• Title/Summary/Keyword: The Logistic Curve

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Estimation Model for Simplification and Validation of Soil Water Characteristics Curve on Volcanic Ash Soil in Subtropical Area in Korea (난지권 화산회토양의 토색별 토양수분 특성곡선 및 단일화 추정모형)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Lim, Han-Cheol;Kim, Geong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.329-333
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    • 2006
  • Most of volcanic ash soils in South Korea are distributed in Jeju province which is an island placed on southern part of Korea and has steep slope mountain area. There are many soils containing high contents of organic matter (OM) derived from volcanic ash in Jejudo, also. Therefore, irrigation and drainage in volcanic ash soil different with general soil which has low OM content have to be applied with another management way, but studies searching appropriate methods for them are set on insufficient situation because the area of volcanic ash soil in South Korea is only 1.3% (130,000ha). This study was conducted for analysis of soil water content and irrigation quantity appropriate for crops cultivated in volcanic ash soil with high OM content. Although soils with different soil color have the same soil texture, soil water characteristics curve by soil color showed the difference of water retention capability by OM content. But, this characteristics classified with soil color could be unified by scaling technique with similitude analysis method which get dimensionless water content using a present water content, a residual water content and saturated water content (or water content at 10kPa). A relation of gravimetric soil water content (GSWC) and dimensionless water content by the results showed a form of power function. The dimensionless water content (DWC) express a relative saturation degree of present water content. This was also expressed by van Genuchten model which describe the relation between relative saturation degrees and matric potentials. These results on soil water characteristics curve (SWCC) of volcanic ash soil will be the basic of irrigation plan in area having high organic contents into soil.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

A Study on the Selectivity of the Trawl Net for the Demersal Fishes in the East China Sea - 2 (동지나해 저서 어자원에 대한 트롤어구의 어획선택성에 관한 연구 - 2)

  • Kim, Sam-Gon;Lee, Ju-Hee;Kim, Jin-Gun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.371-379
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    • 1992
  • In order to analyse the mesh selectivity for the trawl net, the fishing experiment was carried out by the training ship Saebada in the southern Korea Sea and the East China Sea from June 1991 to August 1992. The trawl net used in experiment has the trouser type of cod-end with cover net, and the mesh selectivity was examined for the five kinds of the opening mesh size in its cod-end part. The selection curves and the selection parameters were calculated by using a logistic function, S=1/(1+exp super(-(aL+b))), and in this case, a and b are the selection parameters and L is the body length of the target species of fishes. In this report, the four species of aquatic animals were analysed because the catch data were enough to calculate normally the selection curves and the selection parameters, and the results obtained are summarized as follows: 1. Trachurus japonicus; Selection parameters a and b in each cases of the opening mesh size of 51.2mm, 70.2mm, 77.6mm, 88.0mm and 111.3mm were respectively 0.5050 and -5.4283, 0.3018 and -4.9590, 0.3816 and -7.3659, 0.2695 and -5.7958, 0.2170 and -5.1226. 2. Photololigo edulis ; Selection Parameters a and b in each cases of the former mesh sizes were respectively 0.7394 and -6.1433, 0.3389 and -4.2366, 0.3286 and -5.1002, 0.2543 and -5.0049, 0.1795 and -4.8040. 3. Trichirus lepturus; Selection curves in the opening mesh size of 111.3mm was calculated unnormally. The selection parameters in the other opening mesh sizes were respectively 0.3790 and -5.2891, 0.2071 and -4.9164, 0.1292 and -3.1733, 0.1153 and -3.8497 in the order of former mesh sizes except 111.3mm. 4. Todarodes pacificus ; Selection curve in case of the opening mesh sizes, 70.2mm and 111.3mm were calculated unnormally. In the order cases of the opening mesh sizes, the selection parameters were respectively were 0.5766 and -6.0169, 0.3735 and -5.4633, 0.2771 and -5.7718 in the order of former mesh sizes except 70.2mm and 111.3mm.

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Machine Learning Model to Predict Osteoporotic Spine with Hounsfield Units on Lumbar Computed Tomography

  • Nam, Kyoung Hyup;Seo, Il;Kim, Dong Hwan;Lee, Jae Il;Choi, Byung Kwan;Han, In Ho
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.442-449
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    • 2019
  • Objective : Bone mineral density (BMD) is an important consideration during fusion surgery. Although dual X-ray absorptiometry is considered as the gold standard for assessing BMD, quantitative computed tomography (QCT) provides more accurate data in spine osteoporosis. However, QCT has the disadvantage of additional radiation hazard and cost. The present study was to demonstrate the utility of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithm for assessing osteoporosis using Hounsfield units (HU) of preoperative lumbar CT coupling with data of QCT. Methods : We reviewed 70 patients undergoing both QCT and conventional lumbar CT for spine surgery. The T-scores of 198 lumbar vertebra was assessed in QCT and the HU of vertebral body at the same level were measured in conventional CT by the picture archiving and communication system (PACS) system. A multiple regression algorithm was applied to predict the T-score using three independent variables (age, sex, and HU of vertebral body on conventional CT) coupling with T-score of QCT. Next, a logistic regression algorithm was applied to predict osteoporotic or non-osteoporotic vertebra. The Tensor flow and Python were used as the machine learning tools. The Tensor flow user interface developed in our institute was used for easy code generation. Results : The predictive model with multiple regression algorithm estimated similar T-scores with data of QCT. HU demonstrates the similar results as QCT without the discordance in only one non-osteoporotic vertebra that indicated osteoporosis. From the training set, the predictive model classified the lumbar vertebra into two groups (osteoporotic vs. non-osteoporotic spine) with 88.0% accuracy. In a test set of 40 vertebrae, classification accuracy was 92.5% when the learning rate was 0.0001 (precision, 0.939; recall, 0.969; F1 score, 0.954; area under the curve, 0.900). Conclusion : This study is a simple machine learning model applicable in the spine research field. The machine learning model can predict the T-score and osteoporotic vertebrae solely by measuring the HU of conventional CT, and this would help spine surgeons not to under-estimate the osteoporotic spine preoperatively. If applied to a bigger data set, we believe the predictive accuracy of our model will further increase. We propose that machine learning is an important modality of the medical research field.

Analysis of Land Use Change Using RCP-Based Dyna-CLUE Model in the Hwangguji River Watershed (RCP 시나리오 기반 Dyna-CLUE 모형을 이용한 황구지천 유역의 토지이용변화 분석)

  • Kim, Jihye;Park, Jihoon;Song, Inhong;Song, Jung-Hun;Jun, Sang Min;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study was to predict land use change based on the land use change scenarios for the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The land use change scenario was derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CLUE (conversion of land use and its effects) model was used to simulate the land use change. The CLUE is the modeling framework to simulate land use change considering empirically quantified relations between land use types and socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors through dynamical modeling. The Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea was selected as study area. Future land use changes in 2040, 2070, and 2100 were analyzed relative to baseline (2010) under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Binary logistic regressions were carried out to identify the relation between land uses and its driving factors. CN (Curve number) and impervious area based on the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed using the results of future land use changes. The land use change simulation of the RCP4.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 12% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 16% between 2010 and 2100. The land use change simulation of the RCP8.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 16% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 18% between 2010 and 2100. The values of Kappa and multiple resolution procedure were calculated as 0.61 and 74.03%. CN (III) and impervious area were increased by 0-1 and 0-8% from 2010 to 2100, respectively. The study findings may provide a useful tool for estimating the future land use change, which is an important factor for the future extreme flood.

Use of an Artificial Neural Network to Construct a Model of Predicting Deep Fungal Infection in Lung Cancer Patients

  • Chen, Jian;Chen, Jie;Ding, Hong-Yan;Pan, Qin-Shi;Hong, Wan-Dong;Xu, Gang;Yu, Fang-You;Wang, Yu-Min
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.5095-5099
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    • 2015
  • Background: The statistical methods to analyze and predict the related dangerous factors of deep fungal infection in lung cancer patients were several, such as logic regression analysis, meta-analysis, multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, retrospective analysis, and so on, but the results are inconsistent. Materials and Methods: A total of 696 patients with lung cancer were enrolled. The factors were compared employing Student's t-test or the Mann-Whitney test or the Chi-square test and variables that were significantly related to the presence of deep fungal infection selected as candidates for input into the final artificial neural network analysis (ANN) model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) model and logistic regression (LR) model. Results: The prevalence of deep fungal infection from lung cancer in this entire study population was 32.04%(223/696), deep fungal infections occur in sputum specimens 44.05%(200/454). The ratio of candida albicans was 86.99% (194/223) in the total fungi. It was demonstrated that older (${\geq}65$ years), use of antibiotics, low serum albumin concentrations (${\leq}37.18g/L$), radiotherapy, surgery, low hemoglobin hyperlipidemia (${\leq}93.67g/L$), long time of hospitalization (${\geq}14$days) were apt to deep fungal infection and the ANN model consisted of the seven factors. The AUC of ANN model($0.829{\pm}0.019$)was higher than that of LR model ($0.756{\pm}0.021$). Conclusions: The artificial neural network model with variables consisting of age, use of antibiotics, serum albumin concentrations, received radiotherapy, received surgery, hemoglobin, time of hospitalization should be useful for predicting the deep fungal infection in lung cancer.

Texture Analysis of Three-Dimensional MRI Images May Differentiate Borderline and Malignant Epithelial Ovarian Tumors

  • Rongping Ye;Shuping Weng;Yueming Li;Chuan Yan;Jianwei Chen;Yuemin Zhu;Liting Wen
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.106-117
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To explore the value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based whole tumor texture analysis in differentiating borderline epithelial ovarian tumors (BEOTs) from FIGO stage I/II malignant epithelial ovarian tumors (MEOTs). Materials and Methods: A total of 88 patients with histopathologically confirmed ovarian epithelial tumors after surgical resection, including 30 BEOT and 58 MEOT patients, were divided into a training group (n = 62) and a test group (n = 26). The clinical and conventional MRI features were retrospectively reviewed. The texture features of tumors, based on T2-weighted imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging, and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging, were extracted using MaZda software and the three top weighted texture features were selected by using the Random Forest algorithm. A non-texture logistic regression model in the training group was built to include those clinical and conventional MRI variables with p value < 0.10. Subsequently, a combined model integrating non-texture information and texture features was built for the training group. The model, evaluated using patients in the training group, was then applied to patients in the test group. Finally, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the diagnostic performance of the models. Results: The combined model showed superior performance in categorizing BEOTs and MEOTs (sensitivity, 92.5%; specificity, 86.4%; accuracy, 90.3%; area under the ROC curve [AUC], 0.962) than the non-texture model (sensitivity, 78.3%; specificity, 84.6%; accuracy, 82.3%; AUC, 0.818). The AUCs were statistically different (p value = 0.038). In the test group, the AUCs, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 0.840, 73.3%, 90.1%, and 80.8% when the non-texture model was used and 0.896, 75.0%, 94.0%, and 88.5% when the combined model was used. Conclusion: MRI-based texture features combined with clinical and conventional MRI features may assist in differentitating between BEOT and FIGO stage I/II MEOT patients.

Development and Validation of 18F-FDG PET/CT-Based Multivariable Clinical Prediction Models for the Identification of Malignancy-Associated Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis

  • Xu Yang;Xia Lu;Jun Liu;Ying Kan;Wei Wang;Shuxin Zhang;Lei Liu;Jixia Li;Jigang Yang
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.466-478
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    • 2022
  • Objective: 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT is often used for detecting malignancy in patients with newly diagnosed hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), with acceptable sensitivity but relatively low specificity. The aim of this study was to improve the diagnostic ability of 18F-FDG PET/CT in identifying malignancy in patients with HLH by combining 18F-FDG PET/CT and clinical parameters. Materials and Methods: Ninety-seven patients (age ≥ 14 years) with secondary HLH were retrospectively reviewed and divided into the derivation (n = 71) and validation (n = 26) cohorts according to admission time. In the derivation cohort, 22 patients had malignancy-associated HLH (M-HLH) and 49 patients had non-malignancy-associated HLH (NM-HLH). Data on pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT and laboratory results were collected. The variables were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test or Pearson's chi-square test, and a nomogram for predicting M-HLH was constructed using multivariable binary logistic regression. The predictors were also ranked using decision-tree analysis. The nomogram and decision tree were validated in the validation cohort (10 patients with M-HLH and 16 patients with NM-HLH). Results: The ratio of the maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the lymph nodes to that of the mediastinum, the ratio of the SUVmax of bone lesions or bone marrow to that of the mediastinum, and age were selected for constructing the model. The nomogram showed good performance in predicting M-HLH in the validation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.875 (95% confidence interval, 0.686-0.971). At an appropriate cutoff value, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying M-HLH were 90% (9/10) and 68.8% (11/16), respectively. The decision tree integrating the same variables showed 70% (7/10) sensitivity and 93.8% (15/16) specificity for identifying M-HLH. In comparison, visual analysis of 18F-FDG PET/CT images demonstrated 100% (10/10) sensitivity and 12.5% (2/16) specificity. Conclusion: 18F-FDG PET/CT may be a practical technique for identifying M-HLH. The model constructed using 18F-FDG PET/CT features and age was able to detect malignancy with better accuracy than visual analysis of 18F-FDG PET/CT images.

Analysis of Hematological Factor to Predict Plaque of the Carotid Artery in Ultrasound Images (경동맥초음파에서 죽상경화반을 예측하는 혈액학적 수치의 분석)

  • Yang, Sung Hee;Kang, Se Sik;Lee, Jinsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we performed the carotid artery ultrasound targeting 140 subjects who have conducted to evaluate the changes in intima-media thickness(IMT) and plaque correlated with the presence or absence of a hematological test of the carotid artery. Considering that the IMT thickness more than 1mm is abnormal based on the carotid artery ultrasound to assess the presence or absence of plaque, and examined the correlation by classifying the blood lipid value and the fasting blood glucose level through the serum test. Consequently, the fasting blood glucose level is being analyzed as independent predictors of causing dental plaque(p=0.033), cut off value was determined as 126 mg/dL(sensitivity 56.25%, specificity 68.38%) in ROC curve analysis. Furthermore, the odds ratio appeared 1.01 times the value in the Logistic regression. Therefore, it seemed that the necessity to prospective studies in a number of subjects are considered, and also taking into account a number of blood test values along with the sonography of the carotid artery as a valuable part for effective primary prevention and follow-up observation of the cardiac and brain vascular disease is highly recommended.

Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Treated by Posterior Spinal Segmental Instrumented Fusion : When Is Fusion to L3 Stable?

  • Hyun, Seung-Jae;Lenke, Lawrence G.;Kim, Yongjung;Bridwell, Keith H.;Cerpa, Meghan;Blanke, Kathy M.
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.776-783
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    • 2021
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for distal adding on (AO) or distal junctional kyphosis (DJK) in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) treated by posterior spinal fusion (PSF) to L3 with a minimum 2-year follow-up. Methods : AIS patients undergoing PSF to L3 by two senior surgeons from 2000-2010 were analyzed. Distal AO and DJK were deemed poor radiographic results and defined as >3 cm of deviation from L3 to the center sacral vertical line (CSVL), or >10° angle at L3-4 on the posterior anterior- or lateral X-ray at ultimate follow-up. New stable vertebra (SV) and neutral vertebra (NV) scores were defined for this study. The total stability (TS) score was the sum of the SV and NV scores. Results : Ten of 76 patients (13.1%) were included in the poor radiographic outcome group. The other 66 patients were included in the good radiographic outcome group. Lower Risser grade, more SV-3 (CSVL doesn't touch the lowest instrumented vertebra [LIV]) on standing and side bending films, lesser NV and TS score, rigid L3-4 disc, more rotation and deviation of L3 were identified risk factors for AO or DJK. Age, number of fused vertebrae, curve correction, preoperative coronal/sagittal L3-4 disc angle did not differ significantly between the two groups. Multiple logistic regression results indicated that preoperative Risser grade 0, 1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.8), SV-3 at L3 in standing and side benders (OR, 2.1 and 2.8, respectively), TS score -5, -6 at L3 (OR, 4.4), rigid disc at L3-4 (OR, 3.1), LIV rotation >15° (OR, 2.9), and LIV deviation >2 cm from CSVL (OR, 2.2) were independent predictive factors. Although there was significant improvement of the of Scoliosis Research Society-22 average scores only in the good radiographic outcome group, there was no significant difference in the scores between the groups. Conclusion : The prevalence of AO or DJK at ultimate follow-up for AIS with LIV at L3 was 13.1%. To prevent AO or DJK following fusion to L3, we recommend that the CSVL touch L3 in both standing and side bending, TS score is -4 or less, the L3/4 disc is flexible, L3 is neutral (<15°) and ≤2 cm from the midline and the patient is ≥ Risser 2.