• Title/Summary/Keyword: Returns

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Performance Comparison of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms for Futures Scalping (해외선물 스캘핑을 위한 강화학습 알고리즘의 성능비교)

  • Jung, Deuk-Kyo;Lee, Se-Hun;Kang, Jae-Mo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.697-703
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    • 2022
  • Due to the recent economic downturn caused by Covid-19 and the unstable international situation, many investors are choosing the derivatives market as a means of investment. However, the derivatives market has a greater risk than the stock market, and research on the market of market participants is insufficient. Recently, with the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning has been widely used in the derivatives market. In this paper, reinforcement learning, one of the machine learning techniques, is applied to analyze the scalping technique that trades futures in minutes. The data set consists of 21 attributes using the closing price, moving average line, and Bollinger band indicators of 1 minute and 3 minute data for 6 months by selecting 4 products among futures products traded at trading firm. In the experiment, DNN artificial neural network model and three reinforcement learning algorithms, namely, DQN (Deep Q-Network), A2C (Advantage Actor Critic), and A3C (Asynchronous A2C) were used, and they were trained and verified through learning data set and test data set. For scalping, the agent chooses one of the actions of buying and selling, and the ratio of the portfolio value according to the action result is rewarded. Experiment results show that the energy sector products such as Heating Oil and Crude Oil yield relatively high cumulative returns compared to the index sector products such as Mini Russell 2000 and Hang Seng Index.

The impact of market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index on the risk-return relationship in the crude oil market (시장 공포, 불확실성, 주식시장, 해상운임지수가 원유시장의 위험-수익 관계에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2022
  • In this study, daily data from January 2002 to June 2022 were used to investigate the relationship between risk-return relationship and market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index for the crude oil market. For this study, the time varying EGARCH-M model was applied to the risk-return relationship, and the wavelet consistency model was used to analyze the relationship between market fear, uncertainty, stock market, and maritime freight index. The analysis results of this study are as follows. First, according to the results of the time-varying risk-return relationship, the crude oil market was found to be related to high returns and high risks. Second, the results of correlation and Granger causality test, it was found that there was a weak correlation between the risk-return relationship and VIX, EPU, S&P500, and BDI. In addition, it was found that there was no two-way causal relationship in the risk-return relationship with EPU and S&P500, but VIX and BDI were found to affect the risk-return relationship. Third, looking at the results of wavelet coherence, it was found that the degree of the risk-return relationship and the relationship between VIX, EPU, S&P500, and BDI was time-varying. In particular, it was found that the relationship between each other was high before and after the crisis period (financial crisis, COVID-19). And it was found to be highly associated with organs. In addition, the risk-return relationship was found to have a positive relationship with VIX and EPU, and a negative relationship with S&P500 and BDI. Therefore, market participants should be well aware of economic environmental changes when making decisions.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Relationship Structure between Volatility and Trading Volume in the BTC Market: A CRQ approach (COVID-19 팬데믹이 BTC 변동성과 거래량의 관계구조에 미친 영향 분석: CRQ 접근법)

  • Park, Beum-Jo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 2021
  • This study found an interesting fact that the nonlinear relationship structure between volatility and trading volume changed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic according to empirical analysis using Bitcoin (BTC) market data that sensitively reflects investors' trading behavior. That is, their relationship appeared positive (+) in a stable market state before COVID-19 pandemic, as in theory based on the information flow paradigm. In a state under severe market stress due to COVID-19 pandemic, however, their dependence structure changed and even negative (-). This can be seen as a consequence of increased market stress caused by COVID-19 pandemics from a behavioral economics perspective, resulting in structural changes in the asset market and a significant impact on the nonlinear dependence of volatility and trading volume (in particular, their dependence at extreme quantiles). Hence, it should be recognized that in addition to information flows, psychological phenomena such as behavioral biases or herd behavior, which are closely related to market stress, can be a key in changing their dependence structure. For empirical analysis, this study performs a test of Ross (2015) for detecting a structural change, and proposes a Copula Regression Quantiles (CRQ) approach that can identify their nonlinear relationship structure and the asymmetric dependence in their distribution tails without the assumption of i.i.d. random variable. In addition, it was confirmed that when the relationship between their extreme values was analyzed by linear models, incorrect results could be derived due to model specification errors.

Plant growth and fruit enlargement among different watermelon (Citrullus lanatus) cultivars in continuous chilling night temperature conditions (지속적인 야간 저온에 의한 수박 품종별 식물체 생장 및 과실 비대 양상)

  • Oak Jin Lee;Hee Ju Lee;Seung Hwan Wi;Tae Bok Kim;Sang Gyu Kim;Won Byoung Chae
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.486-494
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    • 2021
  • Watermelon (Citrullus lanatus (Thunb.) Matsum. & Nakai) is sensitive to low temperature and shows retarded growth under 10℃. Although early transplanting guarantees higher returns, it requires cost and labor to maintain the appropriate temperature for plant growth. Therefore, cultivars tolerant to chilling stress is necessary to reduce the cost and labor requirements. The purpose of this study is to analyze data on plant growth and fruit enlargement under continuous chilling night temperature to develop new cultivars tolerant to chilling temperature. Two cultivars expected to have chilling tolerance and another cultivar sensitive to chilling temperature were grown in greenhouses with chilling and optimal night temperature conditions. In the early growth stage after transplanting, the cultivars expected to have chilling tolerance showed better vine length, fresh weight and dry weight. However, one of the tolerant cultivars showed significantly lower vine length, leaf length and width, and petiole length than the sensitive cultivar during pollination period and later growth stage, showing genotype specific responses. The fruit length, width, and weight were also significantly lower in the tolerant cultivar. The fruit set ratio was significantly higher in the chilling sensitive cultivar than the two tolerant cultivars. These results suggest that the present chilling tolerant cultivars in watermelon were selected based on their performance in the early growth stage, and further studies on chilling tolerance in different growth and development stages are required to develop cultivars adapted to various forcing cultivation systems.

Comparison of Efficiency of Manufacturing Companies Listed on KOSPI Using Metafrontier: Focusing on ESG Ratings (메타프론티어를 이용하여 상장 제조업의 효율성 비교: ESG 등급을 중심으로)

  • Chanhi Cho;Hyoung-Yong Lee
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2023
  • Existing studies on mixed ratings that combine ESG ratings and credit ratings have been rare. Through meta-frontier analysis, this study examines the relationship between the prime and non-prime groups in ESG ratings, credit ratings, and mixed ratings that consider ESG ratings and credit ratings at the same time. Efficiency was compared. Meta-frontier analysis was used to compare the efficiency of 143 listed manufacturing companies in Korea between the prime and non-prime groups based on the ESG ratings assigned to them by KCGS and the credit ratings assigned by Korea's three major credit rating agencies. As a result of this study, first, the meta-efficiency of the prime mixed-grade group was statistically more efficient than the non-prime mixed-grade group under the variable return scale (VRS) assumption. Second, the prime ESG rating group had a relatively higher proportion of scale inefficiency than the non-prime ESG rating group. Third, in terms of economies of scale, the prime credit rating group had a higher proportion of diminishing returns to scale (DRS) than the non-prime credit rating group. This study will help companies interested in sustainability management to do ESG management.

Review of change and response strategies for ESG management (ESG 경영을 위한 변화 및 대응 전략 검토)

  • Choe Yoowha
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.75-79
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    • 2023
  • ESG management means to thoroughly consider the investor's perspective when evaluating corporate value, and environmental, social, and governance issues are continuous and strategic monitoring issues in identifying risk and opportunity factors related to corporate management activities. In other words, the perspective of value creation is reflected in business relationships. The fundamental purpose of ESG management is continuous business value creation and thorough management of investment risks and business transactions in contractual relationships. It is also a requirement of linked investors. The field that Korean companies are currently experiencing the most is the recognition that 'ESG information collection is necessary and maintenance must be prioritized' in investor IR and global sales and marketing departments, and the primary need for this is emerging. In addition, as the legal affairs office, environmental safety department, and human resources department, which conduct compliance management, carry out related tasks, clarity at the organizational level must precede in order to properly establish an information integration and management system. It covers the scope of securing new market opportunities such as management, disclosure and communication. Therefore, in regard to the newly emerging ESG management and response methods, it is necessary to review and implement it repeatedly so that sustainable exchange profits can be created by simultaneously managing non-financial risks as well as efforts to enhance corporate value for financial returns.

A Study on the Construction for Optimal Network of Metro Transfer System in Yangsan Area (양산지역 도시철도 환승체계 최적노선망 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Yang Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.1D
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2010
  • Recently, the management of metro business in large cities has become more difficult because of increased construction and operation costs. The purpose of this paper presents the construction of transfer system to resolve about recent tendency to decrease of metro-users and diminution of use efficiency which are serious problems of Busan metro. To cope with this situation, it is necessary to examine the methods of obtaining returns on development profits of land value rises that occur due to transfer system construction between Busan metro line #1 and line #2 in Yangsan area. Therefore, it was made use of research on metro utilization to presuppose service improvement, as an alternative, in the transfer system construction between metro and metro which might be powerful influence over metro-users. In this research, it was examined the actual situation of rises in land values brought about by the transfer system construction of metro line #1 and line #2 in Yangsan area with application of four (4) methods, and have calculated a basis of the development profits produced by the transfer system construction of metro line. According to the economical efficiency analysis, the total construction cost amount to 4,827.1 billion won of case #1 based on single track, and evaluate economically as B/C to 1.013, NPV to 72.7 billion, IRR to 5.614 percent.

How Market Reacts on the Metaverse Initiatives? An Event Study (메타버스 투자 추진이 기업 가치에 미치는 영향 분석: 이벤트 연구 방법론)

  • Mina Baek;Jeongha Kim;Dongwon Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.183-204
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    • 2023
  • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of occasions need to be held in online environment. This is the reason why "Metaverse" gets lots of attention in 2021. A number of companies made announcements on Metaverse, and this situation also boomed stock market. This paper investigates the relationship between Metaverse initiatives and business value of the firm (i.e., stock prices). We examine this relationship by using event study method with Lexis-Nexis News data from 2019 to 2021. The results indicate that Metaverse initiatives significantly impact positive influence on firm's value. In the technological perspective, technical factors affect more positive market returns, including Metaverse enablers (e.g., NFT, VR devices, digital twin) and common infrastructure (e.g., semiconductor, AI, cloud), and especially virtual environment was emphasized. Additionally, in the strategical perspective, radical innovation (e.g., pivoting, acquisition) impact more positive market return rather than incremental innovation (e.g., partnership, investment). Also, firms from non-service industries can achieve benefits from Metaverse initiatives rather than service industry in some degree.

The Effect of Real Estate Investment Factors in Investors of Sejong City on Investment Performance and Reinvestment Intention (세종시 투자자의 투자요인이 투자성과와 재투자의향에 미치는 영향)

  • Tae-Bock Park;Jaeho Chung
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2023
  • Investors should understand and actively consider factors like location, future value, policies, pricing, market trends, and their income, as these elements can shift with changing local, social, economic, and policy environments. This study seeks to clarify the impact of investment factors on the performance and reinvestment intentions of Sejong City investors by surveying those who have invested in real estate. This study employs a structural equation model with confirmatory factor analysis, focusing on four aspects: value, economic and policy, psychological, and financial. We find that the investment value factor has the largest impact on investment performance, indicating that investors prioritize the investment value of real estate in Sejong City. In addition, factors increasing asset value and expected satisfaction were significant, indicating that real estate investment in Sejong City yields high returns and investor satisfaction. with a positive outlook for future reinvestment.

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of Impact Investment (임팩트 투자 결정요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Goh, Byeong Ki;Kim, Da Hye;Sung, Chang Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2023
  • Impact investment involves investing in companies that pursue both social value and financial returns. It focuses on addressing various social problems through innovative solutions while generating profits. The domestic impact investment ecosystem has experienced significant growth with the support of the government and public institutions. In 2021, it witnessed a 3.5-fold increase over three years, reaching a total of 700 billion won in operating assets. In order to foster qualitative growth alongside this quantitative expansion, it is crucial to conduct research specifically on impact investment, which sets it apart from conventional venture investment. This study aims to empirically analyze the unique factors that influence impact investment decisions. Firstly, the factors affecting investment decisions were identified through a literature analysis. Then, a consultation and Delphi survey involving 11 representatives and evaluators from impact investment companies was conducted to determine the major investment determinants. Subsequently, an AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) survey was carried out with 10 impact investment evaluators to ascertain the relative importance of these factors. The analysis revealed the following order of importance for the top factors: market>entrepreneur(team)>product/service>finance. Furthermore, the importance of specific factors was identified in the following order: market competition and entry barriers>new market creation>market growth and potential expansion>team expertise and capabilities. Unlike previous studies that primarily focus on general startup investment factors, this research demonstrates that impact investment places greater emphasis on market-related factors and considers the sustainability and profitability of the business model to be more important than the social impact of social ventures.

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