• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk cost

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Estimation of Road-Network Performance and Resilience According to the Strength of a Disaster (재난 강도에 따른 도로 네트워크의 성능 및 회복력 산정 방안)

  • Jung, Hoyong;Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

Evaluation of Serological Surveillance System for Improving Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control (구제역 관리를 위한 혈청학적 예찰계획 평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Shin, Yeun-Kyung
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.258-263
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    • 2013
  • The primary goal of this study was to compute sample sizes required to achieve the each aim of a variety of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) surveillance programs, using a statistically valid technique that takes the following factors into account: sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of diagnostic test system, desired minimum detectable prevalence, precision, population size, and desired power of the survey. In addition, sample sizes to detect FMD if the disease is present and also as proof of freedom were computed. The current FMD active surveillance programs consist of clinical, virological, and serological surveillance. For the 2012 serological surveillance, annual sample sizes (n = 265,065) are planned at four separate levels: statistical (n = 60,884) and targeted (n = 115,232) at breeding pig farms and slaughter house, in together with the detection of structural proteins (SP) antibodies against FMD (n = 88,949). Overall, the sample size was not designed taking the specific aims of each surveillance stream into account. The sample sizes for statistical surveillance, assuming stratified two-stage sampling technique, was based to detect at least one FMD-infected case in the general population. The resulting sample size can be used to obtain evidence of freedom from FMD infection, not for detecting animals that have antibodies against FMD virus non-structural proteins (NSP). Additionally, sample sizes for targeted surveillance were not aimed for the population at risk, and also without consideration of statistical point of view. To at least the author's knowledge, sampling plan for targeted, breeding pig farms and slaughter house is not necessary and need to be included in the part of statistical surveillance. Assuming design prevalence of 10% in an infinite population, a total of 29 animals are required to detect at least one positive with probability of 95%, using perfect diagnostic test system (Se = Sp = 100%). A total of 57,211 animals needed to be sampled to give 95% confidence of estimating SP prevalence of 80% at the individual animal-level with a precision of ${\pm}5%$, assuming 800 herds with an average 200 heads per farm, within-farm variance of 0.2, between-farm variance of 0.05, cost ratio of 100:1 of farm against animals. Furthermore, 779,736 animals were required to demonstrate FMD freedom, and the sample size can further be reduced depending on the parameters assumed.

The Relationship between Offline Trust and Online Transaction in Internet Banking (인터넷 뱅킹에서 오프라인 신뢰와 온라인 거래의 관계)

  • Lee, Woong-Kyu
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.29-47
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    • 2007
  • Owing to the rapid growth of using the Internet, not only click-and-mortar companies but also brick-and-mortar ones have been expanding their distribution channels into online, Moreover, since online channels are more attractive than offline ones in control and maintenance, switching customers into online ones is emerged as one of very important managerial issues in a view of reduction of cost as well as expansion of services. However, the switched customers should be faced by uncertainties which could not have been experienced in offline. Specifically, in online channels, buyers and sellers are separated temporally and spacially and there are always so many kinds of threat for security as well as not enough systems and conventions for them yet. Therefore, trust has been considered as one of the most critical mechanisms for resolution of such uncertainties in online transactions. However, it is not easy to build and maintain the relationships in online since most of them are virtual and indirect generally. Therefore, in order to switch offline customers into online ones, it is very important to make strategies based on identification of the relationship between online transaction and offline trust which has been built in offline business. Generally offline trust, which has been built independent of online, could not include trust for online-dependent activities such as payment security during or after transactions, while most of online trust include it. Therefore, a customer with high offline trust does not always perceive high security and assure safe transactions. Accordingly, while online trust, where technical capabilities for online security is one of main bases, includes control trust implicitly or explicitly, offline trust does not. However. in spite of such clear discrimination and independence between offline trust and perceived security, there can be the significant dependency between these two beliefs. The customers with high offline trust believe that the company would do some activities for online security for customers' safe transactions since it has been believed of doing well for customers' trust. Theoretically, users' perception of security is interpreted as a kind of control trus, which is trust for company's technical control capacities in order to resolve technical uncertainties in online. Therefore, the relationship between two beliefs can be considered as transference from offline trust to another type trust. that is, control trust. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of offline trust on online transaction uses mediated by perceived security. For this purpose, we suggest a research model based on technology acceptance model (TAM). Reuse intention is adopted as a dependent variable and TAM is modified by adding perceived risk (PR) as well as two beliefs of using Internet banking, perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU). Moreover, perceive security (PS) is adopted as an external variable for PR and PU, while offline trust (OT) is an antecedent of PS. For an empirical test, sampling from 108 visitors to the banks in Daegu, Korea, we analyze our model by partial least square (PLS) approach. In result, our model is shown to explain 51.4% of the variance in reuse intention and all hypothesis are supported statistically. A theoretical implication of this study is to identify a role of PS between offline trust and reuse intention of using online transaction services. According to our result, PS can be considered as a mediation variable for bridging between two different concepts: trust that explains social aspects of customers and companies, and TAM that explains customers' reuse intention.

Method for Preventing Asphyxiation Accidents by a CO2 Extinguishing System on a Ship (선박 내 CO2 소화설비에 의한 질식사고 방지 기법)

  • Ha, Yeon-Chul;Seo, Jung-Kwan;Hwang, Jun-Ho;Im, Kichang;Ryu, Sang-Hoon
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2015
  • Carbon dioxide extinguishing systems are broadly used for onshore and offshore fire accidents because of excellent performance and low cost. However, there is risk with carbon dioxide systems, which have caused many injuries and deaths by suffocation associated with industrial and marine fire protection applications. In this study, a numerical analysis was performed to predict the fire suppression characteristics of a carbon dioxide system in the compressor room of ships. A double protection safety system is suggested to prevent suffocation accidents from carbon dioxide extinguishing systems. Four scenarios were selected to study the variation of the heat release rate, maximum temperature, a $CO_2$ and $O_2$ mole fraction, and fire suppression characteristics with the carbon dioxide system. The importance of proper design is suggested for a ventilation system in the compressor room of ships.

A Study on Data Preprocessing for the Activity-Travel Simulator: A Case of FEATHERS Seoul (활동기반 시뮬레이터 입력 자료의 전처리 방안에 대한 연구: FEATHERS Seoul을 사례로)

  • Cho, Sungjin;Hwang, Jeong Hwan;Bellemans, Tom;Kochan, Bruno;Lee, Won Do;Choi, Keechoo;Joh, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.531-543
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    • 2014
  • Research on activity-based travel demand forecasting and activity-travel simulator has received an international attention for the last two decades. Ways to develop the activity-based simulator may be manifold. It is obvious that importing an existing simulator that has been proven internationally likely reduces the development cost and the risk of failure. By definition of the activity-based approach, however, the details of an activity-based simulator inevitably relies on particular social, economic and cultural characteristics of the society where the simulator is developed. When importing such a simulator from overseas, the researcher should be aware of the importance of tuning the system for the society to which the imported system is applied. There are many potential works on this, including for example the tuning of data structure that is likely different form of the original system. The authors are yet aware of certain research on those. The current paper aims to report the result of transforming the input data for applying the existing activity-travel simulator to Seoul. The paper first introduces FEATHERS that was developed in Belgium having Albatross which is the core of system. FEATHERS Seoul that is under development and modified version of the original FEATHERS is briefly described and the related problems are discussed. The paper then explored to resolve and to alleviate such problems.

On the Use of SysML Models in the Conceptual Design of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (무인항공기체계의 개념설계에서 SysML 모델의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Min;Lee, Jae-Chon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.37 no.2C
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    • pp.206-216
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    • 2012
  • Today's war fields can be characterized by net-centric wars where a variety of independent weapon systems are operated in connection with each other via networks. As such, weapon systems become dramatically advanced in terms of complexity, functionality, precision and so on. It is then obvious that the defense R&D of those requires systematic and efficient development tools enabling the effective management of the complexity, budget/cost, development time, and risk all together. One viable approach is known to be the development methods based on systems engineering, which is already proved to successful in U.S. In this paper, a systems engineering approach is studied to be used in the conceptual design of advanced weapon systems. The approach is utilizing some graphical models in the design phase. As a target system, an unmanned aerial vehicle system is considered and the standard SysML is also used as a modeling language to create models. The generated models have several known merits such as ease of understanding and communication. The interrelationships between the models and the design artifacts are identified, which should be useful in the generation of some design documents that are required in the defense R&D. The result reported here could be utilized in the further study that can eventually lead to a full-scale model-based systems engineering method.

Local Drug Delivery System Using Biodegradable Polymers

  • Khang, Gil-Son;Rhee, John M.;Jeong, Je-Kyo;Lee, Jeong-Sik;Kim, Moon-Suk;Cho, Sun-Hang;Lee, Hai-Bang
    • Macromolecular Research
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 2003
  • For last five years, we are developing the novel local drug delivery devices using biodegradable polymers, especially polylactide (PLA) and poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) due to its relatively good biocompatibility, easily controlled biodegradability, good processability and only FDA approved synthetic degradable polymers. The relationship between various kinds of drug [water soluble small molecule drugs: gentamicin sulfate (GS), fentanyl citrate (FC), BCNU, azidothymidine (AZT), pamidronate (ADP), $1,25(OH)_2$ vitamin $D_3$, water insoluble small molecule drugs: fentanyl, ipriflavone (IP) and nifedipine, and water soluble large peptide molecule drug: nerve growth factor (NGF), and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV)], different types of geometrical devices [microspheres (MSs), microcapsule, nanoparticle, wafers, pellet, beads, multiple-layered beads, implants, fiber, scaffolds, and films], and pharmacological activity are proposed and discussed for the application of pharmaceutics and tissue engineering. Also, local drug delivery devices proposed in this work are introduced in view of preparation method, drug release behavior, biocompatibility, pharmacological effect, and animal studies. In conclusion, we can control the drug release profiles varying with the preparation, formulation and geometrical parameters. Moreover, any types of drug were successfully applicable to achieve linear sustained release from short period ($1{\sim}3$ days) to long period (over 2 months). It is very important to design a suitable formulation for the wanting period of bioactive molecules loaded in biodegradable polymers for the local delivery of drug. The drug release is affected by many factors such as hydrophilicity of drug, electric charge of drug, drug loading amount, polymer molecular weight, the monomer composition, the size of implants, the applied fabrication techniques, and so on. It is well known that the commercialization of new drug needs a lot of cost of money (average: over 10 million US dollar per one drug) and time (average: above 9 years) whereas the development of DDS and high effective generic drug might be need relatively low investment with a short time period. Also, one core technology of DDS can be applicable to many drugs for the market needs. From these reasons, the DDS research on potent generic drugs might be suitable for less risk and high return.

Analysis of Socio-Scientific Issues(SSI) Programs in Korea (과학 관련 사회적 쟁점(Socio-Scientific Issues, SSI)을 활용한 국내 프로그램 분석)

  • Park, HyunJu;Kim, Nahyung
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.62 no.2
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to analysis total number of 123 SSI programs by SSI criteria. The criteria was consisted of subject, school level, starting point, scientific evidence, social content, use of scientific knowledge, level of conflict of interest, and evaluation and reflection. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, elementary school programs were the most and middle school programs were relatively few. Second, starting point was mainly in the actual situation, the fiction and nonfiction situation, and the situation including the controversy and conflict was less than 10%. Third, it was based on scientific evidence but mainly influenced by individual values and perceptions. Fourth, social contents were developed mainly in ethics/morality/value, political/social life/economy, environment contents. Fifth, the use of scientific knowledge mainly consisted of scientific decision making, scientific critical thinking, and information search. However, science inquiry, risk assessment, and cost effectiveness were less than 10%. Scientific inquiry is the essential factor of science education, and one of core competencies of national science curriculum. SSI program should be able to experience various kinds of conflicts, and to evaluate and reflect through reflection.

Measuring the Corporate Readiness to Address Climate Challenges : Developing an Index of Climate Competitiveness (기업경쟁력에 미치는 기후변화의 영향 : 경쟁력 결정요인과 측정지표 개발)

  • Lee, Myung-Kyoon;Kim, Hoseok
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.383-411
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    • 2010
  • Climate change and related policies and regulations influence the performance of the firms in various ways. Climate change influences corporate competitiveness through physical impacts, GHG regulations, changes in asset values, demand shift, etc. Therefore, corporate competitiveness could be maintained by reducing vulnerability to climate change and adapting to new circumstances. Without effective responses to the challenges, the firms would have difficulties in maintaining their competitiveness in the market and the cost of national economy will significantly increase as well. Even though it seems fairly easy to understand the meaning of competitiveness, deriving the driving forces of and measuring changes in competitiveness are complicated and disputable processes. A common way to overcome it is to develop a 'competitiveness index'. The objective of this study is to derive the main factors influencing corporate competitiveness related to climate change and develop 'competitiveness index' reflecting those factors. The index will make contribution to enhance the response capacity of the firms to climate change and increase the effectiveness of climate change policies for the industry by providing a quantitative tool to measure the changes in corporate competitiveness related to climate change.

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Real Option Study on Cookstove Offset Project under Emission Allowance Price Uncertainty (배출권 가격 불확실성을 고려한 고효율 쿡스토브 보급사업 실물옵션 연구)

  • Lee, Jaehyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.219-246
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    • 2020
  • From the Phase II (2018~2020) of K-ETS, the offset credit from 'CDM projects that domestic companies and others have carried out in foreign countries' can be used in the K-ETS. As a result, stakeholders in the K-ETS market are actively developing overseas CDM projects, such as the 'high-efficiency cook stove project'. which can secure a large amount of credits while marginal cost is relatively low. This paper develops the investment decision-making model of offset project for the 'high-efficiency cook stove project' using the real option approach. Under the uncertainty of the emission allowance price, the optimal investment threshold (p) is derived and sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, in the standard scenario (PoA-S), the optimal investment threshold is 29,054won/ton, which is lower than the stock price (pspot). However, allocation entities are not only economics in the CDM project, but also CDM risk factors such as non-renewable biomass ratio, cook stove replacement ratio, equity ratio with host country, investment period and submission limitation of emission allowance. In addition, offset project developers will be able to derive the optimal investment threshold for each business stage and use it for economic feasibility checks.