Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea (대한조선학회논문집)

The Society of Naval Architects of Korea (대한조선학회)
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Stochastic Fatigue Life Assesment based on Bayesian-inference

베이지언 추론에 기반한 확률론적 피로수명 평가

  • Park, Myong-Jin (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, INHA University) ;
  • Kim, Yooil (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, INHA University)
  • 박명진 (인하대학교 공과대학 조선해양공학과) ;
  • 김유일 (인하대학교 공과대학 조선해양공학과)
  • Received : 2018.10.10
  • Accepted : 2018.11.29
  • Published : 2019.04.20
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Abstract

In general, fatigue analysis is performed by using deterministic model to estimate the optimal parameters. However, the deterministic model is difficult to clearly describe the physical phenomena of fatigue failure that contains many uncertainty factors. With regard to this, efforts have been made in this research to compare with the deterministic model and the stochastic models. Firstly, One deterministic S-N curve was derived from ordinary least squares technique and two P-S-N curves were estimated through Bayesian-linear regression model and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Secondly, the distribution of Long-term fatigue damage and fatigue life were predicted by using the parameters obtained from the three methodologies and the long-term stress distribution.

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References

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