• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical reasoning

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Design of On-line Insurance Sales Support Systems Using Case-Based Reasoning (사례기반추론을 이용한 온라인보험 판매지원시스템의 설계)

  • Kim, Jin-Wan;Ok, Seok-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to design the On-line Insurance Sales Support System using Case-Based Reasoning(CBR). In on-line insurance subscription process, this system provides the personalized insurance payment cases and insurance statistics for customers to entice an insurance subscription. By measuring, specifically, similarities between the user profile and insurance payment cases, it suggests the best insurance payment case which has the highest similarity and reflects the latest in the insurance payment cases. In addition, it serves the insurance statistical information that matches with the attributes of the finally-selected case. These functions can be useful in on-line insurance sales.

Causal reasoning studies with a focus on the Power Probabilistic Contrast Theory (힘 확률 대비 이론에 기반을 둔 인과 추론 연구)

  • Park, Jooyong
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.541-572
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    • 2016
  • Causal reasoning is actively studied not only by psychologists but, in recent years, also by cognitive scientists taking the Bayesian approach. This paper seeks to provide an overview of the recent trends in causal reasoning research with a focus on the power probabilistic contrast theory of causality, a major psychological theory on causal inference. The power probabilistic contrast theory (PPCT) assumes that a cause is a power that initiates or inhibits the result. This power is purported be understood through statistical correlation under certain conditions. The paper examines the supporting empirical evidence in the development of PPCT. Also, introduced are the theoretical dispute between the PPCT and the model based on Bayesian approach, and the current developments and implications of research on causal invariance hypothesis, which states that cause operates identically regardless of the context. Recent studies have produced experimental results that cannot be readily explained by existing empirical approach. Therefore, these results call for serious examination of the power theory of causality by researchers in neighboring fields such as philosophy, statistics, and artificial intelligence.

An Ensemble Method for Latent Interest Reasoning of Mobile Users (모바일 사용자의 잠재 관심 추론을 위한 앙상블 기법)

  • Choi, Yerim;Park, Jonghun;Shin, Dong Wan
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.706-712
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    • 2015
  • These days, much information is provided as a list of summaries through mobile services. In this regard, users consume information in which they are interested by observing the list and not by expressing their interest explicitly or implicitly through rating content or clicking links. Therefore, to appropriately model a user's interest, it is necessary to detect latent interest content. In this study, we propose a method for reasoning latent interest of a user by analyzing mobile content consumption logs of the user. Specifically, since erroneous reasoning will drastically degrade service quality, a unanimity ensemble method is adopted to maximize precision. In this method, an item is determined as the subject of latent interest only when multiple classifiers considering various aspects of the log unanimously agree. Accurate reasoning of latent interest will contribute to enhancing the quality of personalized services such as interest-based recommendation systems.

Statistical Studies on the Formularies of Oriental Medicine(II) -Statistical Analyses of Ginseng Prescription- (한방 처방의 통계적 연구( II ) -인삼배합 한방처방의 통계적 연구-)

  • Hong, Moon-Wha
    • Korean Journal of Pharmacognosy
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 1972
  • In spite of the fact that the system of oriental medicine still remains in the realm of 'unproven-method of treatment', no one can deny that the oriental medicine is a rich source of idea and motivation for the discovery of new drug from natural sources. However, non-scientific, mystic hypothetical system of oriental medicine refuses to be revealed scientifically. For the purpose of drawing useful parameters for inductive reasoning of the system, a new approach which comprises statistical analyses of prescription was attempted in this study. One hundred and thirty two ginseng-compounds prescription in 'Bang-Yak-Hap-Pyon', one of the most popular formularies of oriental medicine in Korea, were analysed by multivariate analysis technique. The results revealed ginseng from many points of view, e.g., therapeutic indications, dose, and compatibility, etc. Among these, the most striking coincidence with scientific achievements of modern pharmacology, is the fact that the oriental medicine has characterized ginseng already from remote ancient times as neither a specific curative nor an aphrodisiac, but a non-specific adaptogenic drug for general infirmity.

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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Children's Statistical Thinking Based on Survey Activities (설문 조사 활동에서 나타난 아동의 통계적 사고에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Kyeong;Kim, Hye-Won
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.207-227
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    • 2011
  • This study developed a statistical thinking level with constructs framework from based on Jones, Thornton, Langrall, & Mooney (2000) to analyze the 6th graders' thinking level shown on their survey activities. It was modified by 5 constructs framework such as collecting, describing, organizing, representing, and analyzing and interpreting data with four thinking levels, which represent a continuum from idiosyncratic to analytic reasoning. As a result, among four levels such as idiosyncratic level (level 1), transitional level (level 2), quantitative level (level 3), and analytical level (level 4), levels of two through four are shown on statistical thinking levels in this study.

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Smart Agents and Multimedia Systems

  • Kim, Steven H.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.215-269
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    • 1997
  • Outline $\textbullet$ Introduction $\textbullet$ Multimedia - Types of Data - Motivation - Key issue - Hardware Products - Application Areas $\textbullet$ Agents - Rationale for Agents - Sedentary vs. Mobile - Functional Categories - Application Areas $\textbullet$ Data Mining - 2-D Framework for Data Mining Tools - Classification of Tool - Application Areas - Learning Methodologies * Case Based Reasoning * Neural Networks * Statistical Learning: Orthogonal Arrays * Multi-strategy Learning $\textbullet$ Case Study - Finbot $\textbullet$ Conclusion

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A Discrete Time Approximation Method using Bayesian Inference of Parameters of Weibull Distribution and Acceleration Parameters with Time-Varying Stresses (시변환 스트레스 조건에서의 와이블 분포의 모수 및 가속 모수에 대한 베이시안 추정을 사용하는 이산 시간 접근 방법)

  • Chung, In-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1331-1336
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    • 2008
  • This paper suggests a method using Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution and acceleration parameters under the condition that the stresses are time-dependent functions. A Bayesian model based on the discrete time approximation is formulated to infer the parameters of interest from the failure data of the virtual tests and a statistical analysis is considered to decide the most probable mean values of the parameters for reasoning of the failure data.

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Buy-Sell Strategy with Mean Trend and Volatility Indexes of Normalized Stock Price (정규화된 주식가격의 평균추세-변동성 지표를 이용한 매매전략 -KOSPI200 을 중심으로-)

  • Yoo, Seong-Mo;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.277-283
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    • 2005
  • In general, stock prices do not follow normal distributions and mean trend indexes, volatility indexes, and volume indicators relating to these non-normal stock price are widely used as buy-sell strategies. These general buy-sell strategies are rather intuitive than statistical reasoning. The non-normality problem can be solved by normalizing process and statistical buy-sell strategy can be obtained by using mean trend and volatility indexes together with normalized stock prices. In this paper, buy-sell strategy based on mean trend and volatility index with normalized stock prices are proposed and applied to KOSPI200 data to see the feasibility of the proposed buy-sell strategy.

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An Investigation of Mathematically High Achieving Students' Understanding of Statistical Concepts (수학 우수아의 통계적 개념 이해도 조사)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Hwa;Yoo, Yun-Joo;Hong, Jin-Kon;Park, Min-Sun;Park, Mi-Mi
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.547-561
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    • 2010
  • Even though statistics is considered as one of the areas of mathematical science in the school curriculum, it has been well documented that statistics has distinct features compared to mathematics. However, there is little empirical educational research showing distinct features of statistics, especially research into the understanding of statistical concepts which are different from other areas in school mathematics. In addition, there is little discussion of a relationship between the ability of mathematical thinking and the ability of understanding statistical concepts. This study extracted some important concepts which consist of the fundamental statistical reasoning and investigated how mathematically high achieving students understood these concepts. As a result, there were both kinds of concepts that mathematically high achieving students developed well or not. There is a weak correlation between mathematical ability and the level of understanding statistical concepts.

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