• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.146-151
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• 2017

Six major outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred from 2003 to 2016 in Korea. Epidemiological investigations of each outbreak revealed that migratory birds were the primary source of the HPAI virus. During the last five years, the geographic transmission pattern of domestic HPAI seems to have extended from local to nationwide; therefore, it is necessary to identify specific locations in which poultry farms are at elevated risk for HPAI outbreak to enable targeted surveillance and other mitigation strategies. Here, a geographical information system (GIS)-based analysis was used to identify geographic areas at high risk for future HPAI incidents in Korea based on historical outbreak data collected between December 2003 and April 2016. To accomplish this, seven criteria were used to identify areas at high-risk for HPAI occurrence. The first three criteria were based on defined spatial criteria buffering of 200 bird migration sites to some defined extents and the historical incidence of HPAI outbreaks at the buffering sites. The remaining criteria were based on combined attribute information such as number of birds or farms at district levels. Based on the criteria established for this study, the most-likely areas at higher risk for HPAI outbreak were located in Chungcheong, Jeolla, Gyeonggi, and Gyeongnam provinces, which are densely populated poultry regions considered major poultry-production areas that are located along bird migration sites. The proportion of areas at risk for HPAI occurrence ranged from 4.5% to 64.9%. For the worst criteria, all nine provinces, including Jeju Island, were found to be at risk of HPAI. The results of this study indicate that the number of poultry farms at risk for HPAI outbreaks is largely underestimated by current regulatory risk assessment procedures conducted for biosecurity authorization. The HPAI risk map generated in this study will enable easy use of information by policy makers to identify surveillance zones and employ targeted surveillance to reduce the impact of HPAI transmission.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권7호
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• pp.3009-3014
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• 2015

The epidermal growth factor (EGF) may play a pathological role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the conclusions of published reports on the relationship between the EGF $61^*A/G$ polymorphism and HCC risk remain controversial. To derive a more precise estimation we performed a meta-analysis based on 14 studies that together included 2,506 cases and 4,386 controls. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Knowledge and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were used to retrieve articles up to August 1, 2014. The crude odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated to evaluate the association. Meta-analysis results showed a significant association between the EGF $61^*A/G$ polymorphism and HCC risk in all four genetic models (allele model: OR=1.25, 95%CI=1.12-1.40; dominant model: OR=1.32, 95%CI=1.14-1.54; recessive model: OR=1.33, 95%CI=1.12-1.58; ho-mozygous model: OR=1.59, 95%CI=1.33-1.90). Moreover, significant associations were observed when stratified by ethnicity, source of controls, etiology and genotype methods. Thus, this meta-analysis suggests that the G-allele of the EGF $61^*A/G$ polymorphism is associated with an increased risk of HCC, especially in Asians and Caucasians, without influence from the source of controls or etiological diversity. Further studies with larger population sizes are needed to confirm these results.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• 제24권E1호
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• pp.32-43
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• 2008

Source samples were collected to construct source profiles for 9 different source types, including soil, road dust, gasoline/diesel-powered vehicles, a municipal incinerator, industrial sources, agricultural/biomass burning, marine aerosol, and a coal-fired power plant. Seasonal profiles for 'Chinese aerosol', aerosols derived from the urban area of China, were reconstructed from seasonal $PM_{2.5}$ compositions reported in Beijing, China. Ambient $PM_{2.5}$ at a receptor site was also measured during each of the four seasons, from April 2001 to February 2002, in Seoul. The Chemical Mass Balance receptor model was applied to quantify source contributions during the study period using the estimated source profiles. Consequently, motor vehicle exhaust (33.0%), in particular 23.9% for diesel-powered vehicles, was the largest contributor affecting the $PM_{2.5}$ levels in Seoul, followed by agricultural/biomass burning (21.5%) and 'Chinese aerosol' (13.1%), indicating contributions from long-range transport. The largest contributors by season were: for spring, 'Chinese aerosol' (31.7%); for summer, motor vehicle exhaust (66.9%); and for fall and winter, agricultural/biomass burning (31.1% and 40.1%, respectively). These results show different seasonal patterns and sources affecting the $PM_{2.5}$ level in Seoul, than those previously reported for other cities in the world.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

Most factories deal with toxic or flammable chemicals in their industrial processes. These hazardous substances pose a risk of leakage due to accidents, such as fire and explosion. In the event of chemical release, massive casualties and property damage can result; hence, quantitative risk prediction and assessment are necessary. Several methods are available for evaluating chemical dispersion in the atmosphere, and most analyses are considered neutral in dispersion models and under far-field wind condition. The foregoing assumption renders a model valid only after a considerable time has elapsed from the moment chemicals are released or dispersed from a source. Hence, an initial dispersion model is required to assess risk quantitatively and predict the extent of damage because the most dangerous locations are those near a leak source. In this study, the dispersion model for initial consequence analysis was developed with three-dimensional unsteady advective diffusion equation. In this expression, instantaneous leakage is assumed as a puff, and wind velocity is considered as a coordinate transform in the solution. To minimize the buoyant force, ethane is used as leaked fuel, and two different diffusion coefficients are introduced. The calculated concentration field with a molecular diffusion coefficient shows a moving circular iso-line in the horizontal plane. The maximum concentration decreases as time progresses and distance increases. In the case of using a coefficient for turbulent diffusion, the dispersion along the wind velocity direction is enhanced, and an elliptic iso-contour line is found. The result yielded by a widely used commercial program, ALOHA, was compared with the end point of the lower explosion limit. In the future, we plan to build a more accurate and general initial risk assessment model by considering the turbulence diffusion and buoyancy effect on dispersion.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.91-97
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• 2005

베이지안 기법은 객관적 자료 이외에 주관적 지식도 평가에 반영하는 특성으로 인해 최근 PRA에서 널리 사용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 비파괴검사 장비 분실에 대한 방사선 위험도를 평가하기 위해 베이지안 기법을 활용하였다. U.S. NRC에서 제시한 선원분실 피폭 시나리오를 국내 실정에 맞게 재구성하였고 안전인자의 사고발생 확률에 국한하여 적용하였다. 사고발생 확률수정의 경우 Jeffreys사전분포를 사용한 결과가 모호사전분포를 사용한 결과보다 5 % 베이즈 하한치가 더 낮아서 방사선 사고와 같은 낮은 사고발생 확률을 가지는 시스템에 대한 위험도 평가에 적합하다. 위험도의 결과를 보면 일반인의 연간 예상되는 평균선량은 베이지안 기법이 고전적인 기법에 의거한 평가보다 높은 선량을 나타내는데 이는 수정된 안전인자 확률의 평균이 고전적 확률 참보다 높게 평가된 것에 기인한다. 국내의 경우 방사선 위험도 평가를 위한 자료구축이 미비한 바 베이지안 기법은 위험도 평가에 유용한 대안으로 활용할 수 있으며 이러한 연구는 위험도 정보-기반 규제에 기여할 것이다.

• 가족자원경영과 정책
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.57-89
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• 2008

Using the data of 'middle-and old-aged people' in the 6th year(2003) of KLIPS(Korea Labor and Income Panel Study), this study compared entirely retired men's income source and amount of income divided by the time of retirement and analyzed the determinants of main income source and amount of income level using Multinomial Logit Analysis and Tobit Analysis. The results of these were as following; First, Entirely retired men has average 1.27 income source and the amount of income from main income source is positioned at 85% of total income. This result indicates the lack of variety to get opportunities of income sources for the living and also means high risk associated with the entirely retired men if he looses the main income source. Second, most of income source of entirely retired men is spouse's earned income or private income transfers, however, if we divide those as timing of retirement and characters of each individual, it is represented that the most of income source is differentiated by the position at labor market during work life and the opportunity for building the wealth, and the possibility of obtaining public pension and public support. Third, the income level depends on what sort of income source the retired men has, this shows that there is not a strong relationship between obtaining a Income source and gaining above the certain level of income.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.89-98
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• 2016

Purpose - This article tackles risk communication issues and aims to address the characteristics of MERS risk information distribution in South Korea, and secondly to examine the communicative behavior of the public health authority in terms of the quality of communication strategies. Thirdly, the study attempts to figure out the risk communication to cope with MERS through the applications of SMCRE model in chronological order. We employ the social amplification of risk framework for analyzing the emergent public response as one of the main approaches. Research Design, Data and Methodology - The main framework of this study is theoretically based on the social amplification of risk, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The model also reflects the interactions between social groups and institutes about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. S-M-C-R-E Model is methodologically employed to examine the social amplification for MERS risk information in each period, which we defined operationally. The proposed methodology allows the assessment of effectiveness and ineffectiveness on risk communication to be conceptualized as a countermeasure against disasters. The paper focuses on exploring how social risk amplification can be applied and organized in each stage. Results - The SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stakeholders including public health authority, local government and media. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. The results support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of public health authority as a key factor of risk communication, but also a close cooperation and good collaboration with local governments. It does not seem to be possible that the government-initiated risk communication based on controllability and management cope effectively with infectious disease in early stage. The results of this study imply that the shared risks between local, regional and national authorities can enhance risk communication system. Conclusions - The study supports that the disparities in how disaster-related risk information is interpreted and coded, have made effective risk communication and public sense-making impeded. Our findings support a more communicative discussion about the role of risk information sharing between governments for the improvement of emergency management and underline the importance of social elements in the risk communication, such as relationship and trust building. Findings suggest that trust building between stakeholders could be added to help explain the processes of social amplification and attenuation of risk. It would be recommended that the continuous risk communication with all the involved stakeholders will be able to help national health promotion policy to be improved regarding emergency management. Furthermore, risk communication has to be a scientific approach for the communication pertaining to potentially sensitive or controversial situations with public concerns and low public trust.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2020

In recent years, hydrogen has received much attention as an alternative energy source to fossil fuels. In order to ensure safety from the increasing number of hydrogen refueling stations, prevention methods have been required. In this regard, this study suggested an approach to reduce the risk of hydrogen refueling station by increasing Safety Integrity Level (SIL) for a Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) in On-Site Hydrogen Refueling Station. The worst scenario in the SMR was selected by HAZOP and the required SIL for the worst scenario was identified by LOPA. To verify the required SIL, the PFDavg.(1/RRF) of Safety Instrumented System (SIS) in SMR was calculated by using realistic failure rate data of SIS. Next, several conditions were tested by varying the sensor redundancy and proof test interval reduction and their effects on risk reduction factor were investigated. Consequently, an improved condition, which were the redundancy of two-out-of-three and the proof test interval of twelve months, achieved the tolerable risk resulting in the magnitude of risk reduction factor ten times greater than that of the baseline condition.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권11호
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• pp.4913-4916
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• 2016

Objective: As a source of information, medical data can feature hidden relationships. However, the high volume of datasets and complexity of decision-making in medicine introduce difficulties for analysis and interpretation and processing steps may be needed before the data can be used by clinicians in their work. This study focused on the use of Bayesian models with different numbers of nodes to aid clinicians in breast cancer risk estimation. Methods: Bayesian networks (BNs) with a retrospectively collected dataset including mammographic details, risk factor exposure, and clinical findings was assessed for prediction of the probability of breast cancer in individual patients. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate discriminative performance. Result: A network incorporating selected features performed better (AUC = 0.94) than that incorporating all the features (AUC = 0.93). The results revealed no significant difference among 3 models regarding performance indices at the 5% significance level. Conclusion: BNs could effectively discriminate malignant from benign abnormalities and accurately predict the risk of breast cancer in individuals. Moreover, the overall performance of the 9-node BN was better, and due to the lower number of nodes it might be more readily be applied in clinical settings.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.105-128
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• 2005

The Purpose of the current study is to identify the differences between Samsung and Hyundai Group and the causes why the differences occurred. The study focuses on the founders of the two group as a main source of the differences, especially brain preference of the two founders. Two steps were employed to perform the study. Firstly, the two founders' characteristics were analyzed by using archival research. It was implicitly hypothesized that Group founders' characteristics explained the differences of the two Groups. It was found that the founder of Samsung Group, the late president Lee emphasized rationality, analysis, and cause/effect relationship and low risk taking, suggesting that he had left-brain preference. In contrast. the late president Chung, the founder of Hyundai Group, emphasized intuition, wholeness, contextual meaning, and risk taking, showing that he had right-brain preference. Secondly, a comparison between the two groups was performed in terms of business and financial risk in corporate portfolio, and management system. It was found that Hyundai Group was pursuing higher risk than Samsung Group. And it was observed that Samsung Group put more emphasis on formality in decision making and systematic control, and less emphasis on risk taking than Hyundai Group. From the two step research relationship between brian preference and management was reasoned. Research implications and limitations were discussed at the end of the study.