• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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Lahar flow simulation using Laharz_py program: Application for the Mt. Halla volcano, Jeju, Korea (Laharz_py 프로그램을 이용한 라하르 수치모의: 한라산 화산체에 적용)

  • Yun, Sung-Hyo;Chang, Cheolwoo
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.361-372
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    • 2016
  • Lahar, one of catastrophic events, has the potential to cause the loss of life and damage to infrastructure over inhabited areas. This study using Laharz_py program, was performed schematic prediction on the impact area of lahar hazards at the Mt. Halla volcano, Jeju island. In order to comprehensively address the impact of lahar for the Mt. Halla, two distinct parameters, H/L ratio and lahar volume, were selected to influence variable for Laharz_py simulation. It was carried out on the basis of numerical simulation by estimating a possible lahar volumes of 30,000, 50,000, 70,000, 100,000, 300,000, $500,000m^3$ according to H/L ratios (0.20, 0.22 and 0.25) was applied. Based on the numerical simulations, the area of the proximal hazard zone boundary is gradually decreased with increasing H/L ratio. The number of streams which affected by lahar tended to decrease with increasing H/L ratio. In the case of H/L ratio 0.20, three streams (Gwangryeong stream, Dogeun stream, Han stream) in the Jeju-si area and six streams (Gungsan stream, Hogeun stream, Seohong stream, Donghong stream, Bomok stream, Yeong stream-Hyodon stream) in the Seogwipo-si area are affected. In the case of H/L ratio 0.22, two streams (Gwangryeong stream and Han stream) in the Jeju-si area and five streams (Gungsan stream, Seohong stream, Donghong stream, Bomok stream, Yeong stream-Hyodon stream) in the Seogwipo-si area are affected. And in the case of H/L ratio 0.25, two streams (Gwangryeong stream and Han stream) in the Jeju-si area and one stream (Yeong stream-Hyodon stream) in the Seogwipo-si area are affected. The results of this study will be used as basic data to create a risk map for the direct damage that can be caused due to volcanic hazards arising from Mt. Halla.

Antibiotics Susceptability of Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolated from Single Tertiary Childrens' Hospital Since 2014 and Choice of Appropriate Empirical Antibiotics (최근 4년간 국내 단일 의료기관을 내원한 소아청소년에서 분리된 폐구균의 항생제 감수성 양상 분석)

  • Jung, Jiwon;Yoo, Ree Nar;Sung, Hungseop;Kim, Mina;Lee, Jina
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: We investigated the distribution and antimicrobial resistance of pneumococcal isolates from hospitalized children at Asan Medical Center for recent 4 years, and aimed to recommend proper choice of empirical antibiotics for pneumococcal infection. Methods: From March 2014 to May 2018, children admitted to Asan Medical Center Childrens' Hospital with pneumococcal infection were subjected for evaluation of minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) for ${\beta}-lactams$ and macrolide antibiotics. Patient's age, underlying disease, gender were retrospectively collected. Using Monte Carlo simulation model and MIC from our study, we predicted the rate of treatment success with amoxicillin treatment. Results: Sixty-three isolates were analyzed including 20.6% (n=13) of invasive isolates, and 79.4% (n=50) of non-invasive isolates; median age were 3.3 years old, and 87.3% of the pneumococcal infections occurred to children with underlying disease. Overall susceptibility rate was 49.2%, 68.2%, and 74.6% for amoxicillin, parenteral penicillin, and cefotaxime respectively. 23.8% and 9.5% of the isolates showed high resistance for amoxicillin, and cefotaxime. Only 4.8% (n=3) were susceptible to erythromycin. Monte Carlo simulation model revealed the likelihood of treatment success was 46.0% at the dosage of 90 mg/kg/day of amoxicillin. Conclusions: Recent pneumococcal isolates from pediatric patients with underlying disease revealed high resistance for amoxicillin and cefotaxime, and high resistance for erythromycin. Prudent choice of antibiotics based on the local data of resistance cannot be emphasized enough, especially in high risk patients with underlying disease, and timely vaccination should be implemented for prevention of the spread of resistant strains.

The Evaluation and Development of Head and Neck Radiation Protective Device for Chest Radiography in 10 Years Children (소아(10세) 흉부 방사선촬영에서의 두경부 방사선 방어기구 개발 및 평가)

  • Lee, Jun Ho;Lim, Hyun Soo;Lee, Seung Yeol
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.118-123
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    • 2015
  • The frequency of diagnostic radiation examinations in medical institutions has recently increased to 220 million cases in 2011, and the annual exposure dose per capita was 1.4 mSv, 51% and 35% respectively, compared to those in 2007. The number of chest radiography was found to be 27.59% of them, the highest frequency of normal radiography. In this study, we developed a shielding device to minimize radiation exposure by shielding areas of the body which are unnecessary for image interpretation, during the chest radiography. And in order to verify its usefulness, we also measured the difference in entrance surface dose (ESD) and the absorbed dose, before and after using the device, by using an international standard pediatric (10 years) phantom and a glass dosimeter. In addition, we calculated the effective dose by using a Monte Carlo simulation-based program (PCXMC 2.0.1) and evaluated the reduction ratio indirectly by comparing lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence (LAR). When using the protective device, the ESD decreased by 86.36% on average, nasal cavity $0.55{\mu}Sv$ (74.06%), thyroid $1.43{\mu}Sv$ (95.15%), oesophagus $6.35{\mu}Sv$ (78.42%) respectively, and the depth dose decreased by 72.30% on average, the cervical spine(upper spine) $1.23{\mu}Sv$ (89.73%), salivary gland $0.5{\mu}Sv$ (92.31%), oesophagus $3.85{\mu}Sv$ (59.39%), thyroid $2.02{\mu}Sv$ (73.53%), thoracic vertebrae(middle spine) $5.68{\mu}Sv$ (54.01%) respectively, so that we could verify the usefulness of the shielding mechanism. In addition, the effective dose decreased by 11.76% from $8.33{\mu}Sv$ to $7.35{\mu}Sv$ before and after wearing the device, and in LAR assessment, we found that thyroid cancer decreased to male 0.14 people (95.12%) and female 0.77 people (95.16%) per one million 10-year old children, and general cancers decreased to male 0.14 people (11.70%) and female 0.25 people (11.70%). Although diagnostic radiation examinations are necessary for healthcare such as the treatment of diseases, based on the ALARA concept, we should strive to optimize medical radiation by using this shielding device actively in the areas of the body unnecessary for the diagnosis.

Evaluation of Attenuation Rate Error on Skin Dosimeter using Monte Carlo Simulation in Photon and Electron Beam Therapy (광자선 및 전자선 치료에서 피부선량계의 측정과 시뮬레이션을 이용한 감약률 오차 평가)

  • Han, Moo-Jae;Yang, Seung-Woo;Heo, Seung-Uk;Bae, Sang-Il;Moon, Young-Min;Park, Sung-Kwang;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.841-848
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    • 2020
  • In the field of radiation therapy using photon beams and electron beams, since each patient has a different sensitivity to radiation, skin side effects may occur even at the same dose. Therefore, if there is a risk of excessive dose to the skin, a dosimeter is attached to verify whether the correct dose is being investigated. However, since the skin dosimeter checks the attachment site visually by measuring a point dose, it is difficult to confirm an accurate dose distribution. As a result, the measurement and simulation errors of the material HgI2 in the 6 MV photon beam were 3.73% and 5.24%, respectively, at the minimum thickness of 25 ㎛, and the material PbI2 was 4.73% and 5.65%, respectively. On the other hand, as a result of the 6 MeV electron beam, the measurement and simulation errors of the material HgI2 were 1.35% and 1.12%, respectively, at a minimum thickness of 25 ㎛, and the material PbI2 showed relatively low attenuation error, 1.67% and 1.20%, respectively. Therefore, it was evaluated that the thickness of the photon beam within 25 ㎛ and the electron beam within 100 ㎛ is suitable to have a reduction rate error within 5%. This study presents a new research direction for a flexible dosimeter attached to the human body that is required in clinical practice and the construction conditions of a future skin dosimeter.

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Evaluation of Electron Boost Fields based on Surgical Clips and Operative Scars in Definitive Breast Irradiation (유방보존술 후 방사선치료에서 수술 흉터와 삽입된 클립을 이용한 전자설 추가 방사선 조사야 평가)

  • Lee, Re-Na;Chung, Eun-Ah;Lee, Ji-Hye;Suh, Hyun-Suk
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.236-242
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: To evaluate the role of surgical clips and scars in determining electron boost field for early stage breast cancer undergoing conserving surgery and postoperative radiotherapy and to provide an optimal method in drawing the boost field. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients who had $4{\sim}7$ surgical clips in the excision cavity were selected for this study. The depth informations were obtained to determine electron energy by measuring the distance from the skin to chest wall (SCD) and to the clip implanted in the most posterior area of tumor bed. Three different electron fields were outlined on a simulation film. The radiological tumor bed was determined by connecting all the clips implanted during surgery Clinical field (CF) was drawn by adding 3 cm margin around surgical scar. Surgical field (SF) was drawn by adding 2 cm margin around surgical clips and an Ideal field (IF) was outlined by adding 2 cm margin around both scar and clips. These fields were digitized into our planning system to measure the area of each separate field. The areas of the three different electron boost fields were compared. Finally, surgical clips were contoured on axial CT images and dose volume histogram was plotted to investigate 3-dimensional coverage of the clips. Results : The average depth difference between SCD and the maximal clip location was $0.7{\pm}0.55cm$. Greater difference of 5 mm or more was seen in 12 patients. The average shift between the borders of scar and clips were 1.7 1.2, 1.2, and 0.9 cm in superior, inferior, medial, and lateral directions, respectively. The area of the CF was larger than SF and IF in 6y20 patients. In 15/20 patients, the area difference between SF and if was less than 5%. One to three clips were seen outside the CF in 15/20 patients. In addition, dosimetrically inadequate coverage of clips (less than 80% of prescribed dose) were observed in 17/20 patients when CF was used as the boost field. Conclusion: The electron field determined from clinical scar underestimates the tumor bed in superior-inferior direction significantly and thereby underdosing the tissue at risk. The electron field obtained from surgical clips alone dose not cover the entire scar properly As a consequence, our technique, which combines the surgical clips and clinical scars in determining electron boost field, was proved to be effective in minimizing the geographical miss as well as normal tissue complications.

Development of Conformal Radiotherapy with Respiratory Gate Device (호흡주기에 따른 방사선입체조형치료법의 개발)

  • Chu Sung Sil;Cho Kwang Hwan;Lee Chang Geol;Suh Chang Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : 3D conformal radiotherapy, the optimum dose delivered to the tumor and provided the risk of normal tissue unless marginal miss, was restricted by organ motion. For tumors in the thorax and abdomen, the planning target volume (PTV) is decided including the margin for movement of tumor volumes during treatment due to patients breathing. We designed the respiratory gating radiotherapy device (RGRD) for using during CT simulation, dose planning and beam delivery at identical breathing period conditions. Using RGRD, reducing the treatment margin for organ (thorax or abdomen) motion due to breathing and improve dose distribution for 3D conformal radiotherapy. Materials and Methods : The internal organ motion data for lung cancer patients were obtained by examining the diaphragm in the supine position to find the position dependency. We made a respiratory gating radiotherapy device (RGRD) that is composed of a strip band, drug sensor, micro switch, and a connected on-off switch in a LINAC control box. During same breathing period by RGRD, spiral CT scan, virtual simulation, and 3D dose planing for lung cancer patients were peformed, without an extended PTV margin for free breathing, and then the dose was delivered at the same positions. We calculated effective volumes and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) using dose volume histograms for normal lung, and analyzed changes in doses associated with selected NTCP levels and tumor control probabilities (TCP) at these new dose levels. The effects of 3D conformal radiotherapy by RGRD were evaluated with DVH (Dose Volume Histogram), TCP, NTCP and dose statistics. Results : The average movement of a diaphragm was 1.5 cm in the supine position when patients breathed freely. Depending on the location of the tumor, the magnitude of the PTV margin needs to be extended from 1 cm to 3 cm, which can greatly increase normal tissue irradiation, and hence, results in increase of the normal tissue complications probabiliy. Simple and precise RGRD is very easy to setup on patients and is sensitive to length variation (+2 mm), it also delivers on-off information to patients and the LINAC machine. We evaluated the treatment plans of patients who had received conformal partial organ lung irradiation for the treatment of thorax malignancies. Using RGRD, the PTV margin by free breathing can be reduced about 2 cm for moving organs by breathing. TCP values are almost the same values $(4\~5\%\;increased)$ for lung cancer regardless of increasing the PTV margin to 2.0 cm but NTCP values are rapidly increased $(50\~70\%\;increased)$ for upon extending PTV margins by 2.0 cm. Conclusion : Internal organ motion due to breathing can be reduced effectively using our simple RGRD. This method can be used in clinical treatments to reduce organ motion induced margin, thereby reducing normal tissue irradiation. Using treatment planning software, the dose to normal tissues was analyzed by comparing dose statistics with and without RGRD. Potential benefits of radiotherapy derived from reduction or elimination of planning target volume (PTV) margins associated with patient breathing through the evaluation of the lung cancer patients treated with 3D conformal radiotherapy.

The Smartphone User's Dilemma among Personalization, Privacy, and Advertisement Fatigue: An Empirical Examination of Personalized Smartphone Advertisement (스마트폰 이용자의 모바일 광고 수용의사에 영향을 주는 요인: 개인화된 서비스, 개인정보보호, 광고 피로도 사이에서의 딜레마)

  • You, Soeun;Kim, Taeha;Cha, Hoon S.
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.77-100
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the factors that influence the smartphone user's decision to accept the personalized mobile advertisement. As a theoretical basis, we applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) that illustrates how consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. In particular, we investigated how smartphone users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service as benefit-side factor and information privacy risks as a risk-side factor accompanying their acceptance of advertisements. Further, we extend the current PCM by considering advertisement fatigue as a new factor that may influence the user's acceptance. The research model with five (5) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 215 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a mobile advertisement service was provided. The results showed that three (3) out of five (5) hypotheses were supported. First, we found that the intention to accept advertisements is positively and significantly influenced by the perceived value of personalization. Second, perceived advertisement fatigue was also found to be a strong predictor of the intention to accept advertisements. However, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of privacy risks. Finally, we found that the significant moderating effect between the perceived value of personalization and advertisement fatigue. This suggests that the firms should provide effective tailored advertisement that can increase the perceived value of personalization to mitigate the negative impacts of advertisement fatigue.

Recognition and Request for Medical Direction by 119 Emergency Medical Technicians (119 구급대원들이 지각하는 의료지도의 필요성 인식과 요구도)

  • Park, Joo-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2011
  • Purpose : The purpose of emergency medical services(EMS) is to save human lives and assure the completeness of the body in emergency situations. Those who have been qualified on medical practice to perform such treatment as there is the risk of human life and possibility of major physical and mental injuries that could result from the urgency of time and invasiveness inflicted upon the body. In the emergency medical activities, 119 emergency medical technicians mainly perform the task but they are not able to perform such task independently and they are mandatory to receive medical direction. The purpose of this study is to examine the recognition and request for medical direction by 119 emergency medical technicians in order to provide basic information on the development of medical direction program suitable to the characteristics of EMS as well as for the studies on EMS for the sake of efficient operation of pre-hospital EMS. Method : Questionnaire via e-mail was conducted during July 1-31, 2010 for 675 participants who are emergency medical technicians, nurses and other emergency crews in Gyeongbuk. The effective 171 responses were used for the final analysis. In regards to the emergency medical technicians' scope of responsibilities defined in Attached Form 14, Enforcement regulations of EMS, t-test analysis was conducted by using the means and standard deviation of the level of request for medical direction on the scope of responsibilities of Level 1 & Level 2 emergency medical technicians as the scale of medical direction request. The general characteristics, experience result, the reason for necessity, emergency medical technicians & medical director request level, medical direction method, the place of work of the medical director, feedback content and improvement plan request level were analyzed through frequency and percentage. The level of experience in medical direction and necessity were analyzed through ${\chi}^2$ test. Results : In regards to the medical direction experience per qualification, the experience was the highest with 53.3% for Level 1 emergency medical technicians and 80.3% responded that experience was helpful. As for the recognition on the necessity of medical direction, 71.3% responded as "necessary" and it turned out to be the highest of 76.9% in nurses. As for the reason for responding "necessary", the reason for reducing the risk and side-effects from EMS for patients was the largest(75.4%), and the reason of EMS delay due to the request of medical direction was the highest(71.4%) for the reason for responding "not necessary". In regards to the request level of the task scope of emergency medical technicians, injection of certain amount of solution during a state of shock was the highest($3.10{\pm}.96$) for Level 1 emergency rescuers, and the endotracheal intubation was the highest($3.12{\pm}1.03$) for nurses, and the sublingual administration of nitroglycerine(NTG) during chest pain was the highest($2.62{\pm}1.02$) for Level 2 emergency medical technicians, and regulation of heartbeat using AED was the highest($2.76{\pm}.99$) for other emergency crews. For the revitalization of medical direction, the improvement in the capability of EMS(78.9%) was requested from emergency crew, and the ability to evaluate the medical state of patient was the highest(80.1%) in the level of request for medical director. The prehospital and direct medical direction was the highest(60.8%) for medical direction method, and the emergency medical facility was the highest(52.0%) for the placement of medical director, and the evaluation of appropriateness of EMS was the highest(66.1%) for the feedback content, and the reinforcement of emergency crew(emergency medical technicians) personnel was the highest(69.0%) for the improvement plan. Conclusion : The medical direction is an important policy in the prehospital EMS activity because 119 emergency medical technicians agreed the necessity of medical direction and over 80% of those who experienced medical direction said it was helpful. In addition, the simulation training program using algorithm and case study through feedback are necessary in order to enhance the technical capability of ambulance teams on the item of professional EMS with high level of request in the task scope of emergency medical technicians, and recognition of medical direction is the essence of the EMS field. In regards to revitalizing medical direction, the improvement of the task performance capability of 119 emergency medical technicians and medical directors, reinforcement of emergency medical activity personnel, assurance of trust between emergency medical technicians and the emergency physician, and search for professional operation plan of medical direction center are needed to expand the direct medical direction method for possible treatment beforehand through the participation by medical director even at the step in which emergency situation report is received.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Residual Petroleum Hydrocarbons using a Foodweb Bioaccumulation Model (먹이연쇄 생물축적 모형을 이용한 잔류유류오염물질의 생태위해성평가)

  • Hwang, Sang-Il;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 2009
  • Residual petroleum hydrocarbons after an oil spill may accumulate in the marine benthic ecosystem due to their high hydrophobicity. A lot of monitoring data are required for the estimation of ecosystem exposure to residual petrochemicals in an ecological risk assessment in the affected region. To save time and cost, the environmental exposure to them in the affected ecosystem can also be assessed using a simple food-web bioaccumulation model. In this study, we evaluated residual concentrations of four selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (phenanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene) in a hypothetic benthic ecosystem composed of six species under two exposure scenarios. Body-residue concentration ranged 5~250 mg/kg body depending on trophic positions in an extreme scenario in which the aqueous concentrations of PAHs were assumed to be one-tenth of their aqueous solubility. In addition, bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) were evaluated for model species. The logarithm of bioconcentration factor (log BCF) linearly increased with increasing the logarithm of 1-octanol-water partition coefficient (log $K_{OW}$) until log $K_{OW}$ of 7.0, followed by a gradual decrease with further increase in log $K_{OW}$ without metabolic degradation. Biomagnification became significant when log $K_{OW}$ of a pollutant exceeded 5.0 in the model ecosystem, indicating that investigation of food-web structure should be critical to predict biomagnifications in the affected ecosystem because log $K_{OW}$ values of many petrochemicals are higher than 5.0. Although further research is required for better site-specific evaluation of exposure, the model simulation can be used to estimate the level of the ecosystem exposure to residual oil contaminants at the screening level.