• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.661-669
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• 2018

Engineering system problems consist of multi-objective optimisation and the performance analysis is generally time consuming. To optimise the system concerning its performance, many researchers perform the optimisation using an approximation model. The Response Surface Method (RSM) is usually used to predict the system performance in many research fields, but it shows prediction errors for highly nonlinear problems. To create an appropriate metamodel for marine systems, Lee (2015) compares the prediction accuracy of the approximation model, and multi-objective optimal design framework is proposed based on a confirmed approximation model. The proposed framework is composed of three parts: definition of geometry, generation of approximation model, and optimisation. The major objective of this paper is to confirm the applicability/usability of the proposed optimal design framework and evaluate the prediction accuracy based on sensitivity analysis. We have evaluated the proposed framework applicability in derrick structure optimisation considering its structural performance.

• 대한용접접합학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한용접접합학회 2004년도 추계학술발표대회 개요집
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• pp.278-279
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• 2004

• 한국생산제조학회지
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.40-46
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• 2000

This study predicts the modified structural eigenvector and eigenvalue due to the change in the mass and stiffness of 2-dimesional continuous system by iterative calculation of the sensitivity coefficient using the original dynamic characteristic. The method is applied to examples of a crank shaft by modifing the mass and stiffness. The predicted dynamics characteristics are in good agreement with these from the structural analysis using the modified mass and stiffness. The predicted dynamic characteristics are in good agreement with these from the structural analysis using the modified mass and stiffness.

• 융합신호처리학회논문지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.190-197
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• 2004

본 연구는 신경망에 근거한 패턴매칭 방법을 사용하여 일시적 허혈 에피소드의 자동예측을 다루고 있다. 다층 신경망을 학습하기 위한 알고리즘은 수정된 역전파 알고리즘으로서 이 알고리즘은 학습속도를 향상시키기 위해 뉴런간의 연결계수 뿐만 아니라 뉴런내 비선형 함수의 변수들도 갱신한다. 제안된 방법의 성능은 MIT/BIH long-term 데이터베이스의 심전도(ECG) 신호를 사용하여 평가하였다. 총 15 레코드(237 허혈 에피소드)에 대한 실험결과에 의하면 허혈 에피소드 예측의 평균 sensitivity와 specificity 각각 85.71%와 71.11%이다. 또한 제안된 방법은 실제 허혈 에피소드로부터 평균 45.53초 이전에 예측하였다. 이러한 결과는 패턴매칭 분류기로서의 신경망 접근방법이 일시적 허혈 에피소드예측에 유용한 도구로 사용될 수 있음을 의미한다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.179-192
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• 2021

In this study, an integrated wave model from global to coastal scales was developed to improve the operational wave prediction performance of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). In this system, the wave model was upgraded to the WaveWatch III version 6.07 with the improved parameterization of the source term. Considering the increased resolution of the wind input field and the introduction of the high-performance KMA 5^th Supercomputer, the spatial resolution of global and regional wave models has been doubled compared to the operational model. The physical processes and coefficients of the wave model were optimized for the current KMA global atmospheric forecasting system, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), which is being operated since April 2020. Based on the sensitivity experiment results, the wind-wave growth parameter (β_max) for the global wave model was determined to be 1.33 with the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE). The value of β_max showed the lowest error when applied to regional/coastal wave models for the period of the typhoon season when strong winds occur. Applying the new system to the case of August 2020, the RMSE for the 48-hour significant wave height prediction was reduced by 13.4 to 17.7% compared to the existing KMA operating model. The new integrated wave prediction system plans to replace the KMA operating model after long-term verification.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제51권3호
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• pp.280-293
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• 2021

Purpose: This study aimed to identify the risk factors for diabetic foot ulceration (DFU) to develop and evaluate the performance of a DFU prediction model and nomogram among people with diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods: This unmatched case-control study was conducted with 379 adult patients (118 patients with DM and 261 controls) from four general hospitals in South Korea. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire, foot examination, and review of patients' electronic health records. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to build the DFU prediction model and nomogram. Further, their performance was analyzed using the Lemeshow-Hosmer test, concordance statistic (C-statistic), and sensitivity/specificity analyses in training and test samples. Results: The prediction model was based on risk factors including previous foot ulcer or amputation, peripheral vascular disease, peripheral neuropathy, current smoking, and chronic kidney disease. The calibration of the DFU nomogram was appropriate (χ² = 5.85, p = .321). The C-statistic of the DFU nomogram was .95 (95% confidence interval .93~.97) for both the training and test samples. For clinical usefulness, the sensitivity and specificity obtained were 88.5% and 85.7%, respectively at 110 points in the training sample. The performance of the nomogram was better in male patients or those having DM for more than 10 years. Conclusion: The nomogram of the DFU prediction model shows good performance, and is thereby recommended for monitoring the risk of DFU and preventing the occurrence of DFU in people with DM.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.72-80
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• 2016

The market size of plant projects in overseas is so large that domestic EPC project contractors are actively seeking the overseas projects and then trying to meet completion plans since successful fulfillment of these projects can provide great opportunities for them to expand into new foreign markets. International EPC projects involve all of the uncertainties common to domestic projects as well as uncertainties specific to foreign projects including marine transportation, customs, regulations, nationality, culture and so on. When overseas project gets off-schedule, the resulting uncertainty may trigger unexpected exceptions and then critical effects to the project performance. It usually require much more time and costs to encounter these exceptions in foreign sites compared to domestic project sites. Therefore, an exception handling approach is required to manage exceptions effectively for successful project progress in foreign project sites. In this research, we proposed a methodology for prediction and evaluation of exceptions caused by risks in international EPC projects based on sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Networks. First, we identified project schedule risks and related exceptions, which may meet during the fulfillment of foreign EPC projects that is performed in a sequence of engineering, procurement, preparatory manufacture, foreign shipping, construction, inspection and modification activities, and affect project performance, using literature review and expert interviews. The impact of exceptions to the schedule delay were also identified. Second, we proposed a methodology to predict the occurrence of exceptions caused by project risks and evaluate them. Using sensitivity analysis, we can identify activities that critically affect schedule delay and need to focus by priority. Then, we use Bayesian Networks to predict and evaluate exceptions. Third, we applied the proposed methodology to an international EPC project example to validate the proposed approach. Finally, we concluded the research with the further research topics. We expect that the proposed approach can be extended to apply in exception management in project management.

• The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.41-46
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• 2007

Purpose: This study was to investigate how dose the radiography findings are to magnetic resonance (MR) image findings in the L5-S1 instability patients. The subjects of this study were comprised of eleven males and fifteen females, who had Lumbago and agreed with this research. Methods: Radiography and MR images of Lumbar spine were acquired respectively from subjects in conditions of maximum flexion and extension. The horizontal and angular displacements in lumabosacral spine radiography were used to assess the instability of lumbar spine. MR images were also used to evaluate the intervertebral disc abnormalities and change of bone marrow. Results: The results are as follows. 1. In the case of flexion transitional displacement proposed by Dupuis et al, the specificity and negative predictive value were good accuracy ($0.7{\sim}0.8$), and the negative predictive value was in average. In the case of extension displacement, the negative predictive value was about average ($0.6{\sim}0.7$), but the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were below the poor (<0.6). On the other side, the specificity was about average but other things were below in the case of angular displacement. 2. In the case of flexion transitional displacement proposed by Dupuis et al., compared with the intervertebral disc abnormalities, the negative prediction value was excellent, the sensitivity good, and the specificity about average. In the case of extension, the negative prediction value was about average, but the other things were poor. On the other side the specificity and negative predictive value had good accuracy and the sensitivity and positive prediction value were below average in the case of angular displacement. Conclusion: The above results show that the radiography finding is sufficiently helpful to find the lumbar spine instability as an economic point of view.

• 소음진동
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.163-173
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• 1999

Precise and reasonable modelling is necessary and indispensable to the analysis of dynamic characteristics of mechanical structures. Also. the effective prediction of the change of modal properties due to the variation of design parameters is required especially for the application of finite element method to the structural dynamics problems. To meet those necessity and requirement, three model updating algorithms are proposed for finite element methods. Those algorithms are based on sensitivity analysis of the modal data obtained from experimental modal analysis(EMA) and analytical modal analysis(AMA). The adapted sensitivity analysis methods of the algorithms are 1)eigensensitivity(EGNS) method. 2)frequency response function sensitivity(FRFS) method. 3)sensitivity based element-by-element method (SBEEM), Singular value decomposition(SVD) is used for performing eigenanalysis and parameter estimation in the updating process. Those algorithms are applied to finite element of a plate and the updating capability of each algorithm is compared in terms of accuracy. reliability and stability of the updating process. It is shown that the model updating method using frequency response function is superior to the other methods in view of various updating capabilities.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제20권8호
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• pp.11-17
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• 2021

This paper describes the time rate of change of dynamic response of a cantilever beam inserted with a damping element, such as bonding, which is excited under a general force at various locations. A sensitivity analysis was performed in a finite element model to show that two types of second-order algebraic governing equations were used to predict the rate of change of dynamic displacement: one is related to the modal coordinate linked to a physical coordinate, and the other to the design parameter of the time rate of change of displacement. The sensitivity differential equation formulation includes more complicated terms compared with that of the undamped cantilever beam. The sensitivities of the dynamic response were observed by changing the location of the excitation force, displacement extraction, and cross-sectional area of the beam. The analytical results obtained by this suggested theory showed a relatively good agreement when compared with those obtained using the commercial finite element program. The suggested analysis procedure enables the prediction of the response sensitivity for any finite element model of the dynamic system.