• 제목/요약/키워드: Safety Prediction

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전방향 주변 차량의 확률적 거동 예측을 이용한 모델 예측 제어 기법 기반 자율주행자동차 조향 제어 (MPC based Steering Control using a Probabilistic Prediction of Surrounding Vehicles for Automated Driving)

  • 이준영;이경수
    • 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) approach to control the steering angle in an autonomous vehicle. In designing a highly automated driving control algorithm, one of the research issues is to cope with probable risky situations for enhancement of safety. While human drivers maneuver the vehicle, they determine the appropriate steering angle and acceleration based on the predictable trajectories of surrounding vehicles. Likewise, it is required that the automated driving control algorithm should determine the desired steering angle and acceleration with the consideration of not only the current states of surrounding vehicles but also their predictable behaviors. Then, in order to guarantee safety to the possible change of traffic situation surrounding the subject vehicle during a finite time-horizon, we define a safe driving envelope with the consideration of probable risky behaviors among the predicted probable behaviors of surrounding vehicles over a finite prediction horizon. For the control of the vehicle while satisfying the safe driving envelope and system constraints over a finite prediction horizon, a MPC approach is used in this research. At each time step, MPC based controller computes the desired steering angle to keep the subject vehicle in the safe driving envelope over a finite prediction horizon. Simulation and experimental tests show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

의사결정나무기법을 이용한 건설재해 사전 예측모델 개발 (Prediction Model of Construction Safety Accidents using Decision Tree Technique)

  • 조예림;김연철;신윤석
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2017
  • 건설 산업 재해 예방을 위한 연구와 노력에도 불구하고 최근 7년간 국내 건설업 재해자 수가 꾸준히 증가했다. 건설현장에서 발생하는 재해는 다른 산업군에 비해 강도 높은 재해가 발생할 가능성이 크기 때문에 근본적으로 예방할 수 있는 방법이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 모형에 대한 해석이 쉽고 변수의 상호작용 효과 해석이 용이한 의사결정나무 기법을 활용하여 건설재해 예측 모델을 제안하였다. 제안된 건설 재해 사전 예측 모델의 현장 활용 가능성을 평가하기 위하여 판별분석기법 기반 모델과의 건설 재해 예측 정확도를 비교하였다. 검토 결과 판별분석 모델에 비해 의사결정나무 모델의 누적 예측 정확도가 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 의사결정나무 기법을 이용한 모델은 시간이 지남에 따라 데이터가 증가하기 때문에 예측 정확도가 더욱 높아지게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제안된 건설 재해 예측 모델이 건설현장에서 활용된다면 효과적으로 안전 관리를 할 수 있고, 건설업 재해율 감소에도 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

빅데이터로부터 추출된 주변 환경 컨텍스트를 반영한 딥러닝 기반 거리 안전도 점수 예측 모델 (A Deep Learning-based Streetscapes Safety Score Prediction Model using Environmental Context from Big Data)

  • 이기인;강행봉
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제20권8호
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    • pp.1282-1290
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    • 2017
  • Since the mitigation of fear of crime significantly enhances the consumptions in a city, studies focusing on urban safety analysis have received much attention as means of revitalizing the local economy. In addition, with the development of computer vision and machine learning technologies, efficient and automated analysis methods have been developed. Previous studies have used global features to predict the safety of cities, yet this method has limited ability in accurately predicting abstract information such as safety assessments. Therefore we used a Convolutional Context Neural Network (CCNN) that considered "context" as a decision criterion to accurately predict safety of cities. CCNN model is constructed by combining a stacked auto encoder with a fully connected network to find the context and use it in the CNN model to predict the score. We analyzed the RMSE and correlation of SVR, Alexnet, and Sharing models to compare with the performance of CCNN model. Our results indicate that our model has much better RMSE and Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficient.

머신러닝을 활용한 사회 · 경제지표 기반 산재 사고사망률 상대비교 방법론 (Socio-economic Indicators Based Relative Comparison Methodology of National Occupational Accident Fatality Rates Using Machine Learning)

  • 김경훈;이수동
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2022
  • A reliable prediction model of national occupational accident fatality rate can be used to evaluate level of safety and health protection for workers in a country. Moreover, the socio-economic aspects of occupational accidents can be identified through interpretation of a well-organized prediction model. In this paper, we propose a machine learning based relative comparison methods to predict and interpret a national occupational accident fatality rate based on socio-economic indicators. First, we collected 29 years of the relevant data from 11 developed countries. Second, we applied 4 types of machine learning regression models and evaluate their performance. Third, we interpret the contribution of each input variable using Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP). As a result, Gradient Boosting Regressor showed the best predictive performance. We found that different patterns exist across countries in accordance with different socio-economic variables and occupational accident fatality rate.

The Lower Flash Points of the n-Butanol+n-Decane System

  • Dong-Myeong Ha;Yong-Chan Choi;Sung-Jin Lee
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.50-55
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    • 2003
  • The lower flash points for the binary system, n-butanol+n-decane, were measured by Pensky-Martens closed cup tester. The experimental results showed the minimum in the flash point versus composition curve. The experimental data were compared with the values calculated by the reduced model under an ideal solution assumption and the flash point-prediction models based on the Van Laar and Wilson equations. The predictive curve based upon the reduced model deviated form the experimental data for this system. The experimental results were in good agreement with the predictive curves, which use the Van Laar and Wilson equations to estimate activity coefficients. However, the predictive curve of the flash point prediction model based on the Willson equation described the experimentally-derived data more effectively than that of the flash point prediction model based on the Van Laar equation.

사례를 기반으로 한 신문 산업에서의 고객 이탈 예측 모형 구축 (Development of churn prediction model in a newspaper based on real case)

  • 양승정;이종태
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2007
  • What is CRM(Customer Relationship Management) means that planning, executing, and re-accessing the marketing strategy based on the customer character by analyzing the material related to customers. That is CRM is a strategy of customer service on the base of data. In the case of the telecommunications and a newspaper, there are restricted application of CRM, because they are provided services by paying a given amount of money within a given period of time. This paper develops CRM model(chum prediction model) that can apply to a newspaper. For model-building, real data were used which were collected from one of the major a newspaper company in Korea. Also, this paper verifies the efficient result.

부식을 고려한 콘크리트 교량의 최대 균열폭 제어 (Maximum Crack Width Control in Concrete Bridges Affected By Corrosion)

  • 조태준
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.114-121
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    • 2006
  • As one of the serviceability limit states, the prediction and control of crack width in reinforced concrete bridges or PSC bridges are very important for the design of durable structures. However, the current bridge design specifications do not provide quantitative information for the prediction and control of crack width affected by the initiation and propagation of corrosion. Considering life span of concrete bridges, an improved control equation about the crack width affected by time-dependent general corrosion is proposed. The developed corrosion and crack width control models can be used for the design and the maintenance of prestressed and non-prestressed reinforcements by varying time, w/c, cover depth, and geometries of the sections. It can also help the rational criteria for the quantitative management and the prediction of remaining life of concrete structures.

4성분계 가연성 혼합용액의 끓는점 예측 및 표현 (Prediction and Representation of Boiling Points for Combustible Solution of Quaternary Systems)

  • 김문갑;하동명;이영세
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 1998
  • MRSM(modified response surface methodology)-2 model is presented for the prediction of boiling points in combustible solution of quaternary systems. This model requires only normal boiling points of pure substances and group-group parameters which are based on the group-group concepts without the use of experimental data under consideration. By means of this methodology, it is possible to predict the boiling points of the combustible mixture of quaternary systems by plotting of isothermal lines using computer graphics. The proposed methodology has been tested and compared successfully with reported boiling points in journals for the combustible solution of quaternary systems. It is hoped eventually that this methodology will permit prediction of the flash point and flammability limit for the combustible mixture of multicomponent systems.

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항공기용 유압 시스템 신뢰도 및 정비도 분석 프로세스 고찰 (A Study on the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Process for Aircraft Hydraulic System)

  • 한창환;김근배
    • 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2016
  • An aircraft must be designed to minimize system failure rate for obtaining the aircraft safety, because the aircraft system failure causes a fatal accident. The safety of the aircraft system can be predicted by analyzing availability, reliability, and maintainability of the system. In this study, the reliability and the maintainability of the hydraulic system are analysed except the availability, and therefore the reliability and the maintainability analysis process and the results are presented for a helicopter hydraulic system. For prediction of the system reliability, the failure rate model presented in MIL-HDBK-217F is used, and MTBF is calculated by using the Part Stress Analysis Prediction and quality/temperature/environmental factors described in NPRD-95 and MIL-HDBK-338B. The maintainability is predicted by FMECA(Failure Mode, Effect & Criticality Analysis) based on MIL-STD-1629A.

철도건널목의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구 (Development and Application of Accident Prediction Model for Railroad At-Grade Crossings)

  • 조성훈;서선덕
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.429-434
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    • 2001
  • Rail crossings pose special safety concerns for modern railroad operation with faster trains. More than ninety percent of train operation-related accidents occurs on at-grade crossings. Surest countermeasure for this safety hazard is to eliminate at-grade crossings by constructing over/under pass or by closing them. These eliminations usually require substantial amount of investment and/or heavy public protest from those affected by them. Thorough and objective analysis are usually required, and valid accident prediction models are essential to the process. This paper developed an accident prediction model for Korean at-grade crossings. The model utilized many important factors such as guide personnel, highway traffic, train frequency, train sight distance, and number of tracks. Developed model was validated with actual accident data.

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