• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.298-311
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• 1993

Simulation modeling was applied to predict the response of northeast Florida coastal wetlands to futrue sea levl rise due to global warming. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GLS) were used to develop, manipulate, and synthesize input data, including land cover, digital elevation data, and site characteristics data. The SLAMM3 model evaluated this input data to predict responses of coastal wetlands and lowlands to inundation and erosion by sea level rise, and determined transfers from one habitat to another on a cell-by-cell basis. Significant changes were predicted from different scenarios of sea level rise: 0.5m, 1.0m, and 1.25m. The simulations indicated that 31.9 percent and 40.0 percent of wetlands within the study area would be lost with 1.0m and 1.25m sea level rise respectively, and a 6.5 percent loss with 0.5m rise.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.409-418
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• 2013

On the assumption of the rise of sea level, the inundation vulnerabilities on coastal areas of Korea are evaluated in different ways. The propose of this study is to find out the influences of sea level rise caused by global warming at Young-do coastal area, and to suggest the prevention schemes against the flooding damage caused by the sea level rise. The potential rates of sea level rise are assumed and with these rates the inundation vulnerabilities are simulated using CAD program. With the virtual maps, as the results of the previous CAD simulation, this study attempts to suggest the flood prevention schemes for each sector of damage-expected coastal area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.42-48
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• 2008

A system of risk assessment is developed by using the reliability analysis which evaluate quantitatively both stability and performance of sloped-coastal structures according to several scenarios of sea-level rise. By using reliability functions on armor unit and run-up, the probabilities of failure can be straightforwardly calculated with respect to several design parameters such as nominal diameter of armor unit, slope of coastal structure, and freeboard height. By comparing the results before and after sea-level rise, it may be possible to exactly assess some ranges of decrease of stability and performance of sloped-coastal structure with respect to sea-level rise. Therefore, it can also be possible to make a decision which parameters should be repaired or strengthened in order to maintain the original stability and performance of sloped-coastal structures. Finally, The present results may be useful for designing some kinds of new sloped-coastal structures including the effect of sea-level rise.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.367-380
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• 2019

Global warming causes various problems such as the increase of the sea surface temperature, the change of coastlines, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Sea level rise is an especially critical threat to coastal regions where massive population and infrastructure reside. Sea level change is affected by thermal expansion and mass increase. This study projected future sea level changes in the 21st century using the HadGEM2-AO with RCP8.5 scenario. In particular, sea level change due to water mass input from ice-sheets and glaciers melting is studied. Sea level based on surface mass balance of Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.045 m and -0.053 m over the period 1986~2005 to 2081~2100. During the same period, sea level owing to dynamical change on Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.055 m and 0.03 m, respectively. Additionally, glaciers melting results in 0.145 m sea level rise. Although most of the projected sea level changes from HadGEM2-AO are slightly smaller than those from 21 ensemble data of CMIP5, both results are significantly consistent each other within 90% uncertainty range of CMIP5.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.327-333
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• 2005

Sea level (MSL, MHWL, or MLWL) change has been main concern to scientists and engineers and it can be primarily due to both change of climate and vertical movement of land. This paper reports the intensive analysis of the sea level changes and broad discussion of the future at the southwestern coast of Korean peninsula. Regression analysis was conducted to investigate general tendency and periodicity of the sea levels at the six different study sites such as Gunsan-I(inner port), Gunsan-O(outer port), Mokpo, Yeosu, Heuksan and Jeju and the results were compared with global values. Besides the changes of sea levels due to global warming, the influence of the man-made structure such as seadike and seawall was attempted to quantify using the minimization of the Root Mean Square(RMS) error. The results show that it is a general tendency that the values of mean sea level rise at the southwestern coast of Korean Peninsula, especially at Gunsan-I and Jeju, are somewhat larger compared to global average values. There is also some evidence that tidal amplifications are found just after construction of man-made structure at Gunsan-I and Mokpo. However, both sites show different mechanism in relation to tidal choking, tidal flat and river discharge. The impact due to construction of man-made structure is considerably larger at Mokpo site, while the impacts due to man-made structure and the effect of sea level rise are relatively identical at Gunsan-I site. This study is expected to provide some intuition to future design.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.227-234
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• 2007

The present study attempts to provide basic directions to respond to sea-level rise effectively based on the status of sea-level rise and its impact. The impact of the sea-level rise will be one of the most adverse component among climate change due to global warming. The basic approach to deal with sea level rise requires both mitigation and adaptation. Though the emission reduction can reduce a portion of sea level rise, the rising trend cannot be avoided due to the difficulty of the emission reduction and a strong inertia of the ocean. Therefore an effective corresponding direction has to focus on the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. Because sea level rise problem has scientific uncertainty, the corresponding system has to be designed to deal with the processes of information and awareness, planning and design, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation in continuous and long-term process. The future task to correspond effectively to the issue in Korea includes the improvement of scientific information, the development of adaptative measures, the enhancement of people awareness, the consensus of corresponding necessity, and formation of integrated corresponding system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.445-455
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• 2023

Sea level rise due to global warming is accelerating. According to the IPCC survey, the expected sea level rise in 2100 was analyzed to be 47cm in the low-carbon scenario (SSP 1-2.6) and 82cm in the high-carbon scenario (SSP 5-8.5). Sea level rise can cause serious damage to port infrastructure and reduce the safety of ships docked inside ports. In this study, Mokpo Port, which frequently suffers from flooding during high tide, was selected and the sensitivity of mooring evaluation factors was analyzed for actual berthing ships according to sea level rise scenarios. From the analysis, we found that the tension of mooring line, the load of bollard, vertical angle of mooring line, and ship's motion of 6-DOF, which are evaluation factors, generally increased when the sea level increased. The most sensitive evaluation factor was sway motion of 6-DOF. Also, we analyzed that the value of mooring evaluation factors decreased when the crown height was raised. This was beneficial in improving ship and pier safety. The results of this study can be used as basic data to secure measures to improve port and ship safety according to sea level rise in Mokpo Port.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.94-104
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• 2015

Population and urban development along the coast is growing in South Korea, and particularly sea level rise is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal areas. This study aims to investigate the sea level rise through Mann-Kendall(MK) test, ordinary linear regression(OR) and quantile regression analysis(QRA) with sea level data at the 20 tide stations along the coast of Korean Peninsula. First, statistically significant long-term trends were analysed using a non-parametric MK test and the test indicated statistically significant trends for 18 and 10 stations at the 5% significance level in the annual mean value of sea level and the annual maximum value of sea level, respectively. The QRA method showed better performance in terms of characterizing the degree of trend. QRA showed that an average annual rise in mean sea level is about 1-6 mm/year, and an average rise in maximum sea level is about 1-20 mm. It was found that upward convergent and upward divergent were a representative change given the nine-category distributional changes. We expect that in future work we will address nonstationarities with respect to sea level that were identified above, and develop a nonstationary frequency analysis with climate change scenarios.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.304-314
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• 2015

We have reviewed the current status of coastal vulnerability index(CVI) to be guided into an appropriate CVI development for Korean coast and applied a methodology into the east coast of Korea to quantify coastal vulnerability by future sea_level rise. The CVIs reviewed includes USGS CVI, sea_level rise CVI, compound CVI, and multi scale CVI. The USGS CVI, expressed into the external forcing of sea_level rise, wave and tide, and adaptive capacity of morphology, erosion and slope, is adopted here for CVI quantification. The range of CVI is 1.826~22.361 with a mean of 7.085 for present condition and increases into 2.887~30.619 with a mean of 12.361 for the year of 2100(1 m sea_level rise). The index "VERY HIGH" is currently 8.57% of the coast and occupies 35.56% in 2100. The pattern of CVI change by sea_level rise is different to different local areas, and Gangneung, Yangyang and Goseong show the highest increase. The land use pattern in the "VERY HIGH" index is dominated by both human system of housing complex, road, cropland, etc, and natural system of sand, wetland, forestry, etc., which suggests existing land utilization should be reframed in the era of climate change. Though CVI approach is highly efficient to deal with a large set of climate scenarios entailed in climate impact assessment due to uncertainties, we also propose three_level assessment for the application of CVI methodology in the site specific adaptation such as first screening assessment by CVI, second scoping assessment by impact model, and final risk quantification with the result of impact model.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2017.04a
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• pp.214-214
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• 2017