• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제26권12호
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• pp.1729-1737
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• 2002

A mathematical model for the prediction of carbon-dioxide absorption rate during the transient state of rotary type absorber is developed. The rotary type absorber operates using a fast rotating porous structure and clean water. The model for the transient state rotary type absorbers is based on the steady state model of packed tower absorber. The paper manipulates the operating data of an arbitrary quasi-steady state condition of rotary type absorber for the determination of the coefficients involved in the model developed. The prediction accuracy is evaluated from the measured data of rotary type absorber operated under fast transient state. The measured data include the mole fraction of carbon dioxide in mixed gas and the pressure of absorber. The relative error in carbon dioxide prediction is estimated to be 20% at maximum. The model is successfully applied for the prediction of the behavior of a closed cycle diesel engine.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.461-472
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• 2024

We propose a network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination. Network traffic is modeled by an autoregressive moving average model, and the error between the measured and predicted network traffic values is obtained. Then, an echo state network is used to fit the prediction error with nonlinear components. In addition, an improved slime mold algorithm is proposed for reservoir parameter optimization of the echo state network, further improving the regression performance. The predictions of the linear (autoregressive moving average) and nonlinear (echo state network) models are added to obtain the final prediction. Compared with other prediction models, test results on two network traffic datasets from mobile and fixed networks show that the proposed prediction model has a smaller error and difference measures. In addition, the coefficient of determination and index of agreement is close to 1, indicating a better data fitting performance. Although the proposed prediction model has a slight increase in time complexity for training and prediction compared with some models, it shows practical applicability.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.147-156
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• 2013

현대 사회의 각 분야는 산업화와 과학기술의 발전으로 빠르게 변화한다. 그러나 빠른 사회 변화의 부작용으로 다양한 문제가 발생하고 있는데, 그 중 범죄는 큰 문제이다. 본 논문은 범죄를 예측하기 위한 모델로 마코프 체인을 적용한 범죄 예측 모델링을 제안한다. 기존의 마코프 체인 모델링은 한 사건의 전체 상태만으로 미래 예측 확률을 구하였으나, 본 논문은 사건 발생 확률 예측을 높이기 위해 전체 상태 예측 확률과 최근 상태 예측 확률로 나누었다. 그리고 전체 상태 예측 확률과 최근 상태 예측 확률의 평균값을 적용하여 미래 예측 확률 모델링으로 구현했다. 데이터는 범죄 발생 건수를 적용하였다. 그 결과 전체 상태만을 대상으로 예측확률을 적용 하였을 때 보다, 전체 상태와 최근상태로 나누어 확률 값을 구한 후, 그 평균값을 예측 확률로 적용하였을 때, 범죄 발생 예측에 근접하다는 결론을 얻었다.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• 제17권2E호
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• pp.26-30
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• 1998

In this paper, we compose neural network predictive HMM(NNPHMM) to provide the dynamic feature of the speech pattern for the HMM. The NNPHMM is the hybrid network of neura network and the HMM. The NNPHMM trained to predict the future vector, varies each time. It is used instead of the mean vector in the HMM. In the experiment, we compared the recognition abilities of the one hundred Korean syllables according to the variation of hidden layer, state number and prediction orders of the NNPHMM. The hidden layer of NNPHMM increased from 10 dimensions to 30 dimensions, the state number increased from 4 to 6 and the prediction orders increased from 10 dimensions to 30 dimension, the state number increased from 4 to 6 and the prediction orders increased from the second oder to the fourth order. The NNPHMM in the experiment is composed of multi-layer perceptron with one hidden layer and CMHMM. As a result of the experiment, the case of prediction order is the second, the average recognition rate increased 3.5% when the state number is changed from 4 to 5. The case of prediction order is the third, the recognition rate increased 4.0%, and the case of prediction order is fourth, the recognition rate increased 3.2%. But the recognition rate decreased when the state number is changed from 5 to 6.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.1269-1289
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• 2014

With the sub-stepping technique, the numerical analysis in real-time dynamic hybrid testing is split into the response analysis and signal generation tasks. Two target computers that operate in real-time may be assigned to implement these two tasks, respectively, for fully extending the simulation scale of the numerical substructure. In this case, the integration time-step of solving the dynamic response of the numerical substructure can be dozens of times bigger than the sampling time-step of the controller. The time delay between the real and desired feedback forces becomes more striking, which challenges the well-developed delay compensation methods in real-time dynamic hybrid testing. This paper focuses on displacement prediction and force correction for delay compensation in the real-time dynamic hybrid testing with a large integration time-step. A new displacement prediction scheme is proposed based on recently-developed explicit integration algorithms and compared with several commonly-used prediction procedures. The evaluation of its prediction accuracy is carried out theoretically, numerically and experimentally. Results indicate that the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed prediction method are of significance.

• 전자공학회논문지CI
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• 제45권5호
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• pp.8-14
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• 2008

인지 무선(Cognitive Radio : CR) 시스템의 개발은 Mitola 가 제안한 개념의 완전 인지 무선(Full Cognitive Radio)시스템과 현재 표준화 논의가 진행 중인 스펙트럼 인지무선 시스템의 두 가지 방향으로 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문은 스펙트럼 인지무선 시스템을 위한 인지 엔진(Cognitive Engine : CE)을 개발 하고 인지 엔진의 핵심 기능인 채널 집합 관리 알고리즘에 대한 가상 실험을 통해 성능 분석을 하였다. 채널 집합 관리는 과거의 채널 점유 기록을 기반으로 CR시스템의 이동 가능 채널들 중 채널 품질 및 유휴 가능성이 높은 채널을 평가하고 결정하는 기능을 수행한다. 이를 위한 핵심 기능이 채널 상태 예측이고 본 논문에서는 채널 상태 예측을 위해 은닉 마르코프 모델(HMM)의 활용을 제안하였으며 HMM기반의 채널 상태 예측 성능을 향상 시킬 방법을 제안 및 적용하여 가상 실험을 하였다. 가상 실험 결과 채널 상태 예측 성능의 향상을 확인하였고 난수 선택 방법(Random Selection), 통계적 선택 방법(Statistical Selection) 과의 성능 비교를 통해 본 논문에서 제안한 방법의 우월성을 검증하였다.

• Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.18-28
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• 2002

Neural network based models were developed and evaluated for predicting corn yield from aerial images based on 1998 and 1994 image data. The model used images in multi-spectral bands such as R, G, B, and IR (Red, Green, Blue and Infrared). The inputs to the neural network consisted of mean and standard deviation of multispectral bands of the aerial images. Performances of several neural network architectures using back-propagation with momentum were compared. The maximum yield prediction accuracy obtained was 97.81%. The BPNN model prediction accuracy could be enhanced by using more number of observations to the model, other data transformation techniques, or by performing optical calibration of the aerial image.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2000년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.201-208
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• 2000

In this study, the behavior of saturated sandy soils under dynamic loads - pore water pressure and effective stress - was investigated using Disturbed State Concept(DSC) model. The model parameters are evaluated from laboratory test data. During the process of loading and reverse loading, DSC model is utilized to trace strain-hardening and cyclic softening behavior. The procedure of back prediction proposed in this study are verified by comparing with laboratory test results. From the back prediction of pore water pressure and effective mean pressure under cyclic loading, excess pore water pressure increases up to initial effective confining pressure and effective mean pressure decrease close to zero in good greement with laboratory test results. Those results represent the liquefaction of saturated sandy soils under dynamic loads. The number of cycles at initial liquefaction using the model prediction is in good agreement with laboratory test results. Therefore, the results of this study state that the liquefaction of saturated sandy soils can be explained by the effective tress analysis.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.48-55
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• 2024

최근에 무인항공기의 사업화가 활발하게 추진됨에 따라 무인항공기의 안전성 확보를 위한 기술 개발에 많은 관심이 집중되고 있다. 일반적으로 무인항공기는 운용 중 급기동, 외란, 조종사 실수 등으로 인하여 조종 불능의 상태로 진입할 가능성을 지닌다. 조종 불능 상태로의 진입을 예방하기 위해서는 무인항공기의 비행 상태를 예측하는 것이 필수적으로 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 무인항공기의 비행 상태 예측 성능의 향상을 위하여 개선된 CNN-LSTM 혼합모델을 제안한다. 모의실험은 제안하는 모델을 이용한 예측 기법이 기존 예측 기법에 비하여 비행 상태 예측 성능이 우수하며 온보드 환경에서 실시간으로 운용됨을 보인다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.39-42
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• 2002

For the purpose of modeling EEG signal which has nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic characteristics, this paper propose a state feedback real time recurrent neural network model. The state feedback real time recurrent neural network is structured to have memory structure in the state of hidden layers so that it has arbitrary dynamics and ability to deal with time-varying input through its own temporal operation. For the model test, Mackey-Glass time series is used as a nonlinear dynamic system and the model is applied to the prediction of three types of EEG, alpha wave, beta wave and epileptic EEG. Experimental results show that the performance of the proposed model is better than that of other neural network models which are compared in this paper in some view points of the converging speed in learning stage and normalized mean square error for the test data set.