• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.38-45
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• 2015

건설위험관리 프로세스의 위험분석단계는 정성적 및 정량적 위험분석단계로 세분화되는데, 정성적 위험분석이 주된 역할을 하고 정량적 위험분석은 보조적인 역할을 담당한다. 그런데 이제까지 정성적 위험분석단계에서 위험도를 계량화하는 방법으로 적용되어온 위험도 산정 공식은 발생확률과 영향을 단순히 곱하는 식으로서 결과 값들은 저위험도에 편중된 분포를 나타낸다. 이에 대한 대안으로 고위험도에 편중되는 산정 공식이 제안되었으나, 위험도 분포가 저위험도 또는 고위험도에 편중하게 될 경우 대부분의 자연현상이 정상분포에 가깝다는 통계학적인 일반논리에 부합되지 않는다. 본 연구에서는 위험도의 분포가 중앙에 집중되는 새로운 위험도 산정방법을 제안하고자 한다. 이를 통해 위험도 분포가 자연현상의 정상분포와 유사한 형식으로 표현됨으로써 위험에 대응하는 수준이 고위험도 또는 저위험도에 치우지지 않고 중간위험도에서 합리적으로 선택될 수 있게 하고자 한다. 나아가 위험도 산정방법에 대한 추가적인 선택사항을 제공함으로써 위험분석 방법의 융통성과 합리성을 향상시키는데도 일조하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2014

Purpose: This study was to identify predictors of drug dosage calculation error risk in newly graduated nurses. Methods: A total of 115 newly graduated nurses who passed their employment examination, but didn't work for hospital yet, were recruited from a university hospital. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, $X^2$-test, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficients, and stepwise multiple regression using the SPSS 18.0 program. Results: The mean score of 'drug dosage calculation ability' was $0.81{\pm}0.16$ and the mean score of 'certainty of calculation' was $2.95{\pm}0.60$ out of a 5 point scale. The error risk of drug dosage calculation was positively related to anxiety for drug dosage calculations (r=.388, p<.001), but negatively related to interest and confidence in mathematics (r=-.468, p<.001), confidence related to dosage calculations (r=-.426, p<.001). The main predictors of error risk related drug calculations in newly graduated nurses were identified as interest and confidence in mathematics (${\beta}$=-.468, p<.001). This factor explained about 21.9% of the variance in error risk of drug dosage calculation. Conclusion: The strategies used to decrease the error risk related drug dosage calculation such as improving interest and confidence in mathematics should be developed and implemented.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2004년도 춘계공동학술대회 논문집
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• pp.636-647
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• 2004

The objective of this paper is to provide an improved reorder decision policy for general multi-echelon distribution systems utilizing the shared stock information. It has been known that traditional reorder policies sometimes show poor performance in distribution systems. Thus, in our previous research we introduced the order risk policy which utilizes the shared stock information more accurately for the 2-echelon distribution system and proved the optimality. However, since the real world supply chain is generally composed with more than 2 echelons, we extend the order risk policy for the general multi-echelon systems. Since the calculation of the exact order risk value for general multi-echelon systems is very complex, we provide two approximation methods for the real-time calculation. Through the computational experiment comparing the order risk policy with the existing policies under various conditions, we show the performance of the order risk policy and analyze the value of the shared stock information varying with the characteristics of the supply chain.

• 산업공학
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.359-374
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• 2004

The objective of this paper is to provide an improved reorder decision policy for general multi-echelon distribution systems utilizing the shared stock information. It has been known that traditional reorder policies sometimes show poor performance in distribution systems. Thus, in our previous research we introduced the order risk policy which utilizes the shared stock information more accurately for the 2- echelon distribution system and proved the optimality. However, since the real world supply chain is generally composed with more than 2 echelons, we extend the order risk policy for the general multi-echelon systems. Since the calculation of the exact order risk value for general multi-echelon systems is very complex, we provide two approximation methods for the real-time calculation. Through the computational experiment comparing the order risk policy with the existing policies under various conditions, we show the performance of the order risk policy and analyze the value of the shared stock information varying with the characteristics of the supply chain.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제43권6호
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• pp.543-548
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• 2010

Objectives: The objective of this study was to calculate sample size and power in an ongoing cohort, Korea radiation effect and epidemiology cohort (KREEC). Method: Sample size calculation was performed using PASS 2002 based on Cox regression and Poisson regression models. Person-year was calculated by using data from '1993-1997 Total cancer incidence by sex and age, Seoul' and Korean statistical informative service. Results: With the assumption of relative risk=1.3, exposure:non-exposure=1:2 and power=0.8, sample size calculation was 405 events based on a Cox regression model. When the relative risk was assumed to be 1.5 then number of events was 170. Based on a Poisson regression model, relative risk=1.3, exposure:non-exposure=1:2 and power=0.8 rendered 385 events. Relative risk of 1.5 resulted in a total of 157 events. We calculated person-years (PY) with event numbers and cancer incidence rate in the nonexposure group. Based on a Cox regression model, with relative risk=1.3, exposure:non-exposure=1:2 and power=0.8, 136 245PY was needed to secure the power. In a Poisson regression model, with relative risk=1.3, exposure:non-exposure=1:2 and power=0.8, person-year needed was 129517PY. A total of 1939 cases were identified in KREEC until December 2007. Conclusions: A retrospective power calculation in an ongoing study might be biased by the data. Prospective power calculation should be carried out based on various assumptions prior to the study.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2013

According to 2012 OECD environmental report, Korea was ranked as the first country of water stress. Water footprint is a method to calculate water usage during the life cycle of a product from material procurement through production to disposal to recycle and to quantify the load to water resources. In water footprint calculation, water consumption unit is used. Agricultural water use is over 48% so it is urgent to mange that area Korea needs to spread the discussion about water footprint as quickly as possible, for the study to prevent social and environmental problems due to water shortage. This paper, through water footprint calculation and comparison in Chungju and Geochang areas, looks to counter measures for water risk, targeting domestically-produced apple.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.295-303
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• 2018

현재 DBB 발주방식에서는 설계단계와 시공단계가 분리되어 있어, 잦은 설계변경이 발생하고 있다. 아울러 공사비초과, 공기지연 및 품질저하를 야기하는 문제점들을 초래하고 있다. 최근에 발주자의 다양한 요구, 제한적인 예산 및 공기 등의 제약조건에 대응할 수 있는 발주방식인 CM@R 발주방식이 대두되고 있다. CM@R 발주방식에서는 설계단계에서 발주자와 협의하여 GMP를 정하고, GMP 내에서 CM수행자가 책임을 지고 공사를 수행하는 방식이다. 그러나 CM@R 특성상 완성되지 않은 도서를 기준으로 GMP를 산정하기 때문에 불확실성이 내재되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 GMP 산정시 불확실성을 고려하기 위하여, CBR를 이용한 공사비 예측 및 MCS를 적용한 확률론적 초기 GMP 산정방안을 제시하였으며, 초기 GMP 산정 이후 사업진행에 따라 GMP 협의를 수행할 수 있는 프로세스를 제시하였다. 사례연구 및 검증을 통하여 확률론적 초기 GMP 산정방안을 검증하였다. 본 연구에서는 제시된 확률론적 GMP 산정방안을 통하여 GMP의 범위를 설정하고 발주자와 CM수행자가 협의을 통해 리스크를 줄임으로써, CM@R의 성공적인 국내 도입에 일조하고자 하였다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제53권9호
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• pp.487-493
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• 2004

The electric power industry throughout the world is undergoing considerable changes from the vertically integrated utility structure to the deregulated market. However, the deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper compares the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI) with the system performance index for power flow in the IEEE-RTS. The system performance index for power flow presents the power system stability. This paper presents fast calculation method for determining contingency ranking using the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI). The probabilistic risk index can be classified into the case of normal and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking required for security under the deregulated electricity market.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2001년도 학술대회지
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• pp.65-72
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• 2001

최근 들어 건설환경이 더욱 복잡해지고 경쟁이 치열해짐에 따라 위험관리의 중요성이 더욱 부각되고 있다. 그러나 건설공사에 적용되는 대부분의 위험관리 기법들이 사업초기단계에서 위험분석에 집중되어 있어, 건설과정에서 공정관리, 원가관리 또는 품질관리처럼 일상적인 관리기법으로 개발되어 있지 않다. 본 논문에서는 건설공사에서 위험관리를 일상적인 관리기법으로 적용하기 위하여 위험허용도 중심의 위험대응 프로세스를 제안하고, VaR개념을 응용한 위험허용도 산정방법을 제시하고자 한다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.959-981
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• 2017

Existing Android malware detection approaches mostly have concentrated on superficial features such as requested or used permissions, which can't reflect the essential differences between benign apps and malware. In this paper, we propose a quantitative calculation model of application risks based on the key observation that the essential differences between benign apps and malware actually lie in the way how permissions are used, or rather the way how their corresponding permission methods are used. Specifically, we employ a fine-grained analysis on Android application risks. We firstly classify application risks into five specific categories and then introduce comprehensive risk, which is computed based on the former five, to describe the overall risk of an application. Given that users' risk preference and risk-bearing ability are naturally fuzzy, we design and implement a fuzzy logic system to calculate the comprehensive risk. On the basis of the quantitative calculation model, we propose a risk classification based approach for Android malware detection. The experiments show that our approach can achieve high accuracy with a low false positive rate using the RandomForest algorithm.