• 제목/요약/키워드: System Performance Prediction

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A Study on Development of Pavement Management System for Cement Concrete Pavement (시멘트콘크리트포장의 유지관리체계(PMS)에 관한 연구)

  • 엄주용;김남호;임승욱
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.363-369
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    • 1996
  • PMS(Pavement Management System) is the effective and efficient decision making system to provide pavements in an acceptable condition at the lowest life-cycle cost. As the highway system become larger, the necessity of the PMS in increasing. As of December 1995, the 3rd stage of PMS project was completed. The accomplishment of the research work can be itemized to the followings : $\bullet$ Calibration of PMS submodules (1) Pavement Condition Evaluation Model (2) Pavement Distress Prediction Model (3) Pavement Performance Prediction Mode (4) Selection of Pavement Rehabilitation Criteria (5) Optimization Technique for PMS Economic Analysis $\bullet$ Development of Computer Program to Implement PMS Logic $\bullet$ A Study to Implement the Automized Pavement Condition Survey Equipment to PMS $\bullet$ PMS Test Run $\bullet$ Development of PMS Operation Guideline $\bullet$ The 2nd Pavement Condition Survey for Long-Term Pavement Performance Monitoring.

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Prediction-based Interacting Multiple Model Estimation Algorithm for Target Tracking with Large Sampling Periods

  • Ryu, Jon-Ha;Han, Du-Hee;Lee, Kyun-Kyung;Song, Taek-Lyul
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.44-53
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    • 2008
  • An interacting multiple model (IMM) estimation algorithm based on the mixing of the predicted state estimates is proposed in this paper for a right continuous jump-linear system model different from the left-continuous system model used to develop the existing IMM algorithm. The difference lies in the modeling of the mode switching time. Performance of the proposed algorithm is compared numerically with that of the existing IMM algorithm for noisy system identification. Based on the numerical analysis, the proposed algorithm is applied to target tracking with a large sampling period for performance comparison with the existing IMM.

A Study on the Simplified Presumption Method for the Prediction of Cooling and Heating Performance in a Fresh Air Load Reduction System by Using Geothermal Energy (지열 이용 외기부하 저감시스템의 냉각 및 가열효과 예측 간이추정법에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Won-Tug;Choi, Young-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.169-181
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a feasibility study of a fresh air load reduction system by using an underground double floor space. The fresh air is introduced into the double slab space and passes through the opening bored into the footing beam. The air is cooled by the heat exchange with the inside surface of the double slab space in summer, and heated in winter. This system not only reduces sensible heat load of the fresh air by heat exchange with earth but also reduces latent heat load of the fresh air by ad/de-sorption of underground double slab concrete. In this paper, we proposed a simplified presumption method for the prediction of cooling and heating performance in the system. In conclusion the proposed method has been verified by comparing with the calculated value of the numerical analysis model by using nonlinear two-dimension hygroscopic question.

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Study on the Contra-Rotating Propeller system design and full-scale performance prediction method

  • Min, Keh-Sik;Chang, Bong-Jun;Seo, Heung-Won
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2009
  • A ship's screw-propeller produces thrust by rotation and, at the same time, generates rotational flow behind the propeller. This rotational flow has no contribution to the generation of thrust, but instead produces energy loss. By recovering part of the lost energy in the rotational flow, therefore, it is possible to improve the propulsion efficiency. The contra-rotating propeller (CRP) system is the representing example of such devices. Unfortunately, however, neither a design method nor a full-scale performance prediction procedure for the CRP system has been well established yet. The authors have long performed studies on the CRP system, and some of the results from the authors' studies shall be presented and discussed.

Performance and Analysis of Linear Prediction Algorithm for Robust Localization System (앰비언트 디스플레이 위치추적 시스템의 데이터 손실에 대한 선형 예측 알고리즘 적용 및 분석)

  • Kim, Joo-Youn;Yun, Gi-Hun;Kim, Keon-Wook;Kim, Dae-Hee;Park, Soo-Jun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2008
  • This paper suggests the robust localization system in the application of ambient display with multiple ultrasonic range sensors. The ambient display provides the interactive image and video to improve the quality of life, especially for low mobility elders. Due to the limitation of indoor localization, this paper employs linear prediction algorithm to recover the missing information based on AR(Autoregressive) model by using Yule-Walker method. Numerous speculations from prediction error and computation load are considered to decide the optimal length of referred data and order. The results of these analyses demonstrate that the linear prediction algorithm with the 16th order and 50 reference data can improve reliability of the system in average 74.39% up to 97.97% to meet the performance of interactive system.

A Study on the Damping Loads Prediction to prevent Harmonic Resonance during the Power System Restoration (전력계통의 정전복구시 고조파 공진억제를 위한 완충부하투입량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Heung-Jae;Yu, Won-Kun
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.7
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    • pp.913-917
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    • 2013
  • During the restoration process of primary restorative transmission system, some over voltages may happen due to nonlinear interaction between unloaded transformers and transmission systems. These over voltages caused by harmonic resonance can be suppressed by inserting damping loads before energizing transformers. But it is very difficult to predict the occurrence possibility of harmonic resonance and complex simulation must be repeated to estimate the sufficient damping loads. This paper presents a damping loads prediction system to prevent harmonic resonance. Detailed analysis of the relationship between harmonic resonance and the amount of damping loads is discussed. The prediction system is developed using a curve fitting and a neural network based on this relationship. A curve fitting used a Gaussian function based on non-linear least square method and multi-layer back-propagation neural network is applied. The system is applied to primary restorative transmission lines in korean power system and the result showed satisfactory performance.

WRF-Based Short-Range Forecast System of the Korea Air Force : Verification of Prediction Skill in 2009 Summer (WRF 기반 공군 단기 수치 예보 시스템 : 2009년 하계 모의 성능 검증)

  • Byun, Ui-Yong;Hong, Song-You;Shin, Hyeyum;Lee, Ji-Woo;Song, Jae-Ik;Hahm, Sook-Jung;Kim, Jwa-Kyum;Kim, Hyung-Woo;Kim, Jong-Suk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.197-208
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.

Development of a Frontal Collision Detection Algorithm Using Laser Scanners (레이져 스캐너를 이용한 전방 충돌 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-Hwi;Han, Kwang-Jin;Cho, Sang-Min;Kim, Yong-Sun;Huh, Kun-Soo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.113-118
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    • 2012
  • Collision detection plays a key role in collision mitigation system. The malfunction of the collision mitigation system can result in another dangerous situation or unexpected feeling to driver and passenger. To prevent this situation, the collision time, offset, and collision decision should be determined from the appropriate collision detection algorithm. This study focuses on a method to determine the time to collision (TTC) and frontal offset (FO) between the ego vehicle and the target object. The path prediction method using the ego vehicle information is proposed to improve the accuracy of TTC and FO. The path prediction method utilizes the ego vehicle motion data for better prediction performance. The proposed algorithm is developed based on laser scanner. The performance of the proposed detection algorithm is validated in simulations and experiments.

Soft computing techniques in prediction Cr(VI) removal efficiency of polymer inclusion membranes

  • Yaqub, Muhammad;EREN, Beytullah;Eyupoglu, Volkan
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.418-425
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    • 2020
  • In this study soft computing techniques including, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) were investigated for the prediction of Cr(VI) transport efficiency by novel Polymer Inclusion Membranes (PIMs). Transport experiments carried out by varying parameters such as time, film thickness, carrier type, carier rate, plasticizer type, and plasticizer rate. The predictive performance of ANN and ANFIS model was evaluated by using statistical performance criteria such as Root Mean Standard Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Coefficient of Determination (R2). Moreover, Sensitivity Analysis (SA) was carried out to investigate the effect of each input on PIMs Cr(VI) removal efficiency. The proposed ANN model presented reliable and valid results, followed by ANFIS model results. RMSE and MAE values were 0.00556, 0.00163 for ANN and 0.00924, 0.00493 for ANFIS model in the prediction of Cr(VI) removal efficiency on testing data sets. The R2 values were 0.973 and 0.867 on testing data sets by ANN and ANFIS, respectively. Results show that the ANN-based prediction model performed better than ANFIS. SA demonstrated that time; film thickness; carrier type and plasticizer type are major operating parameters having 33.61%, 26.85%, 21.07% and 8.917% contribution, respectively.

Analysis of Online Behavior and Prediction of Learning Performance in Blended Learning Environments

  • JO, Il-Hyun;PARK, Yeonjeong;KIM, Jeonghyun;SONG, Jongwoo
    • Educational Technology International
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2014
  • A variety of studies to predict students' performance have been conducted since educational data such as web-log files traced from Learning Management System (LMS) are increasingly used to analyze students' learning behaviors. However, it is still challenging to predict students' learning achievement in blended learning environment where online and offline learning are combined. In higher education, diverse cases of blended learning can be formed from simple use of LMS for administrative purposes to full usages of functions in LMS for online distance learning class. As a result, a generalized model to predict students' academic success does not fulfill diverse cases of blended learning. This study compares two blended learning classes with each prediction model. The first blended class which involves online discussion-based learning revealed a linear regression model, which explained 70% of the variance in total score through six variables including total log-in time, log-in frequencies, log-in regularities, visits on boards, visits on repositories, and the number of postings. However, the second case, a lecture-based class providing regular basis online lecture notes in Moodle show weaker results from the same linear regression model mainly due to non-linearity of variables. To investigate the non-linear relations between online activities and total score, RF (Random Forest) was utilized. The results indicate that there are different set of important variables for the two distinctive types of blended learning cases. Results suggest that the prediction models and data-mining technique should be based on the considerations of diverse pedagogical characteristics of blended learning classes.