• Title/Summary/Keyword: Three stage models

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THREE-STAGED RISK EVALUATION MODEL FOR BIDDING ON INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Wooyong Jung;Seung Heon Han
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.534-541
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    • 2011
  • Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

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A Study on the Developmental Direction with Reference to User's Satisfaction of Urban Park -Cases study of Daeshin Natural Park in Pusan City- (도시공원 이용만족도에 기초한 도시공원의 개발방향에 관한 연구 - 부산시 대신자연공원을 사례로-)

  • 임승범
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 1991
  • The primary purpose of this study is to investigate factors and variables which have significant effects on user's satisfaction with recreational activities in Daeshin Natural Park, thereby establishing directions of development of urban parks. To test the causal models of this research, the data were gathered by self-administered questionnaires form 627 households in Pusan City which were selected by the multi-stage probability sampling method. The analysis of the data primarily consists of two-phase: The first analysis dealt exploratory factor analysis which identified major factors involved in satisfaction with recreational activities in Daeshin Natural Park and the second analysis tested the fit of the causal models of this research by employing LISREL methodology. The factor analysis identified that three factors are involved in satisfaction with recreational actitives. The three factors of satisfaction with recreational activities are facilities for health and phisical exercise, group recreational activity, maintenance activity. The second phase analysis tested the fit of the causal models for satisfaction with recreational activity to the data and identified statistically significant causal linkage among overall satisfaction with Daeshin Natural Park, other endogenous factors and exogenous variables.

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Evaluation of Numerical Models for Analysing an Industrial Centrifugal Blower (산업용 원심블로어 수치해석을 위한 수치모델 평가)

  • Lee, Jongsung;Jang, Choonman
    • Journal of Hydrogen and New Energy
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.688-695
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    • 2012
  • The present study represents the effects of boundary condition on the performance of a centrifugal blower at the interference plane between rotational and stationary domains using three dimensional compressible Navier-Stocks equations. Two boundary conditions, frozen-rotor and stage, are compared to analyze the blower performance. Installation angle between the cutoff of a volute casing and a impeller blade is also introduced to evaluate the blower performance and to understand the internal flow inside the blower. Throughout numerical simulation, it is found that the frozen rotor interface method at the interference plane represents well the variations of flow field inside the blower compared to stage interface method. However, pressure has maximum two percent error according to the installation angles while pressure is almost constant for the stage interface method. And stage interface method can relatively well predict the blower performance. Detailed internal flows of the centrifugal blower are compared and analyzed by numerical simulation.

Development of a System Dynamics Model for Forecasting the Automobile Market (시스템다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 차급별 월간 자동차 수요 예측 모델 개발)

  • 곽상만;김기찬;안수웅;장원혁;홍정석
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.79-104
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    • 2002
  • A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused on the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies “one car per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990 - 1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.

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Life Cycle Analysis of Stem Cell Technology Based on Diffusion Model : Focused on the Research Stage (확산 모형을 이용한 줄기 세포 기술의 수명 주기 분석 : 연구 단계를 중심으로)

  • Jang, In-young;Hong, Jungsik;Kim, Taegu
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.488-498
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    • 2015
  • Research on stem cells can be divided into three categories : pluripotent stem cell, adult stem cell, and induced pluripotent stem cell. Technology life cycle (TLC) on research stage is analyzed for the three stem cell categories based on diffusion model. Three diffusion models-logistic, Bass, and Bass model with integration constant (BMIC)-are applied to the number of articles related to each stem cell category in SCOPUS lists. Two different parameter estimation methods is used for each of logistic and Bass model. Results show that (1) the current year, 2015, lies in growth period at pluripotent stem cell and adult stem cell, and lies in growth period or maturity period at induced pluripotent stem cell. (2) Model fitness is the highest at BMIC model. (3) Imitation effect works best at the research area of induced pluripotent stem cell.

Human Laughter Generation using Hybrid Generative Models

  • Mansouri, Nadia;Lachiri, Zied
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1590-1609
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    • 2021
  • Laughter is one of the most important nonverbal sound that human generates. It is a means for expressing his emotions. The acoustic and contextual features of this specific sound are different from those of speech and many difficulties arise during their modeling process. During this work, we propose an audio laughter generation system based on unsupervised generative models: the autoencoder (AE) and its variants. This procedure is the association of three main sub-process, (1) the analysis which consist of extracting the log magnitude spectrogram from the laughter database, (2) the generative models training, (3) the synthesis stage which incorporate the involvement of an intermediate mechanism: the vocoder. To improve the synthesis quality, we suggest two hybrid models (LSTM-VAE, GRU-VAE and CNN-VAE) that combine the representation learning capacity of variational autoencoder (VAE) with the temporal modelling ability of a long short-term memory RNN (LSTM) and the CNN ability to learn invariant features. To figure out the performance of our proposed audio laughter generation process, objective evaluation (RMSE) and a perceptual audio quality test (listening test) were conducted. According to these evaluation metrics, we can show that the GRU-VAE outperforms the other VAE models.

Prediction of Residual Axillary Nodal Metastasis Following Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer: Radiomics Analysis Based on Chest Computed Tomography

  • Hyo-jae Lee;Anh-Tien Nguyen;Myung Won Song;Jong Eun Lee;Seol Bin Park;Won Gi Jeong;Min Ho Park;Ji Shin Lee;Ilwoo Park;Hyo Soon Lim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.498-511
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of chest computed tomography (CT)-based qualitative and radiomics models for predicting residual axillary nodal metastasis after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for patients with clinically node-positive breast cancer. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 226 women (mean age, 51.4 years) with clinically node-positive breast cancer treated with NAC followed by surgery between January 2015 and July 2021. Patients were randomly divided into the training and test sets (4:1 ratio). The following predictive models were built: a qualitative CT feature model using logistic regression based on qualitative imaging features of axillary nodes from the pooled data obtained using the visual interpretations of three radiologists; three radiomics models using radiomics features from three (intranodal, perinodal, and combined) different regions of interest (ROIs) delineated on pre-NAC CT and post-NAC CT using a gradient-boosting classifier; and fusion models integrating clinicopathologic factors with the qualitative CT feature model (referred to as clinical-qualitative CT feature models) or with the combined ROI radiomics model (referred to as clinical-radiomics models). The area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess and compare the model performance. Results: Clinical N stage, biological subtype, and primary tumor response indicated by imaging were associated with residual nodal metastasis during the multivariable analysis (all P < 0.05). The AUCs of the qualitative CT feature model and radiomics models (intranodal, perinodal, and combined ROI models) according to post-NAC CT were 0.642, 0.812, 0.762, and 0.832, respectively. The AUCs of the clinical-qualitative CT feature model and clinical-radiomics model according to post-NAC CT were 0.740 and 0.866, respectively. Conclusion: CT-based predictive models showed good diagnostic performance for predicting residual nodal metastasis after NAC. Quantitative radiomics analysis may provide a higher level of performance than qualitative CT features models. Larger multicenter studies should be conducted to confirm their performance.

Development of a Standardized Clinical Practice Education Program in Occupational Therapy Student (작업치료 대학생의 임상실습 교육 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Min-Jae;Lee, Sun-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2022
  • Purpose : This study is aimed to develop and validate the clinical practice education program and clinical competence scale of occupational therapy student. Methods : The development of the clinical practice education program used the delphi technique method, which had a total of five steps. Based on the occupational therapist's job analysis, the first stage assessed the importance of 21 experts, and the second stage examined the importance of 19 new specialists to derive constitutive factors. In the third stage, in-depth interviews were conducted with three experts based on the derived factors, and in the fourth stage, the final clinical practice education program was derived. In the final stage, the details of the clinical training program were drawn up based on the themes and were reviewed by two experts. Structured and unstructured interviews were conducted with 43 job experts. Results : The expert survey through the delphi technique was conducted three times, and content analysis and descriptive statistics were conducted to examine the distribution of responses. The final 11 educational program topics and contents were derived. Topics are confirmation of client information, evaluation and intervention, cognitive therapy, spinal cord injury, brain injury, musculoskeletal disorders, pediatric occupational therapy, interventions in activities of daily living, driving rehabilitation, vocational rehabilitation, occupational therapy assessment tool, safety training and management. Conclusion : The clinical practice education program reduce the difference between school education and clinical education of occupational therapy student. Occupational therapy helps college student understand occupational therapy practices and improve the quality of clinical education. Through more research and supplementation of clinical practice education programs in the future, it is suggested that clinical practice education be successfully operated in various practice institutions and used as basic data for designing and evaluating useful educational models.

Games in Community Network Businesses (커뮤니티 네트워크 형성게임)

  • Oh, Jeong-Hun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2001
  • Like other communication networks, the Internet is establishing and reinforcing connections between market participants. By adapting to these networks, market participants are able to obtain the power of network to create new benefits in on-line markets. In this paper, we develop three stage non-cooperative game models to analyze the community related business market in electronic commerce where network externalities are present. It is found that, regardless of its market share, individual firm in a market tends to favor a community network. The analysis also shows there exist some possibilities that these community networks can trap the market in an inferior state when better alternatives are available to yield greater social welfare.

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A Study on the Effects of the Flexibilities of Suspension System of a Vehicle for Handling Performance (자동차 현가장치의 강성이 조종안정성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 송성재;문홍기;조병관
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.186-197
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    • 1998
  • An analysis of handling performance including the compliance effects is performed. Using the primitive design data of suspension systems, a kinematic model and the three kinds of compliance models are developed. The wheel alignments curves are obtained with the multibody dynamic analysis program ADAMS. The compliance effects of each model are discussed. Since the proposed analysis only requires the raw design data, the better prediction of wheel behaviors is possible in suspension design stage.

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