• Title/Summary/Keyword: Social Threat

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A Study on the Data Driven Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Time Series Data: Application of Water Surface Elevation Forecasting in Hangang River Bridge (시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 자료 기반 신경망 모델에 관한 연구: 한강대교 수위예측 적용)

  • Yoo, Hyungju;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Seohye;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

Analysis of Social Trends for Electric Scooters Using Dynamic Topic Modeling and Sentiment Analysis (동적 토픽 모델링과 감성 분석을 활용한 전동킥보드에 대한 사회적 동향 분석)

  • Kyoungok, Kim;Yerang, Shin
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2023
  • An electric scooter(e-scooter), one popularized micro-mobility vehicle has shown rapidly increasing use in many cities. In South Korea, the use of e-scooters has greatly increased, as some companies have launched e-scooter sharing services in a few large cities, starting with Seoul in 2018. However, the use of e-scooters is still controversial because of issues such as parking and safety. Since the perception toward the means of transportation affects the mode choice, it is necessary to track the trends for electric scooters to make the use of e-scooters more active. Hence, this study aimed to analyze the trends related to e-scooters. For this purpose, we analyzed news articles related to e-scooters published from 2014 to 2020 using dynamic topic modeling to extract issues and sentiment analysis to investigate how the degree of positive and negative opinions in news articles had changed. As a result of topic modeling, it was possible to extract three different topics related to micro-mobility technologies, shared e-scooter services, and regulations for micro-mobility, and the proportion of the topic for regulations for micro-mobility increased as shared e-scooter services increased in recent years. In addition, the top positive words included quick, enjoyable, and easy, whereas the top negative words included threat, complaint, and ilegal, which implies that people satisfied with the convenience of e-scooter or e-scooter sharing services, but safety and parking issues should be addressed for micro-mobility services to become more active. In conclusion, this study was able to understand how issues and social trends related to e-scooters have changed, and to determine the issues that need to be addressed. Moreover, it is expected that the research framework using dynamic topic modeling and sentiment analysis will be helpful in determining social trends on various areas.

Dilemma and Its Institutional Solutions in the Port ODA of Korea (항만분야 공적개발원조(ODA)의 딜레마 해소를 위한 제도 개선방안)

  • Kim, Bo Young;Kang, Yunho
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.409-419
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    • 2014
  • In accordance with the global age, countries in the world try to dedicate to collaboration among them through ODA (Official Development Assistance), in order to solve the-rich-get-richer and the poor-get-poorer problems among countries, to develop the developing countries' economies, and to improve their level of social welfare. Also, Korea is so active in ODA as a member of OECD, even if it is in the initial process. Nowadays, in Korea, the importance of ODA in the field of port has been brought into relief. Accordingly, the paper intends to analyze the dilemma structure of port ODA from the perspectives both of new institutionalism and Samaritan's dilemma game, and it tries to seek the improvements of ODA institutions to create effective outcomes based on the analysis. Through the analysis, dilemma structure was identified regarding the institutions of port ODA. And the results of the analysis suggested the improvements of port ODA institutions including strengthening of on-the-spot aid system, establishment of payoffs system for inducing recipient countries' efforts, and institutionalization of reliable threat. It would contribute to develop the theoretical model of ODA analysis and create effective outcomes of ODA in the field of ports.

Civilization conflict factors of the spread of Terrorism - Focusing on Islam and Christianity - (테러 확산의 문명 갈등적 요인 : 기독교와 이슬람을 중심으로)

  • Gong, Bae Wan
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2013
  • Occur in various parts of the world and the new aspects of the regional conflict is spreading. Nation and civilization, one based on religious ideology, hegemonic tendencies areas of conflict are factors that appear. It has the characteristic that inheritance and conflict between civilizations is spreading. Christian and Islamic books, especially the confrontation and conflict is surfaced in the international political aspects, and a threat to the security of the human race is approaching. To assert the superiority of Western Christianity emerging countries, the salvation of mankind and world peace mission with the historical non-democracy, human rights, women's rights, underdevelopment, nuclear issues, and the spirit of Christian civilization, considered to be linked and reverse, Democracy Launching and human rights issues are forcing Western development model. Islam believes in absolute monotheism that God Lord only determined by the 'slave' and having the determination to serve the religious, political, social and cultural nature ingrained, and closely adjacent to each other geographically, to focus on in quency characteristics higher than the other civilizations are appearing. To assert the doctrine of non-violent Islam 'Koran' and 'knife' became known as the violent images appear in the armed conflict between the culture method. Today the world is facing a clash of civilizations is derived from the religious conflicts and confrontation and friction between the nations appear. In particular, the deep religious roots of Christianity and Islam, the Arab-Israeli conflict, including the right to live in strife confrontation between Christianity and Islam was spread. By a factor of civilization and the spread of terrorism occurred historically proven came here from all over the earth that is being generated is true. Civilization are the symbol of the nation and the species identity.

Active Coping Strategy Model for Chronic Arthritis : Appling Internal Model of World and Coping Resource (내적모형과 대응자원을 이용한 만성관절염 환자의 적극적 대응전략모형)

  • Mun, Mi-Sook;Lim, Nan-Young
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.100-135
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    • 1999
  • Typical symptoms of rheumatic disease affect overall daily living and cause severe stress. Individuals afflicted with rheumatic disease have many illness-related stresses. Pain was the predominantly perceived stress followed by limitation in mobility, difficulties in carrying out activities of daily living. helplessness, dependency on others, threat to self-esteem, interference in social activity, interference in family relationships. difficulties performing at work, and discomfort of the treatment. Patients with chronic arthritis are subjected to long periods of continuous stress, which may require the management by the health care provider. In these cases, the purpose of the nursing is helping to promote health through supporting patient's coping. Therefore, for the nursing intervention to be effective, it is critical to build a theoretical framework that describes stress-coping for chronic arthritis. Thus, the purpose of this dissertation is to present a theoretical framework which describes the stress-coping processes and to empirically test pathos of this framework for the people with chronic arthritis. The foundation upon which this framework is built in the Erickson, Tomlin, and Swain(1983) theory of Modeling and role-Modeling. The subjects were 275 patients with rheumatoid arthritis or osteoarthritis who visited the outpatient clinic. A hypothetical model of stress-coping was tested by covariance structure analysis with PC-LISREL 8.12 program. As a result, the overall fit was good(Chi-square=94.49, P=0.00, RMR=0.067, GFI=0.95, AGFI=0.91, NNFI=0.93, NFI=0.91) for the hypothetical model. The results of hypothesis testing were as follows : Basic need satisfaction had a statistically significant influence on illness-related experience, emotional stress and coping resources. Internal health locus of control had a statistically significant influence on coping resources. However, independent variables(basic need satisfaction, internal health locus of control, illness-related experience, emotional stress and coping resource) did not have significantly influence on coping. And then, the hypothetical model was modified by considering both the theoretical implication and statistical significance of the parameter estimates. The revised model had a better fit to the data(Chi-square=83.11(P=0.00), RMR=0.061, GFI=0.96, AGFI=0.92, NNFI=0.95, NFI=0.92). Hypothesis emerged from the revised model was tested. The results of hypothesis testing were as follows : Basic need satisfaction had a statistically significant influence on illness-related experience, emotional stress and coping resources. Internal health locus of control had a statistically significant influence on illness-related experience and coping resources. Internal health locus of control, illness-related experience, emotional stress and coping resources had a significantly influence on coping. According to the results of this dissertation, basic need satisfaction and internal health locus of control play a central role in appraisal of illness-related experience and coping resources. And illness related-experience, emotional stress, and coping resources affect on coping activities. In summary, nursing interventions to enhance basic need satisfaction and internal health locus of control will decrease illness related experience and emotional stress and increase coping resources. Increased coping resources will prompt coping activities.

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Review on Prior Evaluation for Terrorism Risk of High-rise Buildings (초고층건축물의 테러 위험도 사전평가에 관한 연구)

  • Seong, Bin;Lee, Yoon-Ho
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.36
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    • pp.293-316
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    • 2013
  • Today's high-rise buildings are increasing concern about the safety and evacuation of people related to the fire and threat from outside. Terrorism breaking out in high-rise buildings, a symbol of the national economy results in a number of casualties, economic loss, social fear and damage to national status. That's why high-rise building has also emerged as a target of major terrorist attacks, compared to other types of buildings. We have 54 high-rise buildings in 15 regions over the country. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Seoul Metropolitan Government have offered the guidelines to prevent terrorist attacks toward high-rise buildings. Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has developed and taken advantage of the Risk Management Manual Series. According to this manual, pre-assessment is conducted for the prevention of terrorism and particularly in FEMA 455, risk of the surrounding areas, vulnerability, possibility from terrorist attacks are checked. After the check, experts classify the risk of terrorist attacks toward the high-rise buildings and according to the risk classification, architects, security experts and structure engineers can carry out terrorism prevention program for high-rise buildings. The U.K. NaCTSO has also offered the terrorism prevention guidelines. Therefore, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Seoul Metropolitan Government should make more concrete guidelines for high-rise buildings such as what U.S. FEMA and U.K. NaCTSO implement, including prior evaluation technique for terrorism risk.

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The Effect of the Community Incivility on the Fear of Crime - Focused on Moderation Effect of Private Security - (지역 무질서가 범죄두려움에 미치는 영향 - 민간경비의 조절효과 -)

  • Kim, Da-Eun;Park, Jong-Seung
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.50
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    • pp.341-366
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    • 2017
  • Today, crime has become a serious threat to social safety so citizen's desire for safety has increased. So the private security has emerged as a new industry for safety and security and became a crucial component. Private security is responsible not only covers the limitations of the police work, but also fills citizen's desire of security. However, quantitative research on private security has rarely been done and the results of the private security study are not effectively utilized due to biased research trends in Korea. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of community incivility on fear of crime and the moderation effect of private security. To accomplish this purpose, this research uses 6,919 samples from the National Crime Victimization Survey(2014) and conducts hierarchical regression through STATA 13.0 program. As a results, private security guard showed the main effect on the generalized fear of crime, but had not a significant influence on the interaction effect with the community incivility. On the other hand, the moderation effect of electronic security was statistically significant in relation to the community incivility and specific fear of crime. In other words, in a place with high physical disorder, the fear of crime is relatively low in the case of the electronic machine, compared with the case where there is no electronic machine. The implications and limitations based on these results are discussed in the conclusion.

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The Japanese View to Korea in Early Modern Era -Focusing on Discourse in Japanese Society and Korea-related Contents in Textbooks- (근대시기 일본이 바라보는 한국에 대한 시선 -일본사회의 담론과 교과서의 한국관련 콘텐츠를 중심으로-)

  • Park, So-Young;Jung, Ye-Sil
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.633-642
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    • 2016
  • This study looked into Japan's recognition of Korea in early modern era with particular focuses on discourse on Korea and contents in textbooks in those days. In doing so, the topics of nationality, historical recognition, and social aspects in Korea were established and discourse on these topics in educational journals and the contents of textbooks and teaching manuals projected with such discourse were investigated. As for nationality, a strong propensity to negative recognition was clearly observed, represented by the words lazy, enervate, and uncivilized. They defined Korea's history of passive, other-directed nature and described such incompetent national management resulted in negative nationality. Their recognition of Korean history went further away, stating Korea was incapable of maintaining its independence and was a threat to peace of Japan and Asia, hence the forced merger by Japan. The criteria for Japan to assess Korean society were Western civilization and they defined Korean society as a pre-modern society with lower levels of civilization and culture. Discourse in Japan over Korea in early modern era were strongly influenced by Japan's pride as a modern state and its dominating ideology of imperialism and such discussions were spread among students through textbooks and teaching manuals.

Korea's Public Diplomacy Policy towards Africa: Strategies, Instruments and Its Implications on Economic Linkages with Africa (한국의 대 아프리카 공공외교: 전략과 방안 그리고 경제 연계에 미치는 영향)

  • Ochieng, Haggai Kennedy;Iffat, Tahira;Kim, Sungsoo
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.312-333
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    • 2020
  • Korea-Africa relations date back to the period of independence of African countries. During this time, the ties between Korea and Africa has passed through stagnation, inconsistencies and weak diplomatic exchanges. Recently, Korea began to refocus its efforts towards Africa in order to revitalize their relations. This paper examines Korea's public diplomacy strategies towards Africa and how its various strategies are working in the interest of Korea as well as Africa. The study shows that Korea's renewed interest in Africa is primarily driven by the security threat from North Korea and the need to diversify its market for industrial goods as well as energy sources. The latter motives override Korea's interest in the continent. These motives are not at variance with those pursued by large powers like the US and China in Africa. Furthermore, the paper shows that Korea is employing a mixture of public diplomacy instruments in Africa with varied outcomes. Economic linkages between Korea and Africa are on an upward trajectory since the late 2000s. In order to build sustainable relations, the paper provides a number suggestions with far-reaching implications on Korea's public diplomacy towards Africa in the future.

The Impact of Cognitive Factors of IS Security Risk Management(ISM) on Awareness and Intention to Develop ISM (보안관리 인지 요인이 조직의 정보시스템 보안위험관리에 대한 인식 및 개발의지에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sanghyun;Song, Youngmi
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.21-46
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    • 2012
  • Organizations that make widely use of information technologies can be more efficient. But, the dependence of information technologies leads to an increase in threat of security. This is the reason why organizations are investing in security risk management (SRM) which is designed to protect of information assets. Noting a lack of empirical research in SRM, we investigate the key factors having a direct effect on performance of SRM. Particularly, this study focused on identifying factors influencing awareness of SRM and Intention to develop SRM in Organization. Based on relevant literature review, six motivating factors, including Behavior for Security Management, Compliance with Security Policy, perceived Benefits, Perceived Sacrifice, Social Pressure, Experience of Security Risks, were initially identified. The results indicated that most perception factors were positively related to Organization's intention to develop SRM and awareness of SRM, which then had positive impact on performance of SRM. But Perceived Sacrifice was not significantly related to two variables which is Organization's intention to develop SRM and awareness of SRM.

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