• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.139-147
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• 2013

This study analyzed agricultural water distribution systems for the utilization of water demand-oriented water supply systems. Three major TM/TC(telemeter/telecontrol) districts of agricultural water management were selected for analyzing the characteristics of the water distribution systems. In addition, the characteristics of the water supply systems for general water supply zones based on irrigation facilities were also investigated, along with the case of special water management during the drought season. As a result, high annual and monthly variations were observed for the water supply facilities, including the reservoirs and pumping stations. In particular, these variations were more obvious during the drought season, depending on the type of facility. The operations of the pumping stations and weirs were more sensitive to the stream levels than the reservoirs, and the smaller reservoirs were influenced more than the larger reservoirs. Therefore, a water-demand-oriented water supply system should consider the existing general practices of water management in the agricultural sector, and focus on achieving a laborsaving system rather than water conservation in the case of reservoirs. Equal water distribution from the start to the end point of irrigation channels could be an effective solution for managing pumping stations.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.23-37
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• 2019

To evaluate the available groundwater supply to the agricultural water demand in the future with the climate change scenarios for 40 sub-regions in Jeju Island, groundwater recharge and the available groundwater supply were estimated using water balance analysis method. Groundwater recharge was calculated by subtracting the actual evapotranspiration and direct runoff from the total amount of water resources and available groundwater supply was set at 43.6% from the ratio of the sustainable groundwater capacity to the groundwater recharge. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the available groundwater supply to the agricultural water demand is estimated to be insufficient in 2020 and 2025, especially in the western and eastern regions of the island. However, such a water shortage problem is alleviated in 2030. When applying the RCP 8.5 scenario, available groundwater supply can't meet the water demand over the entire decade.

• 대한예방한의학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.149-162
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• 2013

Objectives : This study was conducted to estimate the future demand and supply of physicians for korean medicine from 2016 year to 2026 year in order to make an adequate manpower policy in a way of keeping a balance between demand and supply. Methods : Baseline projection method and trend analysis(a polynomial log power equation model) were used in the estimation of future supply and demand respectively. We used data about the amount of oriental doctors from Ministry of Health and Welfare Statistics Yearbook and the treatment days from HIRA Statistics Yearbook. Results : It was projected that the total number of physician of Korean medicine will be 25,178 registered and 18,967 available in clinical setting. According to polynomial equation model which explained the trend of demand and had the highest score of $R^2$ among the equation models, 3,800~5,600 physician in Korean medicine will be oversupplied in 2016 year, 9,000~10,700 physicians in 2021 year and 15,700~17,000 persons in 2026 year depends on annual working days which is 265days, 255days or 239days. Log equation model also showed that overall excess supply of physician manpower in Korean medicine. Conclusions : Alternative manpower policies for Korean medicine doctors should be implemented in a way of both dwindling supplies and growing demand in Korean medical service in terms of Korean medical services utilization and improving physician's productivity.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.175-186
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• 2007

The employment permit system for foreigners, which stresses introduction of foreign work force in a legal manner rather than in the position of being trainees, is anticipated to efficiently improve introduction and the overall management system of foreign work force and related difficulties such as illegal alien problems, absurdity on sending laborers overseas. In this paper, a prospective model of supply and demand of work force has been developed basing on various categories of industries and patterns about nationally practical foreign employees to look over efficient supply and demand of work force suiting employment of foreigner among foreign work force policies. To propose the prospective model, we have derived industry- and pattern-related matrixes of foreign laborers basing on Inter-Industry Analysis Method put forth by Professor Leontiyef in 1930, and through the derived matrix assessed repercussions concerning overall domestic industries and foreigner types and decided yearly weight; the capacity of supply and demand of foreign laborers can be compared through proposed statistical estimation and government estimation by combining the determined weight with yearly incomes of foreign laborers. This paper has thoroughly considered the particularity of our employment permit system for foreigners and applied the Weibull distribution and incorporated the dependence of foreign laborers during the limited period of 3 years to the industry relation analysis, ultimately proposing an efficient supply and demand method about domestic foreign work force.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.29-37
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• 2017

This papers focuses on remanufacturing processes in a closed loop supply chain. The remanufacturing processes is considered as one of the effective strategies for enterprises' sustainability. For this reason, a lot of companies have attempted to apply remanufacturing related methods to their manufacturing processes. While many research studies focused on the return rate for remanufacturing parts as a control parameter, the relationship with demand certainties has been studied less comparatively. This paper considers a closed loop supply chain environment with remanufacturing processes, where highly fluctuating demands are embedded. While other research studies capture uncertainties using probability theories, highly fluctuating demands are modeled using a fuzzy logic based ambiguity based modeling framework. The previous studies on the remanufacturing have been limited in solving the actual supply chain management situation and issues by analyzing the various situations and variables constituting the supply chain model in a linear relationship. In order to overcome these limitations, this papers considers that the relationship between price and demand is nonlinear. In order to interpret the relationship between demand and price, a new price elasticity of demand is modeled using a fuzzy based nonlinear function and analyzed. This papers contributes to setup and to provide an effective price strategy reflecting highly demand uncertainties in the closed loop supply chain management with remanufacturing processes. Also, this papers present various procedures and analytical methods for constructing accurate parameter and membership functions that deal with extended uncertainty through fuzzy logic system based modeling rather than existing probability distribution based uncertainty modeling.

• 지질공학
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.469-481
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• 2019

가뭄으로 인한 제한급수나 단수로 인해 발생할 수 있는 물 복지 소외지역의 불편과 경제적 피해를 예방하기 위해서는 Sand Dam 건설과 같은 구조적 안정화 방안과 더불어 합리적 수요/공급량 관리 등을 통한 비구조적 관리 대책이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 소규모수도시설이 생활용수의 주 공급원인 춘천시 서상리 유역의 가뭄대응을 위해 공급량-수요량 모니터링 체계를 구축하였다. 공급량 모니터링을 위해 상류부 하천의 유량을 측정하였으며, 이를 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)의 매개변수 보정에 사용하여 일별 유출량을 산정하였다. 수요량 모니터링을 위하여 하천-저수조-가정으로 이어지는 용수 공급 네트워크를 작성하였으며, 저수조의 수위 변화를 측정하여 일별 사용량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 산정된 일별 공급량과 수요량 간의 관계분석을 통해 용수 부족 여부를 파악할 수 있었으며, 가뭄 대응을 위한 효과적인 지표로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 경영과학
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제29권2B호
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• pp.228-239
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• 2004

정보보호산업 성장의 가장 큰 애로요인 중 하나로 시장의 미성숙, 정보보호에 대한 인식 부족 등과 함께 전문 인력의 부족 등이 꼽히고 있는 가운데, 정보보호인력은 공급부족으로 인한 수급 불일치 현상을 보이고 있다. 이러한 현상은 산업에 대한 수요는 필연적으로 인력에 대한 수요를 발생시키게 되는데, 정보보호산업이 급속히 성장함에 따라 시기 적절한 정보보호인력의 양성 및 공급 대책을 수립함에 있어 어려움이 있었기 때문인 것으로 파악된다. 본 연구는 정보보호인력의 원활한 공급을 위해서는 정보보호인력의 수급체계에 대한 분석이 선행되어야 한다는데에 초점을 두고, 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론(System Dynamics)을 이용하여 정보보호인력의 수급체계 분석을 위한 모형을 작성하였다. 모형 구현의 궁극적인 목표는 정보보호인력의 수급체계가 갖고 있는 행태를 분석해 보고자하는 것이며, 이 때 주요정책변수를 조절하여 구현한 결과를 통해 정보보호인력의 원활한 공급을 위한 정책마련에 시사점을 주고자 한다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제29권5C호
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• pp.642-653
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• 2004

정보보호산업 성장의 가장 큰 애로요인 중 하나로 시장의 미성숙, 정보보호에 대한 인식 부족 등과 함께 전문 인력의 부족 등이 꼽히고 있는 가운데, 정보보호인력은 공급부족으로 인한 수급 불일치 현상을 보이고 있다. 이러한 현상은 산업에 대한 수요는 필연적으로 인력에 대한 수요를 발생시키게 되는데, 정보보호산업이 급속히 성장함에 따라 시기 적절한 정보보호인력의 양성 및 공급 대책을 수립함에 있어 어려움이 있었기 때문인 것으로 파악된다. 본 연구는 정보보호인력의 원활한 공급을 위해서는 정보보호인력의 수급체계에 대한 분석이 선행되어야 한다는 데에 초점을 두곤 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론(System Dynamics)을 이용하여 정보보호인력의 수급체계 분석을 위한 모형을 작성하였다. 모형 구현의 궁극적인 목표는 정보보호인력의 수급체계가 갖고 있는 형태를 분석해 보고자 하는 것이며, 이 때 주요정책변수를 조절하여 구현한 결과를 통해 정보보호인력의 원활한 공급을 위한 정책마련에 시사점을 주고자 한다.