• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.347-373
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• 2021

지난 50여 년 동안 우리나라의 사망률 감소 패턴에 대한 탐색적 연구에 의하면 연령별 사망률이 모든 연령에서 감소했지만, 특정한 사망률이 개선되고 있는 패턴은 연령과 기간에 따라 다르다는 것을 알 수 있다. 여자가 남자보다 사망률 개선이 뚜렷하고 특히 시간이 지나면서 특정그룹에서의 사망률 개선이 두드러짐에 따라 전반적으로 사망 시간 추세에 구조적인 변화가 존재함을 확인하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 우리나라 여자 사망률 자료를 이용하여 미래 사망률 예측을 위해 코호트 효과를 고려한 다양한 확률적 사망률 모형을 살펴보았다. 또한 분석 결과를 바탕으로 2067년까지 연령별 사망률과 예측기대수명을 작성하고 통계청(KOSIS)에서 제공하는 장래 연령별 사망률과 기대수명과 비교하였다. 자료이용기간에 따라 최적의 모형이 상이하나 적합력과 예측력을 전반적으로 고려했을 때 우리나라 여자 사망률은 코호트 효과를 고려한 PLAT 모형이 적절하다 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국융합학회논문지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.247-258
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• 2021

최근 조직들은 조직원에게 엄격한 정보보안 수준을 요구하고 있다. 엄격한 정보보안 정책 및 기술은 정보보안 관련 스트레스를 유발할 수 있다. 연구 목적은 지식공유행동 및 개인조직 적합성을 감소시키는 정보보안 기술 및 업무스트레스의 부정적 영향을 제시하는 것이다. 연구 대상은 정보보안 정책을 보유한 조직에서 근무하는 조직원이며, 연구가설은 309개의 표본을 활용하여 구조방정식모델링으로 검증한다. 연구 결과, 개인조직적합성이 지식공유행동에 긍정적 영향을 주었으나, 업무스트레스가 부정적 영향을 주었다. 또한, 기술스트레스가 개인조직 적합성에 부정적 영향을 미쳤다. 추가적으로, 업무모호성이 개인조직 적합성과 지식공유행동사이에 조절효과를 가졌다. 연구 시사점은 조직원의 정보보안 기술 및 업무 스트레스의 부정적 영향을 확인하였으며, 내부자의 부정적 행동 최소화를 위한 방향을 제시한다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.59-69
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• 2021

Historical records of earthquakes are generally used as a basis to extrapolate the instrumental earthquake catalog in time and space during the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the historical catalogs' input parameters determined through historical descriptions rather than any quantitative measurements are accompanied by considerable uncertainty in PSHA. Therefore, quantitative assessment to verify the historical earthquake parameters is essential for refining the reliability of PSHA. This study presents an approach and its application to constrain reliable ranges of the magnitude and corresponding epicenter of historical earthquakes. First, ranges rather than specific values of ground motion intensities are estimated at multiple locations with distances between each other for selected historical earthquakes by reviewing observed co-seismic natural phenomena, structural damage levels, or felt areas described in their historical records. Based on specific objective criteria, this study selects only one earthquake (July 24, 1643), which is potentially one of the largest historical earthquakes. Then, ground motion simulations are performed for sufficiently broadly distributed epicenters, with a regular grid to prevent one from relying on strong assumptions. Calculated peak ground accelerations and velocities in areas with the historical descriptions on corresponding earthquakes are converted to intensities with an empirical ground motion-intensity conversion equation to compare them with historical descriptions. For the ground motion simulation, ground motion prediction equations and a frequency-wavenumber method are used to consider the effects of possible source mechanisms and stress drop. From these quantitative calculations, reliable ranges of epicenters and magnitudes and the trade-off between them are inferred for the earthquake that can conservatively match the upper and lower boundaries of intensity values from historical descriptions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제83권3호
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• pp.293-304
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• 2022

In this work, a novel reliability approach for combined high and low cycle fatigue (CCF) estimation is developed by combining active learning strategy with least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) (named as ALS-SVM) surrogate model to address the multi-resources uncertainties, including working loads, material properties and model itself. Initially, a new active learner function combining LS-SVM approach with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is presented to improve computational efficiency with fewer calls to the performance function. To consider the uncertainty of surrogate model at candidate sample points, the learning function employs k-fold cross validation method and introduces the predicted variance to sequentially select sampling. Following that, low cycle fatigue (LCF) loads and high cycle fatigue (HCF) loads are firstly estimated based on the training samples extracted from finite element (FE) simulations, and their simulated responses together with the sample points of model parameters in Coffin-Manson formula are selected as the MC samples to establish ALS-SVM model. In this analysis, the MC samples are substituted to predict the CCF reliability of turbine blades by using the built ALS-SVM model. Through the comparison of the two approaches, it is indicated that the reliability model by linear cumulative damage rule provides a non-conservative result compared with that by the proposed one. In addition, the results demonstrate that ALS-SVM is an effective analysis method holding high computational efficiency with small training samples to gain accurate fatigue reliability.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제78권3호
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• pp.351-368
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• 2021

This paper, by applying a reliability-based framework, develops seismic vulnerability macrozonation maps for Tehran, the capital and one of the most earthquake-vulnerable city of Iran. Seismic performance assessment of 3-, 4- and 5-story steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), designed according to ASCE/SEI 41-17 and Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (2800 Standard), is investigated in terms of overall maximum inter-story drift ratio (MIDR) and unit repair cost ratio which is hereafter known as "damage ratio". To this end, Tehran city is first meshed into a network of 66 points to numerically locate low- to mid-rise SMRFs. Active faults around Tehran are next modeled explicitly. Two different combination of faults, based on available seismological data, are then developed to explore the impact of choosing a proper seismic scenario. In addition, soil effect is exclusively addressed. After building analytical models, reliability methods in combination with structure-specific probabilistic models are applied to predict demand and damage ratio of structures in a cost-effective paradigm. Due to capability of proposed methodology incorporating both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties explicitly, this framework which is centered on the regional demand and damage ratio estimation via structure-specific characteristics can efficiently pave the way for decision makers to find the most vulnerable area in a regional scale. This technical basis can also be adapted to any other structures which the demand and/or damage ratio prediction models are developed.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.309-315
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• 2021

The purpose of the article is to analyze the functioning of economic systems in the context of the development of their potential in a circular economy. It is determined that the functioning of economic systems to ensure their sustainability should meet modern challenges and provide for the formation of competitive institutional architecture, the introduction of structural and regulatory innovations, the transition to an innovative model of development. The specific principles of functioning of economic systems include openness, nonlinearity, multivectority, dynamism, emergence, uncertainty about the development of economic processes. It is substantiated that the linear nature of development and equilibrium are not dominant in the functioning of economic systems, and increasing the level of economic efficiency should go hand in hand with minimizing the activities of enterprises, which necessitates the use of circular economy. The main prerequisites for the transition to a circular economy are analyzed. It is determined that the basic concept of the circular economy involves the development of a system of production and consumption, which is based on processing, reuse, repair, product sharing, change of consumption patterns and new business models and systems. The main elements of the circular economy include: a closed cycle, the use of renewable energy sources, systems thinking. The correlation of the principles of sustainable development and the peculiarities of the application of the circular economy is analyzed. It is determined that the circular economy contrasts with the traditional linear economic model, which is based on the model of "take-do-consume-throw away". The advantages and disadvantages due to the use of the principles of circular economy are given. Based on the study, steps are identified to accelerate the transition from a linear economy to a circular economy.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제22권11호
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• pp.255-259
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• 2022

The new social reality emerging amid the global rise of communication links and integration processes acutely emphasizes the problems of communication in large and small social systems. The method of their communication becomes one of the keys to ensuring global security. It has become the mission of humanitarian education to prepare the younger generations for life in a changing world with no image of the future and increasing uncertainty. In psychological and pedagogical research, there is a growing scientific interest in the problems of interaction of the individual with the social environment. The mental trace of a person's practice in society shapes the experience of social interaction, which constitutes simultaneously the source, tool, and condition for the emergence and development of personality. The study outlines the methodological foundations for the study of individual experiences of social interaction. A hypothesis about the productivity of the functional matrix method is tested. Materials for the training of specialists in the humanities include interdisciplinary approaches to the study and transformation of the experience of social interaction and systematic methodology for the study of complex objects. Fundamental to the study is the systematic-dialectical method, and the matrix method is employed as the instrumental-technological method. The paper presents the results of a multidisciplinary overview of scientific literature concerning the essential characteristics and functions of social interaction and the respective experience. The overview points to the fragmented nature of scientific understanding of the elements of experience outside its integrity and systemic properties. Based on the formula "personality interacts with the social environment", the study presents an algorithm for the application of a systematic methodology for the study of complex objects, which made it possible to identify the system parameters of experience at three levels of cognition and develop the reference structural and functional matrices for the didactic system of its pedagogical enrichment.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.149-158
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• 2024

Piloti-type structures with vertical irregularity are vulnerable to earthquakes due to the soft structure of the first story. Structural characteristics of buildings can significantly affect the seismic loss function, calculated based on seismic fragility, and therefore need to be considered. This study investigated the effects of the number of stories and core locations on the seismic loss function of piloti-type buildings in Korea. Twelve analytical models were developed considering two variations: three stories (4-story, 5-story, and 6-story) and four core locations (center core, x-eccentric core, y-eccentric core, and xy-eccentric core). The interstory drift ratio and peak floor acceleration were assessed through incremental dynamic analysis using 44 earthquake records, and seismic fragility was derived. Seismic loss functions were calculated and compared using the derived seismic fragility and repair cost ratio of each component. The results indicate that the seismic loss function increases with more stories and when the core is eccentrically located in the piloti-type structure model. Therefore, the uncertainty due to the number of stories and core location should be considered when deriving the seismic loss function of piloti-type structures.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.164-178
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• 2022

주요 곡물 생산 지역에 대한 작황 계절 예측을 위해 작물모형과 기상 예보자료들이 활용되고 있다. 이 때, 작물모형의 입력자료로 활용되는 기상자료의 불확실성이 작황 예측 결과에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상 예보자료에 따른 작물모형 결과에 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 하였다. 주요 곡물 생산 지역인 미국의 콘벨트 지역을 대상으로 중규모 수치예보 모형인 Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)로 10km 해상도의 계절 예측 자료를 생산하였다. 보다 상세한 기상 예보자료 생산을 가정하기 위해 통계적 기법인 Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) 기법을 활용하여 WRF 자료를 기반으로 5km 해상도로 예측 자료를 생산하였다. WRF와 PRISM 계절 예측 자료로 CROPGRO-SOYBEAN 모형을 구동하여 두 기상 예보자료에 따른 작물 생육 모의 결과를 얻었다. 2011~2018 기간에 대하여 4월 10일부터 8일 간격으로 11개의 파종일을 설정하였으며, 3개의 콩 성숙군에 대한 품종 모수가 사용되었다. 기상 자료의 불확실성을 파악하기 위해 작물 재배기간 동안의 누적 생육도일과 누적 일사량을 비교하였다. 예측된 수량 및 성숙일 등의 주요 변수들을 비교하였다. 두 기상 자료로부터 얻어진 변수들 사이의 일치도 통계량 계산을 위해 root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) 및 structural similarity(SSIM) index가 사용되었다. WRF와 PRISM에서 계산된 누적 생육도일 사이의 일치도가 낮았던 연도에 콩 성숙일 모의 값에 대한 오차가 크게 나타났다. 콩 모의 수량 또한 성숙일 및 온도의 오차가 크게 나타났던 연도에 상대적으로 낮은 일치도를 가졌다. 또한 파종일이 수량 및 성숙일 예측의 일치도에 상당한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 WRF와 PRISM 자료 사이에 온도 자료의 불확실성이 작황 예측의 불확실성에 영향을 주었으며, 재배 시기에 따라 그 불확도의 크기가 상이할 수 있음을 암시하였다. 따라서 신뢰도 높은 작황 예측 자료 생산을 위해 작물별 재배기간을 고려한 불확실성 평가 등의 추가적인 연구가 진행되어야 할 것으로 보인다.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.202-208
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• 2005

현재 국내에서는 연약지반의 성토를 실시할 경우 성토사면의 안정을 관리하는데 있어 외국의 기준에 의존하는 경향이 있다. 현장에서 일반적으로 사용되고 있는 방법으로 곡선안정관리법, 변위속도안정관리기법, 직선안정관리기법, 성토하중관리법 등이 사용되고 있다. 본 연구는 수치해석을 통해 사면안정과 성토 안전관리법의 적용성을 검토하였다. 연구결과 곡선안정관리법은 다소 과대한 것으로 평가되었으며 직선안정관리법은 갑작스런 파괴의 위험이 있는 것으로 계측관리에 세심한 주의가 필요할 것으로 평가되었다. 그러나 변위속도 안정관리법은 과소평가되는 경향이 있으나 이는 현장의 불확실성을 고려할 때 현장적용에 적합한 것으로 평가되었다. 성토하중관리법은 파괴기준 값이 ${\Delta}_q/{\Delta}{\delta}$의 값보다 클 경우 안정하다고 평가하는 방법으로 실무에 적용할 경우에는 파괴기준 값의 산정에 어려움이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 성토하중에 대한 ${\Delta}_q/{\Delta}{\delta}$값이 계속적인 증가 경향을 보일 경우 안정한 것으로 평가되었다.