• Title/Summary/Keyword: S-RAT 모형

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Debris Flow Simulation using Predictive Rainfall Information(HQPF) (예측강우정보(HQPF)를 이용한 토석류 모의)

  • Oh, Cheong Hyeon;Kang, Dong Ho;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.336-336
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    • 2020
  • 기후변화와 기상이변으로 전 세계적으로 태풍 및 국지성 집중호우가 급증하고 있으며, 그로 인한 홍수피해와 2차 피해 발생이 증가하고 있어 이에 대한 정량적인 분석이 필요하다. 또한 서울 우면산, 춘천 마적산, 삼척 신남마을 등 토석류로 인한 피해가 증가하여 많은 인명피해와 재산피해가 발생하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 특정지역에서 강우량이 유출량에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 강우로 인해 발생하는 2차 피해인 토석류로 인한 피해를 분석하고자 하였다. 2019년 10월 토석류 피해가 있었던 삼척시 신남마을을 분석지역으로 설정하였으며, 분석에 이용된 강우사상은 실제로 피해를 일으켰던 태풍 '미탁' 사상과 기상청이 제공하는 정량적 예측강우(QPF)를 머신러닝의 XGBoost 기법을 적용하여 개발한 정량적 수문 예측 강우(HQPF)를 이용하였다. 강우-유출모형(S-RAT)으로 강우사상에 따른 유출량과 첨두유출량을 산정하였고, 모델 커플링 기법으로 2차원 토석류 수치모형(RAMMS)을 통해 토석류의 피해규모를 비교 분석하였다.

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A Study on the Risk Impact Map Development of Considering the Debris flow Hazard and Impact Level (토석류 발생가능성 및 시설안전성을 고려한 토석류 위험지도작성에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Dong Ho;Lee, Suk Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.296-296
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    • 2019
  • 전 세계적으로 기후변화로 인한 국지성 집중호우 및 태풍으로 인한 피해가 지속적으로 발생하고 있으며, 그에 따른 2차 피해인 산사태 및 토석류 피해 또한 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 최근 국내의 산사태 및 토석류에 대한 선행연구는 지속적으로 수행되고 있으나, 산사태 및 토석류 위험성이 높은 구간, 즉, 발생기작을 판단할 수 있도록 지표화 해놓은 것이며, 현재 피해예측지도 및 피해 하류부의 시설물을 고려한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 강우-유출모형인 S-RAT모형 및 토석류 수치해석 프로그램 RAMMS 모형을 이용하여 산사태 및 토석류 피해를 극대화 시키는 인자인 토석유동심(H), 토석유속(V)을 이용하여 토석류피해예측지도를 작성하였으며, 피해 하류부의 시설물을 건물 유형별 시설물의 중요도로 구분하였다. 또한 작성된 피해예측지도 및 시설물 중요도를 중첩하여 위험성 지도를 제시하였다.

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Nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 비정상성 I-D-F 곡선 작성)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Lee, Suk Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.94-94
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    • 2015
  • 기후변화와 변동으로 인한 기상이변이 갈수록 심각해지고 발생 빈도도 잦아짐에 따라 현재의 배수관련 사회기반시설(Drainage Infrastructure)이 이런 문제에 대처할 준비가 잘되어 있는지에 대해 의문점이 제기되고 있다. 현재의 배수관련 사회기반시설의 설계는 이른바 정상성(stationarity)이라는 가정 하에 강우의 강도(Intensity), 지속기간(Duration), 빈도(Frequency)의 관계를 나타내는 I-D-F 곡선을 주로 이용하기 때문에 기후변화로 인한 극치사상(extremes)의 유의한 변화를 나타낼 수가 없다는 한계점을 가지고 있다. 그러나 기후변화는 극한기후(climatic extremes)의 특성을 비정상성(nonstationarity)이라 일컫는 개념으로 바꾸고 있기 때문에 배수관련 기반구조 설계(Drainage Infrastructuredesign)의 기본 가정의 하나인 강우 통계 매개변수의 정상성은 기후변화의 시대에는 더는 유효하지 않을 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 비정상성을 고려하여 조건부 GEV 분포를 이용하여 지속시간별 확률강우량 과비정상성 I-D-F 곡선식을 유도하였다. 또한, 분포형 홍수유출모형인 S-RAT(Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool)을 이용하여 강우강도의 증가가 설계 최대유량(design peak flows)에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과 지속기간별 차이는 있었지만 고빈도로 갈수록 전반적으로 현행 I-D-F 곡선이 실질적으로 극한강수를 과소평가하고 있으며 정상성 I-D-F 곡선 작성 방법이 기후변화의 배수관련 기반구조물의 능력설계에 적합지 않을 수도 있음을 제시하였다.

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Multiple Binding Affinities for Muscarinic Acetylcholine Receptors in Rat Brain (흰쥐 뇌내(腦內)의 무수카린성 콜린 수용체의 이질성(異質性))

  • Lee, Jong-Hwa;El-Fakahany, Esam E.
    • The Korean Journal of Pharmacology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 1987
  • We investigated the binding properties of $(^3H)$ QNB and $(^3H)$ NMS to mAchR to elucidate the characterstics of mAchR in rat brain by using two different preparations (homogemates & intact brain cell aggregates). The binding properties of both ligands demonstrated high affinity and saturability in both experiments, however $(^3H)$ QNB showed a significantly higher maximal binding capacity than tha ot $(^3H)$ NMS 1. In rat brain homogenates; Displacement of both lignands with several mAchR antagonists resulted in competition curves in accoradnce with the law of massaction for QNB, atropine & scopolamine in thie preparation, also a similar profile was found for the quaternary ammonium analogs of atropine & scopolamine (methyl atropine & methylscopolamine) when $(^3H)$ NMS was used to label the receptors in rat brain. But when these hydrophillic antagonists were used to displace $(^3H)$ QNB, they showed interaction with high- and low-affinity binding sites in brain homogenates. Pirenzepine, the nonclassical mAchR antagonist, was able to displace both ligands from binding sites in this preparation. 2. In intact rat brain cell aggregates; Intact bain cell aggregates were used to elucidate the binding characteristics of $(^3H)$ NMS to mAchR in rat. The magnitude of binding of this ligand was related linearly to the amount of cell protein in the binding assay with a high ratio of total to nonspecific binding. mAchR antagonists displaced specific $(^3H)$ NMS binding according to the law of mass-action, while it was possible to resolve displacement curves using mAchR agonist into high-& low-affinity component. 3. Our results indicate that more hydrophilic receptor ligand $(^3H)$ QNB, displacement experiments in both tissues demonstrated that the lipid solubility of a particulr mAchR ligand might play an important role in determining its profile of binding to the mAchR, and the concentrations of mAchR in rat brain are both on the cell surface (membrane-bound receptor) and in the intracelluar membrane (intermembrane-bound receptor). 4. The results are discussed in terms of the usefulness of dissociated intact rat brain cells in studying mAchR in central nervous system.

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Impacts assessment of Climate changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios II. Impacts assessment of hydrologic cycle changes in Yalu River (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 II. 압록강유역의 미래 수문순환 변화 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

On Study of Runoff Analysis Using Satellite Information (위성자료를 이용한 유출해석에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dong Ho;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2021
  • This study intended to assess the reliability of topographic data using satellite imaging data. The topographical data using actual instrumentation data and satellite image data were established and applied to the rainfall-leak model, S-RAT, and the topographical data and outflow data were compared and analyzed. The actual measurement data were collected from the Water Resources Management Information System (WAMIS), and satellite image data were collected from MODIS observation sensors mounted on Terra satellites. The areas subject to analysis were selected for two rivers with more than 80% mountainous areas in the Han River basin and one river basin with more than 7% urban areas. According to the analysis, the difference between instrumentation data and satellite image data was up to 50% for peak floods and up to 17% for flood totals in rivers with high mountains, but up to 13% for peak floods and up to 4% for flood totals. The biggest difference in the video data is Landuse, which shows that MODIS satellite images tend to be recognized as cities up to 60% or more in urban streams compared to WAMIS instrumentation data, but MODIS satellite images are found to be less than 5% error in forest areas.

The Level of Supporting Fathers' Care Work in 15 OECD Countries and its Implications for Korean Family Policy (부모.부성휴가를 통해본 남성 돌봄 노동참여 지원정책 비교 : 경제협력개발기구 15개국을 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Hong-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.223-249
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this paper is to classify OECD countries in regard to levels of supporting fathers' care work. Several meaningful conclusions were reached. First, examining the level of supporting fathers' care work and the strength of the traditional bread-winner model, OECD countries can be classified into 5 different clusters. The result is different from the mainstream typology of welfare states and suggests the new typology of welfare states. Second, the level of supporting fathers' care work and the strength of the traditional bread-winner model were found to be related to total fertility rates and women's labor market participation rates. Third, in regard to the level of supporting fathers' care work, Korea was the lowest among OECD countries. This result points to one of the important reasons to the low level of total fertility rat, and low rate of women's labor market participation in Korea.

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Experimental Analysis in the Reversible and Irreversible Cerebral Ischemic Models in the Rat (백서의 가역성 및 비가역성 뇌허혈 모형의 실험적 고찰)

  • Song, Kwang Chul;Choi, Byung Yon;Kim, Seong Ho;Bae, Jang Ho;Kim, Oh Lyong;Cho, Soo Ho
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.853-860
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    • 2000
  • Objective : The purpose of our experimental study was to analysis the advantages and disadvantages in the reversible and irreversible cerebral ischemic models with rats by staining with Neutral Red(NR) solusion, 2% 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride(TTC) and Hematoxylin & Eosin(H & E). Methods : We have measured the range of cerebral infarction in the rat to get a suitable ischemic model along the object of study with and without craniectomy. With craniectomy, 9 rats were sacrificed for irreversible cerebral ischemic model by means of ligation at proximal(group I) and distal(group II), and coagulation at proximal(group III) middle cerebral artery. Also, 6 rats were sacrificed for irreversible(group IV) and reversible(group V) cerebral ischemic model using nylon thread without craniectomy. The sizes of infarction were measured by staining the coronal sections of the brain with NR solusion, TTC and H & E. Results : There are no difference of physiological parameters comparing the each group. Cerebral infarction was not observed in group II, but it's volume was largest in group IV. Disadvantages of craniectomy group(I, II, III) are the long duration of operation and cortical damage by procedure. It's advantage is confirmation of the middle cerebral artery occlusion and cessation of blood flow through the operative microscope. In case of ischemic models using nylon thread (group IV, V), it is hard to identify the interruption or recirculation of blood flow through the middle cerebral artery, but the advantage is the simplicity of operative technique which reduces the operation time and minimizes the cerebral damage due to craniectomy. Therefore, it seems important to set up the reversible and irreversible ischemic models by carefully considering advantages and disadvantages listed above. Conclusion : TTC staining seems to be effective since it reflects the histological damage sufficiently and quickly. It is hoped that researches focused on ischemic penumbra, which became popular recently, will be further carried on with use of NR staining, optical microscope and electron microscope.

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Simulated impact of land use change on runoff characteristics Using Dyna-CLUE Model (Dyna-CLUE 모형을 이용한 토지이용변화가 유출특성에 미치는 영향 모의)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Han, Woo Suk;Lee, Suk Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.90-90
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    • 2015
  • 최근 우면산 산사태 및 2011, 2012년 서울, 경기권의 집중호우로 전국에서 홍수피해가 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 이러한 홍수피해는 기후변화 및 도시화의 영향으로 미래에 더욱 빈번하게 발생할 것으로 전망된다. 홍수피해를 저감하기 위해 기후변화 재해취약성 분석, 방재지구 지정 의무화, 지역별 방재성능목표 설정 등 다양한 홍수 분석방법 및 정책이 수립?운영되고 있다. 하지만, 토지이용 변화 및 토지이용별 공간분포 고려, 미래 국토변화 데이터의 불확실성 저감, 유역단위의 홍수분석 등은 개선할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 현행 기후변화 홍수분석방법 및 정책의 개선사항을 검토하여 국토변화를 고려한 홍수분석 방법을 개발했고, 사례유역을 대상으로 적용했다. 미래 토지이용변화 및 토지의 공간적인 특성을 반영하기 위해 과거 토지이용변화 추세선, 토지이용변화 시나리오 도출, 개발제한 지역 및 입지특성을 고려한 토지이용의 공간적인 특성을 도출하여 미래 토지이용 데이터를 구축하는 방법을 제시했다. 미래 데이터의 불확실성을 저감하기 위해서는 과거 장기 강우데이터와 기후변화 시나리오 데이터를 비교하고, 보정 및 검증을 수행하는 방법을 제시했다. 이렇게 구축된 미래 데이터를 활용하여 일련의 국토변화를 고려한 홍수분석 방법을 제시했다. 홍수분석결과인 최대홍수량이 그 지역의 홍수위험은 아니지만, 현재 대비 미래의 최대홍수량 변화는 홍수 위험과 밀접한 관련이 있다. 본 연구에서 제시된 다양한 방법들을 현행 기후변화 홍수 관련 분석방법 및 정책에 포함하면, 신뢰성있는 데이터를 획득하고 향후 정량화된 홍수위험을 분석하는데 도움이 될 것으로 기대하고 있다.

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Impacts assessment of Climate change on hydrologic cycle changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios I. Development of Long-Term Runoff Model Parameter Estimation for Ungauged Basins (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 I. 미계측유역의 장기유출모형 매개변수 추정식 개발)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2019
  • Climate change on the Korean peninsula is progressing faster than the global average. For example, typhoons, extreme rainfall, heavy snow, cold, and heatwave that are occurring frequently. North Korea is particularly vulnerable to climate change-related natural disasters such as flooding and flooding due to long-term food shortages, energy shortages, and reckless deforestation and development. In addition, North Korea is classified as an unmeasured area due to political and social influences, making it difficult to obtain sufficient hydrologic data for hydrological analysis. Also, as interest in climate change has increased, studies on climate change have been actively conducted on the Korean Peninsula in various repair facilities and disaster countermeasures, but there are no cases of research on North Korea. Therefore, this study selects watershed characteristic variables that are easy to acquire in order to apply localization model to North Korea where it is difficult to obtain observed hydrologic data and estimates parameters based on meteorological and topographical characteristics of 16 dam basins in South Korea. Was calculated. In addition, as a result of reviewing the applicability of the parameter estimation equations calculated for the fifty thousand, Gangneungnamdaecheon, Namgang dam, and Yeonggang basins, the applicability of the parameter estimation equations to North Korea was very high.