results. Subjects and Method We collected data from retrospective chart reviews of patients who underwent surgeries from 2010 to 2017 for zygomatic arch fractures at Chungbuk National University Hospital. Data were analyzed according to age, gender, cause of trauma, location of trauma, and clinical symptoms including trismus. All surgery was performed under general anesthesia and via the use of Gillies approach. The result of surgery was evaluated by postoperative facial computed tomography. Results Sixteen patients underwent surgery for zygomatic arch fracture. The patients had the average age of 41.3 years, a male predominance of 15:1 and physical assault as the most common cause of trauma. The time lag between injury and surgical reduction was 5.5 days. The surgical outcomes were assessed 'good' in 14 cases and 'moderate' in one case. Patients who had trismus preoperatively were resolved of it in all cases after operation. Postoperative complications were absent. Conclusion The Gillies approach proved to be a relatively easy, safe, and reliable method, and its surgical outcomes was satisfactory in our experiences.

Effect of inwards FDI on new venture creation, industrialization and economic growth in Russia: A timeseries ARDL approach

  • Kristina, Yuryeva;He, Zhengquan
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2022
  • This research aimed to clarify the impacts casted by inwards FDI on New venture creation, industrialization, and the economic growth of Russia. For all of these variables, data was taken about Russia from the site of The World Bank, and the selected duration was from 1995 to 2019. The total duration of the data taken was from 24 years. The time duration was well enough for applying the A.R.D.L. approach to the time series data of the study. This research used the unit root test to know the presence of the unit root for each variable, the lag order selection was made for the data, the bounds cointegration test was also applied, and ARDL Model was used to know about the different effects. With the help of the results derived, it was observed that the impact of private sector investment on new venture creation is significant. In contrast, foreign direct investment and research and development (R&D) effects on new venture creation are insignificant. It was also observed from the results that the impact of R&D on industrialization in Russia is significant, while the effects of FDI and the impact of private sector investment on industrialization in Russia is insignificant. We have fund that the effect of FDI and the impact of private sector investment on the economic growth of Russia is significant. In contrast, the impact of R&D is insignificant to the economic growth of Russia. The study is of great significance as it has raised the importance of R&D for industrialization, FDI, and PSI for economic growth and new venture creation for developing countries.

제제헝태에 따른 이프리플라본의 생체이용률 비교 (Comparative Bioavailability of Ipriflavone by Pharmaceutical Preparation Types)

  • 정제교;강길선;이종문;신호철;이해방
    • Journal of Pharmaceutical Investigation
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2000
  • Bioavailability of ipriflavone (3-phenyl-7-isopropoxy-4H-I-benzopyran-4-one, IP), an antiosteoporotic drug with poor water-solubility, was studied for various types of pharmaceutical preparation in SD rats. The IP preparation types included (1) intact IP, (2) freezer milled IP (FIP), (3) freezer milled IP physically mixed with freezer milled poly-N-vinylpyrrolidone (PVP) (FIP+FPVP) and (4) spray-dried IP with PVP (SIP). Upon oral administration, SIP showed significantly higher absorption and elimination half-lives and the lag time $(t_{lag})$ than those of FIP+FPVP (approximately 2-fold). These results may be due to a sustained releasing effect of IP in the gastrointestinal tract by spray-drying with PVP. The $C_{max}$ of SIP was about 2 and 10 times higher than those of FIP+FPVP and FIP, respectively. The AUC of SIP was about 6 times higher than that of FIP+FPVP and 60 times that of FIP. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed that SIP consisted of the finest particle size and minimal aggregation than other IP preparations. It is concluded that the IP formula prepared by the spray-drying method with PVP is the most effective approach to the improvement of bioavailability of IP.

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The Effect of Banking Industry Development on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study in Jordan

  • ALMAHADIN, Hamed Ahmad;AL-GASAYMEH, Anwar;ALRAWASHDEH, Najed;ABU SIAM, Yousef
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to investigate whether economic growth is elevated by banking industry development in Jordan. The study adopts time-series econometric methodologies, which comprise the bounds testing approach within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the conditional causality analysis. Consistent with the assumptions of the adopted methodology, the study utilized annual time-series data for a relatively long period of thirty-nine years, between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results show that Jordan's economic growth is strongly responsive in respect to any changes in banking industry development. Also, the results reveal the harmful impact of rising lending interest rate; as this rate increases, economic growth will decrease. The findings are in line with the conceptual arguments of the supply-leading hypothesis, which confirmed that banking development is considered as one of the main pillars that have stimulating effects on economic growth. The evidence of the current study may provide important implications for policymakers and bankers. Those professionals should work to maintain a stable regulatory system that enhances the banking system function in activating economic growth. Also, a considerable focus should be placed on designing a steady interest rate policy to avoid the inherently undesirable impacts of high-interest rates on the Jordanian economy.

PLL Equivalent Augmented System Incorporated with State Feedback Designed by LQR

  • Wanchana, Somsak;Benjanarasuth, Taworn;Komine, Noriyuki;Ngamwiwit, Jongkol
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2007
  • The PLL equivalent augmented system incorporated with state feedback is proposed in this paper. The optimal value of filter time constant of loop filter in the phase-locked loop control system and the optimal state feedback gain designed by using linear quadratic regulator approach are derived. This approach allows the PLL control system to employ the large value of the phase-frequency gain $K_d$ and voltage control oscillator gain $K_o$. In designing, the structure of phase-locked loop control system will be rearranged to be a phase-locked loop equivalent augmented system by including the structure of loop filter into the process and by considering the voltage control oscillator as an additional integrator. The designed controller consisting of state feedback gain matrix K and integral gain $k_1$ is an optimal controller. The integral gain $k_1$ related to weighting matrices q and R will be an optimal value for assigning the filter time constant of loop filter. The experimental results in controlling the second-order lag pressure process using two types of loop filters show that the system response is fast without steady-state error, the output disturbance effect rejection is fast and the tracking to step changes is good.

Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in Malaysia: An ARDL Approach

  • YOONG, Foo Tzen;LATIP, Abdul Rahman Abdul;SANUSI, Nur Azura;KUSAIRI, Suhal
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권11호
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to find out the time-series nexus of public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. For an upper-middle income country, Malaysia had experienced over 50% ratio of debt to GDP since 2009 until now. The question arises is whether this trend is healthy to the economy. With a focus into the debt-to-GDP ratio from 1970-2015, this study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. This study used secondary data by collecting time-series data (1970-2015) from the World Bank Data and Bank Negara Malaysia. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied in this study to examine the relationship between debt and economic growth. Based on ARDL framework, it shows that there is a long-run effect between the debt and economic growth in Malaysia. While the significance value of Error Correction Term shows that there is a long-run adjustment in the short run. Generally, this study found government expenditures, in the long run, strongly influence the GDP per capita. Through the findings, the government expenditures could increase the GDP per capita. The study also reveals that any increment of the debt ratio will result in reduction of the GDP per capita.

비선형 자기회귀모형을 이용한 남방진동지수 시계열 분석 (Nonlinear Autoregressive Modeling of Southern Oscillation Index)

  • 권현한;문영일
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제39권12호
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    • pp.997-1012
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 조건부 핵밀도함수와 CAFPE(Corrected Asymptotic Final Prediction Error) 차수결정 방법에 근거한 비매개변수적 비선형 자기회귀 (Nonlinear AutoRegressive, NAR) 모형을 소개하고 이를 SOI(Southern Oscillation Index)에 적용하였다. SOI 자료에 대해서 선형 AR 모형을 적용하였으나 잔차에 대한 검정결과 이분산성(heteroscedasticity)을 나타내었다. 또한 BDS(Brock-Dechert-Sheinkman) 검정에서 비선형성이 존재함을 확인하였다. 따라서 NAR 모형에 SOI 자료를 적용시켰다. CAFPE를 이용하여 가장 적합한 모형으로 지체 1, 2와 4가 선택되었으며 조건부 평균함수를 추정하여 SOI 자료를 모의한 결과 잔차에 대해서 정규성과 이분산성 가정이 Jarque-Bera 검정과 ARCH-LM 검정에서 각각 기각되었으며 또한 조건부 표준편차함수의 최적 차수로 3, 8과 9가 CAPFE를 통해 선택되었다. 조건부 평균함수와 표준편차함수를 모두 고려한 모형에 대한 잔차 검정 결과 잔차의 I.I.D 가정을 만족하였으며 특히, BDS 검정에서 신뢰구간 95%와 99%에서 모두 만족한 결과를 나타내었다. 마지막으로 전체의 15%에 해당하는 SOI 자료에 대해서 One-Step 예측을 수행하였으며 선형 모형에 비해 평균제곱예측오차가 7% 적게 나타났다. 따라서, NAR 모형은 여타의 매개변수적 방법과 달리 모형 선택에 있어 자유로우며 비선형성을 고려할 수 있는 모형으로서 SOI 자료와 같은 비선형 자료를 위한 모의방법으로 선형 모형에 비해 많은 장점을 가지고 있다.