• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제42권6호
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• pp.605-622
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• 2021

Seasonal forecasting has numerous socioeconomic benefits because it can be used for disaster mitigation. Therefore, it is necessary to diagnose and improve the seasonal forecast model. Moreover, the model performance is partly related to the ocean model. This study evaluated the hindcast performance in the upper ocean of the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5-Global Couple Configuration 2 (GloSea5-GC2) using a multivariable integrated evaluation method. The normalized potential temperature, salinity, zonal and meridional currents, and sea surface height anomalies were evaluated. Model performance was affected by the target month and was found to be better in the Pacific than in the Atlantic. An increase in lead time led to a decrease in overall model performance, along with decreases in interannual variability, pattern similarity, and root mean square vector deviation. Improving the performance for ocean currents is a more critical than enhancing the performance for other evaluated variables. The tropical Pacific showed the best accuracy in the surface layer, but a spring predictability barrier was present. At the depth of 301 m, the north Pacific and tropical Atlantic exhibited the best and worst accuracies, respectively. These findings provide fundamental evidence for the ocean forecasting performance of GloSea5.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.119-134
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• 2023

본 연구는 2021년 3월 1일부터 2일까지 영동지역에 강설이 발생했던 사례의 종관적, 열역학적, 역학적 특성을 분석한 것이다. 분석에 사용한 자료는 AWS 관측자료, 지상일기도, ERA5 재분석 자료, 레윈존데, 천리안 2A 위성 자료, WISSDOM 자료 등이다. 사례 기간 영동지역 4개소에서 관측된 적설은 10 cm 이상으로 나타났으며, 북강릉(37.4 cm)에서는 가장 많은 적설을 보였다. 종관 분석결과, 동해상 및 영동지역 주변으로 중·상층 대기의 매우 차고 건조한 대기와 상대적으로 따뜻한 하층 대기의 온도 차이로 대류 불안정이 형성되어 북강릉 지역으로 대류운의 발달과 함께 강설이 나타났다. 특히 열역학적 및 운동학적 연직 분석에서, 하층에서 온위의 연직 경도에 의한 강한 바람과 한랭이류에 의한 대류 불안정이 영동지역의 강설 발생에 큰 역할을 한 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 결과는 레윈존데의 연직 분석에서도 확인할 수 있었다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2004년도 ICCAS
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• pp.1330-1333
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• 2004

The methodology for modeling building energy consumption is well established for energy saving calculation in the temperate zone both for performance-based energy retrofitting contracts and measurement and verification (M&V) projects. Mostly, statistical regression models based on utility bills and outdoor dry-bulb temperature have been applied to baseline monthly and annual whole building energy use. This paper presents the application of neural networks (NN) to model landlord energy consumption of commercial buildings in Singapore. Firstly, a brief background information on NN and its application on the building energy research is provided. Secondly, five commercial buildings with various characteristics were selected for case studies. Monthly mean outdoor dry-bulb temperature ($T_0$), Relative Humidity (RH) and Global Solar Radiation (GSR) are used as network inputs and the landlord monthly energy consumption of the same period is the output. Up to three years monthly data are taken as training data. A forecast has been made for another year for all the five buildings. The performance of the NN analysis was evaluated using coefficient of variance (CV). The results show that NNs is powerful at predicting annual landlord energy consumption with high accuracy.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.994-999
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• 2010

The toxin of Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) during summer season has been a problem and early prevention should be considered. A variety of methods can be used to forecast algal blooms and this study aims at examining feasibility of chlorophyll-a. The real-time data were collected by automatic water quality monitoring system (AWQMS) in Daecheong reservoir and invalid data were sorted by experts. And then, the sorted data were filled using linear interpolation. When the concentration of chlorophyll-a increased by $15mg/m^3$, water temperature and pH exceeded $26.8^{\circ}C$ and 9.5 respectively. As a result of correlation between chlorophyll-a and other parameters(i.e. water quality items and hydrological data), temperature (r=0.502 - 0.574), pH (r=0.583 - 0.681), total organic carbon (TOC, r=0.583 - 0.681) comparably had higher values. Meanwhile, the data around a day or two showed the highest correlation. In addition, chlorophyll-a is considered to be significantly effected by precipitation and inflow.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.33-38
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• 2010

Developments of numerical methods are very important to design and analysis for a high subsonic turbine blade. In general, Analysis by experimental investigation has needed a lot of human resources and required time, indispensably, and equipments still have a limit to measure in conditions of high temperature. Rapid technological developments of CPU and integration level of memory make it possible to advance computation with almost exactly simulation so, recent developments of numerical methods are in spotlight. In the present study, the panel method, which is well-known as relatively simplified numerical method, and 2-dimensional ordinary differential Falkner-Skan equation were computed in order to analyze the outer flow, and FVM-based solid heat transfer equation, was also computed to forecast the temperature distribution of the airfoil and the turbine blade. Unstructured grid was constructed in the turbine blade, which has double cooling holes, in order to analyze the internal heat transfer. Cooling fluid was assumed as fully-developed turbulent flow and that circulated in cooling holes.

• 한국초전도ㆍ저온공학회논문지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.18-24
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• 2015

Large wind turbine generators with high temperature superconductors (HTS) are in incessant development because of their advantages such as weight and volume reduction and the increased efficiency compared with conventional technologies. In addition, nowadays the wind turbine market is growing in a function of time, increasing the capacity and energy production of the wind farms installed and increasing the electrical power for the electrical generators installed. As a consequence, it is raising the wind power energy contribution for the global electricity demand. In this study, a forecast of wind energy development will be firstly emphasized, then it continue presenting a recent status of the technology development of large scale HTSG for wind power followed by an explanation of HTS wire trend, cryogenics cooling systems concept, HTS magnets field coil stability and other technological parts for optimization of HTS generator design - operating temperature, design topology, field coil shape and level cost of energy, as well. Finally, the most relevant projects and designs of HTS generators specifically for offshore wind power systems are also mentioned in this study.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.35-46
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• 1988

원자로의 설계나 안전성 분석을 위해서는 핵연료 집합체 내의 유동 구조와 열전달에 대한 지식이 매우 중요하다. 따라서 핵연료 집합체 내의 유체 온도 분포를 정확히 계산하기 위해서는 냉각재 유로 내에서의 속도분포를 정확히 알아야 하는데 이것은 복잡한 난류 현상 때문에 예측하기가 매우 어렵다. 본 연구는 비등방성을 고려한 2-방정식 모형을 사용하여 속도분포를 구하고 핵연료 표면에서의 균일열속을 가정하므로써 유로내에서의 속도 분포를 예측하였다. 수치해는 Galerkin유한 요소법에 의해 핵연료봉 표면까지 구하여졌다. 수치 결과는 알려진 실험치 및 계산치와 비교되어 잘 일치하고 있고, 또한 난류 비등방성이 유로 내의 평균속도와 온도분포에 영향을 미치고 있음을 보았다. 그리고 조밀한 삼각 배열 핵연료 집합체(P/D=1.05-1.3) 내에서 나트륨 냉각재를 사용한 경우의 Nu-P/D관계식을 수립하였다.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제34권10호
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• pp.389-398
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• 1985

Recently maximum power demand of our country has become to be under the great in fluence of electric cooling and air conditioning demand which are sensitive to weather conditions. This paper presents the technique and algorithm to forecast the long-term maximum power demand considering the characteristics of electric power and weather variable. By introducing a weather load model for forecasting long-term maximum power demand with the recent statistic data of power demand, annual maximum power demand is separated into two parts such as the base load component, affected little by weather, and the weather sensitive load component by means of multi-regression analysis method. And we derive the growth trend regression equations of above two components and their individual coefficients, the maximum power demand of each forecasting year can be forecasted with the sum of above two components. In this case we use the coincident dry bulb temperature as the weather variable at the occurence of one-day maximum power demand. As the growth trend regression equation we choose an exponential trend curve for the base load component, and real quadratic curve for the weather sensitive load component. The validity of the forecasting technique and algorithm proposed in this paper is proved by the case study for the present Korean power system.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.242-249
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• 2004

This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purpose of forecasting forest fire danger. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, and temperature. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we need to develop a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire. Forest fore occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using time series weather data sets collected from 8 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were for 5 years from 1997 through 2001. Development of the forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. An eight-province probability model by was developed. The meteorological variables that emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are effective humidity, wind speed, and temperature. A forest fire occurrence danger rating index of through 10 was developed as a function of daily weather index (DWI).

• 대기
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.263-276
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• 2022

The observation error of satellite radiation data that assimilated into the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) was diagnosed by applying the Hollingsworth and Lönnberg and Desrozier techniques commonly used. The magnitude and correlation of the observation error, and the degree of contribution for the satellite radiance data were calculated. The observation errors of the similar device, such as Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A shows different characteristics. The model resolution accounts for only 1% of the observation error, and seasonal variation is not significant factor, either. The observation error used in the KIM is amplified by 3-8 times compared to the diagnosed value or standard deviation of first-guess departures. The new inflation value was calculated based on the correlation between channels and the ratio of background error and observation error. As a result of performing the model sensitivity evaluation by applying the newly inflated observation error of ATMS, the error of temperature and water vapor analysis field were decreased. And temperature and water vapor forecast field have been significantly improved, so the accuracy of precipitation prediction has also been increased by 1.7% on average in Asia especially.