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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Projection of Future Sea Level Change Based on HadGEM2-AO Due to Ice-sheet and Glaciers

HadGEM2-AO 기반의 빙상과 빙하에 의한 미래 해수면 변화 전망

  • 김영미 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 구태영 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 문혜진 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 최준태 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 변영화 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과)
  • Received : 2019.07.02
  • Accepted : 2019.11.06
  • Published : 2019.11.30
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Abstract

Global warming causes various problems such as the increase of the sea surface temperature, the change of coastlines, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Sea level rise is an especially critical threat to coastal regions where massive population and infrastructure reside. Sea level change is affected by thermal expansion and mass increase. This study projected future sea level changes in the 21st century using the HadGEM2-AO with RCP8.5 scenario. In particular, sea level change due to water mass input from ice-sheets and glaciers melting is studied. Sea level based on surface mass balance of Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.045 m and -0.053 m over the period 1986~2005 to 2081~2100. During the same period, sea level owing to dynamical change on Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.055 m and 0.03 m, respectively. Additionally, glaciers melting results in 0.145 m sea level rise. Although most of the projected sea level changes from HadGEM2-AO are slightly smaller than those from 21 ensemble data of CMIP5, both results are significantly consistent each other within 90% uncertainty range of CMIP5.

Keywords

References

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