• 제목/요약/키워드: Survival Probability

검색결과 242건 처리시간 0.032초

Association between Urinary Cadmium and All Cause, All Cancer and Prostate Cancer Specific Mortalities for Men: an Analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) Data

  • Cheung, Min Rex;Kang, Josephine;Ouyang, Daniel;Yeung, Vincent
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.483-488
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    • 2014
  • Aim: This study employed public use National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) data to investigate the association between urinary cadmium (UDPSI) and all cause, all cancer and prostate cancer mortalities in men. Patients and Methods: NHANES III household adult, laboratory and mortality data were merged. The sampling weight used was WTPFEX6, with SDPPSU6 applied for the probability sampling unit and SDPSTRA6 to designate the strata for the survey analysis. Results: For prostate cancer death, the significant univariates were UDPSI, age, weight, and drinking. Under multivariate logistic regression, the significant covariates were age and weight. For all cause mortality in men, the significant covariates were UDPSI, age, and poverty income ratio. For all cancer mortality in men, the significant covariates were UDPSI, age, black and Mexican race. Conclusions: UDPSI was a predictor of all cause and all cancer mortalities in men as well as prostate cancer mortality.

Probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of non-seismic RC frame buildings

  • Maniyar, M.M.;Khare, R.K.;Dhakal, R.P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.725-745
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, probabilistic seismic performance assessment of a typical non-seismic RC frame building representative of a large inventory of existing buildings in developing countries is conducted. Nonlinear time-history analyses of the sample building are performed with 20 large-magnitude medium distance ground motions scaled to different levels of intensity represented by peak ground acceleration and 5% damped elastic spectral acceleration at the first mode period of the building. The hysteretic model used in the analyses accommodates stiffness degradation, ductility-based strength decay, hysteretic energy-based strength decay and pinching due to gap opening and closing. The maximum inter story drift ratios obtained from the time-history analyses are plotted against the ground motion intensities. A method is defined for obtaining the yielding and collapse capacity of the analyzed structure using these curves. The fragility curves for yielding and collapse damage levels are developed by statistically interpreting the results of the time-history analyses. Hazard-survival curves are generated by changing the horizontal axis of the fragility curves from ground motion intensities to their annual probability of exceedance using the log-log linear ground motion hazard model. The results express at a glance the probabilities of yielding and collapse against various levels of ground motion intensities.

Discrete-time Survival Analysis of Risk Factors for Early Menarche in Korean Schoolgirls

  • Yong Jin Gil;Jong Hyun Park;Joohon Sung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제56권1호
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data. Methods: The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild's conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates. Results: Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche. Conclusions: Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.

베이지안 방법론을 적용한 154 kV 송전용 자기애자의 수명 평가 개발 (Lifetime Assessments on 154 kV Transmission Porcelain Insulators with a Bayesian Approach)

  • 최인혁;김태균;윤용범;이준신;김성욱
    • 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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    • 제30권9호
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    • pp.551-557
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    • 2017
  • It is extremely important to improve methodologies for the lifetime assessment of porcelain insulators. While there has been a considerable amount of work regarding the phenomena of lifetime distributions, most of the studies assume that aging distributions follow the Weibull distribution. However, the true underlying distribution is unknown, giving rise to unrealistic inferences, such as parameter estimations. In this article, we review several distributions that are commonly used in reliability and survival analysis, such as the exponential, Weibull, log-normal, and gamma distributions. Some properties, including the characteristics of failure rates of these distributions, are presented. We use a Bayesian approach for model selection and parameter estimation procedures. A well-known measure, called the Bayes factor, is used to find the most plausible model among several contending models. The posterior mean can be used as a parameter estimate for unknown parameters, once a model with the highest posterior probability is selected. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate our methodologies.

MIMO 시스템에서 최적 검출 기법을 위한 궤환 Semi-Definite Relaxation 검출기 (Feedback Semi-Definite Relaxation for near-Maximum Likelihood Detection in MIMO Systems)

  • 박수빈;이동진;변윤식
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제33권12C호
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    • pp.1082-1087
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    • 2008
  • MIMO 시스템에서 ML 검출 기법은 많은 다른 검출기들보다 우수한 성능을 보인다. 그러나 ML 검출기법은 NP-hard 문제로 인해 실제 시스템에서 사용하기 어려운 단점을 가지고 있다. 이것은 polynomial-time 안에 최적의 해 (optimal solution)를 찾을 수 없음을 의미한다. 본 논문에서는 ML problem을 적용한 SDR (Semi-Definite Relaxation)에 궤환기법을 통한 검출 알고리즘을 제안한다. 이는 SDR에 의해 구한 최적의 해를 spectral decomposition을 이용해 우세한 eigenvector를 찾아 송신 신호의 확률 분포를 구하고, 이를 수신 신호에 궤환 시킨다. 이는 또 다른 ML problem으로써 다시 SDR를 통해 최적의 해를 구하고 우세한 eigenvector에 해당하는 송신 신호 확률을 구한다. 이 확률은 ML problem에 해당하는 최적의 값으로 추정 송신 신호를 검출할 수 있다. 이러한 기법을 통해 최적 성능을 갖는 ML 검출 기법의 성능에 보다 더 가깝게 접근하였다.

무기 목표물 배정 문제의 최대 치사인원 선택 알고리즘 (Maximum Kill Selection Algorithm for Weapon Target Assignment (WTA) Problem)

  • 이상운
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2019
  • 무기 목표물 배정 문제는 지금까지 다항시간 알고리즘이 제안되지 않는 NP-hard 문제로 알려져 왔다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 본 문제에 대해 가능한 모든 경우수를 검증하는 Brute-Force 법이나 분기한정법으로 최적 해를 구하거나 유전자 알고리즘, 입자군 최적화 등의 인공지능 방법으로 근사 해를 구하는 방법들이 제안되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 단지 무기의 총 대수 k, 무기 종류 수 m, 목표물 개수 n에 대해 O(mn)을 k회 수행하는 O(kmn) 다항시간으로 최적 해를 구하는 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 제안된 알고리즘은 Brute-Force 법에 비해 수행횟수를 최소화 시킬 뿐 아니라 최적해도 구하는 장점을 갖고 있다.

What Exacerbates the Probability of Business Closure in the Private Sector During the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from World Bank Enterprise Survey Data

  • PHAM, Thi Bich Duyen;NGUYEN, Hoang Phong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권6호
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of the study is to look into the likelihood of private sector enterprises going bankrupt due to COVID-19 pandemic-related issues. The data for this study was taken from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey, which was intended to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business sector. This study uses the Ordinal Logit Method to analyze the model with dependent variables having ordinal values. The determinants reflect business performance, innovation, business relationships, and government support. According to the estimation results, a lower probability of business closures, illiquidity, and payment delays are found in businesses that maintain sales growth, operating hours, temporary workers, product portfolio, consumer demand, and input supply. Meanwhile, the increase in online business activities and receiving support from financial institutions and the government do not help businesses reduce the risk. Moreover, higher survival is found in manufacturing and developing countries. This implies the fragility of businesses in the retail and service sectors, especially for mega-enterprises in developed countries. In addition, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses in Europe and West Asia is less severe than in other regions. The results imply policies to support the private sector during the pandemic, such as increasing labor market flexibility or rapidly implementing supportive policies.

Reliability-based approach for fragility assessment of bridges under floods

  • Raj Kamal Arora;Swagata Banerjee
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제88권4호
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    • pp.311-322
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    • 2023
  • Riverine flood is one of the critical natural threats to river-crossing bridges. As floods are the most-occurred natural hazard worldwide, survival probability of bridges due to floods must be assessed in a speedy but precise manner. In this regard, the paper presents a reliability-based approach for a rapid assessment of failure probability of vulnerable bridge components under floods. This robust method is generic in nature and can be applied to both concrete and steel girder bridges. The developed methodology essentially utilizes limit state performance functions, expressed in terms of capacity and flood demand, for probable failure modes of various vulnerable components of bridges. Advanced First Order Reliability Method (AFORM), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) techniques are applied for the purpose of reliability assessment and developing flood fragility curves of bridges in which flow velocity and water height are taken as flood intensity measures. Upon validating the proposed method, it is applied to a case study bridge that experiences the flood scenario of a river in Gujarat, India. Research outcome portrays how effectively and efficiently the proposed reliability-based method can be applied for a quick assessment of flood vulnerability of bridges in any flood-prone region of interest.

저궤도 위성의 폐기기동 계획 연구 (A Study of the Disposal Maneuver Planning for LEO Satellite)

  • 성재동;김해동;최하연
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제44권4호
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    • pp.352-362
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 저궤도 위성의 한 예제로써 우주파편 완화 가이드라인을 준수하는 아리랑 2호 위성의 폐기기동에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 분석은 상용소프트웨어인 STK$^{(R)}$와 ESA의 우주파편 분석 툴 DRAMA를 사용하였으며, 가이드라인 규정 중 '25년 규정'을 만족하는 적정 폐기고도를 산출하였고, 아리랑 2호 위성의 비제어 재진입을 가정하여 내부부품의 생존률 및 지상피해면적을 분석하였다. 마지막으로 비제어 재진입 시 내부부품의 생존을 가정했을 때 다양한 초기궤도 오차를 수렴할 수 있는 적정 재진입 초기궤도를 분석하였다. 분석결과 아리랑 2호 위성은 '25년 규정' 만족을 위해 최소 43km에서 최대 105km의 고도하강이 필요하며, 비제어 재진입 시 질량이 큰 물체나 내열성이 강한 부품이 생존하여 $4.3141m^2$의 피해면적을 야기하였다. 마지막으로 재진입 초기궤도의 승교점경도를 129도로 설정했을 때 일정수준의 오차를 포함하더라도 가이드라인 기준을 만족하는 인명 피해확률을 보여주었다.

Clinical outcome of acute myocarditis in children according to treatment modalities

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Yoo, Gyeong-Hee;Kil, Hong-Ryang
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • 제53권7호
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    • pp.745-752
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: There is currently little evidence to support intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) therapy for pediatric myocarditis. The purpose of our retrospective study was to assess the effects of IVIG therapy in patients with presumed myocarditis on survival and recovery of ventricular function and to determine the factors associated with its poor outcome. Methods: We reviewed all consecutive cases of patients with myocarditis with left ventricular dysfunction verified by echocardiogram who had visited 3 university hospitals between January 2000 and September 2009. These patients were divided into 2 groups. Group 1 consisted of 23 patients (69.6%) who received IVIG alone or IVIG in combination with steroids, and group 2 consisted of 10 patients (30.3%) who received neither IVIG nor other immunosuppressive agents. Clinical manifestations, laboratory results, echocardiographic findings, and outcomes were compared between these 2 groups. Results: One year after the initial presentation, the difference in the probability of survival did not show statistical significance in IVIGtreated patients ($P$=0.607). Of the echocardiographic parameters on admission, a shortening fraction of less than 15% was associated with unremitting cardiac failure. Furthermore, anemic patients were more likely to have elevated N-terminal fragment levels of the B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in the progressed group ($P$=0.036). Conclusion: There was no difference between the IVIG-treated patients and the control patients in the degree of recovery of left ventricular function and survival. Prospective, randomized, clinical studies are needed to elucidate the effects of IVIG treatment during the acute stage of myocarditis on ultimate outcomes.