• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Decision Making

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A Study on the Calculation and Provision of Accruals-Quality by Big Data Real-Time Predictive Analysis Program

  • Shin, YeounOuk
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2019
  • Accruals-Quality(AQ) is an important proxy for evaluating the quality of accounting information disclosures. High-quality accounting information will provide high predictability and precision in the disclosure of earnings and will increase the response to stock prices. And high Accruals-Quality, such as mitigating heterogeneity in accounting information interpretation, provides information usefulness in capital markets. The purpose of this study is to suggest how AQ, which represents the quality of accounting information disclosure, is transformed into digitized data in real-time in combination with IT information technology and provided to financial analyst's information environment in real-time. And AQ is a framework for predictive analysis through big data log analysis system. This real-time information from AQ will help financial analysts to increase their activity and reduce information asymmetry. In addition, AQ, which is provided in real time through IT information technology, can be used as an important basis for decision-making by users of capital market information, and is expected to contribute in providing companies with incentives to voluntarily improve the quality of accounting information disclosure.

Influence Factors on the IT Governance from ITA/EA Functions (ITA/EA 영향분석 요인)

  • Ahn, Yeon-S.;Kim, Hee-Wan
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we brought some influence factors of what the function contributing by ITA/EA in organization is. Also, we verified statistically the impact relation in mutual on the base of questionnaire, extracting in investigation the factors of why the IT Governance of organization is building up, and by what the effect of building up is estimated. In result of statistical analysis based on the 223 case of organizations, it appeared that the infrastructure management, decision making enhancement, and IT process and service functions are the contributing factors on the IT Governance.

An Analysis of the 8th Grade Probability Curriculum in Accordance with the Distribution Concepts (분포 개념의 연계성 목표 관점에 따른 중학교 확률 단원 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Huh, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.163-183
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    • 2010
  • It has long been of controversy what the meanings of probability is. And a century has past after the mathematical probability has been at the center of the school curriculum of it. Recently statistical meaning of probability becomes important for various reasons. However the simple modification of its definition is not enough. The computational reasoning of the probability and its practical application needs didactical changes and new instructional transformations along with the modification of it. Most of the current text books introduce probability as a limit of the relative frequencies, a statistical probability. But when the probability computation of the union of two events, or of the simultaneous events is faced on, they use mathematical probability for explanation and practices. Accordingly there is a gap for students in understanding those. Probability is an intuitive concept as far as it belongs to the domain of the experiential frequency. And frequency distribution must be the instructional bases for the (statistical) probability novices. This is what we mean by the probability in accordance with the distribution concepts. First of all, in order to explain the probability of the complementary event we should explain the empirical relative frequency of it first. These are the case for the union of two events and for the simultaneous events. Moreover we need to provide a logic of probabilistic guesses, inferences and decision, which we introduce with the name “the likelihood principle”, the most famous statistical principle. We emphasized this be done through the problems of practical decision making.

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Credit Score Modelling in A Two-Phase Mathematical Programming (두 단계 수리계획 접근법에 의한 신용평점 모델)

  • Sung Chang Sup;Lee Sung Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.1044-1051
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    • 2002
  • This paper proposes a two-phase mathematical programming approach by considering classification gap to solve the proposed credit scoring problem so as to complement any theoretical shortcomings. Specifically, by using the linear programming (LP) approach, phase 1 is to make the associated decisions such as issuing grant of credit or denial of credit to applicants. or to seek any additional information before making the final decision. Phase 2 is to find a cut-off value, which minimizes any misclassification penalty (cost) to be incurred due to granting credit to 'bad' loan applicant or denying credit to 'good' loan applicant by using the mixed-integer programming (MIP) approach. This approach is expected to and appropriate classification scores and a cut-off value with respect to deviation and misclassification cost, respectively. Statistical discriminant analysis methods have been commonly considered to deal with classification problems for credit scoring. In recent years, much theoretical research has focused on the application of mathematical programming techniques to the discriminant problems. It has been reported that mathematical programming techniques could outperform statistical discriminant techniques in some applications, while mathematical programming techniques may suffer from some theoretical shortcomings. The performance of the proposed two-phase approach is evaluated in this paper with line data and loan applicants data, by comparing with three other approaches including Fisher's linear discriminant function, logistic regression and some other existing mathematical programming approaches, which are considered as the performance benchmarks. The evaluation results show that the proposed two-phase mathematical programming approach outperforms the aforementioned statistical approaches. In some cases, two-phase mathematical programming approach marginally outperforms both the statistical approaches and the other existing mathematical programming approaches.

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Effective Test and Evaluation Approaches for Reliable Defense Systems Development examined through Domestic Defense Cases (국내 사례로 살펴보는 국방체계 개발의 신뢰성을 높이기 위한 시험평가 방안)

  • Seo, Kyung-Min;Lee, Chan Young;Bang, Kyoung Woon;Lee, Dong Chul;Choi, Woo Young;Kim, Tag Gon
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents practical issues for test and evaluation(T&E) methods to develop defense systems. Our argument is motivated by several domestic defense cases and the cases lead us to discuss two main factors for reliable defense systems development: 1) statistical approaches and 2) technical schemes. Specifically, statistical approaches enable to provide credible interpretations about T&E results in the decision-making process. With practical T&E results of the “Red Shark” torpedo, we performed statistical hypothesis tests and suggest a minimum sample size to accept the hypothesis. Next, technical schemes have more direct effects on improving reliability of developed defense systems and we shortly introduce tools development for systems verification that is required to integrate several sub-systems, e.g., combat, sensor, weapon, and communication systems, within a defense system. We additionally summary some domain cases using modeling and simulation techniques for successful T&E. In closing, we expect that the paper shows empirical investigation and lessons learned with these two practical issues, which provides a guide those who desire to make decisions about reliable defense systems development.

Identification and Analysis of Author's Institution in Korean Journal Papers for the Decision Support in Disaster Situations

  • Kim, Byungkyu;You, Beom-Jong;Shim, Hyoung-Seop
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.26 no.12
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, in order to support rapid and effective decision-making and response in disaster situations, we identified the author's organization of academic research papers and conducted a collaborative relationship analysis study based on this. For this purpose, 2,308 papers in 69 Korean academic journals classified by disaster and safety type were selected for analysis and experimental data were constructed based on the Korea Science Citation Database (KSCD) and institutional identification data provided by KISTI. Collaborative relationship analysis was conducted for each of the four units (Institution, Institution type, Institution region and University department type). First, statistical status such as frequency of appearance was compared, and basic properties and main centrality index of each co-occurrence network were calculated and analyzed using Social Network Analysis Method. In addition, a visualization map was created and presented for each network so that the collaborative relationship could be viewed and understood as a whole. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the search activities of institutions and cooperative groups that support effective disaster response and to lay the foundation for the information service system.

Determinants of Choice of Surgery in Asian Patients with Early Breast Cancer in A Middle Income Country

  • Teh, Yew-Ching;Shaari, Nor Elina Noor;Taib, Nur Aishah;Ng, Char-Hong;See, Mee-Hoong;Tan, Gie-Hooi;Jamaris, Suniza;Yip, Cheng-Har
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.3163-3167
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    • 2014
  • Background: Breast-conserving surgery (BCS) plus radiotherapy is equivalent to modified radical mastectomy (MRM) in terms of outcome. However there is wide variation in mastectomy rates dependent both on tumour and patient characteristics. Objective: This study aimed to assess the determinants of surgery choice in Asian patients with early breast cancer in a middle-income country. Materials and Methods: 184 patients with early breast cancer treated between Jan 2008 and Dec 2010 were recruited to complete a questionnaire. Chi-square test was used to analyze the association between surgery choice and demographic and tumour factors, surgeon recommendation, family member and partner opinions, fear of recurrence, avoidance of second surgery, fear of disfigurement, interference with sex life, fear of radiation and loss of femininity. Results: 85 (46%) had BCS while 99 (54%) had mastectomy. Age >60, Chinese ethnicity, lower education level, and larger tumour size were significantly associated with mastectomy. Surgeon recommendation was important in surgery choice. Although both groups did not place much importance on interference with sex life, 14.1% of the BCS group felt it was very important compared to 5.1% in the mastectomy group and this was statistically significant. There was no statistical difference between the two groups in terms of the other factors. When analyzed by ethnicity, significantly more Malay and Indian women considered partner and family member opinions very important and were more concerned about loss of femininity compared to Chinese women. There were no statistical differences between the three ethnic groups in terms of the other factors. Conclusions: When counseling on surgical options, the surgeon has to take into account the ethnicity, social background and education level, age and reliance on partner and family members. Decision-making is usually a collective effort rather than just between the patient and surgeon, and involving the whole family into the process early is important.

Assessing Infinite Failure Software Reliability Model Using SPC (Statistical Process Control) (통계적 공정관리(SPC)를 이용한 무한고장 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 접근방법 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Shin, Hyun Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2012
  • There are many software reliability models that are based on the times of occurrences of errors in the debugging of software. It is shown that it is possible to do asymptotic likelihood inference for software reliability models based on infinite failure model and non-homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP). For someone making a decision about when to market software, the conditional failure rate is an important variables. The finite failure model are used in a wide variety of practical situations. Their use in characterization problems, detection of outliers, linear estimation, study of system reliability, life-testing, survival analysis, data compression and many other fields can be seen from the many study. Statistical Process Control (SPC) can monitor the forecasting of software failure and there by contribute significantly to the improvement of software reliability. Control charts are widely used for software process control in the software industry. In this paper, we proposed a control mechanism based on NHPP using mean value function of log Poission, log-linear and Parto distribution.

The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on polynomial hazard function (다항 위험함수에 근거한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2015
  • There are many software reliability models that are based on the times of occurrences of errors in the debugging of software. It is shown that it is possible to do parameter inference for software reliability models based on finite failure model and non-homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP). For someone making a decision to market software, the conditional failure rate is an important variables. In this case, finite failure model are used in a wide variety of practical situations. Their use in characterization problems, detection of outlier, linear estimation, study of system reliability, life-testing, survival analysis, data compression and many other fields can be seen from the many study. Statistical process control (SPC) can monitor the forecasting of software failure and thereby contribute significantly to the improvement of software reliability. Control charts are widely used for software process control in the software industry. In this paper, proposed a control mechanism based on NHPP using mean value function of polynomial hazard function.

Analysis on Relation between Rehabilitation Training Movement and Muscle Activation using Weighted Association Rule Discovery (가중연관규칙 탐사를 이용한 재활훈련운동과 근육 활성의 연관성 분석)

  • Lee, Ah-Reum;Piao, Youn-Jun;Kwon, Tae-Kyu;Kim, Jung-Ja
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2009
  • The precise analysis of exercise data for designing an effective rehabilitation system is very important as a feedback for planing the next exercising step. Many subjective and reliable research outcomes that were obtained by analysis and evaluation for the human motor ability by various methods of biomechanical experiments have been introduced. Most of them include quantitative analysis based on basic statistical methods, which are not practical enough for application to real clinical problems. In this situation, data mining technology can be a promising approach for clinical decision support system by discovering meaningful hidden rules and patterns from large volume of data obtained from the problem domain. In this research, in order to find relational rules between posture training type and muscle activation pattern, we investigated an application of the WAR(Weishted Association Rule) to the biomechanical data obtained mainly for evaluation of postural control ability. The discovered rules can be used as a quantitative prior knowledge for expert's decision making for rehabilitation plan. The discovered rules can be used as a more qualitative and useful priori knowledge for the rehabilitation and clinical expert's decision-making, and as a index for planning an optimal rehabilitation exercise model for a patient.