• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.127-145
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• 2013

This study estimates the economic impact of sea-level rise on Jeju island and suggests the optimal protection level based on the FUND model. There exist a number of studies that estimate the impacts of sea-level rise on global scale, but their results are of limited use for local scale such as Korea. Therefore, this study applies some specific indicators and data of Korea into to FUND model for deriving site specific estimates. The results show that 2.01%~2.25% of land could be inundated by sea-level rise until 2100. The value of affected land is about 6.4%~7.2% of total land value. The discrepancy between the figures indicates that the area affected by sea-level rise is much more valuable than the rest of Jeju island. The optimal protection level in Jeju city is higher than that in Seguipo city, even though the coastal length of Jeju city is longer than that of Seguipo. This is due to the fact that the economic value of Jeju city is much higher than that of Seoguipo city.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.6
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• pp.387-395
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• 2017

Sea level rise, accompanied by climate change, is expected to exacerbate seawater intrusion in the coastal groundwater system. As the salinity of saturated groundwater increases, salinity can increase even in the unsaturated soil above the groundwater surface, which may cause crop damage in the agricultural land. The other adverse impact of sea level rise is reduced unsaturated soil thicknesses. In this study, a composite model to assess impacts of sea level rise in coastal agricultural land is proposed. The composite model is based on the combined applications of a three dimensional model for simulating saltwater intrusion into the groundwater and a vertical one dimensional model for simulating unsaturated zone flow and transport. The water level and salinity distribution of groundwater are calculated using the three dimensional seawater intrusion model. At some uppermost nodes, where salinity are higher than the reference value, of the 3D mesh one dimensional unsaturated zone modeling is conducted along the soil layer between the ground water surface and the ground surface. A particular location is judged salinized when the concentration at the root-zone depth exceeds the tolerable salinity for ordinary crops. The developed model is applied to a hypothetical agricultural reclamation land. IPCC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as sea level rise data. Results are presented for 2050 and 2100. As a result of the study, it is predicted that by 2100 in the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, there will be 7.8% increase in groundwater saltwater-intruded area, 6.0% increase of salinized soil area, and 1.6% in increase in water-logging area.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2018

Previous studies have indicated a great regional difference in Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the Pacific and it has been suggested that this is linked to climate variability over the past two decades. In this study, we seek to identify the possible linkage between regional sea level and Pacific climate variability from altimetry-based sea level data (1993-2012) and further investigate how the Pacific sea level has changed spatially and temporally over the past 60 years from long-term sea level reconstruction data (1953-2008). Based on the same method as Zhang and Church (2012), the Inter-annual Climate Index (ICI) associated with the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o-Southern$ Oscillation (ENSO) and the Decadal Climate Index (DCI) associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are defined and then the multiple variable linear regression is used to analyze quantitatively the impact of inter-annual and decadal climate variability on the regional sea levels in the Pacific. During the altimeter period, the ICI that represents ENSO influence on inter-annual time scales strongly impacts in a striking east-west "see-saw mode" on sea levels across the tropical Pacific. On the other hand, the decadal sea level pattern that is linked to the DCI has a broad meridional structure that is roughly symmetric in the equator with its North Pacific expression being similar to the PDO, which largely contributes to a positive SLR trend in the western Pacific and a negative trend in the eastern Pacific over the two most recent decades. Using long-term sea level reconstruction data, we found that the Pacific sea levels have fluctuated in the past over inter-annual and decadal time scales and that strong regional differences are presented. Of particular interest is that the SLR reveals a decadal shift and presents an opposite trend before and after the mid-1980s; i.e., a declining (rising) trend in the western (eastern) Pacific before the mid-1980s, followed by a rising (declining) trend from the mid-1980s onward in the western (eastern) Pacific. This result indicates that the recent SLR patterns revealed from the altimeters have been persistent at least since the mid-1980s.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.92-104
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• 2015

In order to analyze the impacts of climate change, a time and space integrated model was developed in this study using system dynamics and GIS. The model built was used to carry out a simulation on the inundation impact on A-gu of Busan Metropolitan city resulting from the sea level rise scenario of IPCC and storm surge, which is the worst case. Through this, the flooded area and population until 2100 were predicted. Also, the result and significance of each alternative was reviewed improving the model by establishing alternative scenarios of protection, accommodation and retreat as plans of reaction to sea level rise. The combination of system dynamics and GIS has advantages of how the diverse variables change until the target year can be traced and, accordingly, not only the results but also the processes of spatial change can be examined by calculating the value of change process at each time step. The synergy of this model presumed to be a foothold for solving problems which are becoming difficult to predict due to increase in uncertainty and complexity such as the support for decision making for urban resilience to natural disasters.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.171-180
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• 2017

The vulnerability analysis of climate change driven disaster has been used as institutional framework for the urban policies of disaster prevention since 2012. However, some problems have occurred due to the structure of vulnerability analysis, such as overweighted variables and duplicated application of variables of similar meaning. The goal of this study is to examine the differences of results between the method of current guideline and the method of weight equalization. For this, we examines the current structural framework of the vulnerability analysis, and performs empirical analysis. As a result, the extent and magnitude of vulnerability showed different spatial patterns depending on the weighting methods. Standardized weighting method relatively represented wider vulnerable areas compared to the pre-existing method which follows the current instruction manual. To apply the results of vulnerability analysis to urban planning process for disaster prevention, this study suggests that the reliability of the results should be ensured by improving analytical framework and detailed review of the results.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.121-133
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• 2019

Natural variability associated with a variety of large-scale climate modes causes regional differences in sea level rise (SLR), which is particularly remarkable in the Pacific Ocean. Because the superposition of the natural variability and the background anthropogenic trend in sea level can potentially threaten to inundate low-lying and heavily populated coastal regions, it is important to quantify sea level variability associated with internal climate variability and understand their interaction when projecting future SLR impacts. This study seeks to identify the dominant modes of sea level variability in the tropical Pacific and quantify how these modes contribute to regional sea level changes, particularly on the two strong El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ events that occurred in the winter of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. To do so, an adaptive data analysis approach, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), was undertaken with regard to two datasets of altimetry-based and in situ-based steric sea levels. Using this EEMD analysis, we identified distinct internal modes associated with El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varying from 1.5 to 7 years and low-frequency variability with a period of ~12 years that were clearly distinct from the secular trend. The ENSO-scale frequencies strongly impact on an east-west dipole of sea levels across the tropical Pacific, while the low-frequency (i.e., decadal) mode is predominant in the North Pacific with a horseshoe shape connecting tropical and extratropical sea levels. Of particular interest is that the low-frequency mode resulted in different responses in regional SLR to ENSO events. The low-frequency mode contributed to a sharp increase (decrease) of sea level in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific in the 2015/2016 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ but made a negative contribution to the sea level signals in the 1997/1998 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. This indicates that the SLR signals of the ENSO can be amplified or depressed at times of transition in the low-frequency mode in the tropical Pacific.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.201-211
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• 2008

According to IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. Moreover, in the recent 25 years, global mean temperatures have risen by 0.45 degrees Celsius, which is 2.4-times larger than those in the past 100 years. The evidences for climate change, such as sea level rise, arctic glacier melt, and desertification in Asia, have occurred and increased over the globe. In Korea, because regional climate has been changed, types of agriculture and fishery should be replaced. And as precipitation pattern behave differently from the past decades, water management would be more difficult, furthermore, atmospheric environment, related to concentrations for ozone, sulfate, etc., could be worse. Nevertheless, we have only focused on greenhouse gas reduction duty for the Convention of Climate Change. Fortunately, in the fourth plan on climate change, we have planned to manage climate change more actively since 2007. In Korea, the emission of carbon dioxide has increased about 1.9-times more, from 311million ton in 1990 to 591million ton in 2004. And also about 2 ppm rise every year for concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As a result, ecosystem, quality of water and atmosphere would be affected. Here, the emission of greenhouse gases over the globe is examined, and the effect of greenhouse gases for climate change is reviewed from the results of previous studies. In addition, the countermeasures of mitigation and adaptation on climate change were discussed for the understanding.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.249-256
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• 2011

Causing by green house gas emission, global warming is being accelerated significantly. This global warming cause world climate to change quiet different than before and we call this phenomenon is Climate Change. Environmental Impact Assessment being implemented in Korea is to prevent predicted environmental impacts from deteriorating within the domestic information and situation. As the climate change is getting severe, new meteorological records can be occurred which is exceeded existing statistical data. According to KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) data, maximum value of precipitation and temperature in many regions changed with new data within last decade. And these events accompanied with landslides and flooding, and these also affected on water quality in rivers and lakes. According to impacts by climate change, disasters and accidents from heavy rain are the most apprehensive parts. And water pollution caused by overflowed non-point sources during heavy rain fall, fugitive dust caused by long-term drought, and sea level rise and Tsunami may affect on seaside industrial complex should be worth consideration. In this review, necessity of mutual consideration with influences of climate change was considered adding on existing guideline.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2007.12a
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• pp.141-142
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• 2007

In recent years, the rate of mean sea level rise is increasing rapidly from the phenomena of global warming, together with the increasing trend of the storm scale. The issue of sea level rise is multifaceted and produces a range of environmental problems. Especially, high tides and the tidal currents become higher, and wave base increases, so the energy received at the coastal boundary may increase. This brings that many coastal environments go into disequilibrium, such as damages to the structures, erosion, and deposition Similarly it was known that the problems of nearshore processes and damage of berth and counter facilities during storm period had appeared at the small fishery port. Here we try to analyze the impact of the rearrangement of counter facilities and berth layout adopted for tranquility of its'inner harbor. Because this harbor is being connected to channel and open sea, the rearrangement of the structures might affect to the current speed and direction and wave height, so do to the sea bottom undulation. Therefore, we made model test for the several layouts of the berth and breakwater in this area.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.185-205
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• 2010

Climate change vulnerability assessment based on local conditions is a prerequisite for establishment of climate change adaptation policies. While some studies have developed a methodology for vulnerability assessment at the national level using statistical data, few attempts, whether domestic or overseas, have been made to develop methods for local vulnerability assessments that are easily applicable to a single city. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for climate change vulnerability, and then develop a general methodology for assessment at the regional level applied to a single coastal city, Mokpo, in Jeolla province, Korea. We followed the conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability proposed by the IPCC (1996) which consists of "climate exposure," "systemic sensitivity," and "systemic adaptive capacity." "Climate exposure" was designated as sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 meter(s), allowing for a simple scenario for sea level rises. Should more complex forecasts of sea level rises be required later, the methodology developed herein can be easily scaled and transferred to other projects. Mokpo was chosen as a seaside city on the southwest coast of Korea, where all cities have experienced rising sea levels. Mokpo has experienced the largest sea level increases of all, and is a region where abnormal high tide events have become a significant threat; especially subsequent to the construction of an estuary dam and breakwaters. Sensitivity to sea level rises was measured by the percentage of flooded area for each administrative region within Mokpo evaluated via simulations using GIS techniques. Population density, particularly that of senior citizens, was also factored in. Adaptive capacity was considered from both the "hardware" and "software" aspects. "Hardware" adaptive capacity was incorporated by considering the presence (or lack thereof) of breakwaters and seawalls, as well as their height. "Software" adaptive capacity was measured using a survey method. The survey questionnaire included economic status, awareness of climate change impact and adaptation, governance, and policy, and was distributed to 75 governmental officials working for Mokpo. Vulnerability to sea level rises was assessed by subtracting adaptive capacity from the sensitivity index. Application of the methodology to Mokpo indicated vulnerability was high for seven out of 20 administrative districts. The results of our methodology provides significant policy implications for the development of climate change adaptation policy as follows: 1) regions with high priority for climate change adaptation measures can be selected through a correlation diagram between vulnerabilities and records of previous flood damage, and 2) after review of existing short, mid, and long-term plans or projects in high priority areas, appropriate adaptation measures can be taken as per this study. Future studies should focus on expanding analysis of climate change exposure from sea level rises to other adverse climate related events, including heat waves, torrential rain, and drought etc.