• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

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Assessment of CMIP5 GCMs for future extreme drought analysis (미래 극한 가뭄 전망을 위한 CMIP5 GCMs 평가)

  • Hong, Hyun-Pyo;Park, Seo-Yeon;Kim, Tae-Woong;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.7
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2018
  • In this study, CMIP5 GCMs rainfall data (2011~2099) based on RCP scenarios were used to analyze the extreme drought evaluation for the future period. For prospective drought assessment, historical observations were used based on the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) data (1976~2010) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Through the analysis of various indicators, such as average annual rainfall, rainy days, drought spell, and average drought severity was carried out for the drought evaluation of the five major river basins (Han river, Nakdong river, Geum river, Sumjin river, and Youngsan river) over the Korean peninsula. The GCMs that predicted the most severe future droughts are CMCC-CMS, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Moderate future droughts were predicted from HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM and HadGEM2-ES. GCMs with relatively weak future drought forecasts were selected as CESM1-CAM5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and CanESM2. The results of this study might be used as a fundamental data to choose a reasonable climate change scenario in future extreme drought evaluation.

Structural Behavior Evaluation of a Cable-Stayed Bridge Subjected to Aircraft Impact: A Numerical Study (항공기 충돌에 대한 사장교의 구조거동 평가: 수치해석적 접근)

  • Choi, Keunki;Lee, Jungwhee;Chung, Chul-Hun;An, Dongwoo;Yoon, Jaeyong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.137-149
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    • 2021
  • Cable-stayed bridges are infrastructure facilities of a highly public nature; therefore, it is essential to ensure operational safety and prompt response in the event of a collapse or damage caused by natural and social disasters. Among social disasters, impact accidents can occur in bridges when a vehicle collides with a pier or when crashes occur due to aircraft defects. In the case of offshore bridges, ship collisions will occur at the bottom of the pylon. In this research, a procedure to evaluate the structural behavior of a cable-stayed bridge for aircraft impact is suggested based on a numerical analysis approach, and the feasibility of the procedure is demonstrated by performing an example assessment. The suggested procedure includes 1) setting up suitable aircraft impact hazard scenarios, 2) structural modeling considering the complex behavior mechanisms of cable-stayed bridges, and 3) structural behavior evaluation of cable-stayed bridges using numerical impact simulation. It was observed that the scenario set in this study did not significantly affect the target bridge. However, if impact analysis is performed through various scenarios in the future, the load position and critical load level to cause serious damage to the bridge could be identified. The scenario-based assessment process employed in this study is expected to facilitate the evaluation of bridge structures under aircraft impact in both existing bridges and future designs.

A Study on AI Algorithm that can be used to Arts Exhibition : Focusing on the Development and Evaluation of the Chatbot Model (예술 전시에 활용 가능한 AI 알고리즘 연구 : 챗봇 모델 개발 및 평가를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Hak-Hyeon;Yoon, Mi-Ra
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.369-381
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    • 2021
  • Artificial Intelligence(AI) technology can be used in arts exhibitions ranging from planning exhibitions, filed progress, and evaluation. AI has been expanded its scope from planning exhibition and guidance services to tools for creating arts. This paper focuses on chatbots that utilize exhibition and AI technology convergence to provide information and services. To study more specifically, I developed a chatbot for exhibition services using the Naver Clova chatbot tool and information from the National Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art(MMCA), Korea. In this study, information was limited to viewing and exhibition rather than all information of the MMCA, and the chatbot was developed which provides a scenario type to get an answering user want to gain through a button and a text question and answer(Q&A) type to directly input a question. As a result of evaluating the chatbot with six items according to ELIZA's chatbot evaluation scale, a score of 4.2 out of 5 was derived by completing the development of a chatbot to be used to deliver viewing and exhibition information. The future research task is to create a perfect chatbot model that can be used in an actual arts exhibition space by connecting the developed chatbot with continuous scenario answers, resolving text Q&A-type answer failures and errors, and expanding additional services.

Development of Radiation Dose Assessment Algorithm for Arbitrary Geometry Radiation Source Based on Point-kernel Method (Point-kernel 방법론 기반 임의 형태 방사선원에 대한 외부피폭 방사선량 평가 알고리즘 개발)

  • Ju Young Kim;Min Seong Kim;Ji Woo Kim;Kwang Pyo Kim
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2023
  • Workers in nuclear power plants are likely to be exposed to radiation from various geometrical sources. In order to evaluate the exposure level, the point-kernel method can be utilized. In order to perform a dose assessment based on this method, the radiation source should be divided into point sources, and the number of divisions should be set by the evaluator. However, for the general public, there may be difficulties in selecting the appropriate number of divisions and performing an evaluation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm for dose assessment for arbitrary shaped sources based on the point-kernel method. For this purpose, the point-kernel method was analyzed and the main factors for the dose assessment were selected. Subsequently, based on the analyzed methodology, a dose assessment algorithm for arbitrary shaped sources was developed. Lastly, the developed algorithm was verified using Microshield. The dose assessment procedure of the developed algorithm consisted of 1) boundary space setting step, 2) source grid division step, 3) the set of point sources generation step, and 4) dose assessment step. In the boundary space setting step, the boundaries of the space occupied by the sources are set. In the grid division step, the boundary space is divided into several grids. In the set of point sources generation step, the coordinates of the point sources are set by considering the proportion of sources occupying each grid. Finally, in the dose assessment step, the results of the dose assessments for each point source are summed up to derive the dose rate. In order to verify the developed algorithm, the exposure scenario was established based on the standard exposure scenario presented by the American National Standards Institute. The results of the evaluation with the developed algorithm and Microshield were compare. The results of the evaluation with the developed algorithm showed a range of 1.99×10-1~9.74×10-1 μSv hr-1, depending on the distance and the error between the results of the developed algorithm and Microshield was about 0.48~6.93%. The error was attributed to the difference in the number of point sources and point source distribution between the developed algorithm and the Microshield. The results of this study can be utilized for external exposure radiation dose assessments based on the point-kernel method.

U-Commerce in Service Space : Business Model Analysis and Case Study (서비스 공간에서의 유비쿼터스 상거래 비즈니스 모델 분석 및 사례연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.45-61
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    • 2008
  • Previous U-Commerce researches have dealt with the business support systems for traditional commerce space such as real world shopping malls. This paper investigates U-Commerce business models in service space. The McDonald's Touch-Order case is analyzed from business model perspective and the Media-Embedded Place business model is introduced as a U-Commerce business model for value creation in service space. The media-embedded place business model attaches auto-identification tags to tables or billboards, triggers commercial transaction through the tags, and shares the revenues and the incentives among the place owners and commerce/content providers. This paper analyzes its scenario and applications and illustrates the profitability analysis using so-called 'tag evaluation model'.

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A Study for Technique of Detecting the Real-time Route Aberrance in the Passage Route Using Ship's Domain Theory

  • Gang, Sang-Guen
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.273-278
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    • 2017
  • This paper is to study a technique to detect the real-time route aberrance on the passage route using bumper area of the ship domain theory. In order to evaluate the risk of route aberrance, a quarter line was created between the center line and the outer line, and a passage route with the image line outside the outer line was designed. It calculated the real-time route aberrance with the vessel bumper area to measure the risk level on the passage route. The route aberrance using overlap bumper area was simulated through three kinds of scenario vessel at the designed passage route. In this paper, we proposed Ratio to Aberrance Risk as one of the evaluation parameter to detect the route aberrance risk at each sector in the passage route and to give the evaluation criteria of 5 levels for seafarer's navigation safety. The purpose of this work is to provide the information of the route aberrance to seafarer automatically, to make it possible to prevent the human errors of seafarer on the high risk aberrance route. As the real-time risk of route aberrance on the passage route is automatically evaluated, it was well thought that seafarer can have only a little workload in order to know the risk of route aberrance at early-time. Following the further development of this work, the techniques for detecting the real-time route aberrance will be able to use the unmanned vessel.

Safely Evaluation on Common Grounding System for Electric Railway (전기철도의 공용접지 시스템에 대한 안정성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin-Ho;Hwang, Yu-Mo
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers B
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.298-306
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    • 2002
  • We performed an safety evaluation on constructing of a common grounding system for electrical railway in view of its efficacy and technical fit. In order to compare the conventional grounding method, which has been individually conducted, with the common grounding with all ground wires connected in common to the counterpoise buried below the surface of the earth in parallel with rail, we set up scenarios with several cases of fault and load conditions in Chungbuk railway sections with the common grounding system. Based on models for railway conductors including the grounded system, line Parameters of railway power system are computed. The circuit model for power system with up and down lines, auto-transformers and railway substations is used to compute impedances of counterpoise and substation ground net. For each scenario with faults and operation conditions of railway, the induced potentials on signal and communication lines are also computed. It is shown that the common grounding for Chungbuk railway is superior experimentally to the conventional method in three respects: (1) the lower rail potentials during operation of railway in line, (2) the lower rail potentials for short-circuit faults between catenary and rail, and (3) the lower stress voltages on signal and communication lines for short-circuit or ground faults. The analysis results confirm that the grounding system for electric railway is required to be built by the common grounding and be evaluated on its safety in design.

Study for Using VR Techniques Performance Evaluation of the Elevator Evacuation (VR기법을 활용한 엘리베이터 피난 성능평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ro, Se-Ho;Yoon, Sung-Wook;Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2011
  • In the disaster prevention design, it is important point to secure escape way at event of fire which makes people away from the fire more quickly and safely. Development of construction techniques leads to build many skyscrapers, and skyscrapers contains various dangers and increase levels of disaster. At basic design stage for skyscrapers, evacuation scenario is considered that occupants are escape using escape stairs and emergency elevators simultaneously at fire, but there is no evacuation program to simulate using escape stairs and emergency elevators at the same time. In this study, evacuation simulation is performed using method of VR which is based on Virtools of 3DVIA Co., and Simulex of IES Co. for safety and effectiveness where occupants are escape using escape stairs and emergency elevators simultaneously at the fire.

Models for Measurement of Efficiency of Free Flight Separation Assurance (자유비행 분리보증 효율성 측정모델 연구)

  • Lee, Dae-Yong;Young, Kang-Ja
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.977-985
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    • 2011
  • Airborne separation assurance is a key requirement for Free Flight Airspace operations, This paper study the feasibility of airborne separation assurance for free flight Airspaces operations by evaluating the efficiency measurement models. Three qualitatively different methods are utilized; one based Ground and Air conflict probability model, other based Dynamic Density model. the other based Direct operating cost model. The evaluation is Direct Operating Cost model and Two metrics are utilized for the efficiency measurements; airborne separation assurance performed quite well in the Free Flight evaluation; (1) 2 scenario of the conflict situations are resolved; (2) The MD-80 flight peformed separation assurance and efficiency, Not only appling for geometric method algorithm is more efficiently than potential method, but also the most efficiently geometric combined method.

Simulation and Performance Evaluation of the Self-Adaptive Light Control System (자가-적응 조명 제어 소프트웨어의 시뮬레이션 및 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Junhyi;Lee, Euijong;Baik, Doo-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2016
  • This research aims to perform the simulation of self-adaptive lighting control software, and to evaluate the performance of the implemented system. In this text, Self-adaptive software means what detects unexpected changes in surrounding environment by self-monitoring during its run-time, and satisfies demanded condition by adjusting its operation. This is a research about the lighting control system which is operating with the fundamental of self-adaptation concept in IoT(Internet of Things) environment. The system, which is proposed in this text, operates adaptation onto the request of a defined user as recognizing the changes of surrounding environment. This text introduces a relating simulation scenario, system architecture, architecture valuation basis,, and executed evaluation of performance by processing simulations.