• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario-based approach

Search Result 294, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Drought risk analysis based on a scenario-neutral approach considering future climate change scenarios: focused on Yongdam Dam basin (미래 기후변화를 고려한 시나리오 중립 접근법 기반 가뭄 위험도 분석: 용담댐 유역을 중심으로)

  • Jiyoung Kim;Jiyoung Yoo;Tae-Woong Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2023.05a
    • /
    • pp.199-199
    • /
    • 2023
  • 최근 기후변화의 영향으로 가뭄, 홍수 등 재해의 발생 빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있다. 미래에는 온실가스 배출량의 증가로 극한 기상현상은 더욱 심화될 전망이다. 이러한 위험에 효율적으로 대비하기 위해 기후변화 시나리오를 고려하여 미래를 전망하는 것은 매우 중요하며, 최근 연구자들은 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 다양한 시나리오를 적용하고 있는 추세이다. 다만, 기후변화 시나리오를 입력자료로 하여 분석을 수행하는 경우, 새로운 기후변화 시나리오가 생성될 때 기존 기후변화 영향 평가는 무의미해지며, 기존 결과의 신뢰도 또한 감소하게 된다. 지금까지 사용된 시나리오 기반 접근법의 한계를 보완하여 시나리오 중립(Scenario Neutral, SN) 접근법이 개발되었고, 이는 다양한 기후변화 시나리오에 대한 시스템의 반응을 평가하는데 유용하다. 본 연구에서는 시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용하여 가뭄 위험도를 분석하였으며, 이를 위해 금강 유역 내 용담댐 유역을 대상으로 분석을 수행하였다. 입력자료로는 용담댐 유역의 1966~2020년 일단위 강수량 자료를 사용하였고, 문헌 조사를 통해 미래 기후변화에 따른 강수량 변화 추이를 파악하였다. 연평균 강수량의 증가와 여름 강수량의 증가를 기준으로 삼아 증가 비율에 따른 노출 공간을 생성했으며, 목표 변화에 따른 교란된 시계열을 도출해냈다. 이후, 각각의 시계열에 대한 이변량 가뭄빈도분석을 수행하여 재현기간을 산정한 뒤, 목표 변화에 따른 위험도를 비교하였다. 그 결과, 연평균 강수량과 여름 강수량이 현재와 유사한 경우 100년 빈도 가뭄이 발생할 확률은 0.84, 연평균 강수량의 증가가 110%, 여름 강수량의 증가가 115%일 경우 100년 빈도 가뭄이 발생할 확률은 0.79이었다. 추후 실제 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 기준치에 따른 만족도를 분석한다면, 가뭄 대응에 유용한 의사결정 도구로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

  • PDF

Decoding Brain States during Auditory Perception by Supervising Unsupervised Learning

  • Porbadnigk, Anne K.;Gornitz, Nico;Kloft, Marius;Muller, Klaus-Robert
    • Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.112-121
    • /
    • 2013
  • The last years have seen a rise of interest in using electroencephalography-based brain computer interfacing methodology for investigating non-medical questions, beyond the purpose of communication and control. One of these novel applications is to examine how signal quality is being processed neurally, which is of particular interest for industry, besides providing neuroscientific insights. As for most behavioral experiments in the neurosciences, the assessment of a given stimulus by a subject is required. Based on an EEG study on speech quality of phonemes, we will first discuss the information contained in the neural correlate of this judgement. Typically, this is done by analyzing the data along behavioral responses/labels. However, participants in such complex experiments often guess at the threshold of perception. This leads to labels that are only partly correct, and oftentimes random, which is a problematic scenario for using supervised learning. Therefore, we propose a novel supervised-unsupervised learning scheme, which aims to differentiate true labels from random ones in a data-driven way. We show that this approach provides a more crisp view of the brain states that experimenters are looking for, besides discovering additional brain states to which the classical analysis is blind.

Performance Analysis of Pursuit- Evasion Game Based Guidance Laws (추적-회피 게임 기반 유도법칙의 성능 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Sam;Tahk, Min-Jea;Ryu, Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.36 no.8
    • /
    • pp.747-752
    • /
    • 2008
  • We propose a guidance law based on pursuit-evasion game solutions, and analyze its performance. The game solutions are obtained from the pursuit-evasion game solver developed by Tahk. The initial value of the game solution is used for guidance, and then the pursuit-evasion game is solved again at the next time step. In this respect, the proposed guidance laws are similar to the approach of model predictive control. The proposed guidance method is compared with proportional navigation guidance for a pursuit-evasion scenario, in which the evader always tries to maximize the capture time. According to the comparison, it has larger a capture set than ones of proportional navigation guidance law.

Design and User Experiences for Wordpress Theme Community Service: Theme Ttack (워드프레스(Wordpress) 테마(Theme) 커뮤니티의 디자인과 사용자 경험에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun Jhin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.17 no.10
    • /
    • pp.452-462
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study proposes community based web service for contents providers and web designers to provide user-centered approach on Wordpress theme search and customizstion process. The contents and structure of theme information is analyzed and online communities on programming and Wordpress are studied to development of community based, theme contents service scenario. As a result, I launched 'Themettack' web service, I took beta testing with 20 users for 2 weeks, and found that theme template image and ideal theme contest services are the most satisfactory experiences. Various community contents which tested in this study and user participation data provided proper directions of Wordpress theme service as open source platform.

Hybrid SDF-HDF Cluster-Based Fusion Scheme for Cooperative Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio Networks

  • El-Saleh, Ayman A.;Ismail, Mahamod;Ali, Mohd Alaudin Mohd;Arka, Israna H.
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.4 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1023-1041
    • /
    • 2010
  • In cognitive radio networks, cooperative spectrum sensing schemes are proposed to improve the performance of detecting licensees by secondary users. Commonly, the cooperative sensing can be realized by means of hard decision fusion (HDF) or soft decision fusion (SDF) schemes. The SDF schemes are superior to the HDF ones in terms of the detection performance whereas the HDF schemes are outperforming the SDF ones when the traffic overhead is taken into account. In this paper, a hybrid SFD-HDF cluster-based approach is developed to jointly exploit the advantages of SFD and HDF schemes. Different SDF schemes have been proposed and compared within a given cluster whereas the OR-rule base HDF scheme is applied to combine the decisions reported by cluster headers to a common receiver or base station. The computer simulations show promising results as the performance of the proposed scenario of hybridizing soft and hard fusion schemes is significantly outperforming other different combinations of conventional SDF and HDF schemes while it noticeably reduces the network traffic overhead.

Password-Based Key Exchange Protocols for Cross-Realm (Cross-Realm 환경에서 패스워드기반 키교환 프로토콜)

  • Lee, Young Sook
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.139-150
    • /
    • 2009
  • Authentication and key exchange are fundamental for establishing secure communication channels over public insecure networks. Password-based protocols for authenticated key exchange are designed to work even when user authentication is done via the use of passwords drawn from a small known set of values. There have been many protocols proposed over the years for password authenticated key exchange in the three-party scenario, in which two clients attempt to establish a secret key interacting with one same authentication server. However, little has been done for password authenticated key exchange in the more general and realistic four-party setting, where two clients trying to establish a secret key are registered with different authentication servers. In fact, the recent protocol by Yeh and Sun seems to be the only password authenticated key exchange protocol in the four-party setting. But, the Yeh-Sun protocol adopts the so called "hybrid model", in which each client needs not only to remember a password shared with the server but also to store and manage the server's public key. In some sense, this hybrid approach obviates the reason for considering password authenticated protocols in the first place; it is difficult for humans to securely manage long cryptographic keys. In this work, we introduce a key agreement protocol and a key distribution protocol, respectively, that requires each client only to remember a password shared with its authentication server.

A Business Ecosystem Approach for E-commerce Service Innovation (온라인 커머스 서비스 혁신을 위한 비즈니스 생태계적 접근)

  • Kwon, Hyeog In;Park, Ju Yeon;Kim, Ju Ho
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-21
    • /
    • 2021
  • At a time when the e-commerce market is experiencing accelerated growth, with advancements in information and communications technology (ICT), the problems of distribution of counterfeit products and consumer confusion caused by non-face-to-face purchases have increased. Hence, amid intensifying competition, it has become important for e-commerce companies deliver product information more efficiently, provide differentiated services, and secure credibility for consumers by reducing consumer damage from buying counterfeit products. However, even though consumer confusion and the inadvertent purchase of counterfeit products are intensifying in such a market scenario, there are no services that aim to solve such problems. This study examines the conventional e-commerce industry in South Korea through a political, economic, social, and technological (PEST) analysis, based on in-depth interviews with consumers, to derive the pain and gain points of the industry. As a result, the inherent problems of the e-commerce industry were revealed. Through a service value network perspective, services aimed at resolving such issues were derived, and the e-commerce business ecosystem needed to solve this problem was deduced. The findings revealed that the artificial intelligence-based service support platform has become a major driving force within the e-commerce innovation ecosystem by enabling a new way to create and secure value using ICT. This entails a new exchange mechanism and transaction architecture and a new organizational structure that breaks the barriers between industries.

A novel Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler for Bayesian model updating using modal data based on dynamic reduction

  • Ayan Das;Raj Purohit Kiran;Sahil Bansal
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.87 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-18
    • /
    • 2023
  • The paper presents a Bayesian Finite element (FE) model updating methodology by utilizing modal data. The dynamic condensation technique is adopted in this work to reduce the full system model to a smaller model version such that the degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the reduced model correspond to the observed DOFs, which facilitates the model updating procedure without any mode-matching. The present work considers both the MPV and the covariance matrix of the modal parameters as the modal data. Besides, the modal data identified from multiple setups is considered for the model updating procedure, keeping in view of the realistic scenario of inability of limited number of sensors to measure the response of all the interested DOFs of a large structure. A relationship is established between the modal data and structural parameters based on the eigensystem equation through the introduction of additional uncertain parameters in the form of modal frequencies and partial mode shapes. A novel sampling strategy known as the Metropolis-within-Gibbs (MWG) sampler is proposed to sample from the posterior Probability Density Function (PDF). The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by considering both simulated and experimental examples.

A Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming Approach towards Optimal Earthmoving Equipment Selection (혼합 정수 비선형 계획법 기반 토공사 최적 장비 선정 방법 제시)

  • Ko, Yong-Ho;Ngov, Kheang;Lee, Su-Min;Shin, Do-Hyoung;Han, Seung-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2023.05a
    • /
    • pp.223-224
    • /
    • 2023
  • Optimal fleet management in the planning stage is one of the most critical activities that guarantee successful construction projects. In South Korea, the construction standard production rate database (CSPRD) is normally employed. However, when it comes to a trade-off problem that involves decision-making on optimal sets of equipment to perform a certain task, the method will require the planners' in-depth knowledge and experience regarding the target process and a time consuming estimation of the performance of every possible scenario must be conducted for the deduction of the optimal fleet management. On this account, this research paper proposes a lightweight method of using mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) in multi-objective problems based on CSPRD-based mathematical equations to assist planners in the preplanning stage of choosing the optimal sets of types and size machinery to efficiently arrange the construction scheduling and budgeting.

  • PDF

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT OVER INDIAN AGRICULTURE - A SPATIAL MODELING APPROACH

  • Priya, Satya;Shibasaki, Ryosuke
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 1999.11a
    • /
    • pp.107-114
    • /
    • 1999
  • The large-scale distribution of crops Is usually determined by climate. We present the results of a climate-crop prediction based on spatial bio-physical process model approach, implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment using several regional and global agriculture-environmental databases. The model utilizes daily climate data like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation being generated stocastically by in-built model weather generator to determine the daily biomass and finally the crop yield. Crops are characterized by their specific growing period requirements, photosynthesis, respiration properties and harvesting index properties. Temperature and radiation during the growing period controls the development of each crop. The model simulates geographic/spatial distribution of climate by which a crop-growing belt can also be determined. The model takes both irrigated and non-irrigated area crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by the technical means like mechanization is not considered. All the management input given at the base year 1995 was kept same for the next twenty-year changes until 2015. The simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current agricultural or specific crop growing regions. Simulation with assumed weather generated derived climate change scenario illustrate changes in the agricultural potential. There are large regional differences in the response across the country. The north-south and east-west regions responded differently with projected climate changes with increased and decreased productivity depending upon the crops and scenarios separately. When water was limiting or facilitating as non-irrigated and irrigated area crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher $CO_2$ levels were different depending on the crops and accordingly their production. Rise in temperature led to yield reduction in case of maize and rice whereas a gain was observed for wheat crop, doubled $CO_2$ concentration enhanced yield for all crops and their several combinations behaved differently with increase or decrease in yields. Finally, with this spatial modeling approach we succeeded in quantifying the crop productivity which may bring regional disparities under the different climatic scenarios where one region may become better off and the other may go worse off.

  • PDF