• International Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2018

Military rotorcrafts are constantly exposed to risk from bullet impacts because they operate in a battle environment. Because bullet impact damage can be deadly to crews, the fuel tanks of military rotorcraft must be designed taking extreme situations into account. Fuel tank design factors to be considered include the internal fluid pressure, the structural stress on the part impacted, and the kinetic energy of bullet strikes. Verification testing using real objects is the best way to obtain these design data effectively, but this imposes substantial burdens due to the huge cost and necessity for long-term preparation. The use of various numerical simulation tests at an early design stage can reduce the risk of trial-and-error and improve the prediction of performance. The present study was an investigation of the effects of bullet impacts on a fuel tank assembly using numerical simulation based on SPH (smoothed particle hydrodynamics), and conducted using the commercial package, LS-DYNA. The resulting equivalent stress, internal pressure, and kinetic energy of the bullet were examined in detail to evaluate the possible use of this numerical method to obtain configuration design data for the fuel tank assembly.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2018.11a
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• pp.124-125
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• 2018

Recently, risk analysis studies regarding the architecture development project have been carried out by applying probabilistic method. However, it had a limit that this studies was conducted in only an apartment. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an optimal price estimation model that can be utilized on residential officetel project by applying Monte Carlo simulation. To achieve the objective, first, the variables are selected affecting the feasibility of an officetel based on literature review. Second, causal loop diagram is constructed by arranging the relationship between variables, then the import and expense model is suggested. Third, to carry out optimized parcel price, the range limits are set for each variables then Monte Carlo simulation is performed. In the future, the developed model is expected to help decision-makers as a tool to determine both risk and feasibility of the officetel development project.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.719-728
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• 2013

Probabilistic assessment of voltage stability margin (VSM) with existence of correlated wind speeds is investigated. Nataf transformation is adopted to establish wind speed correlation (WSC) model. Based on the saddle-node bifurcation transversality condition equations and Monte Carlo simulation technique, probability distribution of VSM is determined. With correlation coefficients range low to high value, the effect of WSC on VSM is studied. In addition, two risk indexes are proposed and the possible threat caused by WSC is evaluated from the viewpoint of risk analysis. Experimental results show that the presence of correlated wind speeds is harmful to safe and stable operation of a power system as far as voltage stability is concerned. The achievement of this paper gives a detailed elaboration about the influence of WSC on voltage stability and provides a potentially effective analytical tool for modern power system with large-scale wind power sources integration.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.51-60
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• 2018

This study aims to understand crucial factors affecting user's Fintech payment service adoption. On the basis of innovation diffusion theory and prior Fintech literature, this study classifies the influence factors of users' adoption of Fintech payment service into two dimensions - service dimension containing complexity, perceived benefit, trust in service provider and user dimension containing personal innovativeness and security breach experience. The data analysis results using binary logistic regression shows the negative direct effects of perceived risk, complexity, security accident experience on user's service adoption are statistically significant. Personal innovativeness has a positive effect on user's Fintech payment service adoption. The moderation effect of security accident experience is also significant at p<0.05.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.96-105
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• 2007

This paper presents a study on the impact of variation of construction material prices on the feasibility of building projects in Vietnam. The paper makes use of Monte-Carlo simulation for financial risk analysis of net present Value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). To well illustrate the influencing, a case study is presented. The research results show that there is a strong correlation between steel prices, gold prices, and $US exchange rate. Outputs of statistics also reveal that the concurrent variation of prices of cement, steel, sand, brick, formwork and stone has strongly negative impact on NPV and IRR of building projects. The results also indicate that the proportion of steel cost to total construction cost is 17.95% which is the cause of risks for the feasibility of building project in Vietnam. The paper stresses that feasibility study of building project must integrate the impact of construction materials prices in order to mitigate risks in developing countries as Vietnam.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.111-121
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• 2007

The paper presents a reliability-based method that can capture the impact of uncertainty of seismic loadings. The proposed method incorporates probabilistic concepts into the classical limit equilibrium and the Newmark-type deformation techniques. The risk of damage is then computed by Monte Carlo simulation. Random process and RMS hazard method are introduced to produce seismic motions and also to use them in the seismic slope analyses. The geotechnical variability and sampling errors are also considered. The results of reliability analyses indicate that in a highly seismically active region, characterization of earthquake hazard is the more critical factor, and characterization of soil properties has a relatively small effect on the computed risk of slope failure and excessive slope deformations. The results can be applicable to both circular and non-circular slip surface failure modes.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.1-10
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• 2005

Policies of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark were compared and analyzed on risk assessment of contaminated sites. These countries were chosen from a feasible preliminary analysis of 18 countries of the European Union and the U. S. All the countries selected met two major criteria : I) implementation of risk assessment to determine the soil contamination and remediation targets of contaminated sites, ii) use of soil guidance values and risk assessment as complementary measures to determine soil contamination. Suggested policy improvements to Korea regarding these issues include i) legislation of a rational risk assessment methodology of contaminated sites, and ii) enactment of collaboration of risk assessment with the soil guidance values. To establish effective risk assessment legislation, additional in-depth research on social, economic and long-term effects of the proposed risk assessment methodologies, as well as the mutual consent of all parties including academia, industry, and administration will be necessary. Linking risk assessment with soil guidance values would be applicable to a site contaminated where the contaminant concentration exceeds a certain soil guidance value. In parallel, application of risk assessment to a site where a contaminant concentration is naturally different such as mining sites would be plausible. The policy suggestions above are not yet conclusive due to a lack of policy implementation, and simulation. Thus, additional research on developing risk assessment methodology is needed. Nevertheless, initiation of the suggested policy would increase the efficacy of Korean policy regarding the survey and remediation of contaminated sites.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1994.02a
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• pp.440-449
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• 1994

Current risk assessment practices largely reflect the need for a consistent set of relatively rapid, first-cut procedures to assess 'plausible upper limits' of various risks. These practices have important roles to play in 1) screening candidate hazards for initial attention and 2) directing attention to cases where moderate-cost measures to control exposures are likely to be warranted, in the absence of further extensive (and expensive) data gathering and analysis. A problem with the current practices, however, is that they have led assessors to do a generally poor job of analyzing and expressing uncertainties, fostering 'One-Number Disease' (in which everything from one's social policy position on risk acceptance to one's technical judgment on the likelihood of different cancer dose-response relationships is rolled into a single quantity). At least for analyses that involve relatively important decisions for society (both relatively large potential health risks and relatively large potential economic costs or other disruptions), we can and should at least go one further step - and that is to assess and convey both a central tendency estimate of exposure and risk as well as our more conventional 'conservative' upper-confidence-limit values. To accomplish this, more sophisticated efforts are needed to appropriately represent the likely effects of various sources of uncertainty along the casual chain from the release of toxicants to the production of adverse effects. When the effects of individual sources of uncertainty are assessed (and any important interactions included), Monte Carlo simulation procedures can be used to produce an overall analysis of uncertainties and to highlight areas where uncertainties might be appreciably reduced by further study. Beyond the information yielded by such analyses for decision-making in a few important cases, the value of doing several exemplary risk assessments in. this way is that a set of benchmarks can be defined that will help calibrate the assumptions used in the larger number of risk assessments that must be done by 'default' procedures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.691-698
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• 1997

The risk assessment model for dam and levee is applied to a river where two adjacent dams are located in the upstream of the watershed. "A" dam is proven to be safe with 200-year precipitation and unsafe with PMP condition, whereas "B" dam to be safe with 200-year precipitation and PMP condition. The computed risk considering the uncertainties of the runoff coefficient. initial water depth and relevant data of the dam and spillway turn out to be equivalent results in Monte-Carlo and AFOSM method. In levee risk model, this study addresses the uncertainty of water surface elevation by Manning's equation. Monte-Carlo simulation with the variations of Manning's roughness coefficient is calculated by assuming that it follows atriangular distribution. The model can be used for preparing flood risk maps, flood warning systems, and establishing nation's flood disaster protection plan.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.241-250
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• 2003

Rock mass is very inhomogeneous in nature and data obtained by site investigations and tests are very limited. For this reason, many uncertainties are to be included in the process of constructing structures in rock mass. In the design of a tunnel, support pattern, advance rate, and excavation method, which are important design parameters, must be determined to be optimal. However, it is not easy to determine those parameters. Moreover if those parameters are determined incorrectly, unexpected risk occurs such as decrease in the stability of a tunnel or economic loss due to the excessive supports etc. In this study, how to determine an optimal support pattern and advance rate, which are the important tunnel design parameters, is introduced based on a risk analysis. It can be confirmed quantitatively that the more supported a tunnel is, the larger reliability index becomes and the more stable the tunnel becomes. Also an optimal support pattern and advance rate can be determined quantitatively by performing a risk analysis considering construction cost and the cost of loss which can be occurred due to the collapse of a tunnel.