• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stationary AR(1)

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The Lead-Lag Relationship between BSI and Industrial Production Index in Construction Industry (건설업 BSI와 산업생산지수 간의 선후행성)

  • Yoo, Han-Soo
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this paper is to scrutinize the relation between Business Survey Index and Industrial Production Index in construction industry, stated in another way, the relation between CEO's expectations of future business status and real business activity in construction industry. Previous papers on this research area have been examined the relation between released BSI and released IPI. However, this paper focuses 'the relation between released BSI and the long-run component of IPI' and 'the relation between released BSI and the short-run component of IPI'. The first step is to decompose released IPI by unobserved component model. The long-run component of IPI is set up as a random walk process. And short-run component is set up as a stationary AR(1) process. The findings are as follows. First, released BSI Granger causes unidirectionally released IPI. Second, there exists one-way Granger causality from released BSI to long-run component of IPI. Third, Granger causality does not exist between released BSI and 'short-run component of IPI'. BSI increases IPI in the second or third month. These findings of this paper mean that CEO's expectations may influence industrial production in construction industry.

The research on daily temperature using continuous AR model (일별 온도의 연속형 자기회귀모형 연구 - 6개 광역시를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji Young;Jeong, Kiho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2014
  • This study uses a continuous autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze daily average temperature in six Korean metropolitan cities. Data period is Jan. 1, 1954 to Dec. 31, 2010 covering 57 years. Using a relative long time series reveals that the linear time trend components are all statistically significant in the six cities, which was not shown in previous studies. Particularly the plus sign of its coefficient implies the effect on Korea of the global warming. Unit-root test results are that the temperature time series are stationary without unit-root. It turns out that CAR(3) is suitable for stochastic component of the daily temperature. Since developing suitable continuous stochastic model of the underlying weather related variables is crucial in pricing the weather derivatives, the results in this study will likely prove useful in further future studies on pricing weather derivatives.

Radiolysis Assessment of $^{18}F$-FDG According to Automatic Synthesis Module (자동합성장치에 따른 $^{18}F$-FDG의 방사선분해 평가)

  • Kim, Si-Hwal;Kim, Dong-Il;Chi, Yong-Gi;Choi, Sung-Wook;Choi, Choon-Ki;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.8-11
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : Among quality control items, the radiochemical impurity must be below 10% of total radioactivity. In this regard, as the recently commercialized automatic synthesis module produces a large amount of 18F-FDG, radiolysis of radiopharmaceuticals is very likely to occur. Thus, this study compared the changes in radiochemical purity regarding radiolysis of $^{18}F$-FDG according to automatic synthesis module. Materials and methods : Cyclotron (PETtrace, GE Healthcare) was used to produce $^{18}F$ and automatic synthesis module (FASTlab, Tracerlab MX, GE Healthcare) was used to achieve synthesis into FDG. For radiochemical purity, Radio-TLC Scanner (AR 2000, Bioscan), GC (Gas Chromatograph, Agilent 7890A) was used to measure the content of ethanol included in $^{18}F$-FDG. Glass board applied with silica gel ($1{\times}10cm$) was used for stationary phase while a mixed liquid formed of acetonitrile and water (ratio 19:1) was used for mobile phase. High-concentration and low-concentration $^{18}F$-FDG were produced in each synthesis module and the radiochemical purity was measured every 2 hours. Results : The purity in low-concentration (below 2.59 GBq/mL) was measured as 99.26%, 98.69%, 98.25%, 98.09% in Tracerlab MX and as 99.09%, 97.83%, 96.89%, 96.62% in FASTlab according to 0, 2, 4, 6 hours changes, respectively. The purity in high-concentration (above 3.7 GBq/mL) was measured as 99.54%, 96.08%, 93.77%, 92.54% in Tracerlab MX and as 99.53%, 95.65%, 92.39%, 89.82% in FASTlab according to 0, 2, 4, 6 hours changes, respectively. Also, ethanol was not detected in GC of $^{18}F$-FDG produced in FASTlab, while 100~300 ppm ethanol was detected in Tracerlab MX. Conclusion : Whereas the change of radiochemical purity was only 3% in low-concentration $^{18}F$-FDG, the change was rapidly increased to 10% in high-concentration. Also, higher radiolysis were observed in $^{18}F$-FDG produced in FASTlab than Tracerlab MX. This is because ethanol is included in the synthesis stage of Tracerlab MX but not in the synthesis stage of FASTlab. Thus, radiolysis is influenced by radioactivity concentration than the inclusion of ethanol, which is the radioprotector. Therefore, after producing high-concentration $^{18}F$-FDG, the content must be diluted through saline to lower concentration.

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