• Title/Summary/Keyword: Return Reversal

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Inter-Factor Determinants of Return Reversal Effect with Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

  • HAQUE, Abdul;RAO, Marriam;QAMAR, Muhammad Ali Jibran
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.203-215
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    • 2022
  • Bayesian Networks are multivariate probabilistic factor graphs that are used to assess underlying factor relationships. From January 2005 to December 2018, the study examines how Dynamic Bayesian Networks can be utilized to estimate portfolio risk and return as well as determine inter-factor relationships among reversal profit-generating components in Pakistan's emerging market (PSX). The goal of this article is to uncover the factors that cause reversal profits in the Pakistani stock market. In visual form, Bayesian networks can generate causal and inferential probabilistic relationships. Investors might update their stock return values in the network simultaneously with fresh market information, resulting in a dynamic shift in portfolio risk distribution across the networks. The findings show that investments in low net profit margin, low investment, and high volatility-based designed portfolios yield the biggest dynamical reversal profits. The main triggering aspects related to generation reversal profits in the Pakistan market, in the long run, are net profit margin, market risk premium, investment, size, and volatility factor. Investors should invest in and build portfolios with small companies that have a low price-to-earnings ratio, small earnings per share, and minimal volatility, according to the most likely explanation.

Predictability of Overnight Returns on the Cross-sectional Stock Returns (야간수익률의 횡단면 주식수익률에 대한 예측력)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper explores whether overnight returns measured from the last closing price to today's opening price explain the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study is conducted using the Korean stock market data from 1998 to 2018, obtained from DataGuide database. The analysis begins with portfolio-level tests, followed by firm-level cross-sectional regressions. Findings - First, when decile portfolios sorted on the daily average of overnight returns in the previous months, the highest decile portfolio exhibits a significant negative risk-adjusted return. This suggests that stocks with higher average overnight returns are temporarily overvalued due to buying pressure from investors. Second, at least 6 months of persistence exists in average overnight returns, which is in line with the results reported by Barber, Odean and Zhu (2009) that investor sentiment persists over several weeks. Finally, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression of expected returns after controlling for a variety of firm characteristic variables such as firm size, book-to-market ratio, market beta, momentum, liquidity, short-term reversal, the slope coefficient for overnight returns remains negative and statistically significant. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the evidence consistently suggests that overnight return is considered as a new priced factor in the cross-section of expected returns. The findings of this paper not only adds to finance literature, but also could be useful to practitioners in making stock investment decision.

Trading Using Trend Reversal Pattern Recognition in the Korea Stock Market (추세 반전형 패턴 인식을 이용한 주식 거래)

  • Kwon, Soonchang
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2013
  • Although analysis of charts, which used in stock trading by distinguishing standardized patterns in the movements of stock prices, is simple and easy to use, there can be problems stemming from specific patterns being distinguished as a result of the subjective perspectives of analysts. In accordance with such problems, through the method of template pattern matching, 4 trend reversal patterns were designed and the fitness of the patterns were quantitatively measured. In cases when a stock is purchased when the template pattern fitness value is within a certain range and held for at least 20-days, the average return ratio was analyzed to be higher-with the difference being statistically significant-than the average return ratio attained from trading a stock according to the same method per the Efficient Market Hypothesis. From the results of stock trades of 2 domestic corporations to which the values of the 4 patterns had been applied based on the 4 strategies, it was possible to ascertain differences in the strategy- and pattern-dependent return ratios. Through this study, along with presenting the exceptions for the Efficient Market Hypothesis in stock trading, the fitness level of quantitative chart patterns was measured and the theoretical basis for application of such fitness level was proposed.

Slot Array Antenna with Phase Reversal Device for WLAN Application (WLAN 적용을 위한 위상 반전 장치를 갖는 슬롯 배열 안테나)

  • Park, Sung-Il;Jung, Jin-Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.745-750
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    • 2018
  • A Slot array antenna with a phase reversal device is presented for WLAN operation. The array factor and radiation characteristics of the antenna are investigated. For practical application of the radiation pattern, the phase reversal device is used. The antenna is formed on both sides of the substrate ($30mm{\times}96mm{\times}0.2mm$). The measured results show that the proposed antenna has a 10 dB return loss bandwidth of 156 MHz (2.392 - 2.548 GHz) and the measured maximum gain was 8.31 dBi.

The Relationship between Internet Search Volumes and Stock Price Changes: An Empirical Study on KOSDAQ Market (개별 기업에 대한 인터넷 검색량과 주가변동성의 관계: 국내 코스닥시장에서의 산업별 실증분석)

  • Jeon, Saemi;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Dongyoup
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.81-96
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    • 2016
  • As the internet has become widespread and easy to access everywhere, it is common for people to search information via online search engines such as Google and Naver in everyday life. Recent studies have used online search volume of specific keyword as a measure of the internet users' attention in order to predict disease outbreaks such as flu and cancer, an unemployment rate, and an index of a nation's economic condition, and etc. For stock traders, web search is also one of major information resources to obtain data about individual stock items. Therefore, search volume of a stock item can reflect the amount of investors' attention on it. The investor attention has been regarded as a crucial factor influencing on stock price but it has been measured by indirect proxies such as market capitalization, trading volume, advertising expense, and etc. It has been theoretically and empirically proved that an increase of investors' attention on a stock item brings temporary increase of the stock price and the price recovers in the long run. Recent development of internet environment enables to measure the investor attention directly by the internet search volume of individual stock item, which has been used to show the attention-induced price pressure. Previous studies focus mainly on Dow Jones and NASDAQ market in the United States. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the individual investors' attention measured by the internet search volumes and stock price changes of individual stock items in the KOSDAQ market in Korea, where the proportion of the trades by individual investors are about 90% of the total. In addition, we examine the difference between industries in the influence of investors' attention on stock return. The internet search volume of stocks were gathered from "Naver Trend" service weekly between January 2007 and June 2015. The regression model with the error term with AR(1) covariance structure is used to analyze the data since the weekly prices in a stock item are systematically correlated. The market capitalization, trading volume, the increment of trading volume, and the month in which each trade occurs are included in the model as control variables. The fitted model shows that an abnormal increase of search volume of a stock item has a positive influence on the stock return and the amount of the influence varies among the industry. The stock items in IT software, construction, and distribution industries have shown to be more influenced by the abnormally large internet search volume than the average across the industries. On the other hand, the stock items in IT hardware, manufacturing, entertainment, finance, and communication industries are less influenced by the abnormal search volume than the average. In order to verify price pressure caused by investors' attention in KOSDAQ, the stock return of the current week is modelled using the abnormal search volume observed one to four weeks ahead. On average, the abnormally large increment of the search volume increased the stock return of the current week and one week later, and it decreased the stock return in two and three weeks later. There is no significant relationship with the stock return after 4 weeks. This relationship differs among the industries. An abnormal search volume brings particularly severe price reversal on the stocks in the IT software industry, which are often to be targets of irrational investments by individual investors. An abnormal search volume caused less severe price reversal on the stocks in the manufacturing and IT hardware industries than on average across the industries. The price reversal was not observed in the communication, finance, entertainment, and transportation industries, which are known to be influenced largely by macro-economic factors such as oil price and currency exchange rate. The result of this study can be utilized to construct an intelligent trading system based on the big data gathered from web search engines, social network services, and internet communities. Particularly, the difference of price reversal effect between industries may provide useful information to make a portfolio and build an investment strategy.

Is the Fama French Three-Factor Model Relevant? Evidence from Islamic Unit Trust Funds

  • Shaharuddin, Shahrin Saaid;Lau, Wee-Yeap;Ahmad, Rubi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2018
  • The study tests the Fama and French three-factor model by using the newly created Islamic equity style indices. Based on a dataset from May 2006 to April 2011, the three-factor model is tested based on returns of Islamic unit trust funds using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology. The sample period is also divided between periods before and after the Global Financial Crisis in August 2008 to test for robustness, and the Bai and Perron (2003) multiple structural break test was used to determine the structural break in the series. The analysis shows that the Fama and French model is valid for Islamic unit trust funds before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The result further indicates the reversal of size effect. As for trading strategies, value funds outperform growth funds by annualized 3.13 percent for the full period. During pre-crisis period, value funds perform better than growth funds while in post-crisis, size factor yields better return than other strategies. As policy suggestion, fund managers need to be aware of the reversal of size effect, and they need to ensure a more transparent stock selection process so that investors can make an informed decision in their asset allocation.

Performance Comparison of Conventional and Segmental Rotor Type Switched Reluctance Motor

  • Jeong, Kwang-Il;Xu, Zhenyao;Lee, Dong-Hee;Ahn, Jin-Woo
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.1138-1146
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    • 2018
  • Performance comparisons of switched reluctance motor for cooling fan application are dealt in this paper. Conventional and novel segmental type motors with the same dimension are compared. The conventional 12/8 type is very popular and used widely. The structure of segmental rotor type motor is constructed from a series of discrete segments, and the stator is constructed from two types of stator poles: exciting and auxiliary poles. This type of motor has short flux path and no flux reversal in the stator. The auxiliary poles are not wound by the windings and only provide the flux return path. Compared with conventional SRM, the segmental structure increases electrical utilization of the machine and decreases core losses, which leads to higher efficiency. To verify the segmental structure, finite element method (FEM) is employed to get static and dynamic characteristics of both SRMs. Finally, the prototypes of conventional and segmental SRMs are tested for characteristics comparisons.

Search Frequency in Internet Portal Site and the Expected Stock Returns (포털사이트에서의 피검색빈도와 주식수익률)

  • Ban, Ju-Il;Kim, Myeong-Ae;Cheon, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2016
  • NAVER provides search frequency data of search terms via its DataLab service (http://datalab.naver.com/). Using this data, this paper examines the relation between the search frequency of firm's name and its future stock returns. Our results show that the search frequency of firm's name is a new investor attention measure, which is different from previously explored attention measures such as extreme returns, turnover, etc. Firms that go through higher search frequency this week tend to have higher returns in the next week. We do not find return reversal in the long run for the firms with higher search frequency. Furthermore, the extent to which search frequency affects stock returns becomes more pronounced following market-wide attention grabbing events. Our results indicate that search frequency incorporates information for future stock returns.

Efficacy of phentolamine mesylate in reducing the duration of various local anesthetics

  • Gago-Garcia, Alejandro;Barrilero-Martin, Cayetana;Alobera-Gracia, Miguel Angel;del Canto-Pingarron, Mariano;Seco-Calvo, Jesus
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2021
  • Background: To evaluate changes in the effectiveness of phentolamine mesylate in combination with different local anesthetics (LAs) and vasoconstrictors. A prospective randomized double-blind study was conducted with 90 patients divided into three groups, with each group being administered one of three different LAs: lidocaine 2% 1/80,000, articaine 4% 1/200,000, and bupivacaine 0.5% 1/200,000. Methods: We compared treatments administered to the mandible involving a LA blockade of the inferior alveolar nerve. Results were assessed by evaluating reduction in total duration of anesthesia, self-reported patient comfort using the visual analog pain scale, incidence rates of the most common adverse effects, overall patient satisfaction, and patient feedback. Results: The differences among the three groups were highly significant (P < 0.001); time under anesthesia was especially reduced for both the lip and tongue with bupivacaine. The following adverse effects were reported: pain at the site of the anesthetic injection (11.1%), headaches (6.7%), tachycardia (1.1%), and heavy bleeding after treatment (3.3%). The patients' feedback and satisfaction ratings were 100% and 98.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Efficient reversal of LAs is useful in dentistry as it allows patients to return to normal life more readily and avoid common self-injuries sometimes caused by anesthesia. Phentolamine mesylate reduced the duration of anesthesia in the three studied groups, with the highest reduction reported in the bupivacaine group (from 460 min to 230 min for the lip and 270 min for the tongue [P < 0.001]).

A Study on the Effect of Investor Sentiment and Liquidity on Momentum and Stock Returns (투자자 심리와 유동성이 모멘텀과 주식수익률에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • In-Su, Kim
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.11
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes whether investor sentiment and liquidity explain the momentum phenomenon in the Korean stock market and whether it is a risk factor for the asset pricing model. The empirical analysis used the monthly returns of non-financial companies listed on the stock market during the period 2000-2021. As a result of the analysis, first, it was found that there is a momentum effect in Korea. This is the same result as the previous study, and since 2000, the momentum effect has been accepted as a general phenomenon in the Korean stock market. Second, if we look at the portfolio based on investor sentiment, investor sentiment is influencing momentum. In particular, when investor sentiment is negative, the return on the winner portfolio is high. Third, as a result of the analysis based on liquidity, the momentum effect disappears and a reversal effect appears. Fourth, it was found that investor sentiment and liquidity influence the momentum effect. This is a result of the strong momentum effect in the illiquid stock group with negative investor sentiment. Fifth, as a result of analyzing the effect of each factor on stock returns, it was found that both investor psychology and liquidity factors have a significant impact on returns. The estimated results provide evidence that the inclusion of these two factors in the Carhart four-factor model significantly increases the predictive power of the model. Therefore, it can be said that investor sentiment factors and liquidity factors are important factors in determining stock returns.