• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sea Weather

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Long-term Precipitation Prediction with Icosahedral-hexagonal Gridpoint Model GME (Icosahedral-Hexagonal 격자 체계의 전구 모형 GME를 이용한 장기 강수량 예측)

  • Woo, Su-Min;Oh, Jai-Ho;Koh, A-Ra;Majewski, Detlev
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.2207-2211
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    • 2008
  • 한반도 및 동아시아의 여름철은 장마와 태풍으로 인한 집중호우의 발생으로 많은 피해를 입는다. 따라서 여름철에 나타나는 이러한 집중호우가 나타나는 지역, 시기, 기간, 그리고 강수량 등을 예측하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 특히, 효율적인 수자원 관리를 위하여 이러한 예측은 매우 중요한데, 단기적으로 정확하고 신속하게 강수를 예측하는 것도 중요하지만, 장기적으로 계절 강수, 특히 여름철의 장마 또는 우기의 시기와 강수량과 태풍 발생의 시기 등을 미리 예측하여 이에 따른 집중 호우의 발생 지역, 기간, 강수량을 예측하여 사전에 대비하는 것도 매우 중요하다. 특히, 최근에는 6,7월 장마에 의한 집중 호우의 영향보다도 8월에 강수량이 높아지고 있는 경향을 보이므로 강수량의 장기적 경향의 파악이 매우 중요하다. 장기 기후를 예측하는 데는 과거 자료를 이용한 통계 방법도 유용하지만 최근에는 AOGCM (Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Model)을 이용한 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 하지만 강수와 같이 지역적으로 나타나는 현상은 저해상도의 AOGCM으로는 유용한 정보를 제공하기가 어려움이 따른다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 전구를 삼각형으로 된 20면체로 격자화 시켜 모든 격자의 크기가 거의 동일하고, 해상도 조절이 가능한 Geodesic 격자를 활용한 GME 모델을 사용하였다. GME 모델은 icosahedral-hexagonal grid 격자 체계를 가진 독일 기상청(Deutscher Wetterdient)에서 현업으로 사용 중인 모델이다. 본 연구에서는 수직/수평 해상도를 40km/40layers로 하여 GME 모델을 수행하였으며, 일간격의 장기 기후 자료를 생산하였다. 사용된 초기자료로는 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) 자료이며, 경계 자료로는 ERA Climatology의 최근 30년간의 SST (Sea Surface Temperature) 평균 자료를 이용하여 규준 실험(Control Run), 즉, climatology 자료를 생산하였으며, persistent SST 아노말리와 ERA Climatology의 최근 30년간의 SST 자료를 이용하여 내삽 과정을 거친 SST forcing을 주어서 예측 실험(Prediction Run)을 통하여 모의 자료를 생산하였다. 특히, 규준 실험에서는 수치 모델이 가지는 불확실성을 줄이고 예보 정확도를 향상시키기 위하여 각각의 실험은 초기자료를 달리한 앙상블 모의실험을 수행하였다. 장기 모의 3개월을 위하여 모의 기간 1달 전부터 모의를 수행하여, 첫 1달은 모델의 spin-up 시간으로 분석에서 제외 하였다. 생산된 Climatology 자료와 Prediction 자료를 비교하여 아노말리와 Category 분석을 실시하여 한반도 및 동아시아 지역의 강수(Precipitation)를 중심으로 기압장(Pressure), 온도(2m Temperature) 위주로 분석하였다. 이러한 예측된 매 계절의 전망 자료 중에서도 수자원 분야에서 관심이 집중되는 여름철에 초점을 맞추어 실제 관측 자료와 비교하여 GME 모델의 계절 모의 예측성 성능을 분석하여 평가하고 다가올 여름철의 강수량의 장기 변화를 모의하고자 하였다.

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Analysis of Snowfall Development Mechanism over the Korean Peninsula due to Polar Low (극저기압에 의한 한반도 강설 발달기구 분석)

  • Kim, Jinyeon;Min, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.7
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    • pp.645-661
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    • 2013
  • The synoptic, thermodynamic, and dynamic characteristics of a heavy snowfall event that occurred in Seoul metropolitan area on 27 to 28 December 2010 was investigated. During this period there was a distinctive case that was identified as a polar low. We analyzed surface and upper level weather charts, snowfall amount, sea surface temperature, satellite imagery, sounding, and the National Center for Environmental Prediction global $1^{\circ}{\times}1^{\circ}$ reanalysis data. The polar low developed in an area where there was strong baroclinicity in the lower level aided by strong conditional instability due to 925 hPa warm air advection and 700 hPa cold air advection. The development mechanism of polar low is due, in part, to the tropopause folding, which advected stratospheric air increasing potential vorticity in mid-level and inducing cyclonic vorticity and convergence in low-level. Eventually clouds developed and there were snowfall total of 10 cm in Seoul metropolitan area and as much as 20 cm in southern parts of Korea. During the snowfall development, there was a $-45^{\circ}C$ cold core at 500 hPa and shortwave maintained $3-5^{\circ}$ separation with surface trough, which favored the development of polar low located in the warm sector and cyclonic advection area. The height of the dynamical tropopause lowered to 700 hPa during the peak development and increase in potential vorticity allowed strong vertical motion to occur. Overall, there was a close relationship between the development of snowfall and tropopause undulation. The heaviest snowfall occurred east of the tropopause folding where strong cyclonic vorticity, vertical motion, and moisture advection all coincided while the polar low was passing through the Korean peninsula.

Synoptic Climatic Patterns for Winter Extreme Low Temperature Events in the Republic of Korea (우리나라 겨울철 극한저온현상 발생 시 종관 기후 패턴)

  • Choi, Gwangyong;Kim, Junsu
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2015
  • The present study aims to characterize the synoptic climatic patterns of winter extreme low temperature events occurred in different regions of Korea based on daily temperature data observed at 61 weather stations under the supervision of the Korea Meteorological Administation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I data for the recent 40 years (1973~2012) period. Analyses of daily maximum and minimum temperatures below 10th percentile thresholds show that high frequencies of winter extreme low temperature events appear across the entire regions of Korea or in either the western or eastern half region divided by major mountain ridges at the 2~7 dayintervals particularly in the first half of the winter period (before mid-January). Composite analyses of surface synoptic climatic data including sea level pressure and wind vector reveal that 13 regional types of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea are closely associated with the relative location and intensity of both the Siberian high pressure and the Aleutian low pressure systems as well as major mountain ridges. Investigations of mid-troposphere (500 hPa) synoptic climatic charts demonstrate that the blocking-like upper troposphere low pressure system advecting the cold air from the Arctic toward the Korean Peninsula may provide favorable synoptic conditions for the outbreaks of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea. These results indicate that the monitoring of synoptic scale climatic systems in East Asia including the Siberian high pressure system, the Aleutian low pressure system and upper level blocking system is critical to the improvement of the predictability of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea.

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Analysis of Scientific Models in the Earth Domain of the 10th Grade Science Textbooks (10학년 과학 교과서 지구 분야에 등장하는 과학적 모델 분석)

  • Oh, Phil-Seok;Jon, Won-Son;Yoo, Jung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to identity scientific models included in the Earth domain of the $10^{th}$ grade science textbooks. Three earth science-related chapters in each of 11 trade books were analyzed. A framework was developed and used to classify a scientific model from three different perspectives: medium of representation, method of representation, and mobility of a model. Results showed that the science textbooks utilized domain-specific models in which the nature of sub-areas of earth science was embedded. That is, the unit of 'Change of the Earth' included many iconic models that represented the inaccessible inner structure of the earth and the movement of the tectonic plates. These were also two-dimensional pictorial and static models. In the chapter of 'Atmosphere and Oceans', symbolic and diagrammatic models were dominant in use, which included weather maps and contour line graphs of sea surface temperature and salinity. The unit of 'Solar System and Galaxies' showed the highly frequent use of iconic and analogical models for the large-scale celestial objects and their movements. Implications for earth science education and relevant research were discussed.

Changes Detection of Ice Dimension in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Sentinel-1 Image Classification (Sentinel-1 위성의 영상 분류 기법을 이용한 백두산 천지의 얼음 면적 변화 탐지)

  • Park, Sungjae;Eom, Jinah;Ko, Bokyun;Park, Jeong-Won;Lee, Chang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2020
  • Cheonji, the largest caldera lake in Asia, is located at the summit of Baekdu Mountain. Cheonji is covered with snow and ice for about six months of the year due to its high altitude and its surrounding environment. Since most of the sources of water are from groundwater, the water temperature is closely related to the volcanic activity. However, in the 2000s, many volcanic activities have been monitored on the mountain. In this study, we analyzed the dimension of ice produced during winter in Baekdu Mountain using Sentinel-1 satellite image data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA). In order to calculate the dimension of ice from the backscatter image of the Sentinel-1 satellite, 20 Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) layers were generated from two polarization images using texture analysis. The method used in calculating the area was utilized with the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to classify the GLCM layer which is to calculate the dimension of ice in the image. Also, the calculated area was correlated with temperature data obtained from Samjiyeon weather station. This study could be used as a basis for suggesting an alternative to the new method of calculating the area of ice before using a long-term time series analysis on a full scale.

Application of Objective Mapping to Surface Currents Observed by HF Radar off the Keum River Estuary (금강하구 연안에서 고주파 레이더로 관측된 표층해류에 대한 객관적 유속산출 적용)

  • Hwang, Jin-A;Lee, Sang-Ho;Choi, Byung-Joo;Kim, Chang-Soo
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.14-26
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    • 2011
  • Surface currents were observed by high-frequency (HF) radars off the Keum River estuary from December 2008 to February 2009. The dataset of observed surface currents had data gaps due to the interference of electromagnetic waves and the deteriorating weather conditions. To fill the data gaps an optimal interpolation procedure was developed. The characteristics of spatial correlation in the surface currents off the Keum River estuary were investigated and the spatial data gaps were filled using the optimal interpolation. Then, the temporal and spatial distribution of the interpolated surface currents and the patterns of interpolation error were examined. The correlation coefficients between the surface currents in the coastal region were higher than 0.7 because tidal currents dominate the surface circulation. The sample data covariance matrix (C), spatially averaged covariance matrix with localization ($C^G_{sm}$) and covariance matrix fitted by an exponential function ($C_{ft}$) were used to interpolate the original dataset. The optimal interpolation filled the data gaps and suppressed the spurious data with spikes in the time series of surface current speed so that the variance of the interpolated time series was smaller than that of the original data. When the spatial data coverage was larger (smaller) than 70% of the region, the interpolation error produced by $C^G_{sm}$ ($C_{ft}$) was smaller compared with that by C.

Evaluation of Shanghai New Port Development Plan (중국 상해 신항만 개발계획 평가)

  • Nam, Ki-Chan;Song, Yong-Seok;Yeon, Jeong-Hum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2003
  • China is expected to experience rapid increase in container traffic due to the joining to WTO and the fast economic growth. However, logistics-related infrastructure such as sea port is very poor and the capacity is lagging far behind the demand, resulting in transferring around 70% of import and export cargo volume at ports in adjoining countries such as Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan. Recently, China announced a huge project of developing an offshore port consisting of 52 berths, 30km away from Shanghai with a connecting bridge. As such plan seems to have a significant impact on the port of Pusan which tries to be a Hub port in Far East Asia, we need to scrutinize the plan. This paper, therefore, tries to examine Shanghai New Port Plan, to evaluate the feasibility and potential competitiveness, and to analyze the impact on Pusan port. For this, we review the situation of major container ports in China and the flow pattern of container traffic to and from Pusan port. We then examine the feasibility of the proposed offshore port with respect to demand and supply for container terminal, weather condition, hinterland connection and resource of investment.

Climatological Study of 1994's Summer Droughts in Korea (한국에 있어서 1994년 하계한발의 기후학적 연구)

  • Yang, Jin-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 1996
  • The Korean Peninsula is located on the east coast of monsoon Asia of the midlatitude, where the Pacific polar front moves. As a result variations of spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation occur. A great variation of precipitation during the summer months created frequent droughts and floods. The purpose of this study is to identify distributional characteristics and to analyze synopic characteristics of summer droughts in Korea. The research methods used are ; (1) to identify droughts based on the anomaly of monthly precipitation during summer of 1994. (2) to analyze correlations between drought and weather systems by using the calender of rain days. (3) to compare a synoptic mechanism of summer droughts with that of typical normal summer. The characteristics of summer droughts of 1994 may be summarized as follows ; 1) While most regions were affected by the droughts some regions displayed specific characteristics. The southern part of the Korean Peninsula was severely affected during the month of June. August droughts severely affected east part of the Sobek Mountains, thus showing that the droughts of June and August are highly localized. 2) In the pressure anomaly of surface field. the positive anomaly appears in June around Korean Peninsula, but in July when all parts of the South Korea were under severe droughts, the anomaly changes and becomes negative. 3) Extracyclones occurred less frequently in the summer of 1994. Those that did occur were located in areas far off the Korean Peninsula having little consequences on the drought patterns. 4) The trough of westerly wave at 500hPa height patterns in June is located far from the eastern sea of Korean Peninsula, but in July and August Korean Peninsula belongs to ridge of westerly wave. 5) In June the positive height anomaly at 500hPa surface appears zonally from Siberia to the western Parts of North Pacific Ocean, and in July and August, the strong positive anomaly appears around Korean Peninsula. As a result the zonal index of westerlies at during each month of summer in Korean sector has a large value, which in turn implies that drought will prevails when zonal flow is strong.

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Evaluation of Sejong Base as a Long Term Monitoring Site for Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) Variation in the Antarctic Ocean (남극해 유색 용존 유기물질의 장기 변동성 모니터링을 위한 세종 기지의 활용 가능성 평가)

  • Jeon, Mi-Hae;Park, Mi-Ok;Kang, Sung-Ho;Jeon, Misa
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.898-905
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    • 2019
  • As the positive feedback between the absorption of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and acceleration of ice melt can impact the aquatic biota and dynamic heat budget, long-term monitoring of the CDOM variation in the polar ocean is necessary. However, the monitoring of CDOM is not easy because of harsh weather and difficult access, especially in the Antarctic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to find a suitable long-term monitoring site for CDOM variation; we selected Maxwell Bay and Marian Cove at Sejong Base and horizontal and vertical distributions of CDOM were measured. After a 72 hr time-series measurement test of the CDOM variation at Sejong Dock and Sejong Cape in Maxwell Bay, Sejong Dock was selected, as it does not haveland discharge effects. The seasonal variation of CDOM was evident and the average CDOM concentration of Maxwell Bay was comparable with the adjacent sea. The CDOM at Sejong Dock from February to November 2010 was the highest in the fall and winter and the lowest during spring and summer. Thus, based on our one-year CDOM data, we suggest that Sejong Dock in Maxwell Bay is suitable for long-term monitoring of CDOM as an indicator of photochemical and biological environmental change and an important factor in determining the heating budget in the Antarctic Ocean.

Numerical Analysis of the Hydraulic Characteristics of a Boundary Layer Streaming over Surf-Zone Using LES and Dynamic Smagorinsky Turbulence Model (LES와 Dynamic Smagorinsky 난류모형을 이용한 쇄파역에서의 경계층 Streaming 수치해석)

  • Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 2020
  • Natural shoreline repeats its re-treatment and advance in response to the endlessly varying sea-conditions, and once severely eroded under stormy weather conditions, natural beaches are gradually recovered via a boundary layer streaming when swells are prevailing after storms cease. Our understanding of the boundary layer streaming over surf-zone often falls short despite its great engineering value, and here it should be noted that the most sediments available along the shore are supplied over the surf-zone. In this rationale, numerical simulation was implemented to investigate the hydraulic characteristics of boundary layer streaming over the surf zone in this study. In doing so, comprehensive numerical models made of Spatially filtered Navier-Stokes Eq., LES (Large Eddy Simulation), Dynamic Smagorinsky turbulence closure were used, and the effects of turbulence closure such as Dynamic Smagorinsky in LES and k-ε on the numerically simulated flow field were also investigated. Numerical results show that due to the intrinsic limits of k-ε turbulence model, numerically simulated flow velocity near the bottom based on k-ε model and wall function are over-predicted than the one using Dynamic Smagorinsky in LES. It is also shown that flow velocities near the bottom are faster than the one above the bottom which are relatively free from the presence of the bottom, complying the typical boundary layer streaming by Longuet-Higgins (1957), the spatial scope where boundary layer streaming are occurring is extended well into the surf zone as incoming waves are getting longer. These tendencies are plausible considering that it is the bottom friction that triggers a boundary layer streaming, and longer waves start to feel the bottom much faster than shorter waves.