• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based assessment

Search Result 2,019, Processing Time 0.039 seconds

Review of Human Reliability Analysis Methods for Railway Risk Assessment (철도 위험도 평가를 위한 인간신뢰도분석 방법 검토)

  • Jung, Won-Dea;Jang, Seung-Cheol;Kwak, Sang-Log;Kim, Jae-Whan
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2006.11b
    • /
    • pp.1140-1145
    • /
    • 2006
  • The railway human reliability analysis (R-HRA) plays a role of identifying and assessing human failure events in the framework of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the railway systems. This paper reviews three existing HRA methods including the K-HRA (THERP/ASEP-based) method, the HEART method, the RSSB-HRA method, and introduces a case study that was performed to select an appropriate method for a railway risk assessment. The case is the signal passed at danger (SPAD) events, which are caused from a variety of factors. From the case study, the strengths and limitations of each method were derived and compared with each other from the viewpoint of the applicability to the railway industry.

  • PDF

A Safety Assessment by Risk Analysis Method on Wheelchair Occupant in Frontal & Side Impact of Wheelchair Loaded Vehicle (휠체어 탑재 차량의 전방ㆍ측방 충돌시 휠체어 탑승자의 위험도 분석에 의한 안전성평가)

  • 김성민;김성재;강태건;전병호;김경훈;문무성
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.179-187
    • /
    • 2004
  • In this study, for a safety assessment of wheelchair occupant in frontal and side impact of wheelchair loaded vehicle, a sled impact test was perfumed. Each test was carried out total 6 times, by using Hybrid III 50th-percentile male dummy in light weight and electric wheelchair. We estimate MC(Motion Criteria), CIC(Combined Injury Criteria), HIC(Head Injury Criteria), HNIC(Head and Neck Injury Criteria) based on measured data. Through this study, we make an assessment of risk analysis of wheelchair occupant and wheelchair. Through this study, safety standard of wheelchair is to be evaluated.

Evaluation of Severity Measures of Accidents Associated with Industrial Machines and Devices (산업용 기계 및 기구 관련 재해강도 지표의 평가)

  • Choi, Gi Heung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-6
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study focuses on the evaluation of severity measures used for accidents associated with industrial machines and devices. In particular, duration of medical treatment, duration of work loss, number of deaths in an individual accident associated with industrial machines and devices are evaluated in various ways to assess the severity of the accident. The number of accidents with work loss of longer than 1 year as the severity measure and the number of accidents as the frequency measure appeared to be the most discriminating information and allow risk assessment based on these frequency and severity measures for grouping of industrial machines and devices. Results of such risk assessment further confirmed the re-classification of industrial machines and devices that are currently subject to safety certification (SC) and self-declaration of conformity (SDC) or selection of those machines and devices that are newly subject to SC and SDC.

Probability Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach (위험도 기반 접근법에 의한 선박 복원성의 확률 예측)

  • Long, Zhan-Jun;Jeong, Jae-Hun;Moon, Byung-Young
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.42-47
    • /
    • 2013
  • Ship stability prediction is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading. Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of ship stability. The survival probability of ships encountering with different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

Project Schedule Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Nets (베이지안넷 기반의 프로젝트 일정리스크 평가)

  • Sung, Hongsuk;Park, Chulsoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-16
    • /
    • 2016
  • The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

Assessment of Exposure to and Risk of Formaldehyde and Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5) by Time Activity Applying Real-Time Indoor and Outdoor Monitoring (실내·외 실시간 모니터링을 활용한 폼알데하이드 및 미세먼지(PM10, PM2.5)의 거주시간별 노출 및 위해도 평가)

  • Yoon, Danki;Namgoung, Sunju;Kong, Hyekwan;Hong, Hyungjin;Lim, Huibeen;Park, Sihyun;Lee, Hyewon;Lee, Jungsub;Lee, Cheolmin
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
    • /
    • v.45 no.6
    • /
    • pp.646-657
    • /
    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to suggest methods to investigate continuous monitoring of concentration levels and assess the exposure of individuals considering the actual time activity of residents for formaldehyde and particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5) in the indoor and outdoor air of a house, assess the health risks of children and adults based on the results of the exposure assessment, and provide basic data on studies for assessing exposure and health risks in Korea in the future. Methods: The concentration levels of formaldehyde and particulate matter were measured in a family home in Gyeonggi-do Province from April 25 to July 31, 2019, using electrochemical sensors (formaldehyde) and light scattering sensors (PM10, PM2.5). Risk assessment by the duration of exposure by time activity was performed by dividing between weekdays and weekends, and indoors and outdoors. Results: The greatest level of carcinogenic risk from inhaling formaldehyde was indoors during the weekdays for both children and adults. For children, the risk was at 7.5 per approximately 10,000 people, and for adults, the risk was at 4.1 per approximately 10,000 people. PM10 and PM2.5 also showed the greatest values indoors during the weekdays, with children at 1.7 people and 1.4 per approximately 100 people, respectively, and adults at 8.2 per approximately 1,000 and 1.8 per approximately 100 people, respectively. Conclusions: The risks of formaldehyde, PM10 and PM2.5 were shown to be high indoors. Therefore, consideration of exposure assesment for each indoor pollutant and management of indoor air quality is necessary.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes Foodborne Illness Caused by Consumption of Cheese (위해평가를 통한 치즈에서의 Listeria monocytogenes 식중독 발생 가능성 분석)

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.35 no.6
    • /
    • pp.552-560
    • /
    • 2020
  • Listeria monocytogenes is a highly pathogenic gram-positive bacterium that is easily isolated from cheese, meat, processed meat products, and smoked salmon. A zero-tolerance (n=5, c=0, m=0/25 g) criteria has been applied for L. monocytogenes in cheese meaning that L. monocytogenes must not be detected in any 25 g of samples. However, there was a lack of scientific information behind this criteria. Therefore, in this study, we conducted a risk assessment based on literature reviews to provide scientific information supporting the baseline and to raise public awareness of L. monocytogenes foodborne illness. Quantitative risk assessment of L. monocytogenes for cheese was conducted using the following steps: exposure assessment, hazard characterization, and risk characterization. As a result, the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes was -4.0 Log CFU/g in cheese. The consumption frequency of cheese was 11.8%, and the appropriate probability distribution for amount of cheese consumed was a Lognormal distribution with an average of 32.5 g. In conclusion, the mean of probabilities of foodborne illness caused by the consumption of cheese was 5.09×10-7 in the healthy population and 4.32×10-6 in the susceptible population. Consumption frequency has the biggest effect on the probability of foodborne illness, but storage and transportation times have also been found to affect the probability of foodborne illness; thus, management of the distribution environment should be considered important. Through this risk assessment, scientific data to support the criteria for L. monocytogenes in cheese could be obtained. In addition, we recommend that further risk assessment studies of L. monocytogenes in various foods be conducted in the future.

A study on the safety management method based on the risk assessment of KORAIL's level-crossing accidents (선진 위험도 평가 기반의 건널목사고 안전관리 전략 연구)

  • Jung, Do-Won;Wang, Jong-Bae;Lhim, Jea-Eun
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2010.06a
    • /
    • pp.1732-1750
    • /
    • 2010
  • Operation of KORAIL's level crossing is in charge of KORAIL. As taking over existing level crossing to KORAIL, they do not conduct risk assessments, so we do not know about any possibilities of inner risk. And present operation of safety of the level crossing is just regular checking of reaction and functions of safety equipments physically, we need to react to the changes of what's going on around of level crossing and incestigation of traffic flow and surrounding conditions more spontaneously. So, we have to prepare the strategies against accidents of level crossing cost-effectively based on regular risk assessments for sustainable safety improvements and overcome operational problems of present level crossing's safety. Here, we're going to investigate the level of safety level and present risk factors of the level crossing using risk assessments for accidents/error of the equipments to show operational strategies of level crossing based on risk assessments.

  • PDF