• Strategy21
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• s.37
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• pp.32-64
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• 2015

This paper examines the types and trends of North Korea's military provocations and regional maritime threats against South Korea, and is focusing on the Republic of Korea's naval development and modernizations by the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) on future actions, what directions of the ROKN has taken thus far in response, as well as an examination of how the ROKN might respond to vulnerabilities identified throughout modern history. Importantly, this paper does not consider the domestic, bilateral, multilateral, regional and global political dimensions of the situation on the Korean Peninsula; nor does it consider the North Korea's transitional power politics, but including North Korea's nuclear program and submarine-launched ballistic missile developments, as a caveat, this paper is based on open sources in Korean and English language, and thus information concerning provocations is indicative only.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.363-369
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• 2015

This paper describes deployment of a sea based sensor platform for the detection of a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Recently, North Korea successfully conducted the underwater launching test of the SLBM, which will seriously threaten the global security. To defend these threats successfully, a sensor platform of the ballistic missile defense (BMD) should be deployed in the area of high detection probability of the missile. The maximum detection range characteristics of the typical radar sensor system, however, depend on the radar cross section (RCS) and flight trajectories of the target. In this point of view, this work analyzed the flight trajectories based on the tactics and calculated the RCS of the SLBM. In addition, sea based sensor platform position is proposed from the analysis of the detection time.

• Strategy21
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• s.40
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• pp.82-114
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• 2016

The purpose of this article is to analyze the progress of North Korea's SLBM threat, and to assess the technological capacity and threat level of its SLBMs. Currently, North Korea has approximately 1000 ballistic missiles, such as the SCUD, Musudan, and Nodong, in stock. This article pays close attention to the background and strategical implication behind North Korea's obsession with developing SLBMs despite possessing sufficient means to launch provocations with its current arsenal of ground based ballistic missiles and conventional weapons. Based on the abovementioned analysis, this article will recommend possible response directions for the ROK Armed Forces to North Korea's SLBM threat. It is highly difficult to detect SLBMs due to its stealthy nature, as it is launched underwater after covert infiltration. North Korea's SLBM is considered a game changer in that even one SLBM can significantly change the strategic balance of North East Asia. North Korea's SLBM test launch in August has made a 500km flight, landing 80km inside the JADIZ (Japan Air Defense Identification Zone), and as such, it is assessed that North Korea already possesses underwater ejection and cold launch capabilities. The most realistic response to North Korea's imminent SLBM threat is bolstering anti-submarine capabilities. ROK Armed Forces need to upgrade its underwater kill-chain by modernizing and introducing new airborne anti-submarine assets and nuclear-powered submarines, among many options. Moreover, we should integrate SM-3 missiles with the Aegis Combat system that possess strong detection capabilities and flexibility, thereby establishing a sea-based Ballistic Missle Defense (BMD) system centered around the Aegis Combat System, as sea-based ballistic missile threats are best countered out in the seas. Finally, the capabilities gap that could arise as a result of budgetary concerns and timing of fielding new assets should be filled by establishing firm ROK-US-Japan combined defense posture.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.39-49
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• 2018

An SLBM (submarine-launched ballistic missile) seriously threatens the national security due to its stealthiness that makes it difficult to detect in advance. We consider a destroyer deployment optimization problem for effectively detecting an SLBM. An optimization model is based on the two-person zero-sum game in which an adversary determines the firing and arriving places with an appropriate trajectory that provides a low detection probability, and we establish a destroyer deployment plan that guarantees the possibly highest detection probability. The proposed two-person zero-sum game model can be solved with the corresponding linear programming model, and we perform computational studies with a randomly generated area and scenario and show the optimal mixed strategies for both the players in the game.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.29-38
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• 2016

The threats around Korea Peninsula have been dramatically increased because North Korea is developing the Nuclear ballistic missile, Submarine launched ballistic missile(SLBM), and many kinds of weapons for sudden provocations. Therefore, ROK navy needs the cutting-edge warship combat systems in order to defeat the enemy threats effectively in the sea. The paper analyzes current warship combat system acquisition process and studies US navy and other advanced countries acquisition process and their contraction trends. After that, the paper proposes the optimal acquisition process of warship combat system for the ROK navy based on our current situation and other advanced countries acquisition trends. The paper will dedicate the next generation warship combat system acquisition process.

• International Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.9-13
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• 2016

This study is about technical analysis in launching SLBM of North Korea. We expect that North Korea develop ICBM and SLBM by improving the technique called R-27. Also it is expected that they attempt to achievement in covertness and ambush by completing technique of cold launching. Recently, SLBM of North Korea rised 40 ~ 50 m on surface after launching in an underwater when they showed the scene of firing SLBM. We expect that they actively use not general technique but super cavitation technique. Also, they might improve the launching technique by doing SLBM launching test. This type is about that whole rocket is separated two parts and ignited with high velocity and we might think that 1st rocket is used in solid propellant to maneuver in high velocity in an underwater. After then, they might use liquid propellant for the long-range ballistic missile.

• Strategy21
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• s.41
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• pp.232-260
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to open a debate about what kind of deterrent strategy the ROK military should pursue in the era of NK's weapons of mass destruction and missile threats. I argue that the ROK military needs a comprehensive deterrent strategy that reflects the international security situations and trends and that builds on clear understanding of the basic concepts and how deterrence operates. The paper starts with surveying the basic knowledge of deterrence from the perspectives of both theory and practice. Then, it provides explanations on why deterrence against NK can be particularly difficult given the security environment in and around the Korean peninsula. For example, South Korea and North Korea hardly share 'common knowledge' that serves as a basic element for the operation of deterrence. Deterrence against North Korea involves complex situations in that both deterrence and compellence strategies may be relevant particularly to North Korea's WMD and missile threats. It also involves both immediate and general deterrence. Based on the discussion, I suggest several ideas that may serve as guidelines for establishing a deterrent strategy against NK. First, our threats for deterrence should be the ones that can be realized, particularly in terms of the international norms. In other words, they must be considered appropriate among other nations in the international community. Second, there should be separate plans for the different kinds of threats: one is conventional, local provocations and the other is WMD/missile related provocations. Third, we should pursue much closer cooperative relations with the U.S. military to enhance the effectiveness of immediate deterrence in the Korean peninsula. Fourth, the ROK military should aim to accomplish 'smart deterrence' maximizing the benefits of technological superiority. Fifth, the ROK military readiness and structure should be able to deny emerging North Korean military threats such as the submarine-launched ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Lastly, in executing threats, we should consider that the current action influences credibility and reputation of the ROK, which in turn affect the decisions for future provocations. North Korea's WMD/missile threats may soon become critical strategic-level threats to South Korea. In retrospect, the first debate on building a missile defense system in South Korea dates back to the 1980s. Mostly the debate has centered on whether or not South Korea's system should be integrated into the U.S. missile defense system. In the meantime, North Korea has become a small nuclear power that can threaten the United States with the ballistic missiles capability. If North Korea completes the SLBM program and loads the missiles on a submarine with improved underwater operation capability, then, South Korea may have to face the reality of power politics demonstrated by Thucydides through the Athenians: "The strong do what they have the power to do, the weak accept what they have to accept."

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.56-69
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• 2022

Various advanced countries are accelerating the competition in the development of hypersonic weapons. North Korea is on the verge of building a new submarine equipped with a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). A series of new guided missiles tests have continued due to political competition between the U.S. and China. The Republic of Korea is planning to boost its military capabilities, which involves the development of nuclear-powered submarines, light aircraft carriers, and new guided missiles. The northeast Asian region continues to be tense amid military rivalry between the Republic of Korea, North Korea, the United States, China, Russia, and Japan. Accordingly, these countries' competition to develop weapons is also at the world's highest level. In this paper, we examine the functioning of a hypersonic weapons system conduct a technical analysis of its components. In addition, we analyze the direction of military development that the Korean military wants to pursue through the recently announced mid-term defense plan. We conclude by highlighting the technical limitations and implementation strategies to overcome the development of hypersonic weapons.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.9-16
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• 2015

This research focuses on analysis of the flight trajectory characteristics of SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) of North Korea. Recently, North Korea tested launching of SLBM which is threatening international security. Also it is known that North Korea had possessed the technologies about SLBM since they disassembled submarines out of commission of the former Soviet Union. If the development of the SLBM of North Korea is completed, it should be affected as asymmetric threat to South Korea. Therefore, for active respondence to these threat, it is essential to analyze the SLBM systematically. In this point of view, this work made a SLBM flight model and simulated. In addition, we controled flight trajectories according to adjusting loft angle and described their characteristics. The sea-based ballistic missile defense system is required for an effective response to the flight trajectory of the SLBM from mid-course to terminal phase.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.51-58
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• 2017

This research focuses on convenient radar received power prediction method for detection predictions of North Korea SLBM(Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). Recently, North Korea tested launching of SLBM which is threatening international security. Therefore, for active respondence to these threat, it is essential to analyze the radar detection prediction of SLBM. In this point of view, this work suggests a method for detection predictions for SLBM by simulating of RCS(Radar Cross Section) and wave propagation.