• Title/Summary/Keyword: State transition

Search Result 1,888, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Nonlinear Kalman filter bias correction for wind ramp event forecasts at wind turbine height

  • Xu, Jing-Jing;Xiao, Zi-Niu;Lin, Zhao-Hui
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.393-403
    • /
    • 2020
  • One of the growing concerns of the wind energy production is wind ramp events. To improve the wind ramp event forecasts, the nonlinear Kalman filter bias correction method was applied to 24-h wind speed forecasts issued from the WRF model at 70-m height in Zhangbei wind farm, Hebei Province, China for a two-year period. The Kalman filter shows the remarkable ability of improving forecast skill for real-time wind speed forecasts by decreasing RMSE by 32% from 3.26 m s-1 to 2.21 m s-1, reducing BIAS almost to zero, and improving correlation from 0.58 to 0.82. The bias correction improves the forecast skill especially in wind speed intervals sensitive to wind power prediction. The fact shows that the Kalman filter is especially suitable for wind power prediction. Moreover, the bias correction method performs well under abrupt weather transition. As to the overall performance for improving the forecast skill of ramp events, the Kalman filter shows noticeable improvements based on POD and TSS. The bias correction increases the POD score of up-ramps from 0.27 to 0.39 and from 0.26 to 0.38 for down-ramps. After bias correction, the TSS score is significantly promoted from 0.12 to 0.26 for up-ramps and from 0.13 to 0.25 for down-ramps.

Timetabling and Analysis of Train Connection Schedule Using Max-Plus Algebra (Max-Plus 대수를 이용한 환승 스케줄 시간표 작성 및 분석)

  • Park, Bum-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.267-275
    • /
    • 2009
  • Max-plus algebra is a nonlinear system comprised of two operations, maximization (max) and addition (Plus), which are corresponding to the addition and the multiplication in conventional algebra, respectively. This methodology is applicable to many discrete event systems containing the state transition with the maximization and addition operation. Timetable with connection is one of such systems. We present the method based on max-plus algebra, which can make up timetable considering transfer and analyse its stability and robustness. In this study, it will be shown how to make up the timetable of the urban train and analyse its stability using Max-Plus algebra.

Designing the Instructional Framework and Cognitive Learning Environment for Artificial Intelligence Education through Computational Thinking (Computational Thinking 기반의 인공지능교육 프레임워크 및 인지적학습환경 설계)

  • Shin, Seungki
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
    • /
    • v.23 no.6
    • /
    • pp.639-653
    • /
    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to design an instructional framework and cognitive learning environment for AI education based on computational thinking in order to ground the theoretical rationale for AI education. Based on the literature review, the learning model is proposed to select the algorithms and problem-solving models through the abstraction process at the stage of data collection and discovery. Meanwhile, the instructional model of AI education through computational thinking is suggested to enhance the problem-solving ability using the AI by performing the processes of problem-solving and prediction based on the stages of automating and evaluating the selected algorithms. By analyzing the research related to the cognitive learning environment for AI education, the instructional framework was composed mainly of abstraction which is the core thinking process of computational thinking through the transition from the stage of the agency to modeling. The instructional framework of AI education and the process of constructing the cognitive learning environment presented in this study are characterized in that they are based on computational thinking, and those are expected to be the basis of further research for the instructional design of AI education.

Road Sign Tracking using Affine-AR Model and Robust Statistics (어파인-자기 회귀 모델과 강인 통계를 사용한 교통 표지판 추적)

  • Yoon, Chang-Yong;Cheon, Min-Kyu;Lee, Hee-Jin;Kim, Eun-Tai;Park, Mig-Non
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
    • /
    • v.46 no.5
    • /
    • pp.126-134
    • /
    • 2009
  • This paper describes the vision-based system to track road signs from within a moving vehicle. The proposed system has the standard architecture with particle filter due to its robust tracking performance in complex environment. In the case of tracking road signs in real environment, it has a great difficulty in predicting time series data by reason of an occlusion due to an obstacle and the rapid change of objects on roads. To overcome this problem and improve the tracking performance, this paper proposes the algorithm using an autoregressive model as an state transition model which has affine parameters as states and using robust statistics for determining occlusion due to obstacles. The experiments of this paper show that the proposed method is efficient for real time tracking of road signs and performs well in road signs under occlusion due to obstacles.

Buckling Analysis of Axisymmetric Shells by Incremental Finite Element Mothod (증분형(增分形) 유한요소법(有限要素法)에 의한 축대칭(軸對稱) Shell구조(構造)의 좌굴해석(挫屈解析))

  • J.B.,Kim;C.Y.,Kim
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-30
    • /
    • 1985
  • This paper deals whth the buckling as well as postbuckling analysis of axisymmertric shells taking the initial deflection effects into account. Incremental equilibrium equations, based on the principle of virtual work, were derived by the finite element method, the successive step-by-step Newton-Raphson iterative technique was adopted. To define the transition pattern of postbuckling behavior from the prebuckling state more accurately, a simple solution method was developed, i.e. the critical load was calculated by the load extrapolation method with the determinant of tangent stiffness matrix and the equilibrium configuration in the immediate postbuckling stage was obtained by perturbation scheme and eigenvalue analysis. Degenerated isoparametric shell elements were used to analyse the axisymmetric shell of revolution. And by the method developed in this paper, the computer program applicable to the nonlinear analysis of both thin and moderately thick shells was constructed. To verify the capabilities and accuracies of the present solution method, the computed results were compared with the results of analytical solutions. These results coincided fairly well in both the small deflection and large deflection ranges. Various numerical analyses were done to show the effect of initial deflection and shape of shells on buckling load and postbuckling behavior. Futhermore, corrected directions of applied loads at every increment steps were used to determine the actual effects of large deflection in non-conservative load systems such as hydrostatic pressure load. The following conclusions can be obtained. (1) The method described in this paper was found to be both economic and effective in calculating buckling load and postbuckling behavior of shell structure. (2) Buckling and postbuckling behavior of spherical caps is critically dependent upon their geometric configuration, i.e. the shape of spherical cap and quantities of the initial deflection. (3) In the analysis of large deflection problems of shells by the incremental method, corrections of the applied load directions are needed at every incremental step to compensate the follower force effects.

  • PDF

A Kinetic Study on Aminolysis of S-4-Nitrophenyl Thiobenzoate in H2O Containing 20 mol % DMSO and 44 wt % EtOH: Effect of Medium on Reactivity and Mechanism

  • Ahn, Jung-Ae;Park, Youn-Min;Um, Ik-Hwan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.214-218
    • /
    • 2009
  • Second-order rate constants ($k_N$) have been measured for nucleophilic substitution reactions of S-4-nitrophenyl thiobenzoate with a series of alicyclic secondary amines in $H_2O$ containing 20 mol % DMSO at 25.0 ${\pm}$ 0.1 ${^{\circ}C}$. The Br$\phi$nsted-type plot exhibits a downward curvature, i.e., $\beta_{nuc}$ decreases from 0.94 to 0.34 as the amine basicity increases. The reactions in the aqueous DMSO have also been suggested to proceed through a zwitterionic tetrahedral intermediate (T${\pm}$) with change in the RDS on the basis of the curved Br$\phi$nsted-type plot. The reactions in the aqueous DMSO exhibit larger $k_N$ values than those in the aqueous EtOH. The macroscopic rate constants ($k_N$) for the reactions in the two solvent systems have been dissected into the microscopic rate constants ($k_1\;and\;k_2/k_{-1}$ ratio) to investigate effect of medium on reactivity in the microscopic level. It has been found that the $k_2/k_{-1}$ ratios are similar for the reactions in the two solvent systems, while $k_1$ values are larger for the reactions in 20 mol % DMSO than for those in 44 wt % EtOH, indicating that the larger $k_1$ is mainly responsible for the larger $k_N$. It has been suggested that the transition state is more stabilized in 20 mol % DMSO through mutual polarizability interaction than in 44 wt % EtOH through H-bonding interaction.

Metal-Ion Catalysis in Alkaline Ethanolysis of 2-Pyridyl Thionobenzoate: Effects of Modification of Electrophilic Center from C=O to C=S

  • Um, Ik-Hwan;Song, Yoon-Ju;Kim, Min-Young;Lee, Jae-In
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • v.34 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1525-1529
    • /
    • 2013
  • Pseudo-first-order rate constants ($k_{obsd}$) have been measured spectrophotometrically for the nucleophilic substitution reactions of 2-pyridyl thionobenzoate (5b) with alkali-metal ethoxides (EtOM, $M^+=Li^+$, $Na^+$, $K^+$, and 18-crown-6-ether complexed $K^+$) in anhydrous ethanol at $25.0{\pm}0.1^{\circ}C$. The plots of $k_{obsd}$ vs. $[EtOM]_o$ curve upward regardless of the nature of the $M^+$ ions, while those of $k_{obsd}/[EtO^-]_{eq}$ vs. $[EtO^-]_{eq}$ are linear with a positive intercept. Dissection of $k_{obsd}$ into $k_{EtO^-}$ and $k_{EtOM}$ (i.e., the second-order rate constants for the reactions with the dissociated $EtO^-$ and ion-paired EtOM, respectively) has revealed that the ion-paired EtOM is more reactive than the dissociated $EtO^-$, and $M^+$ ions catalyze the reactions in the order $K^+$ < $Na^+$ < $Li^+$ < 18C6-complexed $K^+$. The plot of log $k_{EtOM}$ vs. $1/r_{Stokes}$ results in an excellent linear correlation, indicating that the reactions are catalyzed by the solvated $M^+$ ions but not by the bare $M^+$ ions. The reactions of 5b with EtOM have been concluded to proceed through a six-membered cyclic TS, in which the solvated $M^+$ ions increase the electrophilicity of the reaction center and the nucleofugality of the leaving group.

APPLICATIONS OF THE HILBERT-HUANG TRANSFORM ON THE NON-STATIONARY ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES

  • HU, CHIN-PING;CHOU, YI;YANG, TING-CHANG;SU, YI-HAO;HSIEH, HUNG-EN;LIN, CHING-PING;CHUANG, PO-SHENG;LIAO, NAI-HUI
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.605-607
    • /
    • 2015
  • The development of time-frequency analysis techniques allow astronomers to successfully deal with the non-stationary time series that originate from unstable physical mechanisms. We applied a recently developed time-frequency analysis method, the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), to two non-stationary phenomena: the superorbital modulation in the high-mass X-ray binary SMC X-1 and the quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of the AGN RE J1034+396. From the analysis of SMC X-1, we obtained a Hilbert spectrum that shows more detailed information in both the time and frequency domains. Then, a phase-resolved analysis of both the spectra and the orbital profiles was presented. From the spectral analysis, we noticed that the iron line production is dominated by different regions of this binary system in different superorbital phases. Furthermore, a pre-eclipse dip lying at orbital phase ~0:6-0:85 was discovered during the superorbital transition state. We further applied the HHT to analyze the QPO of RE J1034+396. From the Hilbert spectrum and the O-C analysis results, we suggest that it is better to divide the evolution of the QPO into three epochs according to their different periodicities. The correlations between the QPO periods and corresponding fluxes were also different in these three epochs. The change in periodicity and the relationships could be interpreted as the change in oscillation mode based on the diskoseismology model.

Oxygen Ring Formation Reaction of Monoxo-Bridged Binuclear Molybdenum (V) Complexes (I). Reaction of $[Mo_2O_3(bipy)_2(NCS)_4]$ with Solvent Water in Aqueous Acetone Mixture (한개의 산소다리를 가진 몰리브덴 (V) 착물의 산소고리화반응 (I). 아세톤 수용매에서 용매물과 $[Mo_2O_3(bipy)_2(NCS)_4]$ 의 반응)

  • Oh Sang Oh;Jin Ki Kwon;Chang Su Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.345-351
    • /
    • 1986
  • Monoxo-bridged binuclear molybdenum(V) complex, $[Mo_2O_3\;(bipy)_2\;(NCS)_4]$ in aqueous acetone mixture produces the corresponding dioxo-bridged binuclear molybdenum(V) complex, $MoO_4(bipy)_2(NCS)_2$. The rate of conversion of $[Mo_2O_3(bipy)_2(NCS)_4]$ to $MoO_4(bipy)_2(NCS)_2$ has been measured by spectrophotometric method. The rate of formation of dioxo-bridged binuclear molybdenum(V) complexes with solvent water follows the rate law, rate = k$[Mo_2O_3(bipy)_2(NCS)_4]\;[H_2O]$. The reaction mechanism for the formation of dioxo-bridged complex is discussed. The observed negative volume of activation shows that the complex is strongly attracted to the solvent molecules at transition state.

  • PDF

Mechanism on the Hydrolysis of Cinnamonitrile in Strong Acid (强酸性 溶液中에서 Cinnamonitrile의 加水分解 反應메카니즘)

  • Ki-Sung Kwon;Nack-Do Sung;Tae-Rin Kim;Jeon, Yong Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.6
    • /
    • pp.418-424
    • /
    • 1984
  • Rate constants for the hydrolysis of cinnamonitrile in the concentration range of 1 ∼ 5M of perchloric acid at 25$^{\circ}$C have been determined by UV spectrophotometry and from the Bunnett equations, hydration parameters (${\omega}$ = 9.8, ${\omega}^*$ = 0.42 & ${\phi}$=1.6) were obtained. CNDO/2 MO calculations were performed to determine relative stability, net charges, and overlap population of various conformational isomers. The results show that the (E)-planar is more stable than the (Z)-planar and protonation is favored on the nitrogen atom. On the basis of above findings, the acid hydrolysis is initiated by the protonation of the nitrogen atom of cinnamonitrile and then water molecule acting as nucleophile and as a proton transfer agent in the rate determining step. In the transition state of the acid hydrolysis, nucleophilic addition of water molecule occurs by sigma approach to the positively charged $C_7({\alpha}$) atom of the conjugate acid. As the results, we may conclude that the hydrolysis of cinnamonitrile in the strong acidic media proceeds through the A-2 type mechanism.

  • PDF