• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario prediction

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Architecture Design for Disaster Prediction of Urban Railway and Warning System (UR-DPWS) based on IoT (IoT 기반 도시철도 재난 예지 및 경보 시스템 아키텍처 설계)

  • Eung-young Cho;Joong-Yoon Lee;Joo-Yeoun Lee
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2024
  • Currently, the urban railway operating agency is improving the emergency telephone in operation into an IP-based "trackside integrated interface communication facility" that can support a variety of additional services in order to quickly respond to emergency situations within the tunnel. This study is based on this Analyze the needs of various stakeholders regarding the design of a system architecture that establishes an IoT sensor network environment to detect abnormal situations in the tunnel and transmits the collected information to the control center to predict disaster situations in advance, and defines the system requirements. In addition, a scenario model for disaster response was provided through the presentation of a service model. Through this, the perspective of responding to urban railway disasters changes from reactive response to proactive prevention, thereby ensuring safe operation of urban railways and preventing major industrial accidents.

Effect of interprofessional education programs in Healthcare (보건의료계열 다직종 연계 교육프로그램의 효과)

  • Jung Hee Park;Hyun Il Kim;Mi Hyang Lee
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2024
  • This study aimed to develop an Interprofessinal Education(IPE) program for third-year healthcare students to provide patient safety-oriented services and demonstrate professionalism, and to determine the effects of applying the program for five days on patient safety knowledge and patient safety performance confidence. Key topics included understanding job roles by profession, training in patient risk prediction, scenario-based patient experience, and strategies for identifying improvement. As a result of the study, after the application of the IPE program, the patient safety knowledge decreased statistically significantly from 39 points to 37 points(p=.007). The patient safety performance confidence increased statistically significantly from 6.71 pints to 7.50 points(p<.001). In addition, students who experienced clinical practice had higher patient safety knowledge after applying the IPE program, but there was no difference in patient safety performance. Repeated studies are recommended to prove the effectiveness of the IPE program, and specific measures should be taken to expand and continuously manage the IPE program.

Selection of Mitigation Scenarios Based on Prediction of the Dispersion Impact of Ecosystem-Disturbing Plant Species on Ecosystems (생태계교란식물의 확산 영향 예측에 따른 저감대책 시나리오 선정)

  • Lee, Sang-Wook;Kim, Yoon-Ji;Chung, Hye-In;Lee, Ji-Yeon;Yoo, Young-Jae;Lee, Gwan-Gyu;Sung, Hyun-Chan;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2024
  • Ecosystem-disturbing plant species pose a significant threat to native ecosystems due to their high reproductive capacity, making it essential to monitor their distribution and develop effective mitigation strategies. Consequently, it is crucial to enhance the evaluation of the impacts of these species in environmental impact assessments by incorporating scientific evidence alongside qualitative assessments. This study introduces a dispersal model into the species distribution model to simulate the potential spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species, reflecting their ecological characteristics. Additionally, we developed mitigation scenarios and quantitatively calculated reduction rates to propose effective mitigation strategies. The species distribution model showed a reliable AUC (Area Under the Curve) of at least 0.890. The dispersal model's results were also credible, with 31 out of 34 validation coordinates falling within the predicted spread range. Simulating the impact of the spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species over the next five years revealed that one project site had potential habitats for Ambrosia artemisiifolia, necessitating robust mitigation measures such as seed removal. Another project site, with potential habitats for Symphyotrichum pilosum, indicated that physical removal methods within the site were effective due to the species' relatively short dispersal distance. These findings can serve as fundamental data for project executors and reviewers in evaluating the impact of the spread of ecosystem-disturbing plant species during the planning stages of projects.

The Effects of Interprofessional Education Programs for Healthcare Students on Patient Safety Knowledge, Attitudes toward Patient Safety Management and Confidence in Patient Safety Performance (보건의료계열 대상 다직종연계교육프로그램이 환자안전지식, 환자안전관리에 대한 태도 및 환자안전수행 자신감에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung Hee Park;Soo Jeong Hwang;Mi Hyang Lee
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.459-464
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to understand the effects on patient safety knowledge, patient safety performance confidence, and attitude toward patient safety after operating a interprofessional education program for 3 rd and 4 th grade healthcare students with clinical practice experience. We operated a interprofessional education program for 6 days, and the program consisted of job understanding, patient safety risk prediction training, and scenario-based patient safety experience. Patient safety knowledge(t=-5.01, p<.001), patient safety performance confidence(t=-6.75, p<.001), and patient safety attitude(t=-2.59, p=.013) increased statistically significantly after applying the six-day the interprofessional education program. Based on the results of this study, it is necessary to develop programs and evaluate their effectiveness by diversifying educational topics for interprofessional education program. In addition, it is necessary to expand and operate not only for university students but also for new employees working in medical facilities

Characterization of Domestic Well Intrusion Events for the Safety Assessment of the Geological Disposal System (심지층 처분시스템의 안전성평가를 위한 국내 우물침입 발생 특성 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Woo;Cho, Dong-Keun;Ko, Nak-Youl;Jeong, Jongtae
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2015
  • In the safety assessment of the geological disposal system of the radioactive wastes, the abnormal scenarios, in which the system is impacted by the abnormal events, need to be considered in addition to the reference scenario. In this study, characterization and prediction of well intrusion as one of the abnormal events which will impact the disposal system were conducted probabilistically and statistically for the safety assessment. The domestic well development data were analyzed, and the prediction methodologies of the well intrusion were suggested with a computation example. From the results, the annual well development rate per unit area in Korea was about 0.8 well/yr/km2 in the conservative point of view. Considering the area of the overall disposal system which is about 1.5 km2, the annual well development rate within the disposal system could be 1.2 well/yr. That is, it could be expected that more than one well would be installed within the disposal system every year after the institutional management period. From the statistical analysis, the probabilistic distribution of the well depth followed the log-normal distribution with 3.0363 m of mean value and 1.1467 m of standard deviation. This study will be followed by the study about the impacts of the well intrusion on the geological disposal system, and the both studies will contribute to the increased reliability of safety assessment.

Changes in Potential Distribution of Pinus rigida Caused by Climate Changes in Korea (기후변화에 따른 리기다소나무림의 잠재 생육적지 분포 변화 예측)

  • Kim, Yong-Kyung;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Young-Hwan;Oh, Suhyun;Heo, Jun-Hyeok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.3
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2012
  • In this research, it was intended to examine the vulnerability of Pinus rigida to climate changes, a major planting species in Korea. For this purpose, the distribution of Pinus rigida and its changes caused by climate changes were estimated based on the 'A1B' climate change scenario suggested by IPCC. Current distribution of Pinus rigida was analyzed by using the $4^{th}$Forest Type Map and its potential distribution in the recent year (2000), the near future (2050) and the further future (2100) were estimated by analyzing the optimized ranges of three climate indices - warmth index(WI), minimum temperature index of the coldest month (MTCI) and precipitation effectiveness index(PEI). The results showed that the estimated potential distribution of Pinus rigida declines to 56% in the near future(2050) and 15% in the further future (2100). This significant decline was found in most provinces in Korea. However, in Kangwon province where the average elevation is higher than other provinces, the area of potential distribution of Pinus rigida increases in the near future and the further future. Also the result indicated that the potential distribution of Pinus rigida migrates to higher elevation. The potential distributions estimated in this research have relatively high accuracy with consideration of classification accuracy (44.75%) and prediction probability (62.56%).

A Study on the Development of GIS Based Water Quality Simulation System using HSPF in Basin of Yeong-san River (HSPF 모델을 적용한 GIS기반의 영산강 유역 수질모의 시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung Joo;Kim, Kye Hyun;Lee, Chol Young;Lee, Geon Hwi
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.645-656
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    • 2012
  • The basin environment has been seriously damaged by reckless development during the past half century. The demand for management in the basin has increased, but the system for prediction and management is not sufficient. Therefore, the aim of this study is to design a GIS-based water quality linkage system using the most suitable simulation, HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) in this basin of South Korea. To achieve this, data of HSPF model for simulation and GIS data for spatial analysis is collected. And the system applied linkages of the water quality model and GIS such as Loose coupling. Also, the major function of the system was designed as a modular unit. Ultimately, the system is developed using development language of VB.NET from Microsoft and ArcObjects component from ESRI based on design for a module unit. The water quality simulation system can be supported to prediction and management for basin environment of Yeong-San River. In the future study, scenario will be established using the result of HSPF model And will be expected to support to situation of future basin and policy making.

Change Prediction for Potential Habitats of Warm-temperate Evergreen Broad-leaved Trees in Korea by Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 한반도 난온대 상록활엽수의 잠재 생육지 변화 예측)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Nakao, Katsuhiro;Park, Chan-Ho;Lee, Byoung-Yoon;Oh, Kyoung-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.590-600
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    • 2011
  • The research was carried out for prediction of the potential habitats of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees under the current climate(1961~1990) and three climate change scenario(2081~2100) (CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2 and HADCM3-A2) using classification tree(CT) model. Presence/absence records of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees were extracted from actual distribution data as response variables, and four climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; and winter precipitation, PRW) were used as predictor variables. Potential habitats(PH) was predicted 28,230$km^2$ under the current climate and 77,140~89,285$km^2$ under the three climate change scenarios. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 8,274$km^2$ and the proportion of PHLU within PH was 29.3% under the current climate. The PH masked by land use(PHLU) was predicted 35,177~45,170$km^2$ and increased 26.9~36.9% under the three climate change scenarios. The expansion of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees by climate change progressed habitat fragmentation by restriction of land use. The habitats increase of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved trees had been expected competitive with warm-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest and suggested the expand and northward shift of warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest zone.

Water Quality Analysis of Hongcheon River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 홍천강 유역의 수질 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Duckhwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Kim, Jungwook;Han, Daegun;Hong, Ilpyo;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.348-358
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    • 2015
  • Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

Consequence Analysis of Hydrogen Filling Stations based on Cascade Compressing Systems (케스케이드 방식 압축시스템 기반의 수소충전소에 대한 정성적 위험성평가)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Jun;Rhim, Jong-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2021
  • Because of the recent expansion of hydrogen vehicle supply, the installation of hydrogen filling station is expected to gradually expand. This study attempts to predict the damage scale and propose a safer design form based on the scenario that assumes the worst case of a hydrogen station. A Flacs solver using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to predict the damage scale, and the accuracy was verified by comparing it with the experimental results of previous researchers. The damage scale prediction was conducted for hydrogen leakage and explosion, and the prediction target was the KR model based on the measured values. And as a comparative review model, a roofless model was selected without a ceiling. As a result of analyzing the two models, it was possible to confirm the accumulation and retention of hydrogen gas up to 60 vol% or more in the KR model, whereas in the case of the Roofless model, the phenomenon of discharge and diffusion to the outside of the charging station by riding the wall after leakage. I was able to check. In conclusion, it was reviewed that the type of hydrogen charging station without ceiling is more advantageous for safety than the hydrogen filling station model.