• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Processes

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On the Development of Risk Factor Map for Accident Analysis using Textmining and Self-Organizing Map(SOM) Algorithms (재해분석을 위한 텍스트마이닝과 SOM 기반 위험요인지도 개발)

  • Kang, Sungsik;Suh, Yongyoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2018
  • Report documents of industrial and occupational accidents have continuously been accumulated in private and public institutes. Amongst others, information on narrative-texts of accidents such as accident processes and risk factors contained in disaster report documents is gaining the useful value for accident analysis. Despite this increasingly potential value of analysis of text information, scientific and algorithmic text analytics for safety management has not been carried out yet. Thus, this study aims to develop data processing and visualization techniques that provide a systematic and structural view of text information contained in a disaster report document so that safety managers can effectively analyze accident risk factors. To this end, the risk factor map using text mining and self-organizing map is developed. Text mining is firstly used to extract risk keywords from disaster report documents and then, the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm is conducted to visualize the risk factor map based on the similarity of disaster report documents. As a result, it is expected that fruitful text information buried in a myriad of disaster report documents is analyzed, providing risk factors to safety managers.

A Study on the Analysis of Risk Factors for Hydrogen Fuel Stations Based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (정량적 위험성평가 기반 수소충전소 위험요소 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Jae Yong;Lee, Jieun;Song, Hyoungwoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.70-76
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we suggested the direction to lower the risk by analyzing the risk factors for each process for the hydrogen refueling station to be installed in Chungju. HyRAM, one of the quantitative risk assessment tools for hydrogen gas, was used to analyze the hazards. By evaluating the frequency of accidents and consequences for each process, the most dangerous processes and accident factors were presented, and the risk mitigation factors were synthesized. Hydrogen refueling stations are currently in the global infrastructure expansion period, and the lack of accident data could be an alternative to this risk assessment and is expected to be used as a reference for the future expansion of hydrogen refueling stations.

Positive Interest Rate Model in the Presence of Jumps

  • Rhee, Joonhee;Kim, Yoon Tae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.495-501
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    • 2004
  • HJM representation of the term structure of interest rates sometimes produces the negative interest rates with positive probability. This paper shows that the condition of positive interest rates can be derived from the jump diffusion process, if a proper positive martingale process with the compensated jump process is chosen. As in Flesaker and Hughston, the condition is incorporated into the bond price process.

Health Risk Assessment of Disinfection By-products by Chlorination in Tap Water Ingestion (수도수중 염소 소독부산물로 인한 건강위해성 평가에 관한 연구 - 서울시 수도수중 Trihalomethanes 및 Haloaceticnitriles을 중심으로 -)

  • Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Park, Yeon-Shin;Kim, Jun-Sung
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.12 no.3_4
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 1997
  • Public concerns about hazardous health effect from the exposure to organic by-products of the chlorination have been increased. There are numerous studies reporting that chlorination of drinking water produces numerous chlorinated organic by-products including THMs, HAAs, HANs. Some of these products are known to be animal carcinogens. The purpose of this study was to estimate health risk of DBPs by chlorinated drinking water ingestion in Seoul based on methodologies that have been developed for conducting risk assessment of complex-chemical-mixture. The drinking water sample was collected seperately at six water treatment plant in Seoul at March, April, 1996. In tap water of households in Seoul, DBPs were measured wilfh the mean value of 36.6 $\mu$g/L. Risk assessment processes,. which include processes for the estimation of human cancer potency using animal bioassay data and calculation of human exposure, entail uncertainties. In the exposure assessment process, exposure scenarios with various assumptions could affect the exposure amount and excess cancer risk. The reference dose of haloacetonitriles was estimated to be 0.0023 mg/kg/day by applying dibromoacetonitrile NOAEL and uncertainty factor to the mean concentration. In the first case, human excess cancer risk was estimated by the US EPA method used to set the MCL (maximum contaminant level). In the second and third case, the risk was estimated for multi-route exposure with and without adopting Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. In the second case, exposure input parameters and cancer potencies used probability distributions, and in the third case, those values used point estimates (mean, and maximum or 95% upper-bound value). As a result, while the excess cancer risk estimated by US EPA method considering only direct ingestion tended to be underestimated, the risk which was estimated by considering multi-route exposure without Monte-Carlo simulation and then using the maximum or 95% upper-bound value as input parameters tended to be overestimated. In risk assessment for Trihalomethanes, considering multi-route exposure with adopting Monte-Carlo analysis seems to provide the most reasonable estimations.

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A Case Study on the Estimation of the Risk based on Statistics (산업재해통계기반 Risk 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Jong-Gwon;Lee, Mi-Jeong;Seol, Mun-Su;Baek, Jong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2021
  • Risk assessment techniques are processes used to evaluate hazardous risk factors in construction sites, facilities, raw materials, machinery, and equipment, and to estimate the size of risk that could lead to injury or disease, and establish countermeasures. The most important thing in assessing risk is calculating the size of the risk. If the size of the risk cannot be calculated objectively and quantitatively, all members who participated in the evaluation would passively engage in establishing and implementing appropriate measures. Therefore, this study focused on predicting accidents that are expected to occur in the future based on past occupational accident statistics, and quantifying the size of the risk in an overview. The technique employed in this study differs from other risk assessment techniques in that the subjective elements of evaluators were excluded as much as possible by utilizing past occupational accident statistics. This study aims to calculate the size of the risk, regardless of evaluators, such as a manager, supervisor, safety manager, or employee. The size of the risk is the combination of the likelihood and severity of an accident. In this study, the likelihood of an accident was evaluated using the theory of Bud Accident Chainability, and the severity of an accident was calculated using the occupational accident statistics over the past five years according to the accident classification by the International Labor Organization.

RUIN PROBABILITIES IN THE RISK MODEL WITH TWO COMPOUND BINOMIAL PROCESSES

  • Zhang, Mao-Jun;Nan, Jiang-Xia;Wang, Sen
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.26 no.1_2
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we consider an insurance risk model governed by a compound Binomial arrival claim process and by a compound Binomial arrival premium process. Some formulas for the probabilities of ruin and the distribution of ruin time are given, we also prove the integral equation of the ultimate ruin probability and obtain the Lundberg inequality by the discrete martingale approach.

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An Investigation on the Risk Factors of Musculoskeletal Disorders in the Assembly Line for industrial Pump (산업용 펌프 조립공정에서의 근골격계 질환 유해요인 조사)

  • Kim, Dae-Sig
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 2008
  • Musculoskeletal Disorders are usually caused or aggravated by poor work processes and unsuitable working conditions - that involve repetitive or forceful movements or the maintenance of constrained or awkward postures. The condition is characterized by discomfort and persistent pain. An investigation on the risk factors of musculoskeletal should have done one time per three years. Cause of musculoskeletal disorders for assembly line worker was a low back pain(LBP). Recommendations of improvement for productivity are redesign of working conditions, exercise, prevent of musculoskeletal disorders and avoiding stress.

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Analysis and Reduction for Risk factors of Construction Projects (건설공사의 리스크인자 분석 및 경감에 관한 연구)

  • Chung Byoung-Hwa;Chung Young-Shik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.4 s.8
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to Identification the Risk of construction method to protect and reduce of construction period. Risk management is one of the key project management process. Numerous tools are available to support the various phases of the risk management process. We present the results of a study designed to identify the tools that are most widely used and those that are associated with successful project management in general, and with effective project risk management in particular. The study is based on a questionnaire administered to a sample of project managers from construction enterprises. The response data was analyzed in order to find which tools are more likely to be used in the those organizations that report better project management performance and in those that value the contribution of risk management processes.

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Plan for Risk Reduction of Smart Factory Process through Accident Analysis and Status Survey (재해분석과 실태조사를 통한 스마트 팩토리 공정의 위험성 감소 방안)

  • Byeon, Junghwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2022
  • The domestic smart factory is being built and spread rapidly, mainly by mid-sized companies and large enterprises according to the government's active introduction and support policy. But these factories only promote production system and efficiency, so harmfulness and risk factors are not considered. Therefore, to derive harmful risk factors in terms of industrial safety for 12,983 government-supported smart factory workplaces from 2014 to 2019, industrial accident status analysis compared workplaces with automation facilities and government-supported workplaces with automation facilities. Also, to reduce risks associated with domestic smart factory processes, twenty government-supported workplaces with automation facilities underwent analysis, evaluating risks through a status survey using the process evaluation table. In addition, the status survey considered region, size, industry, construction level, and accident rate; the difference in risk according to the structure of the process was confirmed. Based on the smart factory process evaluation results, statistical analysis confirmed that serial, parallel, and hybrid structures pose different risk levels and that the risks of mixed structures are greater. Finally, safety control system application was presented for risk assessment and reduction in the smart factory process, reflecting the results of disaster analysis and actual condition investigation.

An Application of ERM to Risk Management in the Logistics: A Case

  • Park, Tae-Ho;Lim, Seung-Min;Kim, Jae-Bong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.321-327
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    • 2012
  • Logistics in a supply chain network has become an important operational strategy in a competitive market. A number of internal and external risks involved in the logistics operations in a company tend to create problems in fulfilling customer orders. This research presents how ERM (enterprise risk management) can be used to identify, assess, and control logistics risks. An electronic company's logistics activities were used as an industry case to demonstrate a way to identify and assess risks surrounding global logistics function. This paper has further presented action plans to mitigate the impact of the risks that occur.