• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

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Scenario-based Design and Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Energy Supply System for Transportation Sector (도로운송부문용 에너지 공급 시스템 설계 및 경제성평가)

  • Han, Seulki;Kim, Jiyong
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.164-173
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to design energy supply systems from various energy sources for transportation sectors and comparatively analyze the life cycle cost of different scenario-based systems. For components of the proposed energy supply system, we consider a typical oil refinery, byproduct hydrogen system, renewable energy source (RES)-based electric generation system and existing electricity grid. We also include three types of vehicles in transportation sector such as internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), electric vehicle (EV), fuel cell vehicle (FCV). We then develop various energy supply scenarios which consist of such components and evaluate the economic performance of different systems from the viewpoint of life cycle cost. Finally we illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework by conducting the design problem of energy supply systems of Jeju, Korea. As the results of life cycle cost analysis, EV fueled by electricity from grid is the most economically feasible. In addition, we identify key parameters to contribute the total life cycle cost such as fuel cost, vehicle cost, infra cost and maintenance cost using sensitivity analysis.

An original device for train bogie energy harvesting: a real application scenario

  • Amoroso, Francesco;Pecora, Rosario;Ciminello, Monica;Concilio, Antonio
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.383-399
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    • 2015
  • Today, as railways increase their capacity and speeds, it is more important than ever to be completely aware of the state of vehicles fleet's condition to ensure the highest quality and safety standards, as well as being able to maintain the costs as low as possible. Operation of a modern, dynamic and efficient railway demands a real time, accurate and reliable evaluation of the infrastructure assets, including signal networks and diagnostic systems able to acquire functional parameters. In the conventional system, measurement data are reliably collected using coaxial wires for communication between sensors and the repository. As sensors grow in size, the cost of the monitoring system can grow. Recently, auto-powered wireless sensor has been considered as an alternative tool for economical and accurate realization of structural health monitoring system, being provided by the following essential features: on-board micro-processor, sensing capability, wireless communication, auto-powered battery, and low cost. In this work, an original harvester device is designed to supply wireless sensor system battery using train bogie energy. Piezoelectric materials have in here considered due to their established ability to directly convert applied strain energy into usable electric energy and their relatively simple modelling into an integrated system. The mechanical and electrical properties of the system are studied according to the project specifications. The numerical formulation is implemented with in-house code using commercial software tool and then experimentally validated through a proof of concept setup using an excitation signal by a real application scenario.

Evaluation of Reservoir Drought Response Capability Considering Precipitation of Non-irrigation Period using RCP Scenario (RCP 시나리오에 따른 비관개기 누적강수량을 고려한 둑높이기 저수지의 미래 가뭄대응능력 평가)

  • Bang, JeHong;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong;Lee, Sung-Hack
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2017
  • Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to store water resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interaction between cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model, reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severe than past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirs showed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growing season in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for the upcoming drought.

Development of fundamental technology for dynamic analysis of the high speed EMU (Electric Multiple Unit) (동력분산형 고속철도 주행성능 동역학 해석을 위한 기반기술 개발)

  • Yoon, Ji-Won;Park, Tae-Won;Jun, Kab-Jin;Park, Sung-Moon;Kim, Jung-Bum
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.11b
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    • pp.380-386
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    • 2008
  • The development of a new railway vehicle is under progress through the Next Generation High-Speed Rail Development Project in Korea. Its aim is to develope fundamental technology of the vehicle that can run over 400km/h. The new distributed traction bogie system, 'HEMU'(High-speed Electric Multiple Unit), will be used and is different from that of previously developed high speed railway vehicles. Previous vehicles adopted push-pull type system, which means one traction-car drives rest all of the vehicle. Due to the difference, investigation on dynamic behavior and its safety evaluation are necessary, as a part of verification of the design specification. In the paper, current progresses of researches are presented. And the High-Speed Railway vehicle system is evaluated for a dynamic characteristic simulation. Proper dynamic models including air-suspension system, wheel-rail, bogie and car-body is developed according to the vehicle simulation scenario. The basic platform for the development of dynamic solver is prepared using nodal, modal coordinate system and wheel-rail contact module. Operating scenario is prepared using commercial dynamic analysis program and used for development of dynamic model, which contains many parts such as carbodies, bogies and suspension systems. Furthermore, international safety standard is applied for final verification of the system. Finally, the reliability of the dynamic model will be verified with test results in the further researches. This research will propose a better solution when test results shows a problem in the parts and elements. Finally, the vehicle that has excellent performance will be developed, promoting academic achievement and technical development.

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Exploring teaching and learning methods using artificial intelligence (AI) in the mathematics classroom : Focusing on the development of middle school statistic scenarios (수학교실에서 인공지능(AI)을 활용한 교수학습 방안 탐색 : 중학교 통계 단원 시나리오 개발을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Inseon
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.149-174
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the teaching and learning method using artificial intelligence (AI) in the mathematics classroom. To this end, to predict the direction of mathematics education using AI in the mathematics classroom, this study investigates the fields where AI is applied to education, and discuss issues to consider when introducing AI through scenario development using AI in middle school statistics. This study is meaningful in that it specifically considered how artificial intelligence can be grafted into the mathematics classroom through the development of scenarios that integrate and apply artificial intelligence that has been developed and used segmentally in the current middle school statistics. Afterwards, based on the contents of this study, implications for using AI in the math classroom were derived.

Operability Assessment of a Naval Vessel in Seaways Based on Seakeeping Performance and Operation Scenario (내항 성능과 운용 시나리오에 기반한 함정의 실해역 운항성 평가)

  • Choi, Sungeun;Kim, Kiwon;Kim, Hoyong;Seo, Jeonghwa;Yang, Kyung-Kyu;Rhee, Shin Hyung;Kim, Beomjin
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.59 no.5
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    • pp.252-261
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    • 2022
  • The present study concerns assessing the operability of a surface combatant, based on the Percent-Time-Operable (PTO). For validation of the seakeeping analysis in the regular waves, the model test is first conducted in a towing tank. The seakeeping analysis results in the regular waves are expanded to the irregular waves, considering the wave spectra around the Korean peninsula and in North Pacific. The seakeeping criteria of the surface combatant in transit, combat, replenishment operation, and survival condition are defined by the literature review. An annual operation scenario of the surface combatant in two operation areas, i.e., advance speed and wave direction, are combined with the seakeeping analysis results to assess PTO. The main constraints of operability of the surface combatant are identified as the pitch angle and vertical velocity at the helicopter deck.

Evaluation of ECCD power requirement for neoclassical tearing modes suppression in the CFETR hybrid scenario

  • L.H. He;P.W. Zheng ;T. Yu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.2941-2951
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    • 2023
  • The optimal minimum ECCD power is evaluated numerically for completely suppressing the 3/2 and 2/1 NTMs in the CFETR hybrid scenario. For two typical frequencies of ECCD sources launching from two upper launcher (UL) ports, fec = 210 GHz and 240 GHz with O1-mode, UL1: (Ri, Zi) = (8.47, 5.7) m and UL2: (Ri, Zi) = (8.2, 4.5) m, higher frequency of ECCD source launching from the UL2 port is better than that low frequency counterpart from the UL1 port. Using 240 GHz ECCD source launching from the UL2 port, the minimum power required to fully suppress the two NTMs with precise ECCD alignment is 12.4 MW and 16.7 MW, respectively. When good alignment cannot be achieved, the results suggest that the misalignment should not exceed 0.02α, preferably 0.015α, corresponding to 4.4 cm and 3.3 cm. Considering engineering difficulty of high-frequency gyrotron sources, the optimal minimum ECCD power with the 210 GHz source launching from the UL2 port is 17.9 MW and 20.6 MW for completely suppressing the 3/2 and 2/1 NTMs, respectively. In view of this, it is a good choice to select the 210 GHz ECCD source launching from the UL2 port in the short and medium term.

Modeling water supply and demand under changing climate and socio-economic growth over Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan using WEAP

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.116-116
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    • 2020
  • Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

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Sensitivity Analysis in the Prediction of Coastal Erosion due to Storm Events: case study-Ilsan beach (태풍 기인 연안침식 예측의 불확실성 분석: 사례연구-일산해변)

  • Son, Donghwi;Yoo, Jeseon;Shin, Hyunhwa
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2019
  • In coastal morphological modelling, there are a number of input factors: wave height, water depth, sand particle size, bed friction coefficients, coastal structures and so forth. Measurements or estimates of these input data may include uncertainties due to errors by the measurement or hind-casting methods. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of each input data and the range of the uncertainty during the evaluation of numerical results. In this study, three uncertainty factors are considered with regard to the prediction of coastal erosion in Ilsan beach located in Ilsan-dong, Ulsan metropolitan city. Those are wave diffraction effect of XBeach model, wave input scenario and the specification of the coastal structure. For this purpose, the values of mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater were adjusted respectively and the followed numerical results of morphological changes are analyzed. There were erosion dominant patterns as the wave direction is perpendicular to Ilsan beach, the higher significant wave height, and the lower height of the submerged breakwater. Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty impacts among mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater are compared. In the study area, the uncertainty influence by the wave input scenario was the largest, followed by the height of the submerged breakwater and the mean wave direction.

Improvement and Educational Effectiveness of Fashion Consumption Trend Analysis Class Based on IC-PBL (IC-PBL 기반의 패션 소비트렌드 분석 수업 개선 및 교육적 효과)

  • Jaekyong Lee
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.121-134
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    • 2023
  • With the development of information and communication technology, interest in new educational approaches that can enhance the learning performance of learners with improved information literacy skills is increasing, and universities are actively promoting educational innovation to foster the talents required by society. In the field of fashion studies education, which is closely related to the fashion industry, there is a strong need to develop field-linked educational programs that reflect the trends in the industry and changes in the educational system. The purpose of this study was to introduce industry-coupled problem-based learning (IC-PBL) to the course "Understanding Fashion Consumption Trends" for non-fashion majors to reflect the current needs and strengthen the educational effectiveness of the learners through a survey. A seven-step curriculum (introduction to the class, practitioner's problem, learner's problem analysis, organizing concepts related to variables, information collection and scenario writing, presentation and scenario proposal, and evaluation) not only enhanced learners' understanding of fashion consumption trends and the fashion industry but also greatly amplified learners' satisfaction with the class. The results of the survey showed that the seven-step curriculum was effective in increasing learners' self-directed learning ability, problem-solving ability, and confidence in learning. Self-directed learning ability was stronger than other factors, consistent with the core principle of problem-based learning to empower learners to take the initiative and promote self-directed learning. Each factor analyzed was positively correlated.