• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2010.03a
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• pp.379-389
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• 2010

It is very important to determine a target probability of failure in reliability based design such as an allowable factor of safety in working stress design because they are indices to judge the stability of structures. We have carried out reliability analyses of nationwide gravity type quay walls and found that sliding and foundation failures of quay walls were dominant failure modes for every case of loads. And a target probability of failure for bearing capacity of foundation of quay wall was also determined in this study. Of several approaches which have been suggested until now, a couple of reasonable approaches were used. Firstly, in order to consider the safety margin of structures which have been executed so far, the reliability levels of existing structures were assessed. And then a mean probability of failure for the quay walls was estimated. In addition, life cycle cost(LCC) analyses for representative structures were performed. Probabilities of failure for several quay walls were calculated with changing the width of each quay wall section. LCC of quay wall which is requiring case by case during the service life was evaluated, and also the optimum probability of failure of quay wall which minimizes LCC was found. Finally, reasonable target probabilities of failure were suggested by comparing with mean probability of failure of existing structures.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.12-17
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• 2017

Manned aircraft structural design is based on structural safety factor of 1.5, and this safety factor is equivalent to a probability of failure of between 10-2 and 10-3. The target failure probability of FARs is between 10-6 and 10-9 per flight according to aircraft type. NATO released STANAG 4703 to established the airworthiness requirements for small UAV which is less than 150kg. STANAG 4703 requires the Target Level of Safety according to MTOW. The requirements of failure probability for small UAV is between 10-4 and 10-5. In this paper, requirements of airworthiness certification for small UAV were investigated and the relationship of safety factors to the probability of structural failure is analyzed to reduce measure of safety factor and structural weight of unmanned aircraft.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.267-277
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• 2009

Partial safety factors of the load, resistance, and reliability function are evaluated according to the target probability of failure on sliding mode of monolithical vertical caisson of composite breakwaters. After reliability function is formulated for sliding failure mode of caisson of composite breakwaters regarding bias of wave force, uncertainties of random variables related to loads, strengths are analyzed. Reliability analysis for the various conditions of water depth, geometric, and wave conditions is performed using Level II AFDA model for the sliding failure. Furthermore, the reliability model is also applied to the real caisson of composite breakwaters of Daesan, Dong- hae, and Pohang harbor. By comparing the required width of caisson of composite breakwater according to target probability of failure with the other results, the partial safety factors evaluated in this study are calibrated straightforwardly. Even though showing a little difference on the 1% of target probability, it may be found that the present results agree well with the other results in every other target probability of failure.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.508-518
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• 2008

Reliability and sensitivity analysis of the design parameters for a section of caisson type quaywall which is the most applicable in Korea were performed. It was tried to estimate probabilities of failure for the system of the multiple failure modes and to analyze LCC in the quaywall structure. The reliability analysis was performed by FORM. Also, sensitivity indices were estimated using the reliability indices, which may be used inferring effects of each design parameter on the reliability indices. As a result, the coefficient of friction between caisson and rubble, the moment by self weight and the moment of resistance mostly affected on the reliability indices in the sliding, overturning and foundation failure, respectively. System reliability theorem was applied in order to estimate the probabilities of failure for the system of the multiple failure modes. As the results of estimation of the probabilities of failure for the system, all cases were more conservative than those for the elements, according to both failure mode and load combination applied to series system. It entirely exceeded the target reliability index, but it was consistent with the theorem. According to the optimum LCC with the width of the caisson, the probability of failure exceeded the target probability of failure at then time. Therefore, it was judged to be insufficient to the practical application.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2010

The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors were evaluated by applying the cost optimization to the rubble mound breakwaters in Korea. The applied method was developed by Hans F. Burcharth and John D. Sorensen in relation to the PIANC Working Group 47. The optimum return period was determined as 50 years in many cases and was found as 100 years in the case of high real interest rate. Target failure probability was suggested by using the probabilities of failure corresponding to the optimum return period and those of reliability analysis of existing structures. The final target failure probability is about 60% for the initial limit state of the national design standard and then the overall safety factor is calculated as 1.09. It is required that the nominal diameter and weight of armor are respectively 9% and 30% larger than those of the existing design method. Moreover, partial safety factors considering the cost optimization were compared with those calculated by Level 2 analysis and a fairly good agreement was found between the two methods especially the failure probability less than 40%.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.249-259
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• 2020

Design criteria for limit state design of underground structures have already been published overseas, and research has been conducted to revise the design method in Korea. In order to estimate the probability of failure under seismic load, the probability variable should be considered in the reliability analysis. In this study, the failure probability of the existing shield tunnel segment lining design was calculated by applying the coefficient of variation (COV) for the earth pressure and the seismic load effect in consideration of the statistical characteristics of the domestic ground properties. Based on the results of calculating the reliability index (β) from the calculated probability of failure and analyzing the reliability index according to the change in the load factor and the results of domestic and foreign research, the target reliability index (β_T) during earthquakes of shield tunnel segment lining is analyzed to be "2.3", it was proposed as the target reliability index for the design of the limit state under seismic load.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• Computational Structural Engineering : An International Journal
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.11-17
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• 2002

Cost-effectiveness in design is considered for determining the target reliability of concrete bridges under seismic actions. This objective can be achieved based on the economic optimization of the expected life-cycle cost of a bridge, which includes initial cost, direct losses, and indirect losses of a bridge due to strong earthquakes over its lifetime. A separating factor is defined to consider the redundancy of a transportation network. The Park-Ang damage model is employed to define the damage of a bridge under seismic action, and a Monte Carlo method based on the DRAIN-2DX program is developed to assess the failure probability of a bridge. The results for an example bridge analyzed in this paper show that the optimal target failure probability depends on the traffic volume carried by the bridge and is between 1.0×10/sup -3/ to 3.0×10/sup -3/ over a life of 50 years.

• Architectural research
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.71-80
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• 2001

It is quite difficult to calculate the collapse probability of a system such as statically indeterminate structure that has many possible modes or paths to complete failure and the problem has remained essentially unsolved. A structure is synthesized by several components or elements and its capacity to resist the given loads is a function of the capacity of the individual element. Thus it is reasonable to assess the probability of failure of the system based upon those of its elements. This paper proposes an efficient technique to directly assess the reliability of a complex structural system from the reliabilities of its components or elements. The theory for the calculation of the probability of a structural system is presented. The target requirements of the method and the fundamental assumptions governing the method are clearly stated. A portal frame and two trusses are selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the method by comparing the results obtained from the proposed method to those from the existing methods in the literature.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.35-44
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• 2003

A system reliability method is proposed to decide reliable serviceability of agricultural irrigation system. Even though reliability method is applied to real engineering situations involving actual life environments and maintaining costs, a number of Issues arise as a modeling and analysis level. This article use concepts that can be described the probability of failure with time variant and series-parallel system reliability analysis model. A proposed method use survivor function that can simulate a time-variant performance function for a lifetime before it is required essential maintenance or replacement to define a target probability of failure in agricultural irrigation canal. In the further study, it is required a relationship between a state of probability of failure and current serviceability to make the optimum repair strategy to maintain appropriate serviceability of an irrigation system.