• Title/Summary/Keyword: Technology Valuation Model

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Development of an Overseas Real Estate Valuation Model Considering Changes in Population Structure

  • Gu, Seung-Hwan;Kim, Doo-Suk;Ping, Wang;Jang, Seong-Yong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Aging and fewer economically active people have challenged the assumption of continuous population increases. A new real estate valuation methodology reflecting changes in population structure is thus needed. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between demographic change and changes in real estate prices is analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) to estimate the parameters, and a population structure change (PSC)-Binomial Option Model is developed to assess the volatility of the estimated parameters. Results based on Seoul and Shanghai data are compared. Results - Results of the DCF method indicate that investing in Seoul is better than investing in Shanghai, but the binomial option indicates the opposite. The PSC-binomial option model, reflecting changes in population structure, yields higher values (24.6 million won in Seoul and 43.3 million won in Shanghai) than those given by the binomial option model. Conclusions - This study indicates that applying changes in population structure to existing research, such as in the binomial option model, represents a more accurate real estate valuation method. Results demonstrate that the new model is more accurate than existing models such as the DCF or binomial option.

Valuation of New Growth Businesses by Compound Option Model: Comparison of Solar Cell, Automotive Battery, and Bio-Pharmaceutical (국가 신성장사업의 컴파운드 옵션에 의한 가치평가: 태양전지, 자동차용 전지, 바이오제약의 비교)

  • Kwon, Oh-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.3016-3021
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    • 2011
  • While there is ample information on the investment plans about Korea's selected new growth businesses, it is hard to find any analysis on the valuation of the projects. In this paper, I intend to do a valuation for the three particular technologies, which are solar cell, automotive battery, and bio-pharmaceutical, based on compound option model so that the valuation can capture not only the expected net cash flow but also the value originated from the flexibility of the decision maker. In addition, the real option pricing theory is reviewed and its practical limitations are thoroughly investigated.

A Patent Valuation Method Using Game Theoretic Real Option Approach (실물옵션 게임이론을 이용한 특허가치 평가 방법)

  • Kim, Jinyong;Kim, Jaehee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.43-61
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    • 2015
  • The valuation of patents is very important, since technology competitiveness is crucial for firms to maintain global competitiveness. But, the patent valuation is difficult and challenging because of the uncertainty affecting their returns. Hence, we propose a patent valuation method by incorporating game theory into the real option model, which can not only potentially recognizes the effect of uncertainty on patent value, but also consider investment decision in a competitive market, as a game between firms. With the model, we can consider dynamic strategy involving an option of patent leveraging strategies enabling the firm to switch among compete, cooperate, or wait modes under different demand or competitive advantage condition.

A Study for CT Technology Valuation Methods (CT기술 가치평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ham, Hyung-Bum;Lee, Yang-Sun;Kim, Ki-Hoon;Jung, Woo-Chai
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.1086-1094
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    • 2006
  • The CT is all relation knowledge and technology which are applied to make the culture contents. Recently demand regarding the CT is increasing rapidly with a great growth and high technology of culture contents industry. In this paper we suggest a CT technology valuation model for promoting R & D results and technical diffusion of the CT. Also, It is shown how to derive a value of the CT using simulation. For it, we study a classification and distinctive characteristics of the CT. And this paper reviews the methods of technology valuation that have been developed by valuation specialists.

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A Study on the Build-up Model for the Discount Rate of Technology Valuation including Intellectual Property Risk (지식자산위험을 고려한 기술가치평가 할인율 적산모형에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Oong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.241-263
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    • 2008
  • Within any income approach, a discount rate is used to convert some projected free cash flow to its presented value. In case of valuing companies, the most frequently used discount rate is the weighted average cost of capital(WACC) at the aggregate level. But technology valuation is different to discounting aggregate corporate cash flow since it is concerned about individual Intellectual property. Therefore, blindly applying standard discount rate such as WACC in technology valuation is unlikely to lead to the right result. The primary focus of this paper is to establish the structure of discount rate for technology valuation and to suggest the method of estimation. To determine an appropriate discount rate for technology valuation, the level of technology risk, market risk and competitive risk should be included in the structure of discount rate. This paper suggests the build-up model which consists of three components as a expansion of the CAPM. It includes (1) a risk-free rate of return, (2) general market risk premium and beta and (3) intellectual property risk premium related to technology risk and specific target market risk. However, there is no specific check list for examining the intellectual property risk until now and no specific method for quantifying its risk into risk premium. This paper developed the 10 element to determine the level of the intellectual property risk and applied estimation function such as linear function, natural log function and exponential function to transform the level of risk into risk premium. The limitation of this paper is that the range of intellectual property risk premium is inferred based on the information of foreign and domestic valuation agency. Finally, this paper explored the development of an intellectual property discount rate for technology valuation and presented the method in order to quantify the intellectual property risk premium.

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SIMPLIFIED APPROACH TO VALUATION OF VULNERABLE EXCHANGE OPTION UNDER A REDUCED-FORM MODEL

  • Huh, Jeonggyu;Jeon, Jaegi;Kim, Geonwoo
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we investigate the valuation of vulnerable exchange option that has credit risk of option issuer. The reduced-form model is used to model credit risk. We assume that credit event is determined by the jump of the counting process with stochastic intensity, which follows the mean reverting process. We propose a simple approach to derive the closed-form pricing formula of vulnerable exchange option under the reduced-form model and provide the pricing formula as the standard normal cumulative function.

Development of Systematic Process for Estimating Commercialization Duration and Cost of R&D Performance (기술가치 평가를 위한 기술사업화 기간 및 비용 추정체계 개발)

  • Jun, Seoung-Pyo;Choi, Daeheon;Park, Hyun-Woo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.139-160
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    • 2017
  • Technology commercialization creates effective economic value by linking the company's R & D processes and outputs to the market. This technology commercialization is important in that a company can retain and maintain a sustained competitive advantage. In order for a specific technology to be commercialized, it goes through the stage of technical planning, technology research and development, and commercialization. This process involves a lot of time and money. Therefore, the duration and cost of technology commercialization are important decision information for determining the market entry strategy. In addition, it is more important information for a technology investor to rationally evaluate the technology value. In this way, it is very important to scientifically estimate the duration and cost of the technology commercialization. However, research on technology commercialization is insufficient and related methodology are lacking. In this study, we propose an evaluation model that can estimate the duration and cost of R & D technology commercialization for small and medium-sized enterprises. To accomplish this, this study collected the public data of the National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS) and the survey data provided by the Small and Medium Business Administration. Also this study will develop the estimation model of commercialization duration and cost of R&D performance on using these data based on the market approach, one of the technology valuation methods. Specifically, this study defined the process of commercialization as consisting of development planning, development progress, and commercialization. We collected the data from the NTIS database and the survey of SMEs technical statistics of the Small and Medium Business Administration. We derived the key variables such as stage-wise R&D costs and duration, the factors of the technology itself, the factors of the technology development, and the environmental factors. At first, given data, we estimates the costs and duration in each technology readiness level (basic research, applied research, development research, prototype production, commercialization), for each industry classification. Then, we developed and verified the research model of each industry classification. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. Firstly, it is reflected in the technology valuation model and can be used to estimate the objective economic value of technology. The duration and the cost from the technology development stage to the commercialization stage is a critical factor that has a great influence on the amount of money to discount the future sales from the technology. The results of this study can contribute to more reliable technology valuation because it estimates the commercialization duration and cost scientifically based on past data. Secondly, we have verified models of various fields such as statistical model and data mining model. The statistical model helps us to find the important factors to estimate the duration and cost of technology Commercialization, and the data mining model gives us the rules or algorithms to be applied to an advanced technology valuation system. Finally, this study reaffirms the importance of commercialization costs and durations, which has not been actively studied in previous studies. The results confirm the significant factors to affect the commercialization costs and duration, furthermore the factors are different depending on industry classification. Practically, the results of this study can be reflected in the technology valuation system, which can be provided by national research institutes and R & D staff to provide sophisticated technology valuation. The relevant logic or algorithm of the research result can be implemented independently so that it can be directly reflected in the system, so researchers can use it practically immediately. In conclusion, the results of this study can be a great contribution not only to the theoretical contributions but also to the practical ones.

A Study on the Appropriateness of Intellectual Property Valuation: The Patent Valuation of Korea Technology Finance Corporation (지식재산평가의 적정성에 대한 연구: 기술보증기금의 특허가치평가를 중심으로)

  • Park, Youngsu;Choi, Sungho
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.195-210
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the value of intellectual property rights including patents has been estimated for various purposes. In particular, the evaluation of loans, guarantees and collateral through patent valuation is increasing with the revitalization of technology financing. Although various studies have been conducted on patent valuation, little research has been done on the adequacy of patent valuation. In this study, using the DCF model, which is the most commonly used method of technology valuation, we examine the appropriateness of the patent valuation by comparing and analyzing the estimated value and actual value of the patent. An empirical result shows that the difference between estimated value and the actual value is statistically significant, and there is a significant difference between the estimated value and the actual value depending on the classification of evaluation work. In addition, while there is no difference between professors, patent attorneys, and researchers in the analysis of value differences according to technical evaluators, there is a significant difference between patent attorneys and other evaluators. Finally, we find a significant value difference between estimated value and actual value of technology subject to evaluation by industry.

기술개발 투자안의 최적 포트폴리오 구성에 관한 연구

  • 이현정;이정동;김태유
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.259-277
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we suggest theoretical grounds on the problem of R&D portfolio with different option premiums utilizing the Real Options Model, which has received intensified attention as the method of assessment of R&D project with high risk. Even though there have been many studies focused on the evaluation of option value of single project from technology valuation's perspective. there are few study on the portfolio of multiple technology investment by option value using. This paper bears practical importance by showing simple examples with the option value of investment alternatives and the valuation of related risk, the construction of optimum portfolio in technology investment alternatives.

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Economic Value to Farmers for the Automatic Guidance Technology of Combine (콤바인 무인주행기술의 경제적 가치평가)

  • 이광석;최창현
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.363-370
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    • 2001
  • This study intended to estimate the willingness-to-pay amount by farmers for the automatic guidance technology of Combine. Contingent Valuation Method was employed for this estimation using survey data from 65 Combine using farmers. Based on the dichotomous choice model, farmers’willingness-to-pay for the automatic guidance technology was ranged from ₩4,772,000(median) to ₩5,268,000(mean). The estimated willingness-to-pay by the for the new technology was approximately one quarter of the average value based on the willingness-to-pay for the new technology was approximately one quarter of the average value of Combine in sample farms. This implies that there is an economic rationals for developing the new technology as long as it will be available with the cost less than the amount of estimated willingness-to-pay.

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