• 제목/요약/키워드: S-chain Model

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삼각분할표 자료에서 베이지안 모형을 이용한 예측 (Prediction in run-off triangle using Bayesian linear model)

  • 이주미;임요한;한규섭;이경은
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.411-423
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문은 삼각 분할표 자료의 예측문제에 있어 Verrall (1990)의 발생연도효과와 경과년도효과만 있는 베이지안 선형모형을 절대연도효과가 있는 모형으로 확장한 모형을 제시하고 이에 대한 추정 방법으로 마르코프 연쇄 몬테칼로 방법을 제안한다. 제안된 모형과 추정 방법은 세 가지 실제 예를 통하여 기존의 방법들에 비해서 일반적으로 작은 상대 예측오차를 제공함을 보였다.

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항공관광종사원의 공항서비스 정책수용성 인식이 고객가치에 미치는 영향 (A Study of the Effect of Aviation·Tourism Industry Employees' Airport Service Policy Acceptance on Creating Customer's Value)

  • 최성수;김광옥;최진영;김현득
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2017
  • Aviation/tourism industry has a unique characteristic of high inter-dependance between customer and service-provider. It is the mental condition of service-provider that could influence on the attitude of the service-provider. Thus, it is important to manage the mental condition of the service employees to enhance a company's financial performance. This paper tries to analyze the combined model of both policy acceptance and service profit chain(SPC) models. First, service policy acceptance model tells how the service policy acceptance, which consists of policy compliance, trust, participation and policy failure, would influence on SPC model. According to empirical research, it was found that both the employees' policy compliance and the policy trust have a positive significant impact on their participation on service policy. In the policy acceptance model, the employee's voluntary participation based on their trust and compliance of the policy was proven to have a positive effect on increasing job satisfaction and customer orientation. Regarding SPC model, their participation in the policy had the strongest impact among variables on customer orientation. Such results implies the employees' participation on the policy could become the starting point to enhance the customer value.

베이지언 추론에 기반한 확률론적 피로수명 평가 (Stochastic Fatigue Life Assesment based on Bayesian-inference)

  • 박명진;김유일
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제56권2호
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2019
  • In general, fatigue analysis is performed by using deterministic model to estimate the optimal parameters. However, the deterministic model is difficult to clearly describe the physical phenomena of fatigue failure that contains many uncertainty factors. With regard to this, efforts have been made in this research to compare with the deterministic model and the stochastic models. Firstly, One deterministic S-N curve was derived from ordinary least squares technique and two P-S-N curves were estimated through Bayesian-linear regression model and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Secondly, the distribution of Long-term fatigue damage and fatigue life were predicted by using the parameters obtained from the three methodologies and the long-term stress distribution.

효과적인 팀워크를 위한 프랜차이즈 호텔 조리장의 피그말리온 리더십 (The Chain Hotel Chef's Pygmalion Leadership for Effective Teamwork of Cooks)

  • 구동우;이새미;장해진
    • 한국프랜차이즈경영연구
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - In the past, the chain hotel chefs only serve food to their customers. However recently, the hotel chefs play a pivotal role in hotel including considering various customer preferences, safety and nutrition of food, and increasing profits through effective human resource management and inventory control. With the change of the chain hotel chef's' roles, pygmalion leadership, one of new leadership styles, focuses on the effect that leader's positive expectation let subordinates have motivation and more engage in work. This study investigates the effect of chain hotel chef's pygmalion leadership on leader trust and organizational trust. Research design, data, and methodology - This study was to investigate the structural relationships among chain hotel restaurant chefs' pygmalion leadership, hotel restaurant cooks' leader trust, organizational trust, and teamwork, and how leader trust and organizational trust play mediating roles in the relationship between pygmalion leadership and teamwork. In this model, pygmalion leadership includes 4 dimensions: Climate, Feedback, Input, and Output. Data were collected using self-administered questionnaire survey on cooks of Deluxe hotel restaurants located in Seoul and Gyonggi-Do. The samples for data analyses were 243 excepting unusable responses. Result - The findings can be summarized as follows: First, climate and feedback had a positive effect on leader trust, respectively. Second, feedback and output had a statistically positive effect on organizational trust, respectively. Third, leader trust had positive effects on organizational trust and teamwork. Fourth, organizational trust had a significant effect on teamwork. Conclusions - As a chain hotel chef treats his/her staffs sincerely, they will be more engaged in work by establishing trust in their leader. Ultimately, it leads to higher sales profit and customer satisfaction. In addition, a hotel can encourage chefs and other staffs to treat each other as if the student-instructor relations, not just commanding staffs. Then, cooks build up their trust to their leader and organization for its sustained growth and development, and the internal bond in organization including teamwork is strengthened. Therefore, to strengthen teamwork and organizational trust, there should be active communication, knowledge sharing, goal sharing, and cooperation between chefs and cooks.

DTN에서 Markov Chain을 이용한 노드의 이동 예측 기법 (Prediction method of node movement using Markov Chain in DTN)

  • 전일규;이강환
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.1013-1019
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 Delay Tolerant Network(DTN)에서 Markov chain으로 노드의 속성 정보를 분석하여 노드의 이동경로를 예측하는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 기존 DTN에서의 예측기반 라우팅 기법은 노드가 미리 정해진 스케줄에 따라 이동하게 된다. 이러한 네트워크에서는 스케줄을 예측할 수 없는 환경에서 노드의 신뢰성이 낮아지는 문제가 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위해 노드의 속성 정보를 Markov chain을 적용하고 일정 구간에서 시간에 따른 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 CMCP(Context-awareness Markov-Chain Prediction)알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 노드의 속성 정보 중 노드의 속력과 방향성을 근사한 후 Markov chain을 이용하여 제한된 주기와 버퍼의 범위에서 확률전이 매트릭스를 생성하여 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 알고리즘이다. 주어진 모의실험 환경에서 노드의 이동 경로 예측을 통해 중계 노드를 선정하여 라우팅 함으로써 메시지 전송 지연 시간이 감소하고 전송률이 증가함 보여주고 있다.

사이버 킬체인 기반 사이버 지휘통제체계 방어 및 공격 모델 연구 (A Study on Defense and Attack Model for Cyber Command Control System based Cyber Kill Chain)

  • 이정식;조성영;오행록;한명묵
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2021
  • 사이버 킬체인 (Cyber Kill Chain)은 기존의 군사적 용어인 킬체인 (Kill Chain)에서 유래한다. 킬체인은 "파괴를 요구하는 군사 표적을 탐지하는 것에서 파괴하는 것까지의 연속적이고 순환적인 처리 과정 또는 그것을 몇 개의 구분된 행위로 나눈 것"을 의미한다. 킬체인은 핵무기나 미사일과 같이 위치가 변화하고 위험성이 커서 즉각적인 대응을 요구하는 시한성 긴급 표적을 효과적으로 다루기 위해 기존의 작전절차를 발전시켰으며, 방어자가 파괴를 필요로 하는 핵무기나 미사일이 타격점에 도달하기까지의 여러 과정 중 한 단계라도 제 기능을 발휘하지 못하게 하여 공격자가 의도한 목적을 달성하지 못하도록 무력화하는 군사적 개념에서 시작되었다고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 사이버 킬체인의 기본 개념은 사이버 공격자가 수행하는 공격은 각 단계로 구성되어 있으며, 사이버 공격자는 각 단계가 성공적으로 수행되어야 공격 목표를 달성할 수 있으며, 이를 방어 관점에서 보았을 때 각 단계에서 세부적으로 대응 절차를 마련하여 대응하면 공격의 체인 (chain)이 끊어지므로 공격자의 공격을 무력화하거나 지연시킬 수 있다고 본다. 또한 공격 관점에서 보았을 때 각 단계에서 구체적인 대응 절차를 마련하면 공격의 체인이 성공하여 공격대상을 무력화시킬수 있다. 사이버 지휘통제체계는 방어와 공격에 모두 적용되는 체계로 방어시 적의 킬체인을 무력화하기 위한 방어 대응 방안을 제시하여야 하며 공격시에는 적을 무력화하기 위한 각 단계별 구체적인 절차를 제시하여야 한다. 따라서 본 논문은 사이버 지휘통제체계의 방어 및 공격 관점의 사이버 킬체인 모델을 제안하였으며, 또한 방어 측면의 사이버 지휘통제제계의 위협 분류/분석/예측 프레임워크를 제시하였다.

The Effect of Information Technology on Arms-Length Buyer-Supplier Relationship

  • Kim, Soo-W.
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2008
  • This paper posits that arm's length buyer-supplier relationship as the intermediate type between market exchange relations and strategic partnership might be advisable, and information technology may have a role as a mechanism actualizing the effects of such arm's length relationship by strategic supply-line diversification. Based on the theoretical analysis on interactive feedback relationships among IT level, buyer-supplier relationships, and supply chain structure, we suggest a set of advisable buyer-supplier relationship type for efficient supply chain management. Also, doing so would be helpful in suggesting a dynamic IT investment and adoption model appropriate for the establishment of productive buyer-supplier relationship, and further in providing theoretical foundations and practical guidelines on the role and function of B-to-B E-commerce for efficient SC integration.

Exploring the Meaning of College Students' Leisure Activity: Means-end Chain Analysis of Social Network Game Playing

  • Han, Ju Hyoung
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.18-22
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    • 2014
  • Social network games (SNGs), a rapidly growing online game genre, are built and played on social network sites. SNGs provide an online world for enjoying leisure time and interpersonal communication, and an increasing numbers of college students are involved in such game-playing as a leisure time activity. Despite the popularity, relatively few studies have been conducted to investigate the nature of game players, especially the meaning of such leisure time behavior by college students. This paper's aim was to explore a subjective meaning structure of online social network game play. The means-end chain model was used to link attributes of SNGs to the underlying values of game playing as a leisure activity. The results revealed two emerging end-values: the need for bridging and a sense of belonging. This study sheds light on the meaning of college students' leisure activities when playing social network games.

The Development of the Distribution/VMI Game Based on Theory of Constraints

  • Zheng, Kai-Wen;Tsai, Chih-Hung;Li, Rong-Kwei;Chen, Ching-Piao;Tsai, Shih-Chieh
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.53-76
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    • 2009
  • As the flourish of today's supply chain, the traditional model of replenishment will cause accumulation of excessive inventory to the retailers and customers, or cause shortages and inability to meet the demands. To solve this problem, Theory of Constraints (TOC) proposed the replenishment model of demand-pull, combined with the establishment of factory-ware-house to achieve performance improvement. In the absence of empirical research, this study applied the Bean Game developed by Dr. Goldratt to design a supply chain system for different scenarios, in order to allow players and managers better understanding and supporting the TOC replenishment method through the operations of the game.

Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Estimating the Economy Model

  • Lee, Seung Moon
    • 통합자연과학논문집
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    • 제1권2호
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    • pp.127-132
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    • 2008
  • This project follows the heterogeneous agent market segmented model of Landon-Lane and Occhino (2007) with using Korean data, M1 and GDP deflator from 1882:I to 2007:II. This paper estimates parameters with Monte Carlo Markov Chain. The fraction of traders, ${\lambda}$, in Korea is 15.64%. The quarterly preferences discount factor's, ${\beta}$, posterior mean is 0.9922. The posterior mean of the inverse of the elasticity of the labor supply to the real wage, ${\varphi}$, is 0.0316. The elasticity of the labor supply to the real wage has a very large value. By Hansen (1985) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) and Cooley and Hansen (1989), models having large elasticity of the aggregate labor supply better match macroeconomic data.

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