• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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A Design of Helicopter Control Law Rapid Prototyping Process Using HETLAS (HETLAS를 활용한 헬리콥터 비행제어 법칙 Rapid Prototyping 프로세스 설계)

  • Yang, Chang Deok;Jung, Ho-Che;Kim, Chang-Joo;Kim, Chong-Sup;Kim, Cheol-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.731-738
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    • 2015
  • The rapid prototyping process and development tool which enable the control law evaluation efficiently are needed to minimize the development cycle, cost and risk of aircraft flight control system. This paper describes a development process that integrates the designed control law into HETLAS to evaluate simulation effectively using nonlinear mathematical models. The desktop engineering simulator was developed using HETLAS for the piloted simulation evaluation of a various control modes and the procedure was developed, which quickly integrates the HETLAS into HQS(Handling Quality Simulator) and HILS(Hardware In the Loop Simulation) environments. This paper presents a rapid prototyping process using HETLAS that significantly shortens the integration process of the control law into the nonlinear math model, HETLAS, and allows the control law designs to be quickly tested in the piloted simulation and HILS environments.

Optimized Feature Selection using Feature Subset IG-MLP Evaluation based Machine Learning Model for Disease Prediction (특징집합 IG-MLP 평가 기반의 최적화된 특징선택 방법을 이용한 질환 예측 머신러닝 모델)

  • Kim, Kyeongryun;Kim, Jaekwon;Lee, Jongsik
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2020
  • Cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (CCD) account for 24% of the causes of death to Koreans and its proportion is the highest except cancer. Currently, the risk of the cardiovascular disease for domestic patients is based on the Framingham risk score (FRS), but accuracy tends to decrease because it is a foreign guideline. Also, it can't score the risk of cerebrovascular disease. CCD is hard to predict, because it is difficult to analyze the features of early symptoms for prevention. Therefore, proper prediction method for Koreans is needed. The purpose of this paper is validating IG-MLP (Information Gain - Multilayer Perceptron) evaluation based feature selection method using CCD data with simulation. The proposed method uses the raw data of the 4th ~ 7th of The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). To select the important feature of CCD, analysis on the attributes using IG-MLP are processed, finally CCD prediction ANN model using optimize feature set is provided. Proposed method can find important features of CCD prediction of Koreans, and ANN model could predict more accurate CCD for Koreans.

Novel Collision Warning System using Neural Networks (신경회로망을 이용한 새로운 충돌 경고 시스템)

  • Kim, Beomseong;Choi, Baehoon;An, Jhonghyun;Hwang, Jaeho;Kim, Euntai
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.392-397
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    • 2014
  • Recently, there are many researches on active safety system of intelligent vehicle. To reduce the probability of collision caused by driver's inattention and mistakes, the active safety system gives warning or controls the vehicle toward avoiding collision. For the purpose, it is necessary to recognize and analyze circumstances around. In this paper, we will treat the problem about collision risk assessment. In general, it is difficult to calculate the collision risk before it happens. To consider the uncertainty of the situation, Monte Carlo simulation can be employed. However it takes long computation time and is not suitable for practice. In this paper, we apply neural networks to solve this problem. It efficiently computes the unseen data by training the results of Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, we propose the features affects the performance of the assessment. The proposed algorithm is verified by applications in various crash scenarios.

A Study on the Presentation of Entrance Surface Dose Model using Semiconductor Dosimeter, General Dosimeter, Glass Dosimeter: Focusing on Comparative Analysis of Effective Dose and Disease Risk through PCXMC 2.0 based on Monte Carlo Simulation (반도체 선량계, 일반 선량계, 유리 선량계를 이용한 입사표면선량 모델 제시에 관한 연구: 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기반의 PCXMC 2.0을 통한 유효선량과 발병 위험도의 비교분석을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Jun-Ho;Lee, Kyung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2018
  • One of the purposes of radiation protection is to minimize stochastic effects. PCXMC 2.0 is a Monte Carlo Simulation based program and makes it possible to predict effective dose and the probability of cancer development through entrance surface dose. Therefore, it is especially important to measure entrance surface dose through dosimeter. The purpose of this study is to measure entrance surface dose through semiconductor dosimeter, general dosimeter, glass dosimeter, and to compare and analyze the effective dose and probability of disease of critical organs. As an experimental method, the entrance surface dose of skull, chest, abdomen was measured per dosimeter and the effective dose and the probability of cancer development of critical organs per area was evaluated by PCXMC 2.0. As a result, the entrance surface dose per area was different in the order of a general dosimeter, a semiconductor dosimeter, and a glass dosimeter even under the same condition. Base on this analysis, the effective dose and probability of developing cancer of critical organs were also different in the order of a general dosimeter, a semiconductor dosimeter, and a glass dosimeter. In conclusion, it was found that the effective dose and the risk of diseases differ according to the dosimeter used, even under the same conditions, and through this study it was found that it is important to present an accurate entrance surface dose model according to each dosimeter.

A Study on Evaluation of Slope Stability and Range of Rockfall Hazard of Daljeon-ri Columnar Joint in Pohang, Korea (천연기념물 제415호 포항 달전리 주상절리의 사면안정성 평가 및 낙석 위험 범위 설정)

  • Kim, Jae Hwan;Kang, Mu Hwan;Kong, Dal-Yong;Jwa, Yong-Joo
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.505-515
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we evaluated the slope stability of the Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joint (Natural Monuments # 415) and calculated the maximum energy, jumping height and moving distance of rockfalls using a simulation. Based on the results, we established the range of rockfall risk. The slopes of the Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joint have dip directions of 93.79°, 131.99°, 165.54° and 259.84° from left (SW) to right (NE). Furthermore, they have a fan-like shape. The Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joints are divided into four sections depending on the dip direction. The measurement results of the discontinuous face show that zone 1 is 125, zone 2 is 261, zone 3 is 262, zone 4 is 43. The results of slope stability analyses for each section using a stereographic projection method correspond to the range of planar and toppling failure. Although it is difficult to diagnose the type of failure, risk evaluation of currently falling rocks requires further focus. The maximum movement distance of a rockfall in the simulation was approximately 66 m and the rockfall risk range was the entire area under slope. In addition, it is difficult to forecast where a rock will fall as it rolls in various directions due to topographic factors. Thus, the installation of measures to prevent falling is suggested to secure the stability based on the results of the rockfall simulations and its probabilistic analysis.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Non-thermal Processed Japanese Foods Using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 일식메뉴 중 비가열 처리 식품의 정량적 위해평가)

  • Song, Ju-Hyun;Choi, Yu-Jin;Nang, Hyo-Min;Lee, Kwang-Geun
    • Food Engineering Progress
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2009
  • The aim of this study was to control the outbreak of food pathogen through quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). We used Monte Calro Simulation (MCS) to predict contamination levels of Staphylococcus aureus on the raw materials, equipments and cook in Japanese restaurant located in Seoul. The result of sensitivity analysis showed that the most significant factor for the outbreak of food pathogen was consumption temperature and storage time. In shrimp and octopus sushi, 'consumption temperature' was the highest sensitivity value of 0.419 followed by 'storage time' of 0.374. To increase safety of sushi, consumers should have sushi as soon as possible after cooking. In sushi 'storage time after cooking' was determined as Critical Control Point (CCP). To determine Control Limit (CL), Scenario Analysis (SA) was carried out. In sushi, SA was carried out using storage time as a unit condition. Safety level of S. aureus was set lower than 5 log CFU/g. After 2 hr 'storage time' the number of S. aureus increased to 3.908 log CFU/g. Therefore, 'storage time' of sushi was set as CL in case of room temperature storage.

Automatic Control for Ship Collision Avoidance Support-II (선박충돌회피지원을 위한 자동제어-II)

  • Im, Nam-Kyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the algorithm of ship collision avoidance system and to improve its performance. The study on the algorithm of ship collision avoidance system have been carried out by many researchers. We can divide the study according to the adopted theory into two category such as 'collision risk calculation method' and 'risk area method'. It is not so difficult to find heir merit and demerit in the respective method. This study suggested newly modified model, which can overcome a limit in the two method. The suggested model is based on collision risk calculation method and suggests how to solve the threshold value problem, that is, one of the unsolved issues in collision risk calculation method. To solve that problem this study proposed new system under which the users can select appropriate threshold value according to environments such as traffic situations and weathers conditions. Simulation results of new model is schematized using 'risk area method'to examine the relationships between the two method. In addition, in case of 'collision risk method', when TCPA and DCPA are used to determine collision risk, a problem happens, that is, two ships become too close in their stem area, therefore, partial function of 'risk area method'is adopted to solve the problem in suggested model.

Quantitative Fire Risk Assessment and Counter Plans Based on FDS and GIS for National Road Bridges (FDS와 GIS를 이용한 교량 화재 위험도의 정량적 평가 및 적용방안)

  • Ann, Ho June;Park, Cheol Woo;Kim, Yong Jae;Jang, Young Ik;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.185-195
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, unexpected bridge fire accidents have increased because of augmenting the number of traffic volumes and hazardous materials by the increment in traffics and distribution business. Furthermore, in accordance with the effort of using the under space of bridges, the ratio of occupied by combustible materials like oil tanker or lorry has been increased. As a result, the occurrence of bridge fire has been growing drastically. In order to mitigate the accident of bridge fire, risk assessment of bridge fire has been studied, however, practical risk models considering safety from users' viewpoints were scarce. This study represented quantitative risk assessment model applicable to national road bridges in Korea. The primary factors with significant impacts on bridge fire accidents was chosen such as clearance height, materials of bridges, arrival time of fire truck and fire intensity. The selected factors were used for Fire Dynamics Simulation (FDS) and the peak temperature calculated by FDS in accordance with the fire duration and fire intensity. The risk assessment model in bridge fire reflected the FDS analysis results, the fire damage criteria, and the grade of fire truck arrival time was established. Response plans for bridge fire accidents according to the risk assessment output has been discussed. Lastly, distances between bridges and fire stations were calculated by GIS network analysis. Based on the suggested assessment model and methodology, sample bridges were selected and graded for the risk assessment.

Development of Risk Analysis Structure for Large-scale Underground Construction in Urban Areas (도심지 대규모 지하공사의 리스크 분석 체계 개발)

  • Seo, Jong-Won;Yoon, Ji-Hyeok;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Jee, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2010
  • Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

Application of the QUAL2E Model and Risk Assessment for Water Quality Management in Namyang Stream in Hwaong Polder (화옹유역 남양천의 수질관리를 위한 QUAL2E적용과 위해성 평가)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Kim, Hyung-Chul;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.1 s.115
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    • pp.110-118
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    • 2006
  • The Namyang Stream in Hwaong polder was planned for several water uses including recreation, where people can contact the water and consume some amount during the recreational activity. A human health risk was assessed from exposure to E. coli in the Namyang Stream, which receives partially treated wastewater from watershed. The QUAL2E model was applied to simulate stream water quality, and this model was calibrated and verified with field monitoring data. The calibration result showed a high correlation coefficient of greater than 0.9. The mean concentration of E. coli in the Namyang Stream from the QUAL2E output was in the range of 5,000 ${\sim}$ 8,000 MPN 100 mL^{-1}$, which exceeded national and international guidelines. The Beta-Poisson was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogens ingestion and the Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. The Microbial risk assessment showed that the risk ranged from 7.9 ${\times}\;10^{-6}\;to\;9.4\;{\times}10^{-6}$. Based on USEPA guidelines, the range of $10^{-6}\;to\;10^{-8}$ was considered reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure, and the risk above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be in the danger of infection. Therefore, water quality of the Namyang Stream might not be in the danger of infection although it exceeded national and international guidelines. However, it was in the range of communicable disease transmission, and thorough wastewater collection and treatment at the source is recommended to secure safe recreation water quality.