• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.41-48
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• 1981

The income and price elasticities of the timber demand for the 27 years (1953~79) in Korea were analyzed by the 3 economic growth stages - in 1953~61, in 1962~71, in 1972~79-. The results obtained are as follows : 1. In 1953~79, the income and price elasticities of the total timber demand were respectively 1.87 and -0.47 ; those of the domestic timber demand were respectively 0.09 and -0.30 ; those of the foreign timber demand were respectively 2.50 and -0.11. 2. In 1953~61, the income and price elasticities of the total timber demand were respectively 2.11 and -0.86 ; those of the domestic timber demand were respectively -2.94 and -0.57 ; those of the foreign timber demand were respectively 1.20 and 0.43. 3. In 1962~71, the income and price elasticities of the total timber demand were respectively 2.89 and -0.20 ; those of the domestic timber demand were respectively 1.38 and -0.25 ; those of the foreign timber demand were respectively 3.54 and -0.42. 4. In 1972~79, the income and price elasticities of the total timber demand were respectively 1.07 and 0.17 ; those of the domestic timber demand were respectively 1.12 and 0.12 ; those of the foreign timber demand were respectively 1.22 and 0.17.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.29-35
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• 1980

The purpose of this study is to analyze and to forecast the long-term domestic demand and export demand for timber in Korea by regression models with time series data during 1962~1978. The method applied in this study was econometric analysis using Time Series Processor. The most important explanatory variables of timber demand were found to be the production activities of wood products industries to the prices of substitute goods. On the basis of the long-term forecast made according to the guidelines of the Fifth Five-Year Plan. According to the projection, domestic timber demand is projected at 8 million cubic meters in 1987 and 10.6 million cubic meters in 1991. On the other hand, the total demand (domestic demand plus export demand) for timber is projected 21.4 million cubic meters in 1987 and 27.2 million cubic meters in 1991.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.89 no.1
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• pp.126-134
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• 2000

The purpose of this study is to examine the status of supply-demand and procurement of the timber used for wooden cultural properties. Because people require the high quality pine timber with cultural assurance and public function for cultural properties, it is priced far higher than ordinary construction timber. The timber consumption was estimated at 18 thousand cubic meter in 1998, of which the large sized log(LSL) with the small end diameter over 30cm consisted of 35.5%, equivalent to 6,300 cubic meter. Majority of the timber was supplied from private forest located in Kangwon-do and national forest, accounting for 65.7% and 16.7%, respectively. Recently the supply more and more relied on timber logged in Kangwon-do. Owing to lack of domestic supply of LSL class timber, part of the volume has been substituted by import log. Most of carpenters working on cultural properties thought that supply of LSL timber would hardly meet the increasing demand for uses of wooden cultural properties. Finally, in order to uphold the tradition of wooden cultural properties, it is necessary to establish a forest management plan which aim at producing large size high quality pine timber.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.2
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• pp.124-138
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• 1992

This study was carried out to estimate long-term demand functions, and to project consumption of roundwood to the year 2030, using time series data for the period 1970-1990. Especially, the unique features of this study are in the estimation of demand functions for roundwood by species group and by end-use with help of dummy variables. It also, attempts to show how dummy variables can be utilized for improving the estimation result. The result of this study reveals that hardwood roundwood consumption is being substituted by softwood roundwood due to the rapid increase in the relative price of softwood, and this trend is expected to continue in the near future. The consumption of roundwood by mining industry is projected to fall as the coal :mining is expected to decline. The parametric estimates of timber demand function by species group and by end-use indicate that the demand for timber in Korea is more responsive to the performance of domestic economy as a whole, represented by GDP in this study, than to other variables such as own and substitute prices. The effects of population growth and substitute prices could not be determined.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.287-311
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• 2008

This paper is designed to examine how the global timber market impacted by climate change would affect global warming through the carbon flux of forests. For this purpose, we integrated the modified TSM 2000 and the extended TCM in order to simulate the projection of net carbon release of forests from 1995 to 2085. On the basis of the simulation results under normal demand growth scenario, we identified that the global timber market impacted by climate change ameliorates the atmospheric carbon about 3.60% of carbon dioxide concentration in 1990 over 90 years. This implies that the global timber market impacted by climate change has a negative feedback effect on global warming over 90 years. For sensitivity analysis, we performed these simulation procedure under high demand growth scenario and very high demand growth scenario.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.41-51
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• 1998

This study not only carried out to grasp about the sununarized characteristics of the relationship between international timber market and production trend of wood products, but also focused on the analysis of korean wood demand and the long-term forecast with econometric analysis. The result of regression analysis for wood demand in Korea is that coniferous roundwood demand(CIWD) is explained by coniferous foreign roundwood price(CWRI), Gross domestic product(GDP), a dummy variable. Non-coniferous roundwood demand(NCIWD)is explained by non-coniferous roundwood price(NCWRI), coniferous roundwood price(CWRI), a dummy variable. As the result of long-term forecast by base case, the total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,107,000m^3$ in the year 2000, $11,781,000m^3$ in 2005, $12,565,000m^3$ in 2010. As the result of scenario 1, total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,027,000m^3$ in 2000, $11,435,000m^3$ in 2005, $11,952,000m^3$ in 2010. And as the result by scenario 2, total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,341,000m^3$ in 2000, $12,208,000m^3$ in 2005 $13,257,000m^3$ in 2010.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.557-579
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• 2002

In recent days, it has been significantly suggested that the promotion of sustainable forest management will play an important role in ameliorating atmospheric carbon. In this respect, we intend to investigate the dynamic impact of the global timber market on carbon flux of forest through net carbon release into the atmosphere. For this purpose, we integrated the TSM 2000 with TCM to simulate the projection of net carbon release of the global timber market over 90 years, starting 1995. As a result, we identified that the global timber market increases the carbon dioxide concentration about l.9% over next 90 years; hence results in a positive effect on global warming. For sensitivity analysis, we performed these procedures under three different timber demand growth scenarios.

• Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-16
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• 2006

Based on data collected by the State Forestry Administration (SFA) and other databases, this paper describes the current status, future trend and general policies in China's forestry. Forestry sector plays an important role in GDP growth of China. As a result forestry industry value output is increasing day by day. There is huge gap between demand and supply of timber projected in 2010. As a result it is necessary to develop fast growing, high yield forest following some specific policies. The ultimate goals of forestry are to construct or improve industry infrastructure, overall upgrade of forest industry structure, income improvement of forest employees and peasants, polices renewal and technology improvement, acceleration of forest processing with high-tech.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.1715-1724
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• 2015

This study assessed the long term structure of forest age groups and the possibility of a domestic wood supply based on the wood industry buildup master plan. Wood is assumed to be supplied by main cutting, renewal, cutting damaged trees and thinning. The cohort equation was applied to identify the dynamic changes in forest area according to the age groups. The sixth age group, which composed of only 7.7% in 2010, is expected to comprise 73% of the total production land. The area distributions of the other age groups are expected to be between 5.3 - 5.6%. Consequently, the production volume from main cutting accounts for approximately 93 - 95% of the total production. The production volume from thinning, which depends on the area of the second and third age groups, will be decreased gradually. When the volume of domestic timber supply was compared with the timber demand from a previous study, the self-sufficiency of timber demand will be approximately 83% in 2050.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.70-76
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• 1980

Forestry economics in Japan faces the problems of severe decreasing of timber demand and increased importing of foreign timber. Moreover, lack of labour and heavy wages in forestry cause the failure of normal forest management in Japan. In the situation, it is necessary for enhancing the forest production to reorganize the forest resources, to optimize the amount of importing foreign timber, and to greatly expand the new forest road, reforestation, government subsidy and poritical financial support for the foresters. At present, improvement of mangement of national forest as well as public function of forest are being discussed for the forest production on the government basis.