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A Study on the Operation Plan of the Gangwon-do Disaster Management Resources Integrated Management Center (강원도 재난관리자원 통합관리센터 운영방안에 관한 연구)

  • Hang-Il Jo;Sang-Beom Park;Kye-Won Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2024
  • In Korea, as disasters become larger and more complex, there is a trend of shifting from a focus on response and recovery to a focus on prevention and preparedness. In order to prevent and prepare for disasters, each local government manages disaster management resources by stockpiling them. However, although disaster management resources are stored in individual warehouses, they are managed by department rather than by warehouse, resulting in insufficient management of disaster management resources due to the heavy workload of those in charge. In order to intensively manage these disaster management resources, an integrated disaster management resource management center is established and managed at the metropolitan/provincial level. In the case of Gangwon-do, the subject of this study, a warehouse is rented and operated as an integrated disaster management resource management center. When leasing an integrated management center, there is the inconvenience of having to move the location every 1 to 2 years, so it is deemed necessary to build a dedicated facility in an available site. To select a location candidate, network analysis was used to measure access to and use of facilities along interconnected routes of networks such as roads and railways. During network analysis, the Location-Allocation method, which was widely used in the past to determine the location of multiple facilities, was applied. As a result, Hoengseong-gun in Gangwon-do was identified as a suitable candidate site. In addition, if the integrated management center uses our country's logistics system to stockpile disaster management resources, local governments can mobilize disaster management resources in 3 days, and it is said that it takes 3 days to return to normal life after a disaster occurs. Each city's disaster management resource stockpile is 3 days' worth per week, and the integrated management center stores 3 times the maximum of the city's 4-day stockpile.

A Study on the Change of Cyber Attacks in North Korea (북한의 사이버 공격 변화 양상에 대한 연구)

  • Chanyoung Park;Hyeonsik Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2024
  • The U.N. Security Council's North Korea Sanctions Committee estimated that the amount of North Korea's cyberattacks on virtual asset-related companies from 2017 to 2023 was about 4 trillion won. North Korea's cyberattacks have secured funds through cryptocurrency hacking as it has been restricted from securing foreign currency due to economic sanctions by the international community, and it also shows the form of technology theft against defense companies, and illegal assets are being used to maintain the Kim Jong-un regime and develop nuclear and missile development. When North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test on September 3, 2017, and declared the completion of its national nuclear armament following the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile on November 29 of the same year, the U.N. imposed sanctions on North Korea, which are considered the strongest economic sanctions in history. In these difficult economic situations, North Korea tried to overcome the crisis through cyberattacks, but as a result of analyzing the changes through the North's cyber attack cases, the strategic goal from the first period from 2009 to 2016 was to verify and show off North Korea's cyber capabilities through the neutralization of the national network and the takeover of information, and was seen as an intention to create social chaos in South Korea. When foreign currency earnings were limited due to sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the second stage seized virtual currency and secured funds to maintain the Kim Jong-un regime and advance nuclear and missile development. The third stage is a technology hacking of domestic and foreign defense companies, focusing on taking over key technologies to achieve the five strategic weapons tasks proposed by Chairman Kim Jong-un at the 8th Party Congress in 2021. At the national level, security measures for private companies as well as state agencies should be established against North Korea's cyberattacks, and measures for legal systems, technical problems, and budgets related to science are urgently needed. It is also necessary to establish a system and manpower to respond to the ever-developing cyberattacks by focusing on cultivating and securing professional manpower such as white hackers.

A Study on the Factors Influencing Catastrophic Health Expenditure of the Elderly Living Alone (독거노인의 재난적 의료비 지출 영향요인 분석)

  • Jung-Hoon Kim;Heenyun Kim;Seokjun Moon;Ju-Hyun Park;Hyoung-Sun Jeong
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.319-333
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    • 2024
  • Background: This study aims to identify the factors that influence the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) for the elderly living alone and to discuss how to manage CHE for the elderly living alone. Methods: This study utilizes 6th (2016), 7th (2018), and 8th (2020) data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging to identify the incidence rate of CHE among the elderly living alone and conducts a panel logit analysis. The dependent variable is the incidence of CHE (thresholds: 10%, 20%, 30%), and the independent variables include demographic factors (gender, age group, region), socioeconomic factors (education level, economic activity status, income quintile, financial support rate from children), health-related factors (subjective health status, regular exercise, smoking, drinking, number of chronic diseases), and healthcare coverage factors (type of health insurance, private health insurance). Results: Descriptive statistics classified by gender show that female elderly living alone are more vulnerable than male elderly living alone in terms of disease prevalence and socioeconomic status. In addition, the incidence of CHE is higher for elderly women living alone than for elderly men living alone across all thresholds. The main results of the panel logit analysis show that higher education, income quintile, and financial support rate from children are associated with lower odds of CHE, while poorer subjective health and a higher number of chronic diseases are associated with higher odds of CHE. Medical aid recipients are less likely to incur CHE than those covered by national health insurance. Conclusion: The implications of this study are as follows. First, vulnerable elderly living alone with multiple chronic diseases and low income and education levels are more likely to incur CHE. Second, it is necessary to review policies such as a CHE support program and chronic disease management programs focused on vulnerable elderly individuals living alone. Third, the CHE support program should be operated in a patient-centered manner, with consideration given to a customized system for selecting and supporting elderly individuals living alone who are in need.

Education for Philosophy of Leadership Using Yulgok's 《Seonghakjipyo》 (율곡 『성학집요』를 활용한 지도자 철학교육)

  • 황정희
    • 유학연구
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    • v.46
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    • pp.53-78
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    • 2019
  • Our leaders and our nation exerted lots of efforts and sacrifices to make rapid change and development of our country in modern times. However, recently their negative images were gradually exposed to us, making our nation have their aspiration for well-conditioned leaders, along with their own responsibilities. For this study, who are good leaders and what are needed for them were deeply thought of. Although there was no clear solution, this study made a premise that the leaders should be nourished to have benevolence, knowledge, bravery and deed, realizing political activities to give our nation satisfactory results. For this, the leaders, for themselves, should make philosophical thoughts for becoming good leaders and for executing their thoughts. However, they are confronted with many problems to do so in real world. Therefore, it is necessary to consistently give them an country-level education for philosophy of leadership for them to form their own philosophical thoughts and to realize their thoughts in our actual lives. One type of method for that can be accomplished through contents of 《Seonghakjipyo》, written by Yulgok Yi yi (李珥, 1536~1584), for the hope of saint king. In this book, he described in details the sayings of the saints and his own thoughts on what should be learnt and practiced for doing self-discipline and ruling the country, adding that it was useful and common to all as well as the leaders. It can be said that this book is very usefulto educate philosophy of leadership for modern leaders, for it is containing the contents both for individuals to learn and practice for restoration of their human nature and for leaders to directly utilize in real political world. This argument may be originated from the fact that the wisdom and the deed needed for good leaders are, in general, all the same, although the system of the great organization like country has been changed. Based on the sections of Self-discipline and Politics in the above book, this study argued the general education for philosophy of leadership. It is focused on definition of education for philosophy of leadership, its meaning in 《Seonghakjipyo》, the reason for using the above book for it, and the suggestion of concrete methods to solve insufficiency of education programs at present for leaders and to execute education for philosophy of leadership that can be practicable in real world. This study showed that the above book could be used for education for philosophy of leadership, arguing that such education could be useful for independently solving many problems both the leaders and our nation might be confronted with in our lives.

Stratigraphic response to tectonic evolution of sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea and adjacent areas (황해 및 인접 지역 퇴적분지들의 구조적 진화에 따른 층서)

  • Ryo In Chang;Kim Boo Yang;Kwak won Jun;Kim Gi Hyoun;Park Se Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.8 no.1_2 s.9
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    • pp.1-43
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    • 2000
  • A comparison study for understanding a stratigraphic response to tectonic evolution of sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea and adjacent areas was carried out by using an integrated stratigraphic technology. As an interim result, we propose a stratigraphic framework that allows temporal and spatial correlation of the sedimentary successions in the basins. This stratigraphic framework will use as a new stratigraphic paradigm for hydrocarbon exploration in the Yellow Sea and adjacent areas. Integrated stratigraphic analysis in conjunction with sequence-keyed biostratigraphy allows us to define nine stratigraphic units in the basins: Cambro-Ordovician, Carboniferous-Triassic, early to middle Jurassic, late Jurassic-early Cretaceous, late Cretaceous, Paleocene-Eocene, Oligocene, early Miocene, and middle Miocene-Pliocene. They are tectono-stratigraphic units that provide time-sliced information on basin-forming tectonics, sedimentation, and basin-modifying tectonics of sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea and adjacent area. In the Paleozoic, the South Yellow Sea basin was initiated as a marginal sag basin in the northern margin of the South China Block. Siliciclastic and carbonate sediments were deposited in the basin, showing cyclic fashions due to relative sea-level fluctuations. During the Devonian, however, the basin was once uplifted and deformed due to the Caledonian Orogeny, which resulted in an unconformity between the Cambro-Ordovician and the Carboniferous-Triassic units. The second orogenic event, Indosinian Orogeny, occurred in the late Permian-late Triassic, when the North China block began to collide with the South China block. Collision of the North and South China blocks produced the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu-Imjin foldbelts and led to the uplift and deformation of the Paleozoic strata. Subsequent rapid subsidence of the foreland parallel to the foldbelts formed the Bohai and the West Korean Bay basins where infilled with the early to middle Jurassic molasse sediments. Also Piggyback basins locally developed along the thrust. The later intensive Yanshanian (first) Orogeny modified these foreland and Piggyback basins in the late Jurassic. The South Yellow Sea basin, however, was likely to be a continental interior sag basin during the early to middle Jurassic. The early to middle Jurassic unit in the South Yellow Sea basin is characterized by fluvial to lacustrine sandstone and shale with a thick basal quartz conglomerate that contains well-sorted and well-rounded gravels. Meanwhile, the Tan-Lu fault system underwent a sinistrai strike-slip wrench movement in the late Triassic and continued into the Jurassic and Cretaceous until the early Tertiary. In the late Jurassic, development of second- or third-order wrench faults along the Tan-Lu fault system probably initiated a series of small-scale strike-slip extensional basins. Continued sinistral movement of the Tan-Lu fault until the late Eocene caused a megashear in the South Yellow Sea basin, forming a large-scale pull-apart basin. However, the Bohai basin was uplifted and severely modified during this period. h pronounced Yanshanian Orogeny (second and third) was marked by the unconformity between the early Cretaceous and late Eocene in the Bohai basin. In the late Eocene, the Indian Plate began to collide with the Eurasian Plate, forming a megasuture zone. This orogenic event, namely the Himalayan Orogeny, was probably responsible for the change of motion of the Tan-Lu fault system from left-lateral to right-lateral. The right-lateral strike-slip movement of the Tan-Lu fault caused the tectonic inversion of the South Yellow Sea basin and the pull-apart opening of the Bohai basin. Thus, the Oligocene was the main period of sedimentation in the Bohai basin as well as severe tectonic modification of the South Yellow Sea basin. After the Oligocene, the Yellow Sea and Bohai basins have maintained thermal subsidence up to the present with short periods of marine transgressions extending into the land part of the present basins.

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Ecological Studies on the Transition of Sheath Blight of Rice in Korea (한국(韓國)에서의 벼 잎집무늬마름병 발생변동(發生變動)에 관(關)한 생태학적(生態學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Yu, Seung-hun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.283-316
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    • 1977
  • In an attempt to obtain a basic information to develop an effective integrated system of controlling sheath blight of rice in Korea, the transition of this disease, the variation of cultural characters and pathogenicity of the pathogen, environmental conditions affecting the disease outbreak and varietal resistance have been investigated. 1. Rice sheath blight which has been minor disease in the past was widely spread, especially since 1971. This disease has promptly spread all over the country and infected 65.2% of total rice growing area in 1976. Various factors are considered to be related to such transition of this disease. Above all, increace of application of nitrogenous fertilizer, early season and earlier cultivation of rice, introduction of more susceptible "Tongil" varieties etc. must be important factors influencing the outbreak of this disease. 2. Great variations in cultural characteristics-such as mycelial growth rate, color of the medium, amount of the aerial mycelium, shape and color of the sclerotia- and in the pathogenicity of isolates of the pathogen, Thanatephorus cucumeris Dank were observed. The optimum temperature for mycelial growth also varied with isolates, from $25^{\circ}C$ to $30^{\circ}C$. There were not necessarily any correlation between curtural characteristics and pathogenicity of isolates of Thanatephorus cucumens. 3. Mycelial grow th of isolates of Thanatephorus cucumens on the PDA medium were correlated with the air temperatures of the region where the isolates were collected. The isolates from the regions with high temperature grew well on PDA medium at $35^{\circ}C$ than those from the region with low temperature, on the other hand, the isolates from the regions with the low temperature grew well on the same medium at $12^{\circ}C$ than those from the regions with high temperature. 4. Pectin polygalacturonase (PG) and cellulase (Cx) were most active on the 3rd day after inoculation on the leaves of rice plant with Thanatephorus cucumeris, whereas pectin methylestrase (PE) was most active on the 4th day after inoculation. Relationship between the activities of PE of isolates and the strength of pathogenicity of isolates was obtained, but PG and cellulase activities were not correlated with pathogenicity of isolates. 5. The tolerence of sclerotia from in-vitro culture to low temperature varied with their water content, the dried cultural sclerotia were more tolerent than wet ones, Dried cultural sclerotia maintained almost 100% germinability for 45 days at $-20^{\circ}C$, whereas wet sclerotia lost viability at $-5^{\circ}C$. The germination ratio of the sclerotia after overwintering changed from 18% to 70% according to the water content of the test paddy fields and the ratio was low in wet paddy condition. 6. To investigate the host range of this fungi in and near paddy field, 17 weeds were inoculated with fungi. The lesions of sheath blight disease was obserbed on Sagittaria trifolia L., Echinochloa crusgalli P. Beauv., Monochoria vaginal is Presl, Polygonum Hydropiper L., Eclipta prostrata L., Digitaria sanguinalis Scapoli. 7. When the level of nitrogen applied was doubled over standard level, total nitrogen content in rice sheath increased, ami when silicate was applied, starch content in rice sheath decreased, inducing the rice plants more susceptible to sheath blight disease. Increased dressing of potash ferilizer reduced the incidence of sheat blight disease. 8. The percentage of infected stems in the early period increased more in the narrow hill plot than in the wide hill plot, but in the late period this tendency was inversed; the percentage of infected stems as well as severity in the wide hill plot increased more compared to the narrow hill plot, and the disease severity in the one plant per hill plot was also low. The number of stems in the wide hill plot was more than the number of stems in the narrow hill plot. This indicates that the microclimate, such as the relative humidity, in the narrow hill plot was more favorable for the development of this disease. 9. There was a high negative correlation between the disease severity of varieties to the sheath blight and the maturity of the varieties, that is, the early varieties were more susceptible than the late ones, and much-tillering varieties usually showed more infection than less tillering varieties. 10. No relationship was obtained between the percentage of infected stems in the early period and the severity after heading, whereas a distinct relationship was obtained between former and latter after Aug. 10.

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한국 청소년의 약물남용과 비행행위

  • 김성이
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 1988
  • I. Introduction Since the 1970's drug abuse among young people has increasingly become a social problem in Korea. In the 1980's, drug abuse, especially glue sniffing, has become the cause of many unfortunated incidents resulting in harm to others as well as the abusers themselves. Taking into consideration of the seriousness of this problem, the Republic of Korea National Red Cross initiated a nation-wide research programme, to understand the present situation and to raise the level of public awareness. The goal of this research was to begin a nation - wide campaign against drug abuse. The research team was composed of the Advisary Committee members and the staff of the Youth Department of the Republic of Korea National Red Cross. The data were collected in February 1988 with the collaboration of the staff and volunteers in the local Chapters. The respondents were allocated nation-wide by the quota sampling method. The questionnaires were distributed to the respondents in three groups :2, 700 to junior and senior high school students, 605 to working youths, and 916 to delinquent youths. A total of 4, 221 questionnaires were collected. II. Characteristics of the Respondents The respondents in each group were selected evenly from rural and urban areas. The general characteristics of the respondents can be described as follow: in case of students, the proportions between male and female respondents, and between senior high school and junior high school students were almost evenly distributed. In case of working youths, the proportion of females (80.5%) was higher than those of the students and the delinquents groups. Delinquent youths were defined as those currently being under custody of the centers for juvenile delinquents. Of this number, 38.8% and 68.2% were junior and senior high school drop-outs respectively. The majority of them (92.6%) were male. As for the family background of the respondents, the proportion of those residing in poverty - stricken areas, and the proportion of those from broken families were higher in case of working youths and delinquent youths than those in case of students. III. Present Patterns of Drug Abuse The following summarizes the presents of drug abuse, as tabulated from the results of the survey. 1. Smoking The percentage of youths who smoke was 36% in the student group, 32% m the working youths group, and 94.4% in the delinquent youths group. 2. Alcohol 50.3% of students, 71.6% of working youths, and 93.3% of delinquent youths has experienced drinking alcohol beverages. 3. Tonic: non - alcoholic, caffeinated beverages popular in Korea and Japan The percentage of those who have used tonic at least once was over 90% in all of the three groups. 4. Sedative About 70% of each group has used sedative with the proportion of working youths use higher than those in other groups. 5. Stimulants Those who have used stimulants comprised around 15% in each group. 6. Tranquilizers Somewhat less than 5% of students and working youths, and 28% of delinquent youths, have used tranquilizers. 7. Hypnotics The users of hypnotics amounted to 0.4% of students, 2.6% of working youths and 7.1% of delinquent youths. 8. Marihuana Those who have used marihuana indicated 0.7% of students, 0.8% of working youths, and 13% of delinquent youths. 9. Glue-sniffing The percentage of glue-sniffing was 3.7%, 5% in the students group and in the youths group respectively, but the proportion was unusually high, at 40.7% in the delinquent youths group. From the results of the survey the present situation of drug abuse in Korea can be summarized as follows: 1. A high percentage of Korean youths have experienced smoking cigarettes and drinking alcoholic beverages. 2. Tonics (non - alcoholic, caffeinated beverages), antipyretic analgesics and stimulants quite regularly used. 3. Tranquilizers, hypnotics, marihuana and glue-sniffing are more widely used among delinquent youths than the other youths. From this fact, there exists a correlation between drug abuse and juvenile delinquency. IV. Time-series Analysis of the First Experience of Drug Abuse and Deviant Behaviour The respoundents were asked when they were first exposed to drugs and when they committed deviant acts. By calculating the average age of each experience, the following pattern was found (See Figure 1). Youths are first exposed to drugs by abuse of tonic(non - alcoholic, caffeinated beverages). At the age of 13, they amoke cigarettes, the use of antipyretic analgesics begins at 14 year old, while at the age of 15, they use tranquilizers, and at 16 hynotics. The period of drug abuse which starts from drinking caffeinated beverages and smoking cigarettes and ends in the use of hypnotics takes about three years. During this period, other delinquent behaviours begin to surface, that is, at the age of 13 when smoking cigarettes begins, the delinquent behaviour pattern starts with truancy. Next, they start taking money from others by using physical force. Prior to the age of 15, they are suspended from school, become hostile to adults, begin running away from home, and start using stimulants and alcohol. Soon they become involved even in glue-sniffing and in the use of marihuana. At the age of 15, they begin to see adult videos and carry weapons. Sexual promiscuity and usage of tranquilizers follows the viewing of adult videos. Consequently, by the time they reach the age of 16, they visit drinking establishments, and are picked up by police for committing delinquent acts. And finally, they come to use hypnotic - type drugs. From the above descriptions, drug abuse can be assumed to have a close correlation with delinquent behaviour. V. Social Factors Related to Drug Abuse As for the Korean youths, glue-sniffing is found to he related to aggressive delinquency, in such cases as run - aways, being picked up by the police, and taking money by force. Smoking cigarettes and drinking alcohol is found to be related to seeing adult videos and visiting drinking establishments. Hypnotics and marihuana were found to be representive of drugs which are related to degenerational delinquency, irrespective of social delinquency. The social factors connected with these drug abuse are as follows: 1. Individual factors Male students were more heavily involved in the usage of drug than females. Youths who do not attend church were more likely to be involved in drugs than those who attend. 2. Family factors The youths who were displeased with their mothers smoking and those who thought their parents did not love each other, or those whose parents had used drugs without prescription, were more likely to he drug users. 3. School factors Those youths who found school life boring, were unsuccessful in their studies, spend most of their time with friends, feel their teachers smoke too much, those who had a positive perception of their teachers smoking were likely to he drug users. To sum up, drug abusers depend on the influence of their parents, teachers and peers. IV. Reasons for Drug Abuse Korean students have mainly used drugs to release stress (42.8%), to stay awake (19.7%), and because of the easy accessibility of drugs( 16.6%). Other reasons are due to their ignorance of the side effects of the drugs (3.6%), natural curiosity (4.2%), and to increase strength(3.O%). From the above facts, the major reasons for drug abuse among Korean youths are to release stress and to stay awake in order to prepare exams. Furthermore, since drugs are readily available, we can conclude that drug abuse is caused by the school system(such as entrance exams) in Korea. VII. Conclusion Drug usage among Korean youths are relatively less common than those of western youths. In some cases, such as, glue-sniffing and use of stimulants, the pattern of drug abuse is found. Moreover, early drug abuse is evident, and it has a close connection with deviant behaviour, resulting in juvenile delinquency. Drug abuse cannot be attributed to any one social factor. Specifically, drug abuse depends on parents, peers, teachers and other members of the community, and also is influenced by social institutions such as the entrance exam system. Every person and organization concerned with youth must participate collectively in restraining drug abuse. Finally, it is suggested that social agencial working for youth welfare should make every effort to tackle this serious problem confronted by the Korean youths today.

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Optimum Management Plan for Soil Contamination Facilities (특정토양오염관리대상시설의 최적 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Soo;Kim, Ki-Ho;Kim, Hae-Keum;Choi, Sang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.293-300
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    • 2012
  • This study was to investigate the unsuitable rate of the storage facilities, the changes in corrosion process over time after installation according to the status, the time to install the facilities, years elapsed after facilities installation, inspection of methods and motivation, and so on, based on the results of the inspection at the petroleum storage facilities conducted by domestic soil-relate specialized agency to derive optimal management plans which meet the status of soil contamination facilities. The results showed that the facilities more than 5 years after the initial leak test at the time of the installation need to be inspected periodically by considering costs of leak test and remediation of polluted soil. The inspection period can be decided by cost and leak test methods showing discrepancies for the results obtained from individual test whether it was direct or indirect. To compensate these matters, we suggested that the direct inspection method on regular schedule is recommended. On the other hand, the inspection can be voluntarily completed to ease burden of the results by inspection or equivalent level to this inspection method. Also, it may need improved construction supervision and performance test system to minimize the occurrence of the nature defects in installing the facilities as well as the upgrade program for the facilities during intervals of inspection period.

Influence analysis of Internet buzz to corporate performance : Individual stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of online news (온라인 언급이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 분석 : 뉴스 감성분석을 통한 기업별 주가 예측)

  • Jeong, Ji Seon;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 2015
  • Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.