• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

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Calculation of preliminary site-specific DCGLs for nuclear power plant decommissioning using hybrid scenarios

  • Seo, Hyung-Woo;Sohn, Wook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.1098-1108
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    • 2019
  • Korea's first commercial nuclear power plant at Kori site was permanently shut down in 2017 and is currently in transition stage. Preparatory activities for decommissioning such as historical site assessment, characterization, and dismantling design are being actively carried out for successful D&D (Dismantling and Decontamination) at Kori site. The ultimate goal of decommissioning will be to ensure the safety of workers and residents that may arise during the decommissioning of nuclear facilities and, thereby finally returning the site to its original status in accordance with the release criteria. Upon completion of decommissioning, the resident's safety at a site released will be assessed from the evaluation of dose caused by radionuclides expected to be present or detected at the site. Although the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants with decommissioning experience use different site release criteria, most of them are 0.25 mSv/y. In Korea, both the unrestricted and restricted release criteria have been set to 0.1 mSv/y by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission. However, since the dose is difficult to measure, measurable concentration guideline levels for residual radionuclides that result in dose equivalent to the site release criteria should be derived. For this derivation, site reuse scenario, selection of potential radionuclides, and systematic methodology should be developed in planning stage of Kori site decommissioning. In this paper, for calculation of a preliminary site-specific Derived Concentration Guideline Levels (DCGLs) for the Nuclear Power Plant site, a novel approach has been developed which can fully reflect practical reuse plans of the Kori site by taking into account multiple site reuse scenarios sequentially, thereby striking a remarkable distinction with conventional approaches which considers only a single site scenario.

Analysis of future flood inundation change in the Tonle Sap basin under a climate change scenario

  • Lee, Dae Eop;Jung, Sung Ho;Yeon, Min Ho;Lee, Gi Ha
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.433-446
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

Design of Scenario Creation Model for AI-CGF based on Naval Operations, Resources Analysis Model(I): Evolutionary Learning (해군분석모델용 AI-CGF를 위한 시나리오 생성 모델 설계(I): 진화학습)

  • Hyun-geun, Kim;Jung-seok, Gang;Kang-moon, Park;Jae-U, Kim;Jang-hyun, Kim;Bum-joon, Park;Sung-do, Chi
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2022
  • Military training is an essential item for the fundamental problem of war. However, there has always been a problem that many resources are consumed, causing spatial and environmental pollution. The concepts of defense modeling and simulation and CGF(Computer Generated Force) using computer technology began to appear to improve this problem. The Naval Operations, Resources Analysis Model(NORAM) developed by the Republic of Korea Navy is also a DEVS(Discrete Event Simulation)-based naval virtual force analysis model. The current NORAM is a battle experiment conducted by an operator, and parameter values such as maneuver and armament operation for individual objects for each situation are evaluated. In spite of our research conducted evolutionary, supervised, reinforcement learning, in this paper, we introduce our design of a scenario creation model based on evolutionary learning using genetic algorithms. For verification, the NORAM is loaded with our model to analyze wartime engagements. Human-level tactical scenario creation capability is secured by automatically generating enemy tactical scenarios for human-designed Blue Army tactical scenarios.

Urban Growth Prediction each Administrative District Considering Social Economic Development Aspect of Climate Change Scenario (기후변화시나리오의 사회경제발전 양상을 고려한 행정구역별 도시성장 예측)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Park, So Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2013
  • Land-use/cover changes not only amplify or alleviate influence of climate changes but also they are representative factors to affect environmental change along with climate changes. Thus, the use of land-use/cover changes scenario, consistent climate change scenario is very important to evaluate reliable influences by climate change. The purpose for this study is to predict and analyze the future urban growth considering social and economic scenario from RCP scenario suggested by the 5th evaluation report of IPCC. This study sets land-use/cover changes scenario based on storyline from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario. Urban growth rate for each scenario is calculated by urban area per person and GDP for the last 25 years and regression formula based on double logarithmic model. In addition, the urban demand is predicted by the future population and GDP suggested by the government. This predicted demand is spatially distributed by the urban growth probability map made by logistic regression. As a result, the accuracy of urban growth probability map is appeared to be 89.3~90.3% high and the prediction accuracy for RCP 4.5 showed higher value than that of RCP 8.5. Urban areas from 2020 to 2050 showed consistent growth while the rate of increasing urban areas for RCP 8.5 scenario showed higher value than that of RCP 4.5 scenario. Increase of urban areas is predicted by the fact that famlands are damaged. Especially RCP 8.5 scenario indicated more increase not only farmland but also forest than RCP 4.5 scenario. In addition, the decrease of farmland and forest showed higher level from metropolitan cities than province cities. The results of this study is believed to be used for basic data to clarify complex two-way effects quantitatively for future climate change, land-use/cover changes.

On the design method of physical architecture based on the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) approach (물리적 아키텍처 설계에 대한 DSM 방법론 적용 사례 연구)

  • Choi, Sang Wook;Choi, Sang Taik;Jung, Yun Ho;Jang, Jae Deok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2012
  • Development of the system that has required performance is the most important figure and that is the key of project succeed. In order to perform that, systems engineering has come to the fore as a solution. In each step of system engineering process, particularly, requirement analysis and derivation, logical solution, architecture design step are known to affect many of the function and efficiency. Of these, this paper focus on architecture design. We introduce methodology for physical architecture design by applying DSM(Design Structure Matrix) methodology which is based on result of logical solution from MBSE methodology.

A Development of Evaluation System for trainee on the Fire Fighting Ship Training Simulation (소방선 훈련 시뮬레이터 훈련원 평가 시스템 개발)

  • Oh, Myung-Hyun;Kim, Han-Gyu;Kim, Jeong-Eun;Kim, Eung-Gon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.166-169
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    • 2011
  • This system is a FFS(Fire Fighting Ship) Training System to simulate real FFS Ship. In this system, Trainees get the skill of maneuvering and fire fighting and ability to make the best of situation by experiencing various scenario from instructors. In this case, There need to be an evaluation system to evaluate trainees objectively and acceptably. And the FFS Training Evaluation System was developed.

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Security Threat Evaluation for Smartgrid Control System (스마트그리드 제어시스템 보안 위협 평가 방안 연구)

  • Ko, Jongbin;Lee, Seokjun;Shon, Taeshik
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.873-883
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    • 2013
  • Security vulnerability quantification is the method that identify potential vulnerabilities by scoring vulnerabilities themselves and their countermeasures. However, due to the structural feature of smart grid system, it is difficult to apply existing security threat evaluation schemes. In this paper, we propose a network model to evaluate smartgrid security threat for AMI and derive attack scenarios. Additionally, we show that the result of security threat evaluation for proposed network model and attack scenario by applying MTTC scheme.

Development of Inspection Elements for the Periodic Inspection of Large Buses with AEBS and LDWS Installed (AEBS와 LDWS가 장착된 대형버스의 정기검사를 위한 검사요소 개발)

  • Park, Sanghyeop;Han, Jongho;Yoon, Yoonki;Lee, Taehee;Lee, Hosang;Kang, Byungdo
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.42-49
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we proposes a study on the derivation of inspection factors for the periodic inspection of large buses equipped with AEBS and LDWS. we investigate the safety evaluation (NCAP) of domestic and foreign vehicles and safety standards for the two functions currently in operation and analyze the evaluation factors, measurement methods and evaluation scenarios and so on. In addition, the test scenario was derived by analyzing the vehicle safety evaluation data already held, Therefore, we use an real large bus and the inspection elements for the periodic inspection were derived.

Establishment of Complex Disaster Scenario on the Utility Tunnel Study for Digital Twin System Application (디지털트윈 시스템 적용을 위한 공동구 복합재난 시나리오 구축)

  • Yon Ha Chung; So Dam Kim;Hyun Jeong Seo;Hojun Lee;Tae Jung Song
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.861-872
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to establish a complex disaster scenario that can comprehensively consider various disaster situations that may occur in the utility tunnel. Method: In order to comprehensively consider the correlation between disasters, a composite disaster scenario was derived from a combination of damage factors, respectively. A risk assessment was performed in order to derive the priorities of the scenarios. And based on the results, the priorities of complex disaster scenarios were set. Result: Based on the disaster cases in the utility tunnel, a plan was prepared for complex disaster scenarios centered on damage. A complex disaster scenario was specified using a semi-quantitative evaluation method for single and multiple disaster factors such as fire, flooding, and earthquake. Conclusion: The composite disaster scenario derived from this study can be used for the prevention and preparation of damage when the precursor symptoms of a disaster are detected. In addition, the results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for preparing strategic plans and preparing complex disaster response technologies to induce rapid response and recovery in case of emergency disasters.

Analysis of Students' Clinical Judgment Process During Nursing Simulation (간호시뮬레이션에서 나타나는 임상판단과정 분석)

  • Shim, Kaka;Shin, Hyunsook;Rim, Dahae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.130-138
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    • 2018
  • This study was a descriptive study, analyzing the clinical judgment process that occurs in a simulation of practice education for nursing students applying to LCJR. Subjects were two nursing college students in S city. Fever scenario and apnea scenario, including mock patient, were implemented. Data collection was conducted between September, 2013 and December, 2014. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics, paired t-test, and Pearson's correlation of PASW statistics 18.0 program. The result of this study revealed that the clinical judgment scores of nursing college students were 30.50 for males and 29.32 for females. Nursing Clinical judgment score for the apnea scenario was higher than the score for the febrile scenario, and nursing students' self-evaluation and professors' evaluation showed a significant correlation with respect to the responding domain. In comparison the student and faculty ratings, domain of interpreting and domain of reflecting were significant This study will provide educators with foundational knowledge of program development to enhance nursing students' clinical judgment abilities. We suggest more discussion on their nursing practice and judgment during debriefing session may be beneficial for students.