• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회B
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• pp.2026-2031
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• 2007

Hydrogen is receiving much research attention as an alternative substitute for hydrocarbon fuels these days due to its cleanliness and renewability. However, hydrogen should be used with caution because of its high propensity for leak and wide flammable range. This study deals with a situation that hydrogen leaks and then forms a flammable mixture inside 1kW class residential fuel cell. The residential fuel cell was modeled as a box-shaped chamber with vent openings at the top and bottom, filled with various components such as reformer, desulfurizer, fuel cell stack and humidifier. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to simulate the diffusion, buoyant flow and accumulation of leaked hydrogen in the modeled chamber. From the simulation, the risk region vulnerable to flame was identified and the methods to minimize such hazardous region was discussed. When the vent openings are 1% of the total surface, as the quantity of hydrogen leakage increases the risk regions increases accordingly. As the vent openings of the total surface increased from 1% to 2.3%, averaged hydrogen mole fraction is under 1% in the system.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.259-266
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• 2015

Among many energy resources, natural gas has recently received a remarkable amount of attention, particularly from the electrical generation industry. This is in part due to increasing shale gas production, providing an environment-friendly fossil fuel, and high risk of nuclear power. Because South Korea, the world's second largest LNG importing nation after Japan, has no international natural gas pipelines and relies on imports in the form of LNG, the natural gas has been traditionally procured by long term LNG contracts at relatively high price. Thus, there is a need of developing an Asian LNG trading hub, where LNG can be traded at more competitive spot prices. In a natural gas spot market, the amount of natural gas to be bought should be carefully determined considering a limited storage capacity and future pricing dynamics. In this work, the problem to find the optimal amount of natural gas in a spot market is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) in risk neutral environment and the optimal base stock policy which depends on a stage and price is established. Taking into account price and demand uncertainties, the basestock target levels are simply approximated from dynamic programming. The simulation results show that the basestock policy can be one of effective ways for procurement of LNG in a spot market.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.653-663
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• 2017

A seismic margin assessment evaluates how much margin exists for the system under beyond design basis earthquake events. Specifically, the seismic margin for the entire system is evaluated by utilizing a systems analysis based on the sub-system and component seismic fragility data. Each seismic fragility curve is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data. The systems analysis is generally performed by employing a fault tree analysis. However, the current practice has clear limitations in that it cannot deal with the uncertainties of basic components and accommodate the newly observed data. Therefore, in this paper, we present a Bayesian-based seismic margin assessment that is conducted using seismic fragility data and fault tree analysis including Bayesian inference. This proposed approach is first applied to the pooltype nuclear research reactor system for the quantitative evaluation of the seismic margin. The results show that the applied approach can allow updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level of the fault tree, and can identify critical scenarios modified due to new information. Also, given the seismic hazard information, this approach is further extended to the real-time risk evaluation. Thus, the proposed approach can finally be expected to solve the fundamental restrictions of the current method.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.541-548
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• 2013

During the administration of a construction project, various types of participants are engaged in the project. From the design phase to the maintenance phase, these participants may confront many risks. To avoid these risks, participants should utilize an insurance company or a bond company. The types of risks and liability that a construction manager may face are listed in the construction law or contract. But there are some arguments related to risk transferring and the content of risks. For this reason, construction managers must carefully consider any possible risks in the contract and the construction law. Therefore, for construction managers to deal with risks appropriately, the introduction of a legal requirement to carry professional liability insurance, a defined compensation range for damages, a method of guarantee in the event of defects, a defined compensation claim period for damage, and a method of damage claim were suggested in this study.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.445-465
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• 2020

This paper presents a study conducted with the aim of developing a model of tendering based on a technique of artificial intelligence by managing and controlling the factors of success or failure of construction projects through the evaluation of the process of invitation to tender. Aiming to solve this problem, analysis of the current environment based on SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) is first carried out. Analysis was evaluated through a case study of the construction projects in Algeria, to bring about the internal and external factors which affect the process of invitation to tender related to the construction projects. This paper aims to develop a mean to identify threats-opportunities and strength-weaknesses related to the environment of various national construction projects, leading to the decision on whether to continue the project or not. Following a SWOT analysis, novel artificial intelligence models in forecasting the project status are proposed. The basic principal consists in interconnecting the different factors to model this phenomenon. An artificial neural network model is first proposed, followed by a model based on fuzzy logic. A third model resulting from the combination of the two previous ones is developed as a hybrid model. A simulation study is carried out to assess performance of the three models showing that the hybrid model is better suited in forecasting the construction project status than RNN (recurrent neural network) and FL (fuzzy logic) models.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.233-241
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• 2017

구간 중도 절단 자료는 관측 연구에서 종종 발생되는 생존 자료의 한 유형으로 관심 있는 사건 발생 시간을 정확하게 관측할 수 없는 대신에 이를 포함한 두 관측 시점으로 구성된다. 본 연구의 목적은 경쟁 위험이 구간 중도 절단 자료에서 발생될 경우, 두 그룹의 누적 발생 함수를 비교하기 위한 검정 통계량을 제시하는 것이다. 특히 본 연구에서는 다중 대체 방법을 통해 생성된 자료를 이용하여 검정력과 유의 수준을 구하고자 한다. 모의실험을 통해 제안한 방법이 다양한 경우에서 적절한 결과를 보이는지 검토하였으며 실제 자료 분석의 예로 남녀 그룹의 HIV 발생 함수의 차이를 비교하기 위해 제안한 방법을 적용하였다.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제11권8호
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• pp.1051-1058
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• 2008

영상처리와 통신 기술의 진보는 통합된 시스템의 일부분으로써 긴급 차량 우선권과 통행 우선 방법 모두를 수용하기 위한 현행 교통 신호 제어기들과 차량 탐지 기술을 가능하게 만들고 있다. 횡단보도에서 현행 교통 신호제어는 고정된 신호 주기에 따라 변하도록 구성되어 있다. 고정된 신호 주기의 신호제어 체계는 통행량이 없는 상황에서도 일정한 신호주기가 주어지기 때문에 상대적으로 교통량이 많은 곳에서는 해당 진행 신호가 부여될 때까지 대기해야 한다. 이러한 대기 시간은 신호 위반에 따른 교통사고의 위험과 교통체증을 유발하게 된다. 본 논문에서는 교통사고의 위험과 교통 체증을 해소하기 위한 방안으로 객체 검출영상을 통하여 현장상황에 맞게 우선적으로 신호가 부여될 수 있도록 적응형 우선순위 교통신호 제어 시스템을 설계하고 시뮬레이션 하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.471-488
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• 2018

In this paper, we propose extending proportional hazards frailty models to allow a discrete distribution for the frailty variable. Having zero frailty can be interpreted as being immune or cured. Thus, we develop a new survival model induced by discrete frailty with zero-inflated power series distribution, which can account for overdispersion. This proposal also allows for a realistic description of non-risk individuals, since individuals cured due to intrinsic factors (immunes) are modeled by a deterministic fraction of zero-risk while those cured due to an intervention are modeled by a random fraction. We put the proposed model in a Bayesian framework and use a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of posterior distribution. A simulation study is conducted to assess the proposed model and the computation algorithm. We also discuss model selection based on pseudo-Bayes factors as well as developing case influence diagnostics for the joint posterior distribution through ${\psi}-divergence$ measures. The motivating cutaneous melanoma data is analyzed for illustration purposes.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.17-22
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• 2009

Reliability analyses were performed to quantify the risk in axially loaded large-scale pile foundations in consideration of pile-soil interaction and uncertainties on various design variables. The finite difference method based on an equivalent soil spring model and a load transfer method and Monte Carlo simulation method are integrated in the framework of reliabilty analysis. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed method in the safety assessment of axially loaded pile-soil system was verified using a realistic example. Since the proposed method can explicitly consider uncertainties in various design variables, and quantify failure probability of a pile foundation, it can be used to estimate risk, to obtain basic informations for life cycle cost analysis, and to develop code requirements for a reliability-based design of pile foundations.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2018년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.122-123
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• 2018

Recently, CM at Risk delivery system(CM@R) that could solve the problems of Design Bid Build delivery(DBB) system has been emerging. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the contractor carries out the construction within the GMP. In CM @ R, the construction company with expertise in construction participates from the design stage to reflects the construction know-how in the design. On the other hand, the modification design frequently occurs due to the change of the construction cost when negotiating the GMP. In addition, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. This study proposes a probabilistic GMP estimation method applying MCS to the BIM - based cost prediction model, in order to extract the accurate quantity information when estimating the GMP and to cope with the change of the construction cost inherent in uncertainty.