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Analysis on Inundation Impacts of Sea Level Rise Using System Dynamics-GIS Model

System Dynamics-GIS 모델을 이용한 해수면 상승 침수 영향 분석

  • KIM, Ji-Sook (Interdisciplinary Program of Geographic Information System, Pusan National University) ;
  • KIM, Ho-Yong (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Dong-A University) ;
  • LEE, Sung-Ho (Department of Urban Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • 김지숙 (부산대학교 공간정보협동과정) ;
  • 김호용 (동아대학교 도시계획공학과) ;
  • 이성호 (부산대학교 도시공학과)
  • Received : 2014.04.19
  • Accepted : 2015.06.08
  • Published : 2015.06.30

Abstract

In order to analyze the impacts of climate change, a time and space integrated model was developed in this study using system dynamics and GIS. The model built was used to carry out a simulation on the inundation impact on A-gu of Busan Metropolitan city resulting from the sea level rise scenario of IPCC and storm surge, which is the worst case. Through this, the flooded area and population until 2100 were predicted. Also, the result and significance of each alternative was reviewed improving the model by establishing alternative scenarios of protection, accommodation and retreat as plans of reaction to sea level rise. The combination of system dynamics and GIS has advantages of how the diverse variables change until the target year can be traced and, accordingly, not only the results but also the processes of spatial change can be examined by calculating the value of change process at each time step. The synergy of this model presumed to be a foothold for solving problems which are becoming difficult to predict due to increase in uncertainty and complexity such as the support for decision making for urban resilience to natural disasters.

본 연구는 기후변화로 인한 영향을 분석하기 위해 시간 흐름에 따른 변수들의 상호작용 및 동태적 변화를 모델링할 수 있는 SD와 공간적 변이를 나타내고 분석할 수 있는 GIS를 통합하여 시공간 통합모델을 구축하였다. 구축된 모델을 이용하여 부산광역시의 해안가에 위치한 A구에 대하여 IPCC의 해수면 상승 시나리오(Case 1) 및 최악의 경우인 태풍 해일고를 고려한(Case 2) 침수영향을 시뮬레이션 하였고, 이를 통해 2100년까지 시간 단위별로 침수에 의한 피해 면적과 인구를 예상하였다. 또한 해수면 상승의 대응 방안으로 방어, 순응, 후퇴 대안의 시나리오를 설정하여 모델을 개선함으로써 각각의 대안으로 인한 결과와 그 의의를 살펴보았다. 두 가지 방법론의 결합으로 구축된 모델은 설정시점별 변수들의 변화 과정을 정량적으로 산출하여 공간적 변이뿐만 아니라 과정까지 분석 가능한 시너지 효과를 확인할 수 있었다. 결과뿐만 아니라 과정까지 분석 가능한 시공간 통합모델은 도시의 방재력 향상을 위한 정책결정과정에 도움이 될 것으로 사료된다.

Keywords

References

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