• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.8
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• pp.634-641
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• 2019

The world's population reached 7.7 billion in 2019. Despite this trend, not all cities are growing. Most of the growing population is driven to large cities for convenience and jobs. This phenomenon has led to a decrease in the population of small and medium-sized cities, and in certain cities, a decrease in employment as well as recession have resulted. Korea is no exception. The nation's population is concentrated in the metropolitan cities. To solve these problems, researchers started to study how to deal with the contraction of a city, i.e., a shrinking city, rather than focusing on only the growth of a city. In this paper, demographically outstanding declined domestic cities were selected as shrinking cities and their characteristics were analyzed. The concept of smart shrinking cities was then defined for the selected cities, which were chosen as a good case in overseas countries to solve the shrinking city problem. Through this process, the strategic differences were compared between domestic and oversea cases. As a result, a modified strategy for the smart shrinking city concept, FSSC (flexible smart shrinking city), is proposed as an alternative strategy that can save resources and cost.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2019

Recently, the city development policies are being switched to the policies focusing on recession worldwide. Even though South Korea is also facing the phenomena that small and medium-sized cities are downsized because of a decrease in population and an aging society problem, there is lack of solutions and even they are still planning city development policies based on prospect of high growth. This study is featuring 4 viewpoints depending on shrinking population trend in 7 small and medium sized local cities, which are chosen as downsized cities. It is dealing with population peak, current population, 2030 population, and 2040 population viewpoints. And this study uses downsizing simulation that suggests optimum area that fits population and then shows visual check of the status of the small and medium sized local cities. The area of the small and medium sized local cities are expanded more than needs when they are on population peak point. However, they need only 20% to 25% of current area in 2030 and 2040. The most important thing is realizing the seriousness and facing up to the 'shrinking' phenomena that each small and medium-sized cities suffer. Therefore, this study has significance for presenting the status of small and medium-sized cities' problems in South Korea.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.27-37
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• 2014

Recently increasing the supply of housing policy has not been able to reflect social phenomena as like decreasing birth rate, aging of the population and increasing 1 or 2 person households. This study analyze the housing demand in the city with the point of population growth rate and economic character changes. Growing cities have positive population growth rate and economic character, but shrinking cities have the opposite. By comparing housing demand of growing cities and shrinking cities, we want to find out housing policy implications. In this study, results suggest that the peak age of housing demand of shrinking cities is the late 60's. But the growing cities's age peak is the mid-80's. But further analysis of the economic variables and 1 or 2 person old and young household dummies, the result is that the peak age of housing demand is reduced. These results suggest that housing demand should be differentiated the cities's population structure and economic characteristics of the household. In short, housing demand will vary depending on the condition of individual cities.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.33-45
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• 2019

Due to the global low growth trend, urban shrinkage is a major issue of urban policy in major industrialized countries. According to the research results of the KRIHS(Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, 2016), 23 out of 77 cities in Korea were diagnosed as continuous or temporary shrinking cities. However, the criterion for diagnosing shrinking cities remain on the simple demographic side, and the spatial shrinkage pattern of the city is not considered. Therefore, this study diagnosed urban shrinkage phenomenon considering the characteristics of Yeong-ju, a poly-centric city, by using the population gradient curve, which is one of the urban spatial structure analysis methods. As a result of the diagnosis, Yeong-ju turned out to be a shrinking city with the population density and the slope of population density increasing. In the case of area of Dong, a sprawl phenomenon in which the population density of the CBD and the slope of the population density were decreased was shown. And in the case of Punggi-eup, a simple shrinkage phenomenon in which only the population density of the CBD was decreased was shown. The results show that even within a city, the pattern of spatial change can be different for each centers. In the case of a city with a poly-centric structure, the implications for the individual diagnosis of not only the entire city but also the detailed area were drawn.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.91-106
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• 2024

Around the world, many countries experiencing the issue of shrinking cities are continually expanding high-speed rail networks to enhance regional accessibility and address imbalances. This study analyzed the effects of high-speed train operations on the age-specific population migration in South Korean municipalities from 2012 to 2019, taking into account the risk levels of shrinking cities. For this purpose, an analysis was conducted using age-specific net in-migration population as the dependent variable, employing the spatial panel autoregressive model. The research results indicated that the influence of high-speed rail on regional population inflow varies depending on the risk level of shrinking city. In other words, high-speed railway operations had positive effects on population inflow in the capital areas and some major cities, while explained population outflow in the other regions. High-speed railways particularly exerted a significant impact on the inflow of the young and middle-aged population, representing the working age, but this effect was also limited to regions with a low risk of shrinkage. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of considering planned population and industrial attraction when installing high-speed rail with the goal of achieving regional balanced development and mitigating shrinkage. The results of this study also suggest the need for subsequent research to explore factors that positively influence population structure and inflow based on the level of shrinkage risk in each region, as well as the introduction of new policies tailored to the specific situations of each local government.

• Journal of People, Plants, and Environment
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.387-398
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• 2020

Background and objective: Land vacancy is a persistent issue in most urban areas in the United States, yet few case studies have examined how vacant lots are used and the functions they serve in local communities. The purposes of this study were to provide a new revitalization planning and design proposal for the Durant-Tuuri-Mott (DTM) target area in the shrinking city of Flint, MI, USA, and to assess the final planning and design guideline through an analysis of vacant land redevelopment alternatives. Methods: For developing a revitalization planning and design guideline, this study developed several design modules with three main design themes. Then, landscape performance of the final design proposals was analyzed by three development scenarios, based on implementation level: 100%, 75%, and 50%. These development scenarios were based on the local context and different implementation budgets needed to adopt the proposed design modules. To generate a comprehensive development plan by optimizing design module allocation in the study area, this research employed a system-oriented approach, analyzing the existing cultural, natural, and built environments. A community participant process was adopted to collect stakeholders' opinions on future development. Results: By utilizing landscape performance metrics to quantify the environmental, social, and economic benefits, this study developed optimized development scenarios and a master plan for the reuse and redevelopment of existing vacant lots across DTM neighborhoods and analyzed the benefits of each. Conclusion: This research offers a flexible design method for balancing objectives in vacant land redevelopment that can be applied in other shrinking cities.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.135-144
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• 2022

This paper aimed to analyze the type of urban shrinkage over the past 20 years for four case cities designated as abandoned mining area promotion zones and present the direction of future urban spatial policies through the analysis of shrinking status. According to the analysis of urban shrinkage in the past 20 years, all of the case cities were analyzed as fixed-type shrinking cities, showing a population decrease of more than 30% over the past 40 years compared to the peak population. Despite the decrease in population, the designated area of urbanization and non-urban areas is increasing every year, and the development permit and construction permit in non-urban areas are also increasing, requiring efficient management and operation of urban space. It is necessary to study military-level cities in the high-risk phase of extinction in the future, and to develop various indicators for segmentation of urban shrinkage types and analysis of status by type.

• Journal of Korea Planning Association
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• v.53 no.7
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• pp.5-22
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• 2018

While the competitiveness of small and medium sized cities has become important for balanced development at the national scale, they have experienced continuous decline in population and employment, particularly those in non-capital regions. In addition, some of small and medium sized cities have been classified into shrinking cities that have declined due to their long-term structural reasons. To address these issues, a regional approach, by which a hub city and its surrounding small and medium sized cities can collaborate has been suggested. Given this background, the purpose of this study is to identify and delineate hub cities and their impact areas by using travel data as a functional network index. This study uses a centrality index to identify the hub cities of small and medium sized cities and Markov-chain model and cluster analysis to delineate regional boundaries. The mean first passage time (MFPT) generated from the Markov-chain model can be interpreted as functional distance of each region. The study suggests a methodological approach delineating the boundaries of regions incorporating functional relationships of hub cities and their impact areas, and provides 59 hub cities and their impact areas. The results also provide policy implications for regional spatial planning that addresses appropriate planning boundaries of regions for enhancing the economic competitiveness of small and medium sized cities and ensuring services for shrinking cities.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.135-145
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• 2020

This paper provides the practical application of a linear shrinkage framework on Vietnam stock market. The cumulative data points observed in this analysis are 468 weeks from January 2011 to December 2019. All the companies listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), except the companies under two years period from Initial Public Offering (IPO), are considered. The cumulative number of stocks picked is therefore 350 companies. The VNINDEX, which is the Vietnam Stock Index, is used as a reference index for shrinking to a single-index model. The empirical results show that the shrinkage of covariance matrix for portfolio optimization gives the promising results for the investors on Vietnam stock market. The shrinkage method helps the investors to produce the optimal portfolio in the sense of having higher profit with lower levels of risk compared to the portfolio of the traditional SCM method. Moreover, the portfolio turnover of shrinkage method is always kept at low magnitudes, and this makes the shrinkage portfolios save much transaction costs and reduce the liquidity risks in the trading process. In addition, the ability of shrinkage method in making profit is once again confirmed by the Alpha coefficient that achieves a high positive value.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.51-66
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• 2016

This study examines a degree of city decline and confirms a existence of inertia in the city decline process, and shows how to set the policy directions of cities as its situation. With understanding these things, we are carefully able to anticipate the future direction of cities'growth or decline. This study analyzes cross-tabulations with the comprehensive decline index, and the demographic-social index, industrial-economical index, physical-environmental index to compose the comprehensive decline index in during 2005~2010. We can confirm the existence of complexity and inertia of city decline. Some cities are likely to have adhesion of decline, and these cities should convert planning tools and concept of past growth era to new one to be used in changed environment in new era. Redefining a perspective for city decline, proper managing a change of physical environment from city decline, and flexible thinking would be requested as countermeasures with adjusting spatial policy framework.