• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk scenario

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Computer modelling of fire consequences on road critical infrastructure - tunnels

  • Pribyl, Pavel;Pribyl, Ondrej;Michek, Jan
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.363-377
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    • 2018
  • The proper functioning of critical points on transport infrastructure is decisive for the entire network. Tunnels and bridges certainly belong to the critical points of the surface transport network, both road and rail. Risk management should be a holistic and dynamic process throughout the entire life cycle. However, the level of risk is usually determined only during the design stage mainly due to the fact that it is a time-consuming and costly process. This paper presents a simplified quantitative risk analysis method that can be used any time during the decades of a tunnel's lifetime and can estimate the changing risks on a continuous basis and thus uncover hidden safety threats. The presented method is a decision support system for tunnel managers designed to preserve or even increase tunnel safety. The CAPITA method is a deterministic scenario-oriented risk analysis approach for assessment of mortality risks in road tunnels in case of the most dangerous situation - a fire. It is implemented through an advanced risk analysis CAPITA SW. Both, the method as well as the resulting software were developed by the authors' team. Unlike existing analyzes requiring specialized microsimulation tools for traffic flow, smoke propagation and evacuation modeling, the CAPITA contains comprehensive database with the results of thousands of simulations performed in advance for various combinations of variables. This approach significantly simplifies the overall complexity and thus enhances the usability of the resulting risk analysis. Additionally, it provides the decision makers with holistic view by providing not only on the expected risk but also on the risk's sensitivity to different variables. This allows the tunnel manager or another decision maker to estimate the primary change of risk whenever traffic conditions in the tunnel change and to see the dependencies to particular input variables.

Evaluation of the Application of a European Chemical Risk Assessment Tool in Korea (외국 노출량 산정 프로그램(ECETOC TRA)의 국내 적용을 위한 입력변수의 보정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong Han;Lee, Kown Seob;Hong, Mun Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: The study aim was to evaluate the application of a chemical exposure assessment tool for the Korean workplace. The Ministry of Employment and Labor in Korea (KMOEL) introduced the need for workplace risk assessments in 2011, requiring the Korean chemical industry to consider both domestic and international chemical regulation policies (e.g., estimations of exposure scenarios). Exposure scenarios are required in the European Union as part of material safety data sheets (MSDS) under the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) system. Methods: Although many programs for the estimation of exposure have been developed worldwide, to date there is no standard for the Korean workplace. To develop programs suitable for the Korean workplace, we examined the applicability of the European Center for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals target risk assessment (ECETOC TRA), which is recommended by the European Chemical Agency (ECHA). Results: To investigate the applicability of the ECETOC TRA to Korean industry, this study simulated 15 industrial processes. The predicted respiratory exposures for four processes using origin input parameters were underestimated compared to the measured respiratory exposure. Using calibrated input parameters, results for two processes were underestimated compared to the measured respiratory exposure. This result suggests that the use of calibrated input parameters reduces the differences between predicted and measured respiratory exposure. Conclusions: we developed applicable exposure estimating method by modifying the ECETOC TRA program; one suggested the development of exposure estimating program that explains Korea domestic workplace exposure scenario.This study will support the introduction of exposure scenario in MSDS system and protect health of worker from hazardous chemical.

Risk Assessment Based on Highway Hydrogen Chloride Gas Leakage Scenario Using GIS (GIS를 활용한 고속도로 염화수소 가스 누출 시나리오 기반 리스크 평가)

  • Kim, Kuyoon;Lee, Jaejoon;Yun, Hongsik
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.591-601
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    • 2021
  • As the domestic chemical industry continues to develop, handling and transportation of chemicals increases every year. Road freight in Korea accounts for more than 90%, and most of the chemical transportation is done through roads. These chemical vehicles can lead to major accidents if accidents occur. Transportation vehicles are likely to cause water pollution and soil pollution, which are factors of environmental damage, as well as traffic accidents that are the primary damage. In this work, we write a scenario for hydrogen chloride gas leakage by setting Banpo IC and Seocho IC sections as research areas, and use the ALOHA program to measure the predicted distance and analyze the time when hydrogen chloride gas reached according to the distance. In addition, risk assessment using population density was carried out for areas of damage caused by time using GIS. This suggests the need for prevention and countermeasures in areas of damage.

A study on optimal planning of risk reduction for water suspension in water pipe system using fault tree analysis (결함트리분석을 이용한 상수관망 단수 리스크 저감 최적 방안 연구)

  • Choi, Tae Ho;Kim, A Ri;Kim, Min Cheol;Koo, Ja Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.699-711
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    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to analyze water suspension in the water supply system through fault tree analysis. And quantitative factors was evaluated to minimize water suspension. Consequently the aim of this study is to build optimal planning by analyzing scenarios for water suspension. Accordingly the fault tree model makes it possible to estimate risks for water suspension, current risks is $92.23m^3/day$. The result of scenario analysis by pipe replacement, risks for water suspension was reduced $7.02m^3/day$ when replacing WD4 pipe. As a result of scenario analysis by water district connections, the amount of risk reduction is maximized when it is connecting to network pipe of D Zone. Therefore, connecting to network pipe for D Zone would be optimal to reduce risk for water suspension.

Assessment of seismic risk of a typical RC building for the 2016 Gyeongju and potential earthquakes

  • Jee, Hyun Woo;Han, Sang Whan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.337-351
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    • 2021
  • On September 12, 2016, the Gyeongju earthquake occurred in the south-eastern region of the Korean peninsula. The event was ranked as the largest magnitude earthquake (=5.8) since instrumental recording was started by the Korean Metrological Administration (KMA) in 1978. The objective of this study is to provide information obtained from the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake and to propose a procedure estimating seismic risk of a typical old RC building for past and potential earthquakes. Ground motions are simulated using the point source model at 4941 grid locations in the Korean peninsula that resulted from the Gyeongju earthquake and from potential future earthquakes with the same hypocenter considering different soil conditions. Nonlinear response history analyses are conducted for each grid location using a three-story gravity-designed reinforced concrete (RC) frame that most closely represents conventional old school and public buildings. Then, contour maps are constructed to present the seismic risk associated with this building for the Gyeongju earthquake and potential future scenario earthquakes. These contour maps can be useful in the development of a mitigation plan for potential earthquake damage to school and public buildings at all grid locations on the Korean peninsula.

A Strategy for the Generation of Accident Scenarios Using Multi-Component Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment (화학공정 위험영향 평가기술에서의 다중요소분석기법을 이용한 사고시나리오 산정에 관한 전략)

  • 김구회;이동언;김용하;안성준;윤인섭
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.24-33
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    • 2001
  • This article proposes a strategy for producing accident scenarios in quantitative risk, which is peformed in process design or operation steps. Present worldwide chemical processes need off-site risk assessment as well as on-site one. Most governments in the world require industrial companies to submit the proper emergency plans through off-site risk assessment. Korea is also preparing for executing Integrated Risk Management System along with PSM and SMS. However.

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Risk Analysis According to the Installation of Fire Doors on Direct Stairs in the Event of a Fire in an Old Apartment (노후 아파트 화재 시 직통계단의 방화문 설치 여부에 따른 위험성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang Im;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.869-878
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    • 2021
  • This study is a study on 11-story apartments that increase the event of fires in old apartments where building-related laws and regulations are not retroactively applied. As a result of analyzing the risk of installing fire doors in Improvement Scenario 2-4, assuming that fire doors are installed as basic scenario 1 in the existing situation where fire doors are not installed at the entrance of direct stairs. In basic scenario 1, the visible distance to the entrance of the direct staircase due to the spread of smoke was 260 seconds. Improvement scenarios 3 to 4 with fire doors installed open 300 seconds after the fire was recognized, and when the fire doors were installed at the entrance of the direct stairs, the visibility to the entrance of the statistics team was less than 600 seconds. In this case, the visibility was 600 seconds at the time of installation of the fire door, and scenarios 3 to 4 increased 56.6% compared to scenario 1, lowering the risk of evacuation by more than 50%. In order to eliminate the risk of non-installation of direct statistical groups that increase the risk of smoke spread, building-related laws such as the Fire Fighting Act shall be retroactively applied when installing a direct stairway entrance or balcony folding evacuation system. The improvement caused by the installation of fire doors has numerically proven the necessity of fire doors during evacuation, and the importance of maintaining fire doors can be grasped.

A environments study for the model construction of risk scenario (위험 시나리오 모델 구성을 위한 환경 연구)

  • Park, Sangjoon;Lee, Jongchan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2019.07a
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    • pp.123-124
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    • 2019
  • 본 논문에서는 안전관리를 시나리오 모델의 환경을 고려한다. 안전관리에 대해서 보통의 경우 사고의 재발 환경이 높은 곳에서 그 필요성이 절실히 요구된다. 따라서 안전관리의 필요성이 제시된 곳에서 그 환경에 적용될 수 있는 시나리오의 모델을 추출해야 한다. 시나리오 모델들의 추출은 시나리오 적용 지역의 환경 분석을 통하여 대상 요소를 분석하여 구축하여야 한다.

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Development of Response Scenario for a Simulated HNS Spill Incident (위험유해물질 유출사고 대응을 위한 가상시나리오 개발)

  • Lee, Moonjin;Oh, Sangwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2014
  • In response to possible HNS (Hazardous and Noxious Substance) spill accident, HNS spill accident scenario and response scenario were developed. The accident area listed in scenarios is the coastal area of Busan, and scenario for possible accident in the designated area and strategies to respond the accident were developed, respectively. The scenario for accident was developed by designating HNS spill according to risk evaluation of HNS and analysis of HNS spill probability along the coastal area of Busan, and then estimating possible and potential impact from the accident. The scenario for response has been suggested as a systematical responding operations in order to effectively reduce the estimated impact from the accident. The possible HNS spill accident on the seas around Busan, has been designated by the spillage of 1,000ton of xylene due to collision accident in Gamcheon Port, and the possible impacts occurred by the accident has been simulated with the help of the atmospheric and oceanic dispersion model of xylene. In the responding scenario for the accident, a phased strategies regarding emergency rescue of peoples, protection and recovery of xylene, protective measures for the responders, and post management of the accident have been suggested.