Land and Housing Review (토지주택연구)

Land and Housing Research Institute (한국토지주택공사 토지주택연구원)
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The Lead-Lag Relationship between BSI and Industrial Production Index in Construction Industry

건설업 BSI와 산업생산지수 간의 선후행성

  • Received : 2020.09.17
  • Accepted : 2020.10.12
  • Published : 2020.10.30
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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to scrutinize the relation between Business Survey Index and Industrial Production Index in construction industry, stated in another way, the relation between CEO's expectations of future business status and real business activity in construction industry. Previous papers on this research area have been examined the relation between released BSI and released IPI. However, this paper focuses 'the relation between released BSI and the long-run component of IPI' and 'the relation between released BSI and the short-run component of IPI'. The first step is to decompose released IPI by unobserved component model. The long-run component of IPI is set up as a random walk process. And short-run component is set up as a stationary AR(1) process. The findings are as follows. First, released BSI Granger causes unidirectionally released IPI. Second, there exists one-way Granger causality from released BSI to long-run component of IPI. Third, Granger causality does not exist between released BSI and 'short-run component of IPI'. BSI increases IPI in the second or third month. These findings of this paper mean that CEO's expectations may influence industrial production in construction industry.

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References

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