• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scale validation

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A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Comparing Farming Methods in Pollutant runoff loads from Paddy Fields using the CREAMS-PADDY Model (영농방법에 따른 논에서의 배출부하량 모의)

  • Song, Jung-Hun;Kang, Moon-Seong;Song, In-Hong;Jang, Jeong-Ryeol
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.318-327
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    • 2012
  • BACKGROUND: For Non-Point Source(NPS) loads reduction, pollutant loads need to be quantified for major farming methods. The objective of this study was to evaluate impacts of farming methods on NPS pollutant loads from a paddy rice field during the growing season. METHODS AND RESULTS: The height of drainage outlet, amount of fertilizer, irrigation water quality were considered as farming factors for scenarios development. The control was derived from conventional farming methods and four different scenarios were developed based combination of farming factors. A field scale model, CREAMS-PADDY(Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems for PADDY), was used to calculate pollutant nutrient loads. The data collected from an experimental plot located downstream of the Idong reservoir were used for model calibration and validation. The simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. The calibrated model was used to evaluate farming scenarios in terms of NPS loads. Pollutant loads for T-N, T-P were reduced by 5~62%, 8~37% with increasing the height of drainage outlet from 100 mm of 100 mm, respectively. When amount of fertilizer was changed from standard to conventional, T-N, T-P pollutant loads were reduced by 0~22%, 0~24%. Irrigation water quality below water criteria IV of reservoir increased T-N of 9~65%, T-P of 9~47% in comparison with conventional. CONCLUSION(S): The results indicated that applying increased the height of drainage after midsummer drainage, standard fertilization level during non-rainy seasons, irrigation water quality below water criteria IV of reservoir were effective farming methods to reduce NPS pollutant loads from paddy in Korea.

Validation of QF-PCR for Rapid Prenatal Diagnosis of Common Chromosomal Aneuploidies in Korea

  • Han, Sung-Hee;Ryu, Jae-Song;An, Jeong-Wook;Park, Ok-Kyoung;Yoon, Hye-Ryoung;Yang, Young-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Ryul
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Quantitative fluorescent polymerase chain reaction (QF-PCR) allows for the rapid prenatal diagnosis of common aneuploidies. The main advantages of this assay are its low cost, speed, and automation, allowing for large-scale application. However, despite these advantages, it is not a routine method for prenatal aneuploidy screening in Korea. Our objective in the present study was to validate the performance of QF-PCR using short tandem repeat (STR) markers in a Korean population as a means for rapid prenatal diagnosis. Material and Methods: A QF-PCR assay using an Elucigene kit (Gen-Probe, Abingdon, UK), containing 20 STR markers located on chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y, was performed on 847 amniotic fluid (AF) samples for prenatal aneuploidy screening referred for prenatal aneuploidy screening from 2007 to 2009. The results were then compared to those obtained using conventional cytogenetic analysis. To evaluate the informativity of STR markers, the heterozygosity index of each marker was determined in all the samples. Results: Three autosomes (13, 18, and 21) and X and Y chromosome aneuploidies were detected in 19 cases (2.2%, 19/847) after QF-PCR analysis of the 847 AF samples. Their results are identical to those of conventional cytogenetic analysis, with 100% positive predictive value. However, after cytogenetic analysis, 7 cases (0.8%, 7/847) were found to have 5 balanced and 2 unbalanced chromosomal abnormalities that were not detected by QF-PCR. The STR markers had a slightly low heterozygosity index (average: 0.76) compared to those reported in Caucasians (average: 0.80). Submicroscopic duplication of D13S634 marker, which might be a unique finding in Koreans, was detected in 1.4% (12/847) of the samples in the present study. Conclusion: A QF-PCR assay for prenatal aneuploidy screening was validated in our institution and proved to be efficient and reliable. However, we suggest that each laboratory must perform an independent validation test for each STR marker in order to develop interpretation guidelines of the results and must integrate QF-PCR into the routine cytogenetic laboratory workflow.

Modeling and mapping fuel moisture content using equilibrium moisture content computed from weather data of the automatic mountain meteorology observation system (AMOS) (산악기상자료와 목재평형함수율에 기반한 산림연료습도 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, HoonTaek;WON, Myoung-Soo;YOON, Suk-Hee;JANG, Keun-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 2019
  • Dead fuel moisture content is a key variable in fire danger rating as it affects fire ignition and behavior. This study evaluates simple regression models estimating the moisture content of standardized 10-h fuel stick (10-h FMC) at three sites with different characteristics(urban and outside/inside the forest). Equilibrium moisture content (EMC) was used as an independent variable, and in-situ measured 10-h FMC was used as a dependent variable and validation data. 10-h FMC spatial distribution maps were created for dates with the most frequent fire occurrence during 2013-2018. Also, 10-h FMC values of the dates were analyzed to investigate under which 10-h FMC condition forest fire is likely to occur. As the results, fitted equations could explain considerable part of the variance in 10-h FMC (62~78%). Compared to the validation data, the models performed well with R2 ranged from 0.53 to 0.68, root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 2.52% to 3.43%, and bias ranged from -0.41% to 1.10%. When the 10-h FMC model fitted for one site was applied to the other sites, $R^2$ was maintained as the same while RMSE and bias increased up to 5.13% and 3.68%, respectively. The major deficiency of the 10-h FMC model was that it poorly caught the difference in the drying process after rainfall between 10-h FMC and EMC. From the analysis of 10-h FMC during the dates fire occurred, more than 70% of the fires occurred under a 10-h FMC condition of less than 10.5%. Overall, the present study suggested a simple model estimating 10-h FMC with acceptable performance. Applying the 10-h FMC model to the automatic mountain weather observation system was successfully tested to produce a national-scale 10-h FMC spatial distribution map. This data will be fundamental information for forest fire research, and will support the policy maker.

Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation and Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model (II) - Calibration, Validation and Application of the Model - (SLURP 모형을 이용한 기후, 식생, 토지이용변화가 농업용 저수지 유역과 하천유역에 미치는 기여도 평가(II) - 모형의 검·보정 및 적용 -)

  • Park, Geun-Ae;Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2B
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    • pp.121-135
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    • 2010
  • This study is to assess the effect of potential future climate change on the inflow of agricultural reservoir and its impact to downstream streamflow by reservoir operation for paddy irrigation water supply using the SLURP. Before the future analysis, the SLURP model was calibrated using the 6 years daily streamflow records (1998-200398 and validated using 3 years streamflow data (2004-200698 for a 366.5 $km^2$ watershed including two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang8 and Gosam98located in Anseongcheon watershed. The calibration and validation results showed that the model was able to simulate the daily streamflow well considering the reservoir operation for paddy irrigation and flood discharge, with a coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from s 7 to s 9 and 0.5 to s 8 respectively. Then, the future potential climate change impact was assessed using the future wthe fu data was downscaled by nge impFactor method throuih bias-correction, the future land uses wtre predicted by modified CA-Markov technique, and the future ve potentiacovfu information was predicted and considered by the linear regression bpowten mecthly NDVI from NOAA AVHRR ima ps and mecthly mean temperature. The future (2020s, 2050s and 2e 0s) reservoir inflow, the temporal changes of reservoir storaimpand its impact to downstream streamflow watershed wtre analyzed for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios based on a base year (2005). At an annual temporal scale, the reservoir inflow and storaimpchange oue, anagricultural reservoir wtre projected to big decrease innautumnnunder all possiblmpcombinations of conditions. The future streamflow, soossmoosture and grounwater recharge decreased slightly, whtre as the evapotransporation was projected to increase largely for all possiblmpcombinations of the conditions. At last, this study was analysed contribution of weather, vegetation and land use change to assess which factor biggest impact on agricultural reservoir and stream watershed. As a result, weather change biggest impact on agricultural reservoir inflow, storage, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge.

Developing a Tool to Assess Competency to Consent to Treatment in the Mentally Ill Patient: Reliability and Validity (정신장애인의 치료동의능력 평가 도구 개발 : 신뢰도와 타당화)

  • Seo, Mi-Kyoung;Rhee, MinKyu;Kim, Seung-Hyun;Cho, Sung-Nam;Ko, Young-hun;Lee, Hyuk;Lee, Moon-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Health Psychology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.579-596
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    • 2009
  • This study aimed to develop the Korean tool of competency to consent to psychiatric treatment and to analyze the reliability and validity of this tool. Also the developed tool's efficiency in determining whether a patient possesses treatment consent competence was checked using the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve and the relevant indices. A total of 193 patients with mental illness, who were hospitalized in a mental hospital or were in community mental health center, participated in this study. We administered a questionnaire consisting of 14 questions concerning understanding, appreciation, reasoning ability, and expression of a choice to the subjects. To investigate the validity of the tool, we conducted the K-MMSE, insight test, estimated IQ, and BPRS. The tool's reliability and usefulness were examined via Cronbach's alpha, ICC, and ROC analysis, and criterion related validation was performed. This tool showed that internal consistency and agreement between raters was relatively high(ICC .80~.98, Cronbach's alpha .56~.83)and the confirmatory factor analysis for constructive validation showed that the tool was valid. Also, estimated IQ, and MMSE were significantly correlated to understanding, appreciation, expression of a choice, and reasoning ability. However, the BPRS did not show significant correlation with any subcompetences. In ROC analysis, full scale cutoff score 18.5 was suggested. Subscale cutoff scores were understanding 4.5, appreciation 8.5, reasoning ability 3.5, and expression of a choice 0.5. These results suggest that this assessment tool is reliable, valid and efficient diagnostically. Finally, limitations and implications of this study were discussed.

Radiomics Analysis of Gray-Scale Ultrasonographic Images of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma > 1 cm: Potential Biomarker for the Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis (Radiomics를 이용한 1 cm 이상의 갑상선 유두암의 초음파 영상 분석: 림프절 전이 예측을 위한 잠재적인 바이오마커)

  • Hyun Jung Chung;Kyunghwa Han;Eunjung Lee;Jung Hyun Yoon;Vivian Youngjean Park;Minah Lee;Eun Cho;Jin Young Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.84 no.1
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2023
  • Purpose This study aimed to investigate radiomics analysis of ultrasonographic images to develop a potential biomarker for predicting lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Materials and Methods This study included 431 PTC patients from August 2013 to May 2014 and classified them into the training and validation sets. A total of 730 radiomics features, including texture matrices of gray-level co-occurrence matrix and gray-level run-length matrix and single-level discrete two-dimensional wavelet transform and other functions, were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used for selecting the most predictive features in the training data set. Results Lymph node metastasis was associated with the radiomics score (p < 0.001). It was also associated with other clinical variables such as young age (p = 0.007) and large tumor size (p = 0.007). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.616-0.759) for the training set and 0.650 (95% confidence interval: 0.575-0.726) for the validation set. Conclusion This study showed the potential of ultrasonography-based radiomics to predict cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC; thus, ultrasonography-based radiomics can act as a biomarker for PTC.

Effect of the Suicide Prevention Program to the Impulsive Psychology of the Elementary School Student (자살예방 프로그램이 초등학교 충동심리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Soo Jin;Kang, Ho Jung;Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.

Comparative study on the performance of Pod type waterjet by experiment and computation

  • Kim, Moon-Chan;Park, Warn-Gyu;Chun, Ho-Hwan;Jung, Un-Hwa
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2010
  • A comparative study between a computation and an experiment has been conducted to predict the performance of a Pod type waterjet for cm amphibious wheeled vehicle. The Pod type waterjet has been chosen on the basis of the required specific speed of more than 2500. As the Pod type waterjet is an extreme type of axial flow type waterjet, theoretical as well as experimental works about Pod type waterjets are very rare. The main purpose of the present study is to validate and compare to the experimental results of the Pod type waterjet with the developed CFD in-house code based on the RANS equations. The developed code has been validated by comparing with the experimental results of the well-known turbine problem. The validation also extended to the flush type waterjet where the pressures along the duct surface and also velocities at nozzle area have been compared with experimental results. The Pod type waterjet has been designed and the performance of the designed waterjet system including duct, impeller and stator was analyzed by the previously mentioned m-house CFD Code. The pressure distributions and limiting streamlines on the blade surfaces were computed to confirm the performance of the designed waterjets. In addition, the torque and momentum were computed to find the entire efficiency and these were compared with the model test results. Measurements were taken of the flow rate at the nozzle exit, static pressure at the various sections along the duct and also the nozzle, revolution of the impeller, torque, thrust and towing forces at various advance speed's for the prediction of performance as well as for comparison with the computations. Based on these measurements, the performance was analyzed according to the ITTC96 standard analysis method. The full-scale effective and the delivered power of the wheeled vehicle were estimated for the prediction of the service speed. This paper emphasizes the confirmation of the ITTC96 analysis method and the developed analysis code for the design and analysis of the Pod type waterjet system.

A Validation Study for the Korean Version of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Assessment Test (CAT)

  • Hwang, Yong Il;Jung, Ki-Suck;Lim, Seong-Yong;Lee, Yil-Seob;Kwon, Nam-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.74 no.6
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    • pp.256-263
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    • 2013
  • Background: Health status measure is not only important for clinical research studies but also for clinical practices of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. The objective of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Korean Version of COPD Assessment Test (CAT) in primary care clinics as well as in referral hospitals. Methods: Smokers or ex-smokers, aged 40 years or older, with a smoking history of >10 pack-years; and a COPD diagnosis in the past 6 months or more, were recruited from 4 primary care clinics and 2 referral hospitals. Demographic, medical, and spirometry data was collected from patients who completed the CAT and St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), and had their dyspnea been assessed. The primary endpoint was the correlation between of the Korean version of CAT with SGRQ in patients with COPD. Results: A total 100 patients were enrolled. The mean age and smoking amounts were $69.2{\pm}8.4$ years and $40.6{\pm}22.3$ pack-years, respectively. Sixty-seven percent of the patients reported at least one exacerbation in the past year. The mean CAT score was $16.9{\pm}8.0$. The internal consistency assessed by Cronbach's alpha was 0.85. The CAT score was positively correlated with the SGRQ score (r=0.76, p<0.0001) and each component of SGRQ: symptoms, activity and impacts; r=0.68, r=0.61, and r=0.72, respectively (all p<0.0001). These positive correlations were preserved in the different groups (r=0.86, p<0.0001 in primary care clinic group; r=0.69, p<0.0001 in hospital group). The CAT score was also positively correlated to the Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale (r=0.46, p<0.0001). Conclusion: The Korean version of CAT had good internal consistency and showed good correlations with SGRQ. It can be used for assessing the impacts of COPD on the patient's health including primary care setting.