• Title/Summary/Keyword: Requirement uncertainty

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Analysis of Flight Performance Reserve for Upper Stage of Satellite Launch Vehicles (위성발사체 상단의 비행성능여유 분석)

  • Song, Eun-Jung;Choi, Jiyoung;Cho, Sang-bum;Sun, Byung-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.386-392
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    • 2017
  • This paper considers the analysis of the flight performance reserve, which is required propellant to compensate various launch vehicle performance deviations, to inject the payload of a 3-staged launch vehicle to a circular sun synchronous orbit at a height of 700 km. The various error sources, which affect the orbit injection accuracy, and their uncertainty are defined first. Then the sensitivity analysis, which has the advantage that each error source effect can be investigated independently, is performed for the extreme ${\pm}3{\sigma}$ conditions of the launch vehicle performance errors. Monte carlo simulations are also conducted to compute the propellant reserve, which can consider the combined effects of each error source. Finally the obtained flight performance reserves by the two approaches are compared and it is confirmed that they show similar results.

Advanced medical devices and regulatory innovations in new health technology assessments (의료기기 발전과 신의료기술평가 규제혁신)

  • Lee, You Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Medical Association
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    • v.61 no.12
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    • pp.702-705
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    • 2018
  • Advances in technology lead to advances in medical devices, and these advances have the positive effect of creating opportunities for beneficial developments in healthcare, such as innovating traditional healthcare processes or expanding opportunities for diagnosing and treating diseases. Nonetheless, device developers, suppliers, users, insurers, and patients all face the challenge of balancing patient safety and health effectiveness with a reasonable profit. In Korea, the New Health Technology Assessment system aims to introduce safe and effective health technology, but this is only effective for the entry of devices onto the healthcare market. This system is not enough for creating a healthy ecosystem in which high-quality technologies and devices survive in the market and naturally exit from the market if not successful. The nation must not lag in the rapid development of medical devices, but the concomitant requirement for patient safety is like two rabbits moving in different directions. There is not enough time to resolve each source of uncertainty for both developers and users. The early adoption of health technologies, including medical devices, offers new opportunities for treatment and diagnosis, but also poses unexpected health risks. Thus, we need to design a plan to generate scientific evidence related to medical devices after they introduced into practice. Additionally, regarding the use of individual medical devices, we believe that the creation of a healthy ecosystem for medical devices by implementing medical device surveillance culture is a way to manage the opportunities and risks of the early introduction of innovative medical devices.

Assessment of climate change impacts on uncertainty and sensitivity of paddy water requirement in South Korea using multi-GCMs (Multi-GCMs을 활용한 논벼 필요수량의 불확성 및 민감도 기후영향평가)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yoon, Kwangsik;Choi, Dongho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.516-516
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    • 2016
  • 기후변화는 농업생산량 감소와 식량 안보 문제와 같이 농업에 심각한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 또한 기존의 농업수리 및 관개배수 시설 운영에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 지속가능한 농업 수자원 관리를 위해서는 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 장기적인 계획 수립이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 논벼 지역의 설계용수량의 확률론적 분석을 통한 논벼 필요수량 및 설계용수량에 대한 기후변화영향 평가를 실시하였다. 이를 위해서 본 연구에서는 23개 GCM의 36개 산출물을 활용하여 Multi-model ensemble 구축하였다. 먼저 GCM별 증발산량과 유효우량을 산정한 결과 중부지역에서는 IPSL-CM5A 모델의 기후변화자료를 활용할 경우 증발산량과 유효우량이 타 GCM 모델들과 비하여 크게 산정되었다. 남부지역에서는 CanESM2 모델을 적용할 경우 가장 많은 증발산량과 유효우량이 모의되는 것으로 나타났다. 이처럼 GCM별로 다양한 결과가 모의되기 때문에 농업시설 설계에 적용되는 설계용수량의 경우 안전성을 위하여 Multi-GCM models을 활용할 필요가 있다. Multi-model ensemble의 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 적용한 결과, 모든 경우에서 1995s(1981-2014)에 비해 설계용수량은 점차적으로 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 평균 증가율은 RCP 4.5에서 중부지역이 9.4%, 남부지역이 6.0% 증가하는 것으로 나타난 반면, RCP 8.5에서는 중부지역이 11.1%, 남부지역이 8.2% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 여러 GCM 산출물간의 불확실성은 RCP 4.5보다는 RCP 8.5 시나리오가, 중부 지역보다는 남부 지역이, 논벼 증발산량 보다는 유효우량이 더 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 향후 미래 가뭄 위험성을 최소화하기 위한 농업 수자원관리 전략수립에 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 본 연구결과는 기후변화 영향 평가에 있어서 적합한 GCM 자료를 선택하는데 있어, 불확실성을 가늠할 수 있는 유용한 척도로 이용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Development of Analytical Reference Material for Proficiency Test of Pesticide Multi-residue Analysis in Green-pepper (풋고추 농약다성분분석 정도관리용 분석표준물질 개발)

  • Kim, Jong-Hwan;Choi, Sung-Gil;Oh, Young-Gon;Kwon, Young-Sang;Hong, Su-Myeong;Sung, Mun-Hyun;Lee, Se-Ja;Hwang, Sun-Young;Seo, Jong-Su
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.211-220
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    • 2016
  • This study was to develop the analytical reference material of green-pepper for multi-residue analysis of pesticides. According to the ISO Guide 35, ISO Guide 13528 and EURL-PT protocol, the homogeneity, stability, assigned value and uncertainty were calculated to assess if it was suitable to be used as the proficiency test or quality control. The values of the within-bottle standard variation ($s_{wb}$) and the between-bottle standard variation ($s_{bb}$) were 1.7~3.7% of assigned value according to the requirement of the ISO guide 35. And, the uncertainty ($u^*{_{bb}}$) due to inhomogeneity was 0.8~1.1% for all pesticides. The storage stabilities of ten-pesticides at various conditions were assessed. For all target pesticides, the slop ($b_1$) values were smaller than the corresponding values of $[t_{0.95,n-2}{\times}s(b_1)]$ specified by the ISO guide 35, indicating that there were no statistically significant decreases in the concentration of the target pesticides when the analytical reference material was stored at room temperature ($20{\sim}30^{\circ}C$) for 7 days, freezing ($-20^{\circ}C$) for 30 days and deep freezer ($-80^{\circ}C$. except for bifenthrin, fenpropathrin) for 245 days. For proficiency test by using it developed by Korea Institute of Toxicology, inter-lab test was performed with eight organization performing the residual pesticide analysis. We found that there were some different results among them. Some were assessed as questionable or unacceptable for two pesticides and one organization didn't analyze the six pesticides. From these results, this green-pepper analytical reference material containing ten-pesticides could be used as a tool for the proficiency test to improve the reliability or consistency for pesticide residue's results.

Determinants of the Ownership Structure of Franchise Systems: Theory and Evidence (프랜차이즈 시스템의 소유구조 결정요인: 이론과 증거)

  • Lim, Young-Kyun;Byun, Sook-Eun;Oh, Seung-Su
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.33-75
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    • 2011
  • The ownership structure of a franchise system is determined by the franchisor's strategic choice. A close look at the extant theories and perspectives in economics and management such as resource scarcity theory, agency theory, transaction cost analysis, and mixed ownership theory reveals that firms choose their ownership structure for the sake of economic efficiency, profit potentials, the chance of survival, and other strategic concerns. The present study, on the basis of strategic choice perspective, reviews the divergent theories of a franchise system's ownership structure and its determinants, thus providing a theoretical framework for comparing the contradictory arguments along the several critical dimensions. We also developed and tested the conflicting hypotheses regarding key determinants of ownership structure including firm's age, size, transaction-specific investments, uncertainty, and risk-sharing propensity. Using a FDD (Franchise Disclosure Document) data set of 543 Korean franchisors, we found that the years in business, the total number of employees, days of training, the inverse of the years of franchising, and the requirement of royalty payment have positive relationships with the proportion of company-owned outlets to total number of outlets. On the other hand, the proportion of company-owned outlets was found to have negative relationships with the total number of outlets and the extent of geographic dispersion of outlets, but to have no significant relationships with the initial investment required and the inverse of contract length. Based on the findings, we provide several theoretical and managerial implications for studying ownership structure of franchise systems.

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Development of the Phased Array Ultrasonic Testing Technique for Nuclear Power Plant's Small Bore Piping Socket Weld (원전 소구경 배관 소켓용접부 위상배열 초음파검사 기술 개발)

  • Yoon, Byung-Sik;Kim, Yong-Sik;Lee, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.368-375
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    • 2013
  • Failure of small bore piping welds is a recurring problem at nuclear power plants. And the socket weld cracking in small bore piping has caused unplanned plant shutdowns for repair and high economic impact on the plants. Consequently, early crack detection, including the detection of manufacturing defects, is of the utmost importance. Until now, the surface inspection methods has been applied according to ASME Section XI requirements. But the ultrasonic inspection as a volumetric method is also applying to enforce the inspection requirement. However, the conventional manual ultrasonic inspection techniques are used to detect service induced fatigue cracks. And there was uncertainty on manual ultrasonic inspection because of limited access to the welds and difficulties with contact between the ultrasonic probe and the OD(outer diameter) surface of small bore piping. In this study, phased array ultrasonic inspection technique is applied to increase inspection speed and reliability. To achieve this object, the 3.5 MHz phased array ultrasonic transducer are designed and fabricated. The manually encoded scanner was also developed to enhance contact conditions and maintain constant signal quality. Additionally inspection system is configured and inspection procedure is developed.

Evaluation and Challenges of Policy Responses to ABS (Nagoya Protocol) of Korea (우리나라 ABS(나고야의정서) 대응정책의 평가와 과제)

  • Hong, Heung-Deug;Lim, Hong-Tak;Cho, Eun Seol
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.506-529
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    • 2013
  • Nagoya protocol, alias ABS adopted in UN Convention on Biodiversity in 2010, has prompted governments in many countries to prepare strategic plans with regards to both the conservation of domestic bio-resources and the use of those with foreign origin. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of policy responses of Korean governments to ABS (Access and Benefit Sharing) and to make suggestions for a more integrative and efficient governance system for related ministries and institutions. Our analysis indicates that while most ministries have designated laws specifying various measures for the conservation of domestic bio-resources such as protected biological species or natural areas, just a couple of them have instituted measures governing the use of those resources and the benefit-sharing arising from it. We conclude that policy responses of Korean government are more focused on the conservation of bio-resources leaving the use of them ill-addressed. The study, thus, suggests that measures of 'bio-resource user country' be instituted in addition to those of 'bio-resource supplier country'. For instance, with regards to the use of bio-resources the roles and remits of related ministries had better be clarified and coordinated. The uncertainty over the explicit indication of 'place of origin' of bio-resources as a requirement of patent grant need to be cleared as well.

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Theoretical and Empirical Issues in Conducting an Economic Analysis of Damage in Price-Fixing Litigation: Application to a Transportation Fuel Market (담합관련 손해배상 소송의 경제분석에서 고려해야 할 이론 및 실증적 쟁점: 수송용 연료시장에의 적용)

  • Moon, Choon-Geol
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.187-224
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    • 2014
  • We present key issues to consider in estimating damages from price-fixing cases and then apply the procedure addressing those issues to a transportation fuel market. Among the five methods of overcharge calculation, the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method is the best. If the price equation relates the domestic price to the foreign price and the exchange rate as in the transportation fuel market, the functional form satisfying both logical consistency and modeling flexibility is the log-log functional form. If the data under analysis is of time series in nature, then the ARDL model should be the base model for each market and the regression analysis incorporating the yardstick method combines these ARDL equations to account for inter-market correlation and arrange constant terms and collusion-period dummies across component equations appropriately so as to identify the overcharge parameter. We propose a two-step test for the benchmarked market: (a) conduct market-by-market Spearman or Kendall test for randomness of the individual market price series first and (b) then conduct across-market Friedman test for homogeneity of the market price series. Statistical significance is the minimal requirement to establish the alleged proposition in the world of uncertainty. Between the sensitivity analysis and the model selection process for the best fitting model, the latter is far more important in the economic analysis of damage in price-fixing litigation. We applied our framework to a transportation fuel market and could not reject the null hypothesis of no overcharge.

Analysis of the Disposal Tunnel and Disposal Pit Spacing for the Spent Fuel Repository Layout (사용후핵연료 지하 처분장 배치를 위한 처분공 및 처분터널 간격 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Youl;Lee, Yang;Choi, Heui-Joo;Choi, Jong-Won
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.393-400
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    • 2006
  • In design of a deep geological repository for the high level wastes, it is very important that the temperature of the bentonite block should not be over $100^{\circ}C$ to maintain the integrity of the bentonite buffer block from the decay heat. In this study, for the layout of the repository to meet the requirement, the analysis of the disposal tunnel and disposal pit spacing was carried out. To do this, based on the reference repository concept, several cases of cooling times and disposal tunnel and disposal pit spacing were compared. The thermal stabilities of the disposal systems were analyzed in terms of the cooling time and spacing. The results showed that it was more desirable to determine the layout of the repository in terms of disposal pit spacing than the disposal tunnel spacing. The results of these analyses can be used in the deep geological repository design. The detailed analyses with the exact site characteristics data will reduce the uncertainty of the results.

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SI-traceable Calibration of a Transmissometer for Meteorological Optical Range (MOR) Observation (기상관측용 투과형 시정계의 국제단위계에 소급하는 교정)

  • Park, Seongchong;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Yong-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2015
  • This work demonstrates the indoor SI-traceable calibration of a transmissometer with a 75-m baseline for the measurement of visibility in MOR (Meteorological Optical Range). The calibration is performed using a set of neutral density (ND) filters (OD 0.1-2.5) and a set of high-transmission quartz glass plates (a bare quartz glass plate and antireflective-coated quartz glass plates), the collection consisting of 20 artifacts in total. The luminous transmittance values of the reference artifacts had been calibrated traceable to the KRISS spectral transmittance scale, which ranges from 0.2 % to 99.5 %. The transmissometer to be calibrated typically consists of a loosely collimated light source based on a white LED (CCT ~5000 K) and a luminous intensity detector with a CIE 1924 V(${\lambda}$) spectral response. As a result of calibration, we obtained the MOR error and its uncertainty for the transmissometer in 20 m - 40 km of MOR. Based on the results, we investigated the applicability of the calibration method and the conformity of the transmissometer to the ICAO's (International Civil Aviation Organization) accuracy requirement for meteorological visibility measurement. We expect that this work will establish the standard procedure for the SI-traceable calibration of a transmissometer.